Snow? Yes; Biggest Snow In A Long Time? Not Necessarily

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No doubt we are going to see some snow.  But how much?  Yesterday, we talked about how when the precipitation begins as snow and ends as snow the forecast has a lot better chance of verifying (as opposed to when it is forecasted to start as rain and change over to snow).  Since we are expecting one of those rare instances when it is expected start and end as snow, it is quite likely we’ll get our share. 

However, we also explained yesterday that there will be two low pressure systems, one in the Gulf and one in the Ohio Valley, that will “split the snow in half” with the heaviest amounts passing both to our north and to our south.  Below is today’s GFS model run.  Notice the light blue areas below on the bottom chart coinciding with the two separate lows on the top chart.  We will be in between.  Therefore, I think that 1-2″ (many of us leaning towards 1″) will be the most likely amount seen, with 1-3″ possible in our extreme northern and eastern counties.  Timing? Probably starting before sunrise in our northwest counties and in Nashville after sunrise during the morning hours.  It will continue to spread to our eastern counites at or before noon.  Lisa made an excellent point yesterday that this will be a dry powdery snow that will blow around in the wind and create drifts.  Unfortunately, that dry snow doesn’t make a good snow man.  Please read my section below labeled “IMPORTANT”.

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IMPORTANT:  Wind chills Thursday night through much of Friday will be at or below zero.  This is dangerous cold.  You should have an emergency kit in your car that has blankets, extra coats and gloves, and some of those heating pads you break open and shake.  If you get stranded on the road, it could be a life threatening experience. 

49 Responses to “Snow? Yes; Biggest Snow In A Long Time? Not Necessarily”

  1. flgirl says:

    Everyone says that Nashville freaks out at snow. How much snow? Is 1-2″ going to cause some problems on the road? My employer says if we need to be out because of it tomorrow we can use personal time. I’ve never driven in snow before so I’m just curious what people are thinking this will potentially be like on the roads in the morning?

  2. ycartrob says:

    If you don’t need to drive in the snow in Nashville I wouldn’t. I lived in Boston for a while and learned how to drive in the snow, but it’s the other guy I am worried about. People in Nashville don’t know how to drive when it rains, so imagine how bad it is when it snows!

  3. Your employer is highly insensitive. Tell them you’ll take personal time so long as they pay the bill should their dictate to be at work cause you to be in an accident.

    As far as your question. 1-2″ can be a problem in this situation due to how cold it has been over the last several days. Anything that falls will stick and that can create hazardous conditions. Take it nice and slow and give yourself plenty of stopping distance. That is my best advice.

    If I were your employer, I would say to use good ‘common sense’ (which isn’t so common these days). There are those out there who would take advantage of flurries falling and say they couldn’t come in. Gosh, how I remember THAT during my old restaurant management days.

  4. michael.fineman says:

    So the latest by news 2 says even less snow than earlier today. Don’t be surprised if we get nothing in Nashville.

  5. flgirl says:

    Thanks folks!

    Actually, my employer was being relatively nice :) What they meant was— if the office closes tomorrow, we’re going to be compensated for the day with nothing against our personal time, etc. If they keep the office open, it’s at our own discretion if we are able to come in or not, but since the office is open, we would need to use a personal day if we chose not to come in. I’ve only ever seen snow once before, so I kind of have paranoia about it and absolutely don’t want to drive in it, so I was curious what the roads would be like tomorrow and seeing if I think it’s going to be good to go to work or just use a PTO day. Last year when we had the little tiny bit of a wintry mix, I drove home and was terrified, the snow was falling and it was raining, I was sliding a bit and I was driving so slow and people kept flying past me honking at me. Born and raised in Florida, I was majorly not used to this, and I was so frustrated that everyone kept driving so fast in dangerous weather.

    I will definitely get up tomorrow and check the broadcast to see what they say the roads are like. If they are slick and we’ve gotten a couple inches that stuck, I’ll probably use a PTO day and just stay inside. As silly as it sounds, 1-2″ is enough to freak me out on the road since I’ve barely seen snow before :D

  6. michael.fineman says:

    I wouldn’t worry about the roads tomorrow since they are likely to be completely dry.

  7. bearroller9640 says:

    its not going to do anything people. the radar has the snow moving east not southeast.

  8. dumdum says:

    bearroller , lol , nvm…I wont even try to explain to you how dumb you sound right now.

    It does not matter if it is 1″ or 100″ of snow. People down here, in the south, freak out if they see any snow on the ground. I hope all that brine helps against this upcoming system…..considering there is now ” melting when it touches the ground “.

