Archive for August, 2009

Rain Chances Increase

Thursday, August 27th, 2009

Isolated showers today, a 20% chance across the afternoon. Rain chances a little higher in the southeast and eastern third (plateau and rim).  Highs today and tomorrow in the upper 80’s with that typical August humidity.

The shower chances a little better on Friday as a cold front slowly approaches from the west. That front will arrive on Saturday which translates to the best rain chances of the week. Highs tomorrow mid-80’s and humid.

The rain could continue up on the plateau into Sunday morning but for most Sunday day will be dry and much cooler with highs only in the upper 70’s.

Warming Up Now, Another Cool Down Coming Sunday-Tuesday

Wednesday, August 26th, 2009

cool-sunday-8-26

Although we are heading back into 90 degree weather over the next several days, there is some relief in sight by Sunday afternoon.  The GFS model panel above is valid at 1pm Sunday.  It forecasts a cold front (drawn in blue) to be well east of us by then, with another strong high pressure center dropping out of Canada (a lot like the last one).  This could mean more highs in the 70sto near 80 with overnight lows in the 50s Sunday through Tuesday.

Expect scattered t’shower chances to pick up Friday through  Sunday morning before drying out behind the front.

By the way, read below about newly formed Tropical Storm Danny.

It’s Official: Tropical Storm “Danny” Forms In The Atlantic

Wednesday, August 26th, 2009

 danny-1st-advisory-8-26

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As we have been anticipating, Tropical Storm Danny has formed in the Atlantic about 775 south southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  The track brings it close to Cape Hatteras as a Category 1 Hurricane, before following Bill’s path just offshore of New England by Sunday.  For the northeast it’s Yogi Berra’s “deja-vu all over again” for this weekend!

Rain in the Southeast. Is it Danny Yet? Vol Opener Peek

Wednesday, August 26th, 2009

We have a few showers moving up from the southeast just west of I-40 around Winchester, Tullahoma area. Might get to the Celebration site in Shelbyville. Just a moment of light rain if that. Might be opening the door for another run of passing showers this afternoon as the daytime heating gets going.

Looks like the tropical system just north of Hispanola will become Tropical Storm Danny. This is being shown by the long range modeling to skirt the Carolina shore by weekend. As it gets stronger this will likely change, will of course keep you posted. Not likely to affect middle Tennessee in anyway significant.

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For what it is worth (we are discussing long range forecasting after all) the gulf really opens up heading into the weekend of Labor Day. It is (right now at least) looking like some wet weather for the Vols season opener in Knoxville.

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Summer in August

Wednesday, August 26th, 2009

Headlines for Wed.

It should be no surprise that we are in the low 90’s here in August. Partly sunny and warm today and tomorrow but this typical summer fare comes on the heels of a week of cooler weather (average high last six days: 83 F). But as been the theme ever since July the hot conditions refuse to linger, an approaching cold front brings in enough cloud cover to keep highs in the 80’s on Friday (and bring also a 30% storm chance). By Saturday night the rain chances almost double with highs only in the upper 70’s by Sunday.

Tropical Storm Danny could form today or tomorrow just north of the island of Hispanola. It looks like it would be a threat for the east coast if it develops into a hurricane.

Special thanks to the Wilson County Fair Volunteers and allowing me to be part of the “Fairest of the Fair” contest on Monday night.  Hyden Fugate ran the contest along with the usual large group of volunteers to crown a winner Monday night. Also thanks to the Sara Evans camp for the use of the bus for the interviews. Made us three judges (myself, Mrs. Tennessee International Lyndie Peery and her Pageant director Phil Frazer) feel like country music stars.

Our Winner

August Temps Return; Possible Development In The Tropics

Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

As Justin mentioned below, temps are finally getting back to normal or a little above.  Our normal high is 87, and we are forecasting 89 today, and 91 tomorrow.  There is only a very slim chance for a shower today in our southern and eastern counties.  Scattered rain chances increase somewhat later this week ahead of a cold front.  The latest model run shows another shot of cool and dry air (for the end of August) moving in by Sunday and hanging around on Monday, as well.  More relief from the heat and humidity would be nice.

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Meanwhile, check out the disturbance north of Puerto Rico.  This will likely become Tropical Storm “Danny” in the near future.  A hurricane hunter plane is investigating this afternoon.  This system may parallel the east coast, possibly brushing the Outer Banks of North Carolina, and once again, Cape Cod.   Let’s hope it does stay offshore.  Here is the latest statement from the Hurricane Center:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT
325 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.  THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION…AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND 20 MPH.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE…GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL
STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  INTERESTS
IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING HAS MOVED INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. 
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Temperatures take a reality check

Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

It’s cool and comfortable early this Tuesday morning, with wake-up temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s for the early risers.

I expect lots of sunshine to push temps into the middle 80s by lunchtime. So long, cool spell: we’ll be partly cloudy this afternoon with highs in the upper 80s. This will be the first day of above-average highs since last Wednesday.

Dewpoints temperatures will be in the lower 60s this afternoon. You’ll notice the humidity, but it won’t be oppressive.

Small thundershower chances are back in the forecast on Thursday and Friday, with better rain chances on Saturday and Sunday as a front rolls through. The timing of the frontal passage (and best rain chance) is not set in stone, so we’ll watch that closely and keep you posted.

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20090825highs

Warmer Tuesday Afternoon; Slight Chance Shower East & Southeast

Monday, August 24th, 2009

highs-8-24

After a comfortable start Tuesday morning (see entry below), temps will warm into the upper 80s by the afternoon hours.  The humidity will start to slowly creep back up on the heals of a light southeasterly breeze.  There might be a few showers in our east and southeastern counties by afternoon (20% chance) in that southeast flow (see Predictor below).

predictor-8-14

If you click on the 7 Day Forecast to the right, you will see that scattered shower chances will increase during the later part of the week.  Long range GFS model forecast shows another front moving in Saturday afternoon to cool us down again Saturday evening through Sunday and Monday.  We will follow that as the week wears on.

Fantastic Monday; A Pleasant Night Again; Warmer Tuesday Afternoon

Monday, August 24th, 2009

lows-8-24

Temperatures and humidity remained low for the month of August again today, with highs only in the low 80s on the hourly reports.  With clearing skies tonight, and low dew points, temps should once again fall to pleasantly cool levels, although they may be a few degrees up from this morning’s lows.

On Tuesday afternoon, temps will warm to the upper 80s.  An upper level low to our south may supply a shower or two to our east and southeastern counties.  Those chances there may run about 20%.

On Wednesday, we may touch 90 again.  As we head out in the 7 Day Forecast, we may see another shot of cooler air by Saturday night through Sunday and Monday.  We’ll keep you posted.

Nice…Again

Monday, August 24th, 2009

Headlines

We’ll be a little warmer than the Fall-like weather over the weekend.  A sunny start this morning with a partly cloudy skies by afternoon.

Lows tonight down into the low 60’s. Highs on Tuesday in the upper 80’s as we quickly return to summer weather. It’ll be around 90 on Wednesday and Thursday with rain back in the forecast by Friday.

Hurricane Bill is gone, it is no longer a considered a tropical cyclone though still packing 70 mph winds this morning.  The Atlantic is currently presenting very little in hurricane threat.


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