The cold front that you see above here looks to arrive late Thursday/Friday and bring with some heavy rain. Until it arrives rain chances stay around but remain scattered (30% chance or so). After an excellent soaking rain yesterday (slow and steady, little evaporation) we go through Wednesday with ony scattered storms in the forecast. Mostly during the afternoon hours we’ll see a passing shower/storm. The odds of severe weather are again very low but still existent. The next big rain seems to be shaping up tomorrow, more likely tomorrow night. The threat remains through the first half of Friday as we close the month with some major rains. No indication at this time that any widespread severe weather is possible but we could log over 1″-2″ of rain (we already have close to 6″ of rain this month, normal is 3.77″). Highs today in the lower 80’s, after early morning rains clear we might even see a glimpse of sunshine before the storms start to build up. Below is Predictor at 4pm showing modest rain coverage:

The band of showers and t’showers moved into Nashville around 9:30am this morning and should stick around until around 11:30am.  Behind that we still expect scattered activity to be around during the afternoon, followed by another band of showers and storms with more continuous rain this evening.  This does not look like a severe weather event today, though there is some embedded lightning in the shower activity.

Wednesday, we expect morning showers and t’showers followed by mostly cloudy skies with a few isolated to scattered t’showers during the afternoon.

As a front remains stationary near Middle Tennessee, more showers and storms return during the day on Thursday and stick around through Friday morning.

A nice line of rain/storms moving up from the southwest at around 20 mph. Heavy rain and lightning in the line but no severe weather. Should be downtown Nashville just before 10am.

We’ll start our Tuesday with some cloud cover but have upped the rain chances for this afternoon considerably since last I posted. Later today rain and storms will move in from the southwest bringing good chances for heavy rain and a slight risk of strong storms (strong winds/hail). Highs are a little tricky today with the temperature mid-day likely the warmest part of the day (low 80’s). If the heavy rain pans out it could drop the afternoon temperatures all the way down into the upper 70’s. Another wave of heavy rain is possible late tonight, Predictor puts it over Nashville around 2:00am. Tomorrow we’ll likely see only minor rain events through the afternoon and highs in the mid-80’s but Thursday and early Friday again look wet with the risk of heavy rain and strong storms. A wet end to a wet July. Below Predictor shows the first big round in here this afternoon and then another late tonight:

Although most of us will remain dry, as of 3:30pm we have seen a few pop up showers around Clarksville to Erin to near Charlotte.  They were drifting eastward at about 15-20mph.  They will die down quickly near dark.  Rain chances increase tomorrow through the rest of the work week.  See my entry below.

The News 2 City Cam from around noon today, showing some puffy cumulus clouds. 

 I can’t completely rule out that a few of those clouds may grow into some isolated showers today (less than 20%).   However, most of us will not see one.  With fewer t’showers, temps should reach the upper 80s for highs today.

Rain chances will return on Tuesday as the day wears on due to an upper level disturbance moving through Texas and Oklahoma towards Middle Tennessee.  On Wednesday a frontal system moves close to the TN/KY border and goes stationary, yielding off and on rain chances each day through the first half of Friday.

We’ve got rain chances holding back for most of middle Tennessee as a weak front pushes through and winds turn to the northwest. The front will linger over our southeast corner and plateau this afternoon so we’ll keep slight rain/storm chances there later today. Otherwise, after some fog around this morning partly cloudy skies should prevail with highs getting close to 90 degrees for a high. Humidity not as bad as yesterday as this front has brought in some lower dewpoints. The rain chances start to pick up tomorrow afternoon with mostly just widely scattered activity. By Wednesday was have a full-blown weather maker moving across; good rain/storm chances for the mid-week as well as the rest of the week as we end a wet July with…wait for it… wet weather.

As of 9:45pm Sunday evening there were still some scattered t’storms in south and east Middle Tennessee outlining our weak frontal system working its way southward.  As mentioned before, we won’t cool down behind this front, although the humidity will drop slightly.

In the drier air on Monday, temps should soar to the upper 80s to near 90 by the late afternoon hours under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.  On Tuesday there will be a slight chance for a few afternoon showers, otherwise dry with continued upper 80s to near 90 for a high.   By Wednesday and Thursday, showers and t’storms should be likely with highs only in the low 80s.

The few showers and t’showers we see on Stormtracker this evening are lining up along and just south of a weak “cold” front.  I have the work cold in quotes because this front will not really bring any cooler air, though the humidity will be ever so slightly lower on Monday.  As the evening wears on and the front pushes south & eastward, the showers will push southeast, as well.

Monday will be warm and dry with highs in the upper 80s to near 90.  However, shower chances creep back into the picture on Tuesday, with shower and t’storm chances increasing as the week wears on.