It’s the ninth consecutive dry day in Nashville since the remnants of Katrina pulled away last Tuesday afternoon. The sunny and less humid conditions are nice, but many of us are on the lookout for rain. It looks like we’ll have to keep waiting: a slow-moving ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere will mean warm and dry weather for the forseeable future. How can we say this with certainty? Step inside…

This is the GFS computer model forecast for Friday afternoon. The map shows the 500 millibar level which is about 18,000 feet up in the atmosphere. You can see the ridge of high pressure across the Central Plains. Underneath the ridge (including here in the mid-state) it will be mostly sunny and warm on Friday afternoon.

By Monday afternoon the ridge is centered over East Tennessee. That means that our streak of quiet and dry weather will continue through early next week, at least. Until the ridge of high pressure aloft breaks down or moves eastward, don’t expect any big changes in the forecast.

ShareThis

Last week I linked to high-resolution satellite photos of Katrina’s damage along the Gulf Coast. Since then the folks at the National Geodetic Survey have added more images. If you’ve got friends or family from the affected area and you know where to look for their home, there’s a good chance you’ll be able to find it.

I found my childhood neighborhood in Slidell after a few minutes of searching. There was major flooding in the area, but judging from the picture most of the water has returned to the bayous and only some of the roofs sustained major damage.

ShareThis

Tropical Storm Ophelia remains stationary about 60 miles east-northeast of Cape Canaveral, Florida this morning. Her 11:00 AM stats:

Latitude 28.6 North, Longitude 79.6 West
Maximum sustained wind: 60 mph
No movement

From the National Hurricane Center: Rain bands with strong winds have been pushing into Florida’s east coast. Ophelia is expected to produce rain totals of 1″ to 3″ along portions of central and northern Florida and southeastern Georgia, with isolated amounts of 5″. Here’s a visible satellite loop of Tropical Storm Ophelia (it can’t be used at night).

The NHC’s official five day forecast path doesn’t take the storm very far from its current location. Ophelia may end up looping around and threatening the Southeast U.S. coast in the next week, so we’ll be watching her.

ShareThis

If you just casually pay attention to the weather during the quieter times, readings today for the most part will be the same yesterday. We as meteorologists though have to figure out the specific details. Even though you probably won’t notice, it is going to start getting warmer! We’re looking at 90 degrees this weekend. The big difference: the 90 degree heat won’t be nearly as uncomfortable as it was in July and August.

Since the humidity won’t be high, neither will our rain chances. That will be the big story into next week…the feast or famine rainfall chances over the last few months continues. If it wasn’t for Arlene, Dennis and Katrina it would have been one dry summer.

Speaking of tropical names…look at the official name list for 2005: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml We are already to Ophelia with the official peak of hurricane season upon us. Amazing to think with the other half of the season to go, we only have six names left to use! As I mentioned last week, if we do get beyond “Wilma” they will start using the Greek alphabet until the season ends.

Join me on Saturday at my “second home.” The Band of Blue Music Festival will be at Forrest High School in Chapel Hill. I’ll be introducing a large amount of live music. They’ll have plenty of activities for the kids, a dunk booth (which I will NOT partake in) and lots of great food…those folks in Chapel Hill can cook! I had a great time at this event last year and am looking forward to coming back this year. Join us!

ShareThis

Our friend, Jerry Orchanian at the Nashville National Weather Service, remembered an article he had read in National Geographic last year. It will give you a little perspective on just how evident it was that this could and eventually would happen to New Orleans.

ShareThis

The 17th St. Canal breach finally plugged on Tuesday. Photo courtesy of WWL TV, New Orleans

As you probably know from watching TV, the breach in the 17th St. Canal has finally been filled in. They are now trying to pump water out. It will be a long process.

But what went wrong?

This breach poured water in near the lakefront that made its way all the way downtown (several miles), flooding most of the city to the rooftops along the way.

Since our house was on the 17th St. Canal about 2 miles south of the breach, I have a pretty good insight.
The levee in our backyard is huge, probably 15-20 yards in width. Sheet piling (metal sheets 3-4′ wide, interlocking) are driven into it extending the levee height higher. See diagram below:

Out by the lakefront, where the breech occurred, there was very little earthen levee, leaving the sheet piling system to take all the weight of the water by itself, without the support of the huge levee around it. See 2nd digram below:

Obviously, where the breach occurred, the system was much weaker.

There still is that rumor that guy told my father about. A barge that had been tied up there, that he thinks might have crashed into the sheet piling, breaking it.

They are suspecting barges caused the breach on the Industrial Canal in east New Orleans.

To read Part One of my thoughts, click here and scroll down through the September 2005 archives.

ShareThis

As you can see from the latest forecast track via the National Hurricane Center, this storm/possible hurricane looks anything but straightforward. Slow strengthening is expected over the next few days with a movement continuing to parallel the Florida shoreline. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Every year there’s usually one or two tropical systems that do something completely out of the ordinary. Sometimes you’ll see one weaken out of nowhere, others move in very strange directions…this could be the one for 2005. Keep an eye on it, and expect the unexpected.

Our weather looks pretty quiet for the next 4 or 5 days (that includes next weekend!) A slow gradual warmup into the lower 90’s is expected with no true cool front in sight.

Two quick notes:
Beautiful pairing in the sky tonight…here’s where to look:
http://www.spaceweather.com/images2005/07sep05/skymap_north.gif

The Wheel of Fortune “Wheel Mobile” will be in town this weekend looking for contestants! On Saturday it will be at the Tennessee State Fairgrounds at Lot 4. You can go to http://www.tennesseestatefair.org/ for more details.
On Sunday it will be at Ashley Furniture in Murfreesboro.
Each day producers will start passing out applications around noon and the competition will be from 1-5 pm.

