Florence has sustained max winds of 80 mph and may strengthen before passing very close to Bermuda tomorrow morning. More from the National Hurricane Center.

UPDATE: I want to mention that climatologically, today is the height of hurricane season. Ocean water is warmest on September 10th because it takes time for water to respond to summer’s warmth. Hurricane heavyweight Bill Murray at Birmingham’s ABC 33/40 looks back on this date in tropical history.

Tropical Depression #6 has strengthend to Tropical Storm Florence this morning. Current location is 935 miles east of the Lesser Antilles around latitude 17.3 north and longitude 47.3 west. Here’s the latest infrared satellite loop; Florence is out in the central Atlantic Ocean and doesn’t pose a direct threat to land. The National Hurricane Center’s forecast track strengthens the tropical storm into a hurricane by Friday morning and curves it northward between the Bahamas and Bermuda. The Mid-Atlantic coast and points north will have to watch this one, although current model guidance doesn’t suggest a direct impact in the U.S. As we learned from Ernesto, you can’t always take long-range tropical forecasts to the bank so we’ll continue to monitor ol’ Flo.

Tropical Depression #6 had developed in the Atlantic Ocean, about 1300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The forecast track from the National Hurricane Center curves this disturbance away from the Gulf of Mexico, and it will be fighting some wind shear and dry air in the process.

Last night the National Hurricane Center issued its final public advisory on Tropical Depression Ernesto. Ernesto will bring wet weather to New England today, but the worst is over. Watching the Penn State game yesterday and the continuous U.S. Open tennis delays the past few days, you get a feel for Ernesto’s effects (chilly rain, more a nuisance than anything else). Not so for the more than half a million people that lost power in the Mid-Atlantic states… As we mentioned on the blog before Ernesto came ashore the biggest potential problem was the flooding rains. That did occur in some spots, courtesy of the nearly 10″ of rain that fell in parts of North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland. Click below for a list of impressive rain totals…
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At 1:00 pm CDT Ernesto was still a tropical storm, but with minor strengthening could reach minimal hurricane status before landfall late today near just north of Myrtle Beach near the South Carolina and North Carolina border. Current location is 90 miles southeast of Charleston and 180 miles south-southwest of Wilmington. Max sustained winds were 70 mph (74 mph is a Category 1) with some higher gusts. Here’s the visible loop and here’s the infrared loop so you can keep tabs on Ernesto. Regardless of its classification, isolated tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina through tonight. The largest threat will be flooding; a widespread 4″ to 8″ is expected with some areas receiving around a foot of rain.

Lots of action in the tropics, and it’s not just Ernesto. Here’s a round-up of activity world-wide, from strongest to weakest:

Category 5 Super Typhoon Ioke
In the Pacific Ocean
Sustained winds of 155 mph, max gusts 190 mph
Passed over Wake Island (elevation 20 feet) with reported 40 foot storm surge
More from ABC 33/40 in Birmingham

Category 3 Hurricane John
In the eastern Pacific off Mexican Coast
Sustained winds of 126 mph, max gusts 155 mph
Will hit Mexico’s southern Baja California peninsula tomorrow, including popular resort town of Cabo San Lucas

Category 1 Hurricane Kristy
West of Hurricane John in Pacific Ocean over open water
Sustained winds of 75 mph, max gusts 92 mph

Tropical Storm Ernesto
105 miles south-southeast of Charleston, SC
225 miles south-southwest of Wilmington, NC
Sustained winds of 60 mph, max gusts 69 mph
Landfall expected near SC/NC coast tonight
3′ to 5′ (foot) storm surge expected
4″ to 8″ of rain (isolated spots to 12″) up and down the Mid-Atlantic states
Flash flooding will be an issue in the Appalachian Mountains the next couple of days
Forecast track from the NHC takes it to Pennsylvania and New York as a tropical depression by Saturday

Ernesto was upgraded to a category 1 hurricane shortly after 4:00 am CDT this morning. Maximum sustained winds were measured at 75 mph. The upper level trough that will bring Middle Tennessee cooler weather by the middle of next week is a player in Ernesto’s forecast path; the latest model guidance (after the break) brings Ernesto to the eastern Gulf so Florida will have to be attentive over the next several days. That’s not to say others along the Gulf Coast can let their guard down yet…when it comes to forecasting tropical activity, it ain’t over till it’s over. We’ll hope for Ernesto to weaken as it crosses Cuba, because water temperatures in the Gulf are currently in the middle to upper 80s. That’s plenty warm for intensification, but not quite the 90 degree water that allowed Katrina to “explode” in the Gulf this time last year.
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The Hurricane Hunters will fly to the eastern Caribbean this afternoon to investigate a tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands (visible loop). Depending on what they find, this cluster of thunderstorms could become Tropical Depression #5 or Tropical Storm Ernesto later today or tonight. The model consensus takes this storm into the Caribbean and hints that it could head into the Gulf of Mexico next week. While Tropical Storm Debby spirals over the middle of the Atlantic Ocean to little fanfare, we’ll watch this tropical wave closely and keep you posted.

Tropical Storm Debby is in the eastern Atlantic and doesn’t pose a direct threat to the United States. Maximum sustained winds are around 50 mph and she’s moving west-northwest at 17 mph. Here’s the latest visible satellite image and here’s Debby’s predicted five day path. You probably won’t hear too much about Debby on the blog over the next few days, unless there are changes in her forecast track or intensity.

You may have heard about the potential for tropical activity off of the Southeast U.S. coast over the past few days. We’ve been watching that area for a possible tropical depression, but at this point in time it doesn’t seem likely. You can read the latest discussion from the National Hurricane Center here. This has been a very quiet Atlantic hurricane season thus far, but it’s not a wash just yet. While nothing looks good for tropical development in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico at the moment…we’ve still got ample time left in the 2006 season (runs through November 30th). We’ll hope for no hurricanes at all, but it’s important to recall that the height of hurricane season doesn’t occur until September 10th, which coincides with the time of warmest sea surface temperatures. For the time being…we’re in the clear and that’s great news.