    From experience, I never say how much snow is going to fall in a city or specific area until that snow actually arrives here. Especially with the situation we are in. Anything can happen, and I mean anything. They can predict 1-3″, and the next day we get 6″ of snow on the ground. They can predict 1-3″ to fall, and we get nothing at all but a few flurries. Its only a matter of watching what actually happens the day it moves in the state.

    I think I remember you last year michael. You always doubted any snow chance, lol. Do you hate snow or something ? You are a very strong critic when it comes to winter, :P.

  9. snowskeptic says:

    Um DumDum - before you start criticizing bearroller, go actually look at the looping national radar - the precip is indeed moving due east. There is only a small sliver of snow that looks to be below the KY state line when it gets to TN. I had originally thought we would get an inch or so - a dusting at best looks more likely now. Look for NWS to cancel the winter weather advisory overnight.

  10. bearroller9640 says:

    they have closed schools already and the snow hasnt even started and i bet it wont snow much if it even does….lol…but hey i am dumb …..lmao

  11. Snow Repellent says:

    This is my first post ever, but this is weather, not war.

  12. bearroller9640 says:

    I will believe the snow when I see it happening…….

  13. Snow Repellent says:

    bearroller9640….easy good buddy. The snow is impending and it will cause alot of problems in the morning.

  14. bearroller9640 says:

    I am glad i only work half a night tonight. I get off around 3 or 4 am and then to the store if the radar shows the snow coming if not I still need cokes so either way I will be shopping at 4am for a few things. I gotta have my cokes and I am down to 1 now so they are needed bdly….LMAO!!

  15. Snow Repellent says:

    Cool….it does does appear the Lows have routed around Nashville. Easy on the cokes, they will melt the snow.

  16. Jason says:

    CookevilleWeatherGuy says:
    January 6, 2010 at 4:17 pm
    I think until you’re charged with making those decisions, you can’t even begin to understand their task. While I think it is fine to comment on what they do, saying they jumped the gun is off base. Just my opinion though….hope we get more than current projections!

    Iv been gone a while, but seems somethings never change. Mike this may be the single stupidest comment you have made on this board, they 100% jumped the gun just like they do all the time. If they would have looked two days ago at a real map and not looking at those computers of theres they would have seen the jet stream is running right across the state and is going to ride both of the lows right around tennessee. Anyone below nashville will not even see a flake fall and north of nashville will se notight more than a dusting if that. iv said for years now all the forecasting done in this area could be done better by the avg joe. News2 and others may get it right 10% of the time and as viewers we should be calling for the firing of these so called forecasters.

  17. snowbirdbandit says:

    Will a low pressure form in the gulf to enhance our snow chances

  18. Snow Repellent says:

    Make sure they don’t fire Lisa…

  19. bearroller9640 says:

    he has changed it alittle now 2 to 3 inches it was 1 to 2 for my area. i dont think they know whats going on….lol

  20. Snow Repellent says:

    It would be a safe bet if they just said it would never snow ever. Their prediction to reality ratio would increase.

  21. snowbirdbandit says:

    Precip is showing up on the NOAA radar in NW AR moving toward TN. It is a storm that is just developing and it will pull moisture from the gulf to secure a good snowfall in Nashville. I predict 2″-3″ by 7pm Thursday night

  22. Snow Repellent says:

    Snowbirdbandit sounds like he knows what he is talking about

  23. bearroller9640 says:

    i hope he is right

  24. DAVISJES335 says:

    guys you cant just judge from the radar right now. this ia a developing system, and a low is forming in the gulf. there will be now covering mid tenn, it just probably wont be on the heavy side. i think they got this one pinned. look for anything between 1 and 3. if the northern low shifts south or the southern low moves north, look out though.

  25. Ok, no one predicted the STORM OF THE CENTURY people.. It’s all good, everything is right on track right now..

  26. [...] Meanwhile, projected snowfall amounts for the region continue to go down, and down, and down… [NashvilleWX] [...]

  27. dumdum says:

    Agreed Ryan.

    The system is developing nicely…… It looks like the snow will stretch all the way down into Alabama which is one heck of a system.

    I was driving back home and noticed that the Kroger’s had bundles of people walking in and out. I can’t imagine what it would be like here in Nashville if we had an incoming blizzard.

  28. WilliamsonCo. says:

    Ok well every time i check the radar there is more and more moisture building in the south and west. For once i think the forecast well be fairly accurate and we get about 1.5 to 2 inches maybe more but probably not less. And i am fairly certain that if that happens schools will be out friday and maybe just maybe monday to because of refreezing.

  29. Snowlover says:

    I can’t wait to get on this blog tomorrow and say ha! to those of you who poopooed our chances of snow. Look at the radar - it’s coming and we WILL see some accumulation. I love it! By the way, I live north of Nashville on the Highland Rim.

