Archive for November, 2009

Just A Little Rain Sunday

Friday, November 20th, 2009

It’s been a dry November this year in Nashville. Less than a quarter of an inch has fallen, that would make it the driest November ever recorded. Here a list that covers the last 138 years, it shows only about a half of inch of rain fell back in 1949:

driest-novembers

We do have rain in the forecast a couple of times here in the last 10 days of November. Some should fall on Sunday morning and then again heading into Tuesday morning. The rain event Sunday looks modest:

Southern Rain Sunday

If we stay under an inch of rain by next Monday we’ll log the driest November in 56 years. This after such a wet September and October!

Still no hard freeze in Nashville, now counting 244 days between a freeze at BNA.  The record is 258 back in 1935. The second longest was 246 days back in 1946 (also happened in 1928). It appears we  will have the SECOND longest growing season on record.

A Nice Friday

Friday, November 20th, 2009

After the fog clears this morning the freezing temperatures across the southern counties will quickly warm to the low 60’s. Mostly sunny skies today and very little wind will make for a nice afternoon. Tonight lows drop down to the low 40’s.

Saturday will have more in cloud cover, temperatures will only warm into the upper 50’s but it’ll stay dry. Predictor shows the clouds tomorrow afternoon:

Saturday 4p

A storm system is moving across the Gulf coast, as it turns toward South Carolina by Sunday it’ll spill some rain chances into middle Tennessee, especially across our southern and southeast counties:

Low Over Mobile

Predictor puts the rain at the Alabama/Tennessee state line by midnight Saturday. Through the overnight hours and into Sunday morning that rain spreads north and northeast. Here is Predictor for Sunday 6am:

Sunday 6am

Between the clouds and rain temperatures will only warm into the mid-to-upper-50’s. The next rain chance shows up Monday night and Tuesday morning. It is looking dry over the south for Wednesday (the big travel day) and Thanksgiving. Next Thursday will likely be a little chilly, highs are forecasted to be in the low 50’s.

Lake Levels Low

Thursday, November 19th, 2009

ohl-low-water-propohl-low-water-2

Water levels have been dropped very low on Old Hickory Lake.  This is a good time for dock owners to make repairs, etc. 

The weather will cooperate for that kind of work Friday and Saturday.  Sunny skies all day Friday will help temps climb into the comfortable low and mid 60s.   Clouds roll in on Saturday but it will still be mild in the 60s.  Looks like a rain event slips through Saturday night into the first half of Sunday.

Thanks to Mark Fagan for the photos.

Morning Clouds, Warmer Day

Thursday, November 19th, 2009

Headlines for Thursday

We’ll finally get some sunshine today, that will insure warmer temperatures than late. Yesterday, for the second day in a row, we barely reached 50 degrees by afternoon under cloudy skies. Today with a little sun we’ll get into the upper 50’s. Clear skies tonight mean temperatures close to freezing (and some fog) for Friday morning. Friday afternoon mostly sunny and low 60’s.

This weekend rain will move across the deep south. We get clouds from this system and slight rain chances by Saturday night/Sunday morning in our southern (from Waynesboro to Winchester) to counties to the southeast third (from Murfreesboro down I-24).

Clouds/Sun Mix Affects Temperatures; More Sunshine Tomorrow P.M.

Wednesday, November 18th, 2009

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vis-11-18

highs-11-18

The News 2 City Cam shows a few breaks in the clouds in Nashville, while the above satellite picture shows a swath of clear skies from Spencer to McMinnville to Smithville and Sparta to Cookeville.  Meanwhile, west of Nashville, skies are mostly overcast.  Obviously, the more sunshine the warmer the temperatures.  That’s why we are forecasting warmer temps in the area of sunshine to the east, where temperatures are usually a little cooler.  To the west of Nashville, temps stay in the upper 40s to near 50.

Tomorrow, the upper level low that has caused all the cloudiness will be moving farther away from us, so expect some afternoon sunshine on Thursday after a mostly cloudy start.  With more sunshine, temps could reach upper 50s to near 60.

Peek Ahead to Thanksgiving

Wednesday, November 18th, 2009

Here is the latest long range forecast for Thanksgiving. It shows a strong low over the Great Lakes with clouds and cooler weather (50’s) for middle Tennessee. We might get some rain from that low on the day before, the travel day Wednesday.  If skies clear any of these nights leading into the weekend we might get our first freeze in Nashville. gfs_pcp_204s

Another Chilly Day

Wednesday, November 18th, 2009

Wed Headlines

Yesterday was a reminder that we can get some cold weather in November, afternoon temperatures hovered in the low 50’s. Another similar day for our Wednesday, highs again only in the mid to low-50’s. Mostly cloudy start with a few breaks in the clouds like yesterday, a south wind today but it’ll do little in warming us up. There will be a passing shower on the plateau but dry elsewhere.

Tonight lows will again get down into the upper 30’s with highs tomorrow in the upper 50’s. Low 60’s on Friday with sunshine.

Reality Check!

Tuesday, November 17th, 2009

afternoon-11-17

low-11-17

Today is a tough reminder of what the weather in mid November can be like!  We have been spoiled.  As a cold front pushed in overnight, temps dropped from the 50s to the 40s.  At 9am Nashville was 51, but then dropped to 48 at 10am, then to 47 at 11am and noon.  It looks like we may not rebound back to 50 this afternoon in the cloud cover and patchy drizzle.  The normal high for today is 59, so we went from 13 degrees above normal on Sunday to about 10 degrees below normal this afternoon.

The upper level low noted on the satellite picture above will hang around through tomorrow, finally lifting out on Thursday.  We may get lucky and see a few peaks of sun late tomorrow afternoon, but sunshine is more likely on Thursday.

Morning Rain, Cooler Afternoon

Tuesday, November 17th, 2009

Some Clearing 4pm West

Most of the rain fell overnight but there will still be a passing shower or two today. Cloudy skies with a few glimpses of sunshine to the southwest this afternoon. Highs were reached in the early morning hours, upper 50’s. By later today they’ll be in the low 50’s.  

Clouds tonight keep most places in the upper 30’s to around 40 for a low.

Skies clear a little tomorrow but the cold air keeps pouring in. We’ll have highs only in the mid-50’s tomorrow. No much in rain chances for the rest of the week and upcoming weekend.

By Thursday and Friday highs back in the low 60’s but it’s not looking like we’ll be seeing again that 70 degree weather we had two weekends-in-a-row anytime soon

P.M. Rush Hour Rain Could Cause Slippery Roads

Monday, November 16th, 2009

If you are following Stormtracker above, you can see that the shower activity has already pushed into our western counties.  The rain should be in Nashville by rush hour this afternoon/evening.  It has been over two weeks since we have seen any rain on the streets of Nashville (it rained last Tuesday south and east of town).  That means that all that oil and grime that has collected in the pores of the concrete will come out, causing streets to be a little more slippery than normal.  Drive carefully on your way home, or wherever you may be heading when the rain arrives.