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OK… so we now that if the cold air doesn’t get here in time, there will be no snow. But what if the cold air gets here for all of the precip. How much snow would be possible? 8 in? 12in? more…?
Would be nice LOL. Just keep out of the freezing rain zone.
Ryan use to have a site where you could see the updated models, all together running 72 hours out that would give you a pretty good idea what to expect.
What are the chances that the Cold air from Canada pushes the moisture from the low too far south for us to get any precip at all?
Surprised they even tried to put an amount on it at this time. While the general track looks good for us, there is little model agreement on QPF. I wouldn’t expect the upper ranges for precip amounts in some models, but to suggest that 2-4 in “isn’t out of the question” seems to a little too conservative. Maybe better yet not to put a number on it?
Michael:
Here’s one somewhat educated guess to your question, although I’d love to hear others’ takes (especially the Channel 2 guys’): I don’t think the low could go too south. The latest model I’ve seen has a swath of snow from the Tenn-Ala border all the way to Indianapolis. I guess it could conceivably go too far north, but the path of the low is already going northeast.
My other hunch is that the precip will be here so long, it will inevitably run into sub-freezing temps. There, of course, is the chance that the precip comes early and the cold arrives late, but the models seem to be pretty consistent with this storm. As far as accumulation goes, it really is anyone’s guess. One model right now has us at 8-10″. Earlier this morning, it had us at 2-4″.
Of course, this is all hunch and supposition. Would love an expert opinion.
So where can I see these models. Can I have a link?
Here’s one:
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=OHX
There are some other links on the right side of this blog’s home page. And I’m sure Google or the search engine of your choice can lead you to others.
Here’s the latest discussion per NWS:
CURRENT FORECAST PROJECTIONS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE PREVIOUSLY,
AND MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A WINTER STORM INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY. HOWEVER, AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS INTO OUR AREA
ON THURSDAY, PRODUCING A CHANCE FOR RAIN, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
EXPECT ARCTIC FRONT TO MOVE WITH ONLY MODERATE SPEED DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY, AS LOW PRESSURE AREA REMAINS TO OUR WEST.
HOWEVER, BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, A NARROW WEDGE OF COLD, ARCTIC
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING IN THE MID STATE. SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE EXTREME NORTH
ALL DAY FRIDAY, WITH A TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARD THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT,
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW IN ALL LOCATIONS, FROM
WEST TO EAST. NORTHERN AREAS, WHICH SEE ONLY SNOW DURING THE ENTIRE
EVENT COULD GET 4+ INCHES. MEANWHILE, A BAND OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COULD PRODUCE AS MUCH AS ONE
HALF TO ONE INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS AT SOME LOCATIONS.
EXPECT DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AREA-WIDE AND A
WINTER STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOME TIME DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF THE MID STATE.
.LONG TERM…EXPECT A COLD WEEKEND TO ENSUE, AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD BY NEXT
TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
I am calling it…snow north of 40….little of anything south of 40.
It is a bust for Franklin….I knew it.
[...] Nashville WX is doing a great job making sure they don’t build up our hopes and then crush them keeping us ahead of Friday’s storm, which they have decided to call “The Ice/Snow Situation.” Your Nashvillest will be following suit, but shortening the nickname to “The Situation,” or #thesituation2010. And actually, this one does look like it could get nasty. [Nashville WX] [...]
Snow Repelent, perhaps a bit more optimision might help? Remember the cartoon character, that was always pessimistic? “we’re all doomed” lol, keep your chin up
The odds are in my favor simply due to history. Now, I want to TDOT to take necessary precautions for safety, but let’s keep calm. I do like how News 2 has been handling this event and not getting everyone too fired up. I plan on things to break up by Wednesday and as usual a downgrade of the event. Just taking the practical position.
Now, if it hits hard, everyone can take a shot at me.
ITS GOING TO GET BAD!!!! BE PREPARED
Hey, I’m not going to take a shot at you. Just having conversation. But however, an ice storm is not what we need, does your nick also come in Ice Repellent also? *grins* Hey Iceman, no ice storm please.
Snow repellant, the consequences of you being wrong are that you will be embarrassed and revealed as a moron (I’m already making that assumption, btw). The consequences for the NWS and every meteorological organization for being wrong if they say it’s NOT going to snow is that people are not prepared if their power goes out or the roads are icy. To you it’s all fun and games, but to others it really is life or death. Thank God we have talented and compassionate people, willing to put their “reputations” on the line, to help prevent people from harm in the event of a winter storm. If they’re wrong, they’re wrong and no one gets hurt; but if we use your logic and we’re wrong, then people suffer. Get a clue.
Ignore him ycartrob……he obvioiusly thinks that you can predict weather each week from history. The last time these models were this consistent over a 4 day stretch was back when we had that snow event in 2004. Now, if history plays a role in this…then that means we would see a good 2-5 inches.( using repellent’s theory of predicting )
And I could not agree anymore that meteorologist prepare people for the worst…just so they take caution. It would be terrible to see a meteorologist use history as a predicting tool in weather, and say since this and that always happens in middle Tennessee, that we will only get rain, then the next morning the roads are slick with ice and car wrecks fill the interstate ( which can lead to many deaths ).
