Saturday evening we saw a storm with lots of lightning move eastward down I-40 from New Johnsonville to Hurricane Mills to Bucksnort, and between Waverly and Centerville before dying out. 

We could see a few more showers and storms pop up overnight, followed by a a pretty good chance for showers and t’storms on Sunday (50-60%).

Keep the umbrella handy, because a shower or storm could occur any time of the day.

The web cam from Sunset Marina at 3:45pm.  To see it live CLICK HERE.

As of 3:45pm, some storms that extend from southern Kentucky into northeast Middle Tennessee were pushing into the Dale Hollow Lake area.  Read my post below for the general outlook through Sunday.

We are watching a frontal boundary near the Ohio River that will push southward towards the KY/TN border overnight.  This will increase our scattered storm chances this evening, tonight, and on Sunday.  A Severe T’Storm Watch is in effect for portions of south Kentucky until 8pm tonight.  Although there is no watch for Middle Tennessee, expect scattered storms to become more numerous over the next 24 hours.  A few of them may have damaging winds and hail. 

Storm chances are the greatest in the northern 2/3 of Middle Tennessee overnight, including Nashville.

Highs today should reach into the mid to upper 80’s with a little in cloud cover (and even small rain chances north). A northwest flow aloft makes things, as usual, a little tricky. It appears that a small rain maker will move down across the morning, perhaps getting as far as Davidson county before dissipating. A few of the computer models hint at another one mid-day following the same path. Regardless, mostly dry with periods of cloudiness until later afternoon than partly cloudy. Enough sun to make a slightly warmer day than yesterday as well as slightly more humid.

YOUR WEEKEND: Tomorrow we log our fourth 90 degree  (or more) day of July before the next system moves in from the northwest. Clouds increase toward the end of tomorrow with good rain chances late Saturday and through Sunday. It looks like several chances of rain next week with temperatures staying in the upper 80’s.

In the aftermath of yesterday’s rain we start our Thursday with lots of low clouds and fog. A steady northwest wind will slowly erode away the fog and most of the clouds. We should get enough sunshine to at least get temperatures into the low to mid-80’s. We’ll get more sunshine tomorrow and end our work week with our warmest day of the week: highs in the upper 80’s and reasonable humidity (dewpoints in the low 60’s).

Ever since the weekend our average high is right at 79 degrees. We didn’t even HAVE a 70 degree day last July. Though the record for this date is 103 degrees we haven’t experienced a hundred degree day now in 700 days (two summers ago).  Still expecting only typical (or below) normal highs to close July with. The wet trend is forecasted to continue into August, below is the outlook from the Prediction Center for July 30th to August 5th. It shows good chances (in green) for above normal rainfall:

Doppler Radar rainfall estimates above show generally .3-.6″ of rain, especially from Nashville westward.  That does not sound like a lot, but it came over a 8-9 hour period, nice and slow so it could soak in.  I was talking to our computer expert Christian Grantham this morning and we both noted how this kind of rain is a lot better than getting 2″ in 30 minutes from the usual July thunderstorm.  Most of that runs off and does not soak in.  Cameraman Charlie Dunaway called it a “farmer’s rain”.

We don’t normally get this type of rain in July unless it is the remnants of a tropical system.  We usually see scattered storms or a line of storms that does not last that long, and does not give everyone rain.   This time it was a broad shield of rain associated with a low pressure canter.  

As for the forecast, the steady rains are over, but scattered activity will persist in an off and on fashion through late afternoon.  The activity will taper off and move east this evening, followed by a cloudy sky with some fog developing overnight.  Tomorrow, low clouds will persist for about half the day, before slowly yielding to sunshine in the afternoon.

Highs will only reach into the upper 70’s with this rain around most of the day. It should start to taper off the second half but still be around until evening. With the clouds and rain cooler weather in store for us, another day in the 70’s (like last weekend). The rain leaves tonight and doesn’t return until Sunday. We are going to warm back up into typical summer weather for a couple of days, upper 80’s Friday and around 90 on Saturday. Below shows how Predictor puts the heavier rain during the morning and noon: