First of all, this evening is not a concern. The first round of storms won’t be here until the early morning hours of Thursday. A rough ETA for that first round would be well after midnight crossing the Tennessee River around 3am and making its way to Nashville in the 4-6am time period. The Storm Prediction Center has a “slight risk” for severe storms from Arkansas to just near Nashville for the first round. After that passes by, the sun should come out and heat temperatures to the low 70s while dew points remain in the low to mid 50s. We think that during the mid day to mid afternoon hours, the second round of thunderstorms could develop, and if it does, it could be the stronger of the two (although either could prompt some watches and warnings. Below is an excerpt from The Storm Prediction Center’s Day 2 Outlook.
…MIDWEST/LWR OH RVR VLY TO THE TN RVR VLY…
BANDS/CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE ERN PLAINS TODAY WILL
CONTINUE ENE EARLY IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
WITHIN A STRENGTHENING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME. ISOLD STORMS
MAY YIELD HAIL GIVEN THE EXPECTED STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES.
PRIMARY SVR CONCERN WILL EVOLVE MID-LATE AFTN IN WAKE OF THIS
ACTIVITY AND ALONG THE SFC OCCLUSION. HERE…A TONGUE OF LWR 50S
SFC DEW POINT WILL EXIST BENEATH A NEWD ADVANCING DRY SLOT/PLUME OF
VERY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. SFC HEATING WILL BOOST INSTABILITY
AND RESULT IN ADDITIONAL LOW-TOPPED VARIETY STG/SVR TSTMS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/LWR OH RVR VLY TO THE TN RVR VLY. ISOLD SVR
HAIL AND BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE SVR
RISKS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
