NOAA released an updated hurricane forecast yesterday (August 8th). Their outlook for the Atlantic remains above average but is not quite as grim as the forecast released in late May. There have already been 3 named storms this season (Alberto, Beryl, Chris) but no hurricanes just yet. It’s important to remember that the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season isn’t until early September, when ocean water temperatures are the warmest. You can read the full report here, but the nuts and bolts of the updated predictions are below:

Named storms (tropical storms or hurricanes): 12 - 15 (average is 10)
Hurricanes: 7 - 9 (average is 6)
Major hurricanes (Category 3+): 3 - 4 (average is 2)

NOAA’s reasoning for an above-average season include the continuation of the multi-decadal signal (increased tropical activity since 1995 expected to continue), warmer sea surface temperatures, lower vertical wind shear, reduced sea level pressure and a more favorable easterly jet out of Africa, where many tropical systems are born.

Tropical Storm Chris could strengthen to Hurricane Chris by tomorrow morning. At 10:00 am CDT maximum sustained winds were 65 mph. If it reaches 74 mph we’ll have the first hurricane of the 2006 Atlantic season (which runs through November 30th). Check out the visible satellite loop to see the tightly-wound Chris just east of Puerto Rico. The five day forecast path from the NHC brings Chris toward the southern tip of the Florida Peninsula by Sunday night or Monday morning. We’ll watch Chris very closely…if the forecast track holds up the Gulf Coast will need to be on alert next week.

Tropical Storm Chris has developed near the Leeward Islands. Sustained winds are 40 mph and movement is west-northwest at 10 mph. The current forecast track calls for the tropical storm to approach the southern tip of the Florida peninsula by the end of the weekend or early next week. Check out the visible satellite loop of Tropical Storm Chris, courtesy of the Penn State e-Wall. For curiosity’s sake…the next few names on the list are Debby, Ernesto and Florence.

Have you heard about Beryl? We haven’t mentioned her much on this blog because she’ll have no influence at all on the weather in the mid-state. Beryl is now a tropical storm located 150 miles south-southeast of New York City. She’s moving northeast at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 60 mph. The center of storm is expected to pass the southeast corner of Massachusetts tonight or tomorrow morning. The Penn State e-Wall has a nice visible satellite loop of ol’ Beryl. According to the National Hurricane Center, it’s pronounced like Milton Berle. Lisa tells me that any ladies named Beryl would tend to disagree!

At 10:00 pm Alberto remains a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph. Movement is northeast at 10 mph and that will continue until landfall Tuesday morning somewhere between Apalachicola and Cedar Key. Alberto may strengthen to a hurricane (maximum sustained winds of 74 mph) but either way will bring a widespread 4″ to 8″ of rain to northern and central Florida and southern Georgia. Like most tropical systems, isolated tornadoes are possible (check for active watches from the Storm Prediction Center). Storm surges of 8 to 10 feet will impact the effected coastal areas. Get the latest from the National Hurricane Center.

At 4:00 pm Tropical Storm Alberto had maximum sustained winds of 70 mph with a general movement northeast at 10 mph. Landfall is expected Tuesday morning between Apalachicola and Cedar Key. If Alberto’s winds increase to 74 mph we’ll have a Category 1 hurricane on our hands. Whether or not that happens…rain amounts of 4″ to 8″ are expected across much of The Sunshine State with an 8 to 10 foot storm surge at the coast. Head over to the National Hurricane Center to read more.

Tropical Depression #1 has strengthend into Tropical Storm Alberto in the Gulf of Mexico. Landfall is currently predicted just north of Tampa Bay on Florida’s Gulf Coast early Tuesday. Click the extended entry for details and a forecast map from the National Hurricane Center.
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I’m watching the Gulf of Mexico and Tropical Depression #1 but there’s been little change in the past 24 hours. The National Hurricane Center’s forecast track strengthens the system to a tropical storm (would be Alberto) and carries it north of Tampa Bay by Monday night and early Tuesday.

1000 AM CDT POSITION…21.5 N…85.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB.

AT THIS TIME…THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY RAINFALL. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA…WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS COULD CAUSE DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND HAS REPORTED 22.72 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS… AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

Head over to the National Hurricane Center to view the predicted three day and five day forecast paths. As discussed the past couple of days, Florida’s Big Bend area seems the likely U.S. coastal target sometime late Monday or early Tuesday…but that is not set in stone. If maximum sustained winds reach 39 mph we’ll have Tropical Storm Alberto; could happen later today.

I’ve mentioned this a few days running: we’re watching the western Caribbean for tropical development today. The Canadian model jumped on this solution a few days ago and now other models are following suit. There’s not 100% agreement…but the general model consensus calls for a tropical system to head toward Florida’s Gulf Coast sometime early next work week, maybe Monday or Tuesday. The National Hurricane Center still hasn’t mentioned anything specific, but the next 24 hours will be interesting to watch. If this system comes together and reaches tropical storm strength (one minute sustained winds of 39 mph or greater) we’ll call it Alberto. Other names for the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season (and beyond) are here. No guarantee Alberto comes together this weekend…but it’s a distinct possibility.