Archive for December, 2009

Rain Ending Early This Morning, Turning Colder This Evening

Thursday, December 31st, 2009

Light rain fell last night into this morning, but is already wrapping up in Nashville as we approach 6:00 a.m. The light showers will continue toward the Cumberland Plateau through 8:00 a.m.

Lingering moisture may be an issue on the roads during the morning commute, especially east of I-65.

Despite clouds, highs will reach the upper 40s by midday before a cold front swings across the mid-state after lunchtime. An isolated shower is possible the rest of the day, but it should be dry the bulk of the day.

Colder weather will push in this evening, setting the stage for a chilly New Year’s Eve. Around midnight, look for temperatures in the 30s, wind chills in the 20s, a breeze at 15 mph, and a mostly cloudy sky. I can’t rule out an isolated patch of drizzle or a flurry as we ring in 2010, but that chance looks pretty slim.

A prolonged stretch of cold weather looks like a lock for the first week of the New Year. Check the seven day forecast; we’ll only see highs in the low-to-mid 30s from Friday through next week.

Temperatures will hit the upper 40s at midday before a cold front moves through this afternoon.
20091231highs

Bundle up - wind chills tonight will be in the 20s!
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Wet Tonight; Few Showers Thursday; Colder Tomorrow Night

Wednesday, December 30th, 2009

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new-years-forecast-12-30

Keep  that umbrella handy tonight as rain will be around until around midnight, and then taper off to just scattered activity.  Temps will stay well above freezing tonight with a low near 40.   On New Year’s Eve Day we will see cloudy skies and about a 20% chance for a few showers with highs in the mid 40s.   New Year’s Eve Night it will turn colder as winds shift to the northwest and temps drop through the 30s.  There will be about a 20% chance for an evening shower and then we may see some snow flurries from around midnight through Friday morning.

A Few Snowflakes Reported

Wednesday, December 30th, 2009

StormTracker is showing a few light “radar returns” of light snow and/or sprinkles as we kick off our Wednesday.

Most of that precipitation is evaporating before it hits the ground, because the air is pretty dry (relative humidity in Nashville at 8:00 a.m. is 50% with a temperature of 39 degrees). However…I just took a phone call reporting stray snowflakes in East Nashville.

Our forecast remains unchanged the rest of today; increasing rain chances after midday through tonight and lasting through Thursday.

Read my earlier post for all the dirty details.

Dry This Morning, Light Rain Later Today

Wednesday, December 30th, 2009

This Wednesday morning is another cold one across the Mid-South, with temperatures on either side of freezing. You may notice a few “radar returns” on StormTracker (what looks to be some sprinkles or flurries) but none of that precipitation is reaching the ground. The reason: very dry air at the surface, so the precipitation is drying up before it can make it down to the ground.

A cloudy sky will hang around today, while a south breeze pushes temperatures into the middle 40s by afternoon. A few light rain showers are possible this afternoon through tonight, and even into the day on Thursday.

Temperatures will be in the middle 40s on Thursday at midday, before a cold front ushers in much colder weather for New Year’s Eve. Temperatures at midnight will be around freezing, with a mostly cloudy sky and a brisk northwest breeze. I can’t rule out a stray flurry as we ring in 2010, but that chance looks small.

A prolonged period of cold weather will kick off the New Year, with highs in the 30s on Friday. Temperatures will stay well below average through the weekend and into next week (looks for highs in the 30s and lows in the teens). Despite the cold air in place, moisture looks limited during that stretch - so aside from a few flurries, it doesn’t look like any big snows are on tap for the Mid-South to kick off 2010.

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A few light rain showers are possible this afternoon through Thursday.
20091230predictor

10pm Update: Mix Still Possible in Western Counties Wed A.M. But Not A Major Weather Event

Tuesday, December 29th, 2009

We still anticipate a wintry mix in some of our western counties Wednesday morning, but the precipitation shield has broken up a little bit as it moved eastward.  Either way, 40s for highs will turn everything to rain as the day wears on. 

Expect rain and 40s again on Thursday that may change to flurries around midnight as we turn the corner into 2010.  Check out the 7 Day Forecast.  Temps may stay below freezing for 5 days into the new year.  Ouch!!

Rain May Begin As Wintry Mix West On Wednesday; Cold Beginning To New Year

Tuesday, December 29th, 2009

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You can see all the precipitation headed our way from Texas.  All of the models have that moving in during the afternoon in the form of rain when temps are in the mid 40s.  However, as we mentioned yesterday, the models are notoriously slow with the arrival of precipitation in an “over running” situation (warmer and moist air riding over cold air at the surface).  We could see the precip begin as a mixture of sleet, snow, and possibly freezing rain for the west half of Middle Tennessee, especially near the Tennessee River.  They’ve been salting the roads in many of the counties in western Middle Tennessee.  I can’t rule out the fact that Nashville also might also see a little of that mix before it all turns to rain in the warmer afternoon temperatures. 