My prediction, well, is freezing rain with snow showers. I think Davis was spot on this afternoon, stating that it is only Tuesday, and this system is just now entering the U.S. Many things can change before it actually gets here. Its a waiting game, for the most part. I am actually more worried about the freezing rain part….that stuff is not good at all!!!
If I’m not mistaken, the “Ryan’s site” that Phil56 cited showing all the models running together is at http://coolwx.com/ptype/ …
Had no idea that was Ryan’s web site!!
Great work Ryan….love all the models you provide.
It’s not Ryan’s site… he’s just the one who often points us to that link.
I think all snow repellents goal is try to be the wise guy, and if we dont get snow, then he’ll say ” oh i was right see all of you are dumb” if thats the case then get off here!
Thanks Calipence, I didn’t mean that he created it, I merely was stating that he refered to it
Thanks for posting it 
Let it snow, let it snow )
I’m not asking people to not take precautions. I told my wife to go ahead and get what we need ahead of the crowds.
I love snow so much and I always get let down. If I take the pessimistic approach, if nothing happens I am fine and if we get 8″ I’m ready to get out and play.
If I get really pumped (like I have everytime in the past) then it is just a rain event, I get really bummed.
Ok Snow Repellent, I respect your statement, just like everyone else, we have to be careful in this part of the country. Specially if they are mentioning freezing rain. Been there, done that. So just enjoy the conversations about this developing weather situation. Have a great evening
Thanks Phil
I just read the Winter Storm Watch statement from the NWS for Shelby County. Ice takes the fun out of it, but I’m not risking driving 22 miles to work. I might get a snow day!
Wonder when they are going to issue a Stom Watch here? That will make me more of a “believer”.
understandable, i probably get the most dissapointed over the continuous let downs, but lets keep up the positive attitude!
This might help keep the positive attitude:
http://myforecast.com/bin/expanded_forecast_15day.m?city=30015&zip_code=37174&metric=false
8″?!?!
seems very naccurate, but hey ill take it!!!!!
Um ajster, did I see 8 ? lol, ok then, and Snow Repelent, I saw that warning out of Shelby County, that could be devasting for Memphis. Ok folks Im out tonight, going horizontal,,,take care and may the weather gods be with you
Um oh yea, if there is going to be a warning for Nashville, I would expect it around noon tomorrow afternoon or sooner.
This model has been pretty consistent… hasn’t changed at all in the last 24 hours.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=OHX
Hmmm…we are about 48 hours from S-Day
That rain comes very close to us in this model…http://coolwx.com/ptype/
Looks like we are going to have a pretty eventful time Thursday - Friday Night.. As always I will be here at my computer pretty much through the duration of that storm, I will let everyone know whats going on in the Centerville area.
Its a little too soon to start playing the “What will you see in your backyard game” But I am ancy to see what everyone is thinking at this time..
I say,
CENTERVILLE TN
Snowfall 4 inches
Ice .25 to .40 inch
Sleet .50 inch
Theres alot of players that are going to have to come togather to get the right ingredients for the type of wintery precip you will have at your house. Thats kinda what is tricky about this one. Cold air will be in place, and precip will be here also. Its just I really don’t want to deal with the warm air intruding in over top of the cold air = FRZ RAIN..
But thats my thoughts as of now.. Lets see how much this changes..
Have a great night ya’ll!
SPRING HILL, TN
Snow: 6 inches
Ice: Hopefully none
Sleet: .5 inches
Maybe a little too optimistic I know, but looking at the models it doesn’t seem too far out of reach.
This is also probably the most promising storm I’ve seen yet here in TN. Although, if the cold air undercuts the warm air, that would mean freezing rain and a lot of disappointed people.
Btw, I will be at computer for the duration of the event as well
mount juliet 2.5 inches, underneath probably half inch of sleet
I’ve heard the heaviest snowfall totals of 6 inches plus may occur in a narrow band along the Ky-Tn borders.
I want snow so bad. Winter storm watches are already out for everyone but us. I am begining to think it is going to be nothing more than rain. Which would be another bummer for us wanting snow. I was hoping for snow but now it seems things are changing. The rain line seems to be moving more north. Lord, please let it snow!!!!! Anyone got any better ideas. Please no nay sayers just honest thoughts.
Wow look at this.. LOL
16 inches of snow for Centerville
http://myforecast.com/bin/expanded_forecast.m?city=29885&zip_code=37033&metric=false
That would be awesome! But, do you think it will actually happen?
Ohh no not at all.. I dont think hardly anyone will see over 5 inches.. But hey a snowman can dream.. LOL!!
I’m starting to get skeptical. The rain band is moving into counties such as Maury. I think northern counties will get a nice event while south of 40 could be a wet slush.
Ryanindickson, acording to News 2 Storm Tracker Centerville will get rain all day Friday.
LOL @ Snow Repellent’s sentence “I’m starting to get skeptical.”….YOU”VE ALWAYS been skeptical…..DUH!
Go over and read the forecast discussion this morning at the Nat’l Weather Service website.
Insanity is doing the same task over and over and expecting a different result.
The rain/mixed precip threshold stops at Maury County.
Rain with some frozen precip for counties south of Davidson.
I Beg to differ Snow Repellant, The Rain/mix Precip ends south of us
We are going to get 4 to 9inches just like the rest of northern middle TN. You should really keep yourself updated on the forecast 