  30. OK TIME TO THROW EVERY COMPUTER MODEL OUT THE WINDOW!! LOOK OUT YOUR WINDOW AND GIVE UPDATES..

    Suprisingly it looks like the LOW PRESSURE down in the Gulf is pulling some MUCH NEEDED moisture up here in TN..

    Everything still looks to be on track!

  31. DAVISJES335 says:

    RYAN, where do you do your radar watching and such?

  32. dumdum says:

    Snow showers in west TN, moisture building up over Arkansas. Looking good.

  33. WilliamsonCo. says:

    Can anyone answer how long it will actually take it to start snowing with the humidity and all, because i know most of the stuff now is probably not hitting the ground.

  34. Tweatherguy says:

    the moisture seems to be parting i just wonder if the north low is moving away thus cutting off the “sharing” effect and the one to the south in texas is gaining its own identity if so much more moisture from the gulf pushed into our area without being transitioned to the north any opinions on this?

  35. snowbirdbandit says:

    The TWC radar shows snow falling in West TN, but I don’t believe it is hitting the ground. We need the low pressure from the gulf to start bringing moisture from the south to meet up with the low pressure coming from the north. Again, it is going to be a timing issue. I still predict 2″-3″ snow total.

  36. Tweatherguy says:

    good point, its just an awful lot of moistue is building up back to our west and early is it possible that both are comimg closer together. Could the models be wrong both on moisture and timimg

  37. grogan67 says:

    I dont really think that moisture will be a problem starting out, at 4 this afternoon, dew point in Murfreesboo was 13, its already up to 17 with a temp of 21. I dont see moisture having any problem. 2-3″ for Murfreesboro. Looks like accumulations already piling up just North of Jackson, TN

  38. Snowlover says:

    Isn’t it strange that all of the southern counties have already closed schools but the northern counties are the ones expected to get the largest accumulations? I don’t get that.

  39. Tweatherguy says:

    dewpoints rising fast south low looks to be friendly our way lets hope it stays that way

  40. snowbirdbandit says:

    After viewing the NOAA radar, their is precip coming out of Kansas starting to move ESE toward TN. The precip is picking up, but the front coming from the NW is moving fast. I believe we need to continue to watch the NOAA radar which will determine when snow starts to fall in West & Middle TN. I beileve NWS has it right when it comes to the start of accummating snow in Middle TN……between 3am & 6am. The key is to have it snow from 3am on Thursday until late afternoon on Thursday.

  41. Everyone go and get a good night of sleep! It’ll be a nice, snowy day tomorrow. For some of you who are west of Nashville, your fun could start before sunrise while many of the rest of us from Nashville eastward probably won’t see it start until after daybreak.

    Enjoy the snow and remember to bundle up, the cold behind this front is brutal and dangerous.

  42. snowbirdbandit says:

    Check out the NOAA radar, precip is building up in AR heading NE. We need the low in the south to hook with the low coming in from the NW. We need Precip to get a good snow in Middle TN. Again, it is timing and the radar. I would love to see a Winter Storm Warning issued by NWS in the next 3-4 hours for Nashville.

  43. Snow Repellent says:

    Does anybody really believe we are going to get over 2″? I say 1.5 in Williamson County.

  44. Big_brotherfan4ever says:

    I just want to say that I know weather forecasters draw alot of criticism because they arent always right but I am so glad we have them.

  45. [...] Snow? Yes; Biggest Snow In A Long Time? Not Necessarily « NashvilleWX [...]

  46. [...] Snow? Yes; Biggest Snow In A Long Time? Not Necessarily « NashvilleWX [...]

  47. acfry43 says:

    I’m confused like you guys too. I don’t see where an inch can come from out of this anymore. Not going to jump on the ‘bust’ bandwagon just yet. I guess it’s hard to forecast that dry slot that keeps snow from reaching the ground…

  48. snowskeptic says:

    Hey Cookeville Weather Guy - remember your quote from last night earlier in this thread?

    “Everyone go and get a good night of sleep! It’ll be a nice, snowy day tomorrow. For some of you who are west of Nashville, your fun could start before sunrise while many of the rest of us from Nashville eastward probably won’t see it start until after daybreak.

    Enjoy the snow and remember to bundle up, the cold behind this front is brutal and dangerous.”

    lol!lol!lol!lol!lol!

  49. flgirl says:

    snowskeptic, not sure where you’re located but there IS snow. Perhaps not as much as they forecasted, but it IS only 1:20 in the afternoon, the day is NOT over, and where I am (Franklin), we have a parking lot covered in snow AND still have snow falling.

    No need to be immature and rude.

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