New Year’s Eve day will be wet with temps in the 40s again, but by around midnight as we turn to 2010 we may see the rain turn over to snow showers and snow flurries through Friday morning.  High temps on New Year’s Day and for 4 days after that may stay at or below freezing.

Light Wintry Mix Possible Wednesday A.M.

Tuesday, December 29th, 2009

It’s cold this Tuesday morning, with wake-up temperatures in the 20s to near 30 degrees. Low clouds will hang around parts of the mid-state the first few hours of the day.

Highs will only hit 40 degrees during the afternoon, while thin clouds thicken this evening and tonight.

On Wednesday, we’ll watch for the possibility of an isolated wintry mix (rain/snow/sleet) in the morning. The moisture will be limited, so I don’t anticipate widespread problems. Temperatures will climb into the 40s by Wednesday afternoon, with a chance of light rain. The chance of rain continues through Wednesday night into Thursday, the last day of 2009.

A cold front on Thursday afternoon will usher in cold, blustery weather just in time for your New Year’s Eve plans. I can’t rule out an isolated flurry or raindrop at midnight, but temperatures will be the big story, right around 32 degrees as we ring in 2010.

The New Year will begin with a stretch of very cold weather. On Friday, a few flurries are possible, with blustery conditions and temperatures below freezing.

Highs should only be in the 30s on Friday through the weekend into next Monday, so…brrrr!

Light rain in the forecast Wednesday afternoon/evening.
20091229predictorforwednesday

Wednesday morning’s possible mix should be very isolated.
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Possible Snow/Sleet To Rain On Wednesday

Monday, December 28th, 2009

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Looking ahead to Wednesday:

Most of the models are showing the precipitation moving into Middle Tennessee on Wednesday afternoon in the form of rain.  But I must disagree.  This is an “over running” situation with warmer and moist air over riding cold air at the surface.  From my experience, this seem to “fool” the models most of the time, and the precip comes in sooner.  If that’s the case, we could have some slippery conditions on Wednesday morning with snow and sleet and possibly freezing rain.  As the day wears on, temps warm to the 40s and it all changes to rain.  If the precip wants to wait until afternoon, it will all be rain.  We’ll take another look at it tomorrow.

Thursday still looks like rain with temps in the 40s.  But as colder air pushes in Thrusday night it should change over to snow (possibly snowing by the time they “drop the guitar” on lower Broadwa).  Flurries should continue on Friday morning, and temperatures may not get above freezing for 3-4 days.

Chilly Temps Continue; Mix To Rain on Wednesday; Snow For New Year?

Monday, December 28th, 2009

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The chilly temperatures will continue tonight and tomorrow, but that ’s nothing like we expect by New Year’s Day and the following weekend (see 7 Day Forecast to the right).  But we are getting ahead of ourselves. 

After a sunny but chilly day on Tuesday, precipitation will push in on Wednesday, probably starting as sleet, snow, and/or freezing rain changing to all rain as temps warm to the 40s during the day.  A lot depends on how soon the precip moves in.  If it wants to wait until afternoon, it will be mostly rain.  If it moves in during the morning, we will get the frozen mix changing to rain.  I think it will be the later.  The models hold it off until afternoon, but “over running” situations like this usually bring the precip in earlier than the models say.  “Over running” is when warmer moist air over rides a cold dome of air at the surface.  We could have some slippery roads Wednesday morning. 

On New Year’s Eve we should see all rain during the day.  However, that night the rain should change over to snow showers that should continue as flurries New Year’s morning.  Temps should stay at or below freezing New Year’s Day through the weekend.  Is that a Happy New Year?  I’m not sure!

Not So Warm Today

Monday, December 28th, 2009

Headlines

We start our Monday morning after Christmas with temperatures in the low 20’s. Some sunshine and a west wind should at least get us into the upper 30’s this afternoon. But later today clouds thicken and the winds pick up combining to make for a cooler feel to our Monday afternoon. Tonight lows in the mid-20, tomorrow highs in the low 40’s.

Heads up about New Year’s Eve. We are watching a band of snow move across Texas tomorrow as a low develops in the Gulf and moves to our south across the Gulf coast.

Texas Snow Tomorrow

That is a storm track more typical the El Nino winter we are in. With the cold air so close by and the moisture down to the south we could end up with a cold rain on the last day of the year changing over to a rain/sleet combination on New Year’s eve. This could become all snow in the overnight and we could start the New Year with snow on the ground. The last accumulating snow was 303 days ago at the Nashville Airport. We have had two days with a trace of snow (flurries in the air really) so far but not enough to stick to the ground.


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