ShareThis

The National Hurricane Center is watching Tropical Depression #16 east of Florida. If this strengthens into a tropical storm it would be named Ophelia. The stats as of late morning:

Latitude 26.5 N
Longitude 78.6 W
10 miles east of Freeport Grand Bahama Island
180 miles southeast of Cape Canaveral, FL
Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph with higher gusts

Satellite loop from the Penn State e-Wall.

National Hurricane Center’s predicted path for T.D. #16.

ShareThis

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Partly to mostly sunny skies and readings in the mid 80′as will be the rule (today anyways.) There are some subtle changes on the way toward the end of the week, but it won’t be in the rain department. Slightly warmer readings will come with a touch more humidity toward the end of the week and weekend.

This is that calmer time of year where Middle Tennessee is in between the tropical systems pushing west to our south along the Gulf Coast and the jet stream moving east to our north. That relative quiet usually means one of the drier stretches of weather we have all year in September and October.

Not only do we have Maria in the open Atlantic, but now also Tropical Storm Nate. Nate is also no threat to land. There is a general area of low pressure in and around Florida which could develop over the next few days: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
If it were to strengthen to a tropical storm in the near future it would be named Ophelia.

ShareThis

First of all, I want to sincerely thank from the bottom of my heart all of you who phoned, e mailed, prayed, or even thought about my 80 year old parents and their safety. While in Louisiana with Neil Orne and Todd Dunn, the station relayed to me how many of you had expressed your concerns. You don’t know how much it meant to me.

I also want to thank the management at News 2 for allowing me to accomapny Neil and Todd to New Orleans, trailing a boat, to try to rescue my parents. Though we never ended up needing the boat, special thanks go out to Todd Dunn’s neighbor, Randy Shanks, for loaning us the boat.

As for my parents, they are now safe and sound in Pensacola, FL with my brother and his wife.

For those of you who don’t know the story, our one story house was flooded. Luckily the water came up slowly. A neighbor (a young policeman) got them out by boat and brought them to his two story house. By the next morning, the water was almost to the second floor of that house. They were brought by boat out to a marina at the lakefront (ironically) where the harbor master’s office was well above the water. From there they went to several shelters, before finally being evacuated to Baton Rouge where we could get to them. While Neil, Todd and I were on our way to Baton Rouge, my brother, who is a former Navy and Delta Airlines pilot living in Pensacola, got word from one of his “fly buddies” that thre was a charter flight from Pensacola to Baton Rouge carrying supplies. It was to return to Pensacola empty, and that my brother could rent it so my parents could ride on the plane. We were so lucky! They were exhausted, having been in the 95 degree heat and humidity for 3 days. As you know from watching TV, most were not so lucky, and they were the poorest people in the city.

After 2 days reporting from Slidell, LA (across the lake from New Orleans and over the “twin spans” bridges which were knocked out), we were allowed into New Orleans. We ended up at the staging area on I-10 and Causeway Blvd in Metarie, where evacuees were being taken to by helicopter and bus, before being bused out to other cities. This is where it really got to me. Children and babies were crying, the people, including 75-85 year olds were standing in the heat (this is Thursday, now 4 days in), and people needed insulin and other medications. People were begging us to use our cell phones to try to contact relatives. They had no idea where they would be taken. We let as many as we could use our cell phones (which only occasionally worked). For those who couldn’t get through, Todd took down names and numbers of relatives and contacted them later that night when the phones were up again. God bless him.

What I have to say next may be controversial.

As I mentioned above, most of these people were the poorest in New Orleans. Knowing how much “easier” my parents had it, and being a news person sitting in an air conditioned RV, I felt guilty that I was a “well to do white person”. I know that race is something I should avoid here, but it was staring me in the face point blank in my hometown. One little old lady who had a retarded grandson with her (having occasional seizures) told me that they were being treated like criminals. An African American news photogropher from Louisiana (working for a Los Angeles TV station) said that because of the looting and gunfire by some, all black people were being lumped in the same boat and treated the same.

At the same time, it is hard to criticize the ones who were rescuing the people. Under extremely difficult circumstances, they were doing a good job. They were finally getting them out. Helicoptors were bringing people in from roof tops, buses were bringing in the people who had been stranded on the overpassess. They were getting water and food. This was an immense operation, and despite what I said above, I’ve lightened up on some of my criticism of the authorities.

Another interesting subject, and at this time is strictly rumor:

When my parents were being rescued, they were temporarily staged on a bridge right next to the breach on the 17th Street Canal which caused the flood in New Orleans. He and other evacuees were watching the helicoptors attempt to drop those large sand bags. One man (another evacuee) told my father he lived nearby and crossed that bridge every day. He said they had been doing construction on the bridge and that a barge had been tied up nearby for quite awhile, and that it was still there the day before the hurricane. When the break in the levee occurred, he heard a loud boom, and then the water roared into his house. He thinks that the barge broke loose and crashed into the levee, causing the breach. This is strictly hearsay at this time, but it sounds interesting. I have searched the video being shown of the breach on TV for a barge, and have not seen one. However, it could have floated away in the flood. Maybe we’ll here more about this in the future.

Two other points: East and southeast suburbs of New Orleans (St. Bernard, Chalmette, Arabi) had severe flooding from the Industrial Canal. Unlike most of New Orleans, that water came up strong and fast. There may be more fatalities there than anywhere else in the New Orleans area. And the Mississippi Gulf Coast? The water was actually higher than Category 5 Camille in 1969.

I’ve got so much more to talk about, there will be a part 2 in the future. Until then, please continue to pray for all the people affected by this terrible disaster.

Davis Nolan

ShareThis