Don’t forget to set those clocks forward one hour before going to bed tonight, or you will be late for church or wherever else you may be going in the morning.

Spring like weather is on hold this weekend as a stubborn and very slow moving upper low persists across the mid state.  Temperatures will get no higher than the upper 40s on Sunday afternoon with off and on rain showers continuing.  Tonight’s lows will be in the low 40s, so there is certainly no worry about any freezing precip, despite how chilly it feels outside.

Our worry today has been that after the morning storms leave, that the sun would come out and warm us to the 70s causing a chance for severe storms this afternoon.  So far, the cloud cover lingering over Middle Tennessee has kept the temperature in the low 60s, keeping storm chances down.  However, there is a clearing line that may reach Nashville around 3pm this afternoon.  Our hope is that it will be too late to warm things up.  However, I can’t rule out a few afternoon storms developing once the sun returns that could be strong or severe.

Then there is another system that should bring storms back into the area Friday morning through mid day.  This could bring us some hail producing thunderstorms that also could contain some damaging winds.  However, once again, temperatures may be cool enough to keep the storms from getting too severe.  Severe weather chances increase in our southeastern counties on Friday morning.

We are still looking at possibly two rounds of storms on Thursday:

1) In the morning, crossing the Tennessee River in the neighborhood of 3-4am and into Nashville 5-7am.  This first area of storms may be more of a hail threat.  Temperatures will be running around 53 degrees when the storms arrive, and that’s a little cool for tornadoes.  However, 1″ hail is not out of the question.  I can’t rule out some gusty winds and certainly some lightning and thunder to wake you up.  If there are damaging winds from that first line, I suspect it will be in west Middle Tennessee.

2) There may be some more storms developing in the mid day to mid afternoon time period when temperatures are in the low 70s.  If this line develops, it could have damaging winds, hail, and possible tornadoes.

First of all, this evening is not a concern.  The first round of storms won’t be here until the early morning hours of Thursday.   A rough ETA for that first round would be well after midnight crossing the Tennessee River around 3am and making its way to Nashville in the 4-6am time period.  The Storm Prediction Center has a “slight risk” for severe storms from Arkansas to just near Nashville for the first round.  After that passes by, the sun should come out and heat temperatures to the low 70s while dew points remain in the low to mid 50s.  We think that during the mid day to mid afternoon hours, the second round of thunderstorms could develop, and if it does, it could be the stronger of the two (although either could prompt some watches and warnings.  Below is an excerpt from The Storm Prediction Center’s Day 2 Outlook.

…MIDWEST/LWR OH RVR VLY TO THE TN RVR VLY…
   BANDS/CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE ERN PLAINS TODAY WILL
   CONTINUE ENE EARLY IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
   WITHIN A STRENGTHENING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME.  ISOLD STORMS
   MAY YIELD HAIL GIVEN THE EXPECTED STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. 
  
   PRIMARY SVR CONCERN WILL EVOLVE MID-LATE AFTN IN WAKE OF THIS
   ACTIVITY AND ALONG THE SFC OCCLUSION.  HERE…A TONGUE OF LWR 50S
   SFC DEW POINT WILL EXIST BENEATH A NEWD ADVANCING DRY SLOT/PLUME OF
   VERY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES.  SFC HEATING WILL BOOST INSTABILITY
   AND RESULT IN ADDITIONAL LOW-TOPPED VARIETY STG/SVR TSTMS OVER
   PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/LWR OH RVR VLY TO THE TN RVR VLY.  ISOLD SVR
   HAIL AND BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE SVR
   RISKS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

We’ll see scattered showers and t’showers on Wednesday as temperatures warm to the upper 60s to near 70 with a south wind 15-25mph.  But we are keeping an eye on the possibility of a few strong storms early Thursday morning through the mid day time period.  The GFS model above shows isobars (I drew in the front in blue) for noon Thursday.  The bottom panel shows 6 hour precipitation ending at noon.  Temperatures should touch the low 70s then, and our dew points should reach the low to mid 50s.  Although The Storm Prediction Center (at this time) does not have us in the risk for severe weather, we could still see some strong to severe storms the first half of the day on Thursday (possibly late Wednesday night, as well).

We will see some scattered showers overnight tonight with a few rumbles of thunder in the southern counties.  On Wednesday, as temperatures warm to the upper 60s to near 70, we’ll have some scattered t’showers in the mix along with some intermittent sunshine.  We have our eyes on a system in the southwest corner of the country that will “round under” the stationary system in the nation’s mid section.  With warmer temperatures in place, we could see a few strong storms late Wednesday night through the first part of Thursday, with possibly a few more storms Thursday afternoon.  It still doesn’t look like an all out widespread severe weather situation, but I would not be surprise if we have a few strong or severe storms in the mix during that time period.

The official high topped out at 73 degrees on Monday afternoon, the warmest since November 15, 2009 when it was 72.  Now we have rain on the way.  Predictor shows it crossing the Tennessee River during the early morning hours of Tuesday and making it to Nashville by mid morning.

By Tuesday night, we may hear a few rumbles of thunder, but better chances for thunderstorms come our way Wednesday, especially Wednesday night through Thursday morning when we may see a few strong storms.   It doesn’t like like an all out widespread severe weather event, but I wouldn’t rule out a few warnings.

The last time we were 72 degrees was November 15, 2009.  It sure feels nice.  But you know that when it warms up this time of the year that rain is not too far behind. 

Stormtracker shows the rain already pushing from Oklahoma into Arkansas.  We expect that to arrive here Tuesday morning between sunrise and lunchtime.  No thunderstorms in the initial rain area, but we could see some thunderstorms on Wednesday, especially Wednesday night into early Thursday.  Although it probably won’t be a widespread severe weather outbreak then, we could see a few warnings issued during that time period.  We will keep you posted as we get closer.  Right now, the Storm Prediction Center keeps the chance for severe weather to our southwest.

It’s getting to be that time of the year when we could see thunderstorms when the temperatures warm up.

The above maps are from the GFS model with surface isobars on top and 6 hour precip from midnight to 6am Thursday.  As you can see, we will have low pressure passing just to our northwest.  Many times that could make for a set up for severe weather.  However, our forecasted dew points are only in the low 50s which will be marginal for instability.  In addition, the strong jet stream action will be along the Gulf Coast.  Therefore, I don’t see this as being a widespread severe weather event.  HOWEVER, we should see thunderstorms, and some of those could be strong, so we will keep you posted as the week wears on.  I would not rule out a few warnings late Wednesday night through early Thursday morning.

The warming trend continued today as temperatures crept into the 60s.  The high on Sunday topped out at 63 in Nashville.  We have a few scattered showers to our north that may affect our northeastern counties overnight like Macon, Clay, Jackson, Overton, Putnam, Cumberland, Fentress and Pickett.  Temperatures for once will be well above freezing, so it will only be rain in those counties.  The rest of us will remain dry.

On Monday, some morning clouds will give way to some sunshine with continued mild temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 60s for highs.   If you click on the 7 Day Forecast to the right, you will see that rain chances begin on Tuesday, and hang around much of this week.  We should see some thunderstorms in the mix on Wednesday, Wednesday night, and Thursday morning.  We will keep you posted on what to expect from those storms later this week.  I’ll write an entry on that later tonight.