Look at the arctic air mass dropping southward!
First of all, we still don’t see any way around a major winter storm for Nashville and Middle Tennessee on Friday through Saturday morning.
Yes, we expect a good snow accumulation, but, as we have been saying all week, our fear is that before we get the snow, this very cold arctic air air mass moving our way undercuts warmer air aloft creating a sleet/freezing rain situation first. As we have also been saying, the farther south you are located, the bigger and longer lasting chance for the sleet freezing rain situation. However, we have been showing maps that try to break those situations down to the county. I should warn you that those lines could end up north or south by 25-40 miles. We are taking global models and trying to break things down to a county resolution! The same thing goes for the timing. Most models are saying 6-9am, but it could be as early as 4am or as late as 10am. So take away the generalities.
The bottom line is our snow could start as sleet and/or freezing rain before changing to a major accumulating snow.
No matter how/where the sleet freezing rain situation occurs, it will eventually turn to all snow (although some of our southern counties may stay mostly in the sleet and freezing rain). Below are the accumulations expected by Saturday morning:
never understood the bread and milk thing…now if your talking beer and wings….
I just hope all of this starts before I go into work. I’d hate to get stuck driving home in this mess.
This is confusing how is it going to be rain just south of franklin when the high is like 33 and the low tonight is like 28
Wow! I just looked at some of the terminal aerodrome forecasts for the State. Both Jackson and Memphis, at some point during the day tomorrow, are forecasted to have HEAVY snow with CBs. If none of you have experienced thunder and lighting with snow, then you are in for a treat if that transpires for our area. I’m just guessing, but I would say snow from CBs is usually falling at a rate of at least 2-4 inches per hour. I have experienced it twice in my life and it is amazing, to say the least, to see it lightning and hear it thundering with snow falling. I hope we see it here in Nashville.
I did once as a teenager in 79 in St. Louis. Started out as a thunderstorm and ended as a snowstorm. The wildest non-tornatic event I ever saw.
Snowman, where did you find this information?
ajster412,
Go to http://www.aviationweather.gov. On the left side, you will select “TAF/FA,” then “TAF Request Forms.” In the box, type the identifier for the airport (ex., Memphis is KMEM, Jackson is KMKL, Nashville is KBNA) and then select “Get TAFs.” This is the format that weather forecasts are disseminated for aviation purposes. Even though it is for aviation, TAFs are forecasts for the weather at the surface where you and I live.
Snowman,
Looks like the system is not going to be that impressive in Wiliamson County.
I also wonder where that accumulation is really going to fall.
snowman - I grew up in Alabama and lived in KY for awhile about 20 years ago and the very first real snow storm that I saw included thunder and lightning. It was very cool. I didn’t realize at the time just how rare it was.
Well its 2:30 and ….,,,, wait for ir…,, wait for it…,, NOTHING!!!!! I thought we would see something by now. Jeez!!!! I am not going to be a killjoy nor will I call it a bust. I refuse to look like a jerk but, it appears its all just hitting dry air and not making it to the ground and temp. in Dickson is rising. I guess bring on the rain. I feel heart broken in a way. I will be happy if we see a flake I guess. I thought it was going to be impressive. I have seen one snow here of 3 inches in 5 yrs here. JUST DEPRESSED NOW. Do not think I am degrading anyone at News 2. Your job is so very hard predicting this type of weather. On the other hand if it is stormy or going to be stormy ya’ll are the greatest. Thank you Lisa,Davis, Justin,Jeff and everyone else for all your great forecasting. Ya’ll save lives and are a blessing to us all. Your all awesome.