Watch Houston TV Live
KHOU is doing an excellent job in their coverage of Ike:
Hurricane Ike hits as strong Category 2
Ike blew ashore near Galveston Bay with maximum winds of 110 mph (strong Category 2) at 2:10 AM.
The eye of the storm passed just east of Houston, where 4 million people are without power Saturday morning.
The storm will move through eastern Texas today and reach western Arkansas tonight. Showers and thundershowers from Ike should reach Middle Tennessee Sunday afternoon/evening.
Behind Ike, it will feel like Fall Monday through the rest of the work/school week. Lingering low clouds may prompt an isolated sprinkle on Monday, but look for highs in the upper 70s and low humidity to dominate the week’s forecast.
This Is Serious Business For Galveston, Houston, Beuamont, & Lake Charles
Having already seen flooding from the Florida panhandle to Louisiana today with the wide circulation of Hurricane Ike, I worry about the affects along the Texas/SW Louisiana coastline when the storm makes landfall. We have learned that larger storms have more storm surge despite their Category (Katrina only a Category 3). Therefore, although the Hurricane Center as of 10pm is forecasting a Cat 2, size will matter.Â
It is going to be gridlock out of Houston tomorrow (despite contra-flow on the interstates); a lot like Hurricane Rita when people were stuck on the interstate for 1-2 days. That was not fun. It won’t be fun either for folks who stay, with 3-4 days or more anticipated without electricity or water. I have been there, done that, Hurricane Betsy, New Orleans, 1965; it wasn’t easy (actually no power for 2 weeks in ‘65).Â
But don’t even ask my 80 year old parents about Katrina, New Orleans, 2005.Â
I hope that the folks in Texas take Ike seriously, especially those who live near the water. Get to higher ground.  If you are not near the water, have patience in the 7-14 days following the storm, waiting for electricity and water, as well as any kind of normalcy to be restored.
Latest Tracks For Ike Trending Farther West
For Middle Tennessee weather please read my previous entry.
The “squiggly lines” you see on the satellite picture above from Stormtracker are what we call a “spaghetti plot”. Each line represents the track of Hurricane Ike from individual computer models. We call it a spaghetti plot because the lines look like a bunch of spaghetti. Notice how most of them trend towards Texas and southwest Louisiana. We are still around 5 days out, so a lot could still change (just yesterday, one of the most reliable models had Ike hitting where Gustav made landfall).
However, because of the consensus of the models seen above, the latest forecast from the Hurricane Center has it trending towards the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and Texas. I am sure that emergency planners in Houston are quite wide eyed right now and are making appropriate plans. If Houston is threatened, I imagine gas prices will be spiking again.
Category 4 Hurricane Ike
Hurricane Ike is a Category 4 storm with maximum winds of 135 mph. Ike will pass over Cuba tonight through tomorrow; the mountains of Cuba should weaken the storm to a Category 1 as it enters the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. The National Hurricane Center forecast shows Ike strengthening to a Category 3 storm by Friday as it moves into the Central Gulf of Mexico. The spaghetti plot (second image) shows that the models haven’t converged on a single solution yet; as a result, the exact landfall location will be tough to predict. All Gulf Coast interests from Texas to the Florida Panhandle should keep a close eye on this storm (especially Louisiana, in this forecaster’s opinion).
Hanna ashore, Ike on the way…
Tropical Storm Hanna made landfall near the South Carolina/North Carolina border at 3:20 AM Eastern time.
A torndao watch is in effect this morning for parts of North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland.
Rainfall totals of 4″ to 6″ are expected from North Carolina up the East Coast, all the way through New England. Isolated totals of 10″ are possible.
Next up on the hurricane agenda is Ike, which should enter the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.
Ike is currently a Category 3 storm with maximum winds of 115 mph. It will brush the northern side of Cuba on Monday (at the same time impacting the Bahamas and the Florida Keys). The current forecast track takes Ike into the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Tuesday as a Category 3. It’s too early for a precise landfall forecast, but by next weekend the Gulf Coast will brace for another landfalling storm.
New Orleans: “MRGO Must Go!”
I am sure you saw the waves “overtopping” the floodwalls along what is called The Industrial Canal” in eastern New Orleans (adjacent to the Ninth Ward). Luckily, they held. But the lesson has been learned again (and again, and again). The Mississippi River Gulf Outlet Canal (MRGO) must go.
Some reporters incorrectly said the water was coming into the canal from Lake Pontchartrain. It was actually being shoved up the MRGO (and some from the Intercoastal Canal) by the east and southeasterly winds from the storm. If you look at the close up graphic below, you see those two waterways converge into one, intersecting the Industrial Canal at almost a 90 degree angle, where all the water piled up.Â
Luckily the water in Lake Pontchartrain was lower, so the water actually flowed northward into the lake. Otherwise, there could have been a real problem. This caused levee failures during Hurricane Betsy in 1965, Katrina in 2005, and almost again yesterday. If a storm that passes 60-70 miles southwest of New Orleans can push that much water into The Industrial Canal, just think what would happen if it had come closer!
The canal is now closed to shipping, and plans are for a gate is to be built at its mouth to keep the water from coming up MRGO. That may still be years from now. The sooner the better or this problem is not going to go away!
By the way, the worries about the “West Bank” and the Harvey Canal were legitimate (SEE PREVIOUS POST), but luckily the water never rose high enough to breech the levees there. A gate along that canal helped. Had the storm been closer, stronger, or lingered longer that could have been a major problem for the other side of the Mississippi River from downtown New Orleans.
Gustav landfall expected around midday
AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.8 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES... 275 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 255 MILES...410 KM...SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES...350 KM. BOOTHVILLE LOUISIANA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 50 MPH...80 KM/HR. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES. AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE COAST. GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...ARKANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY.
Category 3 Gustav
Gustav is a category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. The National Hurricane Center says Gustav could strengthen to a category 4 storm before hitting western Cuba later today and tonight. Not good for those folks.
The forecast track as it pertains to the Central Gulf Coast has not changed. Look for landfall as a category 3 storm on Monday night, most likely around the central Louisiana coast. A category 3 storm has maximum sustained winds of 111 to 130 mph. The current forecast track places New Orleans in the right-front quadrant of the storm; meaning strong on-shore winds and a big storm surge (read more). My relatives from Louisiana aren’t taking any chances: they’re heading to Tennessee tomorrow.
Hurricane Katrina Anniversary; Gustav Update
Three years ago today, Hurricane Katrina made landfall in Louisiana and southern Mississippi. Lisa was on duty at the station to handle the storm. I came down with a nasty stomach bug that rendered me useless. Davis was tracking the storm, but more importantly trying to reach his parents in New Orleans. He would later take off for Louisiana with Neil Orne and Todd Dunn to track them down (after much tribulation, his parents safely made it to Baton Rouge). At mid-morning, the networks claimed that New Orleans had dodged a bullet, suffering wind damage but not much else. Later in the day we learned that many of the levees had broken and flood waters were rising. For those with ties to the city and surrounding areas, August 29th 2005 will be a tough morning to forget.
With those memories, we turn our attention to Tropical Storm Gustav, currently churning in the central Caribbean with winds of 65 mph. The forecast track has not changed over the last 24 hours; the storm should strengthen to a Category 3 in the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall along the Central Gulf Coast. Right now the most likely spot for landfall is the area between Lafayette and New Orleans, after midnight on Monday. The storm is still more than 1,000 miles away, so the forecast track is subject to change. No doubt folks along the Gulf Coast will be watching.
