Our worry today has been that after the morning storms leave, that the sun would come out and warm us to the 70s causing a chance for severe storms this afternoon.  So far, the cloud cover lingering over Middle Tennessee has kept the temperature in the low 60s, keeping storm chances down.  However, there is a clearing line that may reach Nashville around 3pm this afternoon.  Our hope is that it will be too late to warm things up.  However, I can’t rule out a few afternoon storms developing once the sun returns that could be strong or severe.

Then there is another system that should bring storms back into the area Friday morning through mid day.  This could bring us some hail producing thunderstorms that also could contain some damaging winds.  However, once again, temperatures may be cool enough to keep the storms from getting too severe.  Severe weather chances increase in our southeastern counties on Friday morning.

We are still looking at possibly two rounds of storms on Thursday:

1) In the morning, crossing the Tennessee River in the neighborhood of 3-4am and into Nashville 5-7am.  This first area of storms may be more of a hail threat.  Temperatures will be running around 53 degrees when the storms arrive, and that’s a little cool for tornadoes.  However, 1″ hail is not out of the question.  I can’t rule out some gusty winds and certainly some lightning and thunder to wake you up.  If there are damaging winds from that first line, I suspect it will be in west Middle Tennessee.

2) There may be some more storms developing in the mid day to mid afternoon time period when temperatures are in the low 70s.  If this line develops, it could have damaging winds, hail, and possible tornadoes.

First of all, this evening is not a concern.  The first round of storms won’t be here until the early morning hours of Thursday.   A rough ETA for that first round would be well after midnight crossing the Tennessee River around 3am and making its way to Nashville in the 4-6am time period.  The Storm Prediction Center has a “slight risk” for severe storms from Arkansas to just near Nashville for the first round.  After that passes by, the sun should come out and heat temperatures to the low 70s while dew points remain in the low to mid 50s.  We think that during the mid day to mid afternoon hours, the second round of thunderstorms could develop, and if it does, it could be the stronger of the two (although either could prompt some watches and warnings.  Below is an excerpt from The Storm Prediction Center’s Day 2 Outlook.

…MIDWEST/LWR OH RVR VLY TO THE TN RVR VLY…
   BANDS/CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE ERN PLAINS TODAY WILL
   CONTINUE ENE EARLY IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
   WITHIN A STRENGTHENING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME.  ISOLD STORMS
   MAY YIELD HAIL GIVEN THE EXPECTED STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. 
  
   PRIMARY SVR CONCERN WILL EVOLVE MID-LATE AFTN IN WAKE OF THIS
   ACTIVITY AND ALONG THE SFC OCCLUSION.  HERE…A TONGUE OF LWR 50S
   SFC DEW POINT WILL EXIST BENEATH A NEWD ADVANCING DRY SLOT/PLUME OF
   VERY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES.  SFC HEATING WILL BOOST INSTABILITY
   AND RESULT IN ADDITIONAL LOW-TOPPED VARIETY STG/SVR TSTMS OVER
   PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/LWR OH RVR VLY TO THE TN RVR VLY.  ISOLD SVR
   HAIL AND BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE SVR
   RISKS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.