As we draw to a close a cold and wet July it is interesting to compare the average daily highs for the last two months:

The average high last June was almost as warm as the average JULY high. The average high this month was actually BELOW the average JUNE high. Basically, the months swapped.  By the way the hot June was no more an indication of global warming than this cool July an indication of there NOT being global warming.  Our July was driven by El Nino falling into place and kicking in a long-standing through over the eastern U.S..  The warming evidence is based on decadal time scales not monthly.

We end up July with just over 6 inches of rain at Nashville (just over 7″ in Clarksville). The average is just under 4″ for the month. This makes the third month in a row of above-normal rainfall.

Big rains fell last night (again), this time in a swath along our western half. Clarksville recorded over 2″ of rain while Nashville logged less than a quarter inch:

We’ll start our Friday with morning drizzle and clouds, a rather dreary start. But conditions should improve by late morning as the winds pick up from the northwest and attempt to clear us out. Partly cloudy skies today with the rain chances staying around our southern tier counties along the Alabama state line. Highs should reach into the mid-80’s and slightly above. Partly cloudy tonight with lows around 70. Your weekend forecast includes rain. Saturday looks like a nice summer day with highs near 90 but by Saturday night and Sunday morning another round of rain/storms come through. We are hoping by Sunday afternoon it will clear out a little but being this is 48 hours away certainity is low. Highs on Sunday in the mid-80’s. Below you see how Predictor has us rain free (but not cloud free) by this afternoon:

When will summer return??? Of the 31 days in July we spent 25 of them with below normal temperatures. We even logged four days with highs only in the 70’s…the most in 30 Julys’ in Nashville.  Well the weather pattern is getting ready to shift. It will take almost a whole week but we are getting back to hot and dry weather (like we had in June!). Below is a map of the wind patterns at about 18,00oft (actually: 500 millibar pressure [at the surface it is around 1010mb).  This level gives you a good view of the overall weather pattern. This  Saturday shows a trough over the eastern half of the U.S.; this means more in cooler weather and rain chances.

Now look at next Saturday (below this paragraph).  Instead of a trough we have a typical summer ridge, in fact a rather strong one. This means storm chances become very limited and mostly afternoon pop-up variety. This also means HOT weather, like highs at least in the mid-90s (if not higher).  So start making your lake/pool plans for NEXT weekend (not this one coming up) as most of us have been avoiding the water bodies of late.

We awake in the early morning to find rain still lingering around middle Tennessee. This rain is heading east and, like yesterday, there should be a break in the rainfall until later today. When the rain returns is a matter of little agreement amoung the forecast models- safe to say that sometime this afternoon rain and storms return to our area with the activity picking up in intensity and coverage tonight. There should be enough sun and dry weather to allow the temperatures to warm to the low-to-mid 80’s. Very heavy rain is possible tonight. Yesterday we  had several Flash Flood Warnings issued for counties (Perry, Maury to name two) so wet soils and full creeks stand by for more rain. Flash Flood Watches are in effect for our southern counties for tonight in anticipation of the event. The heavy rain will likely be tonight, perhaps in the overnight into Friday morning before clearing. Right now Friday afternoon and Saturday looking mostly dry though on Friday some rain might still be on the plateau in the afternoon. Another rain event in store for us for Sunday. Below Predictor shows the rain not around by noon but a deluge in progress by tonight.

After a day of plentiful sunshine, we are seeing some pop up activity breaking out in the afternoon heat.  They won’t last long in any given location.  However, we are watching a larger area of showers and storms in Arkansas about to cross the Mississippi River.  This may arrive later on tonight (in , with a more continuous coverage of rain and t’storm activity.

Tomorrow, look for more scattered activity during the day, but possibly some stronger storms tomorrow night.  We’ll keep you posted.

The News 2 City Cam above at around 11:30am showed blue skies with some fair weather cumulus clouds.  Today, we only expect about a 20-30% chance for a few pop up t’showers, essentially a break in the rain.  But it’s only temporary.

News 2 Stormtracker shows the next round of rain headed our way from three directions.  Expect a few scattered t’showers this evening, but much better chances for showers and storms on Thursday.  Some of those storms may contain gusty winds and hail, so we will keep you posted on News 2 Stormtracker tomorrow.  We expect one round of showers and storms during the day tomorrow, followed by another tomorrow night into Friday morning.

Friday afternoon and evening look great with clearing skies and slightly lower humidity.  However, over the weekend, we expect rain chances to return by Saturday evening and Sunday.