As the afternoon wears on the shower and storm activity will be shifting to the south of Nashville.  By 1:30pm Nashville should be clear of the activity and we may eventually see some peaks of sunshine.

To the south and southeast there has been more sunshine, and hence, warmer temperatures.  This should allow for some thunderstorms there, and a few of them could be strong.  They will even leave there later tonight, and be followed by some patchy dense fog.  Our dew points will remain in the low 70sd tonight, and with the leftover moisture from today’s showers, the fog could reduce visibilities to below 1/4 mile in some areas.  Drive carefully if you are out after midnight tonight and during the morning hours of Friday.

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We had some impressive rain totals yesterday in isolated areas:

http://www.cocorahs.org/ViewData/StateIntensePrecipReports.aspx?state=TN

Today the rain chances are a little higher and more widespread.  We had a few warnings yesterday because of high wind with reports of power lines down in Davidson Counry. The same might happen again today; a few warnings but the bigger risk will come with the heavy rain. The rain will continue through the early evening before starting to shift south. By overnight we’ll start to see the skies clear. Then the heat is back: we’ll get into the upper 90’s by Sunday and Monday. Say hello to August! Predictor at 2pm today below:

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We’ll have some afternoon clouds and storms develop in the daytime heating- the only relief today from the hot, humid weather. Highs should reach in the mid-90’s with hopefully some cooler temperatures by end of day thanks to area rain. Gusty winds and heavy rain with the storms but we are not expecting severe weather. Notice how much rain Predictor puts into middle Tennessee:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The rain chances improve greatly tomorrow as we close out July. We should see some heavy rain as a front parks overhead for the day. It will be gone by Friday with the hot weather right back in.

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We won’t have the cloud cover like yesterday during the morning hours- that means a quick jump in temperature. My noon we should be around 90 degrees with a forecasted high around 95. With the humidity that would create a heat index of around 105. Clouds will develop and we’ll have a isolated storm or two, mostly to the south. Tomorrow the rain chances look a little better, below is how Predictor paints the odds:

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Whenever I go to Japan, my father-in-law always brings me some place interesting.  He knows that I love earth science, so this year he took me to Mt. Bandai, the scene of a horrific volcanic eruption in 1888.  This was similar to Mt. St. Helens because it was a huge explosion, followed by mud and ash flows.  In the picture below, you can see the missing part of the mountain (lighter brown with missing vegetation).  It used to be a “conical” mountain much like Mt. Fuji.  Because of this, they called it Aizu-Fuji.  After the explosion, it didn’t look like Fuji anymore. 

This type of eruption is called a “phreatic” eruption, meaning the mountain exploded due to pressure from steam supplied from underground magma and/or heated groundwater.  The eruption also produced heated blasts of steam and gases, thickly mixed with ashes and rock fragments.  This is similar to what happened at Mt. St. Helens in 1980.  The 1888 eruption of Mt. Bandai produced a debris avalanche of 2 billion tons and the summit area rapidly collapsed down into nearby rivers to form mudflows which destroyed 5 villages killing many people.   

The mudflows and avalanches dammed up several rivers forming about 300 lakes and ponds.  Today, these lakes and ponds are a popular tourist hiking destination, as the different minerals in each lake give them different colors.  I saw one lake which was a brilliant light blue color that must have had plenty of magnesium in it.

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If you are following Stormtracker above, you can see the pop up storms we have been anticipating.  Some are breaking out over Davidson and Sumner counties, as of 1PM.  These will form a line (watch the “dots connect” on Stormtracker) and push east of Nashville during the afternoon hours through our eastern counties.  Behind them, a few isolated t’storms could still occur, possibly followed by a few overnight t’showers, as well.  Temps should manage the low 90s for highs, with a few mid 90s sprinkled in, especially southwest of Nashville.

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Most of the storm risk will be in the western and northern parts of middle Tennessee as we watch storms from the midwest slid toward us. Clouds this morning from this will hold down the warm up. Southern counties will get more sunshine and get into the mid-90’s with afternoon storms favoring the northern counties. Slightly cooler weather to the north with temperatures more around 90. Humid everywhere!

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The t’storms we mentioned earlier are continuing their trek southeastward.  A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for western Kentucky until 2 AM including Trigg County.  Although the storms may lose a little punch, we should see some of the activity move into Middle Tennessee by morning.  After the sun comes up, more may develop as the day goes on.  Hopefully, this will keep the temp down a little (still 90s), but we will have to watch for gusty winds.

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The picture from News 2 Stormtracker above shows t’storms in Iowa that will be headed our way for Monday afternoon and everning.  The yellow areas are Severe Thunderstorm Watches for parts of Iowa , Missouri, and Illinois.  I was going to go for 96-98 for a high on Monday, but if we see storms push in during the afternoon, we may max out at about 93.  Some of those storms could have damaging winds, so we will watch them for you closely on News 2 Stormtracker. 

On Tuesday, the storms will be gone, and temps will soar to the mid to upper 90s.

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It will be a toasty afternoon, with highs in the middle 90s.  Despite a light north breeze in the wake of a weak surface front, the humidity stays high.  A mostly sunny sky won’t provide any heat relief.

An isolated backyard thundershower is possible during the afternoon this week, but the big weather story will be the heat and humidity.  Late July is typically the hottest time of the year in Tennessee, and we’re predicting highs in the middle 90s (at least) as we wrap up the month.  I think Wednesday and Thursday will bring a slightly better chance of afternoon thundershowers.

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