From the Climate Center an updated look at the first week of June (next week). In a word: wet-

The last rains of May will likely fall tomorrow as it looks like the ONLY dry weekend in May will occur on the LAST weekend of May.

This afternoon temperatures will again reach into the low 80’s (like 7 or the last 8 days) with high humidity and mostly cloudy skies. And like the last several days afternoon storms will move slowly over middle Tennessee bringing heavy rain to isolated areas. This activity will continue into the early evening until dying back in the othe overnight hours. Tomorrow a cold front slowly moves across our area, we expect better spread rains because of that and expect it earlier in the day:

The rain chances should taper off by end of day save for the plateau on tomorrow. A slight chance of rain Friday early along our southern counties but cooler and drier. This appears that we’ll enjoy a dry weekend for the first time in May.

If you click on this Satellite Animation, and increase the animation speed (above picture) you can see the counter clockwise spinning of an upper level low moving generally northward through Alabama.  This will increase our aerial coverage of showers and t’showers this afternoon and evening.  Keep the umbrella handy.  Showers and t’showers should continue well after dark before shifting eastward after midnight.  Outdoor evening plans look wet.

We’ll have afternoon storms build up in the warm, humid air that is so firmly in place for our Tuesday. The rain/storm chances are a little better than yesterday though, like yesterday, we’ll await the daytime heating before seeing the majority of the wet weather.  The storms will linger into the evening, even the overnight. Highs today in the low 80’s again with lows tonight in the upper 60’s.  We stay with the same air mass tomorrow and again will see witness afternoon storms though not as frequent as today. Highs tomorrow in the mid-80’s. The big change comes with a cold front arriving late Thursday or early Friday. This will knock down the humidity and perhaps even give us a dry weekend (it would be only our 7th weekend so far in 2009 where the Nashville Airport did not record any rain on Saturday or Sunday). Below is how Predictor spread the rain chances around this afternoon:

As anticipated, there was some steamy sunshine in between our showers on Memorial Day.  You could see the steam rising from the concrete after a shower passed by and the sun came out.

On Tuesday, we expect a round of showers and storms to push in as the day goes on.  We could see a shower any time of day tomorrow, but the highest chances come from around lunchtime through the afternoon hours as an upper level trough swings across Tennessee.  Keep the umbrella handy.

On Wednesday, we expect fewer showers, but warmer temps pushing into the mid 80s.  The humidity will stick around along with scattered t’showers until Friday, when we cool down just a little and lower the humidity.

Our Memorial Day will not be a wash out; the morning should be drier than just yesterday. A glimpse of sunshine or two but mostly cloudy skies and afternoon storms again. Some big rains in isolated areas possible; yesterday a few counties recieved almost 2″ of rain in a short period of time. This weather pattern (mostly cloudy, muggy and afternoon storms) continues into Tuesday and Wednesday before a cold front arrives here Thursday. By next weekend we should have some relief from the high humidity and perhaps even enjoy a weekend free of rain. Below is how Predictor puts the rain chances for this afternoon and tomorrow:

Ryan Edwards in Dickson sent us these pictures on Sunday.  He says he had 3.67″ of rain.

The showers and t’storms were quite extensive on Sunday as that Gulf low passed just to our southwest.  On Monday, we take the storm chances back from Sunday’s 70% to 50% with a little more sunshine mixing with the cloud cover.  The humidity will make it feel almost like summer with dew points in the 60s.

Remember to obey lightning safety rules if you are outdoors on Memorial Day.  Storms will generally be moving from the south to north, so if you see lightning to your south it is headed your way.

The Gulf low we have been following passed just southwest of Tennessee today, increasing the shower and t’shower activity.  As it moves farther away tomorrow, we will still see some scattered activity, but maybe not as much as today (50% tomorrow, down from today’s 70%).  It will be very humid and with some peeks of sun we should see temps push back into the low 80s for highs.  The unofficial start of summer will yield summer like humidity.

With so many people outdoors on the holiday, please keep an eye on the sky.  Remember that lightning is a big killer.  If a storm approaches you, get inside and let it pass.  Then you can go back out in the steam!

The Gulf low continues its trek towards the northwest, increasing our rain chances overnight tonight and on Sunday.  I still put those chances at about 70%.  As the low moves towards the Oklahoma on Monday, rain chances will go down to about 50%.  There will still be lots of Gulf moisture in place on Monday to produce scattered showers or t’showers, but more sunshine in between pushing highs back to the low 80s.

Our Gulf low is finally spreading more widespread rains into Middle Tennessee.  During the early evening hours, the rain will be most widespread from Nashville westward.  Later tonight, all of Middle Tennessee should see shower activity and a few rumbles of thunder.  As you can see on the graphic above, our low moves from south Mississippi to the Arkansas/Mississippi border by Sunday morning.  That puts us closer to the system and in our greatest chance for rain tonight through Sunday.  On Memorial Day Monday, the low moves farther away from us.  We will still see scattered t’shower chances then, but chances will be lower, and we should see some peeks of sun in between showers.  Here is the breakdown of rain chances:

This Evening: 60% chance for showers.
Overnight:      70% chance for showers.
Sunday:            70% chance for showers.
Monday:          50% chance for showers.