A Few Storms Out There
A few thunderstorms are crossing Middle Tennessee this afternoon. There have even been a couple of severe thunderstorm warnings issued by the NWS, due to the possibility of hail and strong wind gusts underneath the storms. The storms are widely scattered, but moving to the east-northeast between 30 and 40 mph.
If you’ve been outside, you know that southwest winds are gusting past 20 mph from time to time. We’re currently on the south side (the warm side) of a stationary front that’s draped across the Ohio River Valley. The front will cross our area tomorrow, bringing showers and thunderstorms with it. I’ll have details on the fropa (frontal passage) this afternoon on News 2 with Predictor.
Mild Start, Slight Rain Chances
We’ll have a 30% chance of rain this afternoon under mostly cloudy skies. Just like yesterday if we see more sunshine than forecast you can add 2-3 degrees to these numbers you see below:
Its only about a 30% chance of rain today but we’ll have some rain tomorrow as a front moves overhead bringing in a temporary end to our 70 degree weather. Only in the low 60’s for Friday and a 70% chance of rain.
Slight Rain Chances, Less Wind
More in clouds but less in wind today compared with yesterday. We’ll have a few showers develop but only about a 20% chance, most of the activity will be across the northern third. Highs a little warmer; we’ll end up in the upper 60’s.
Notice on Predictor how early Friday morning looks. Slight rain chances today and tomorrow but the chance improves greatly as a front moves in. It appears that front will stall in our general area across the weekend and just beyond- this improves our rain chances for Friday night and keeps those chances around Saturday and Sunday.
ISS/Space Shuttle Visible Tonight
Our friend Bill Alderman in Donelson has informed us that you will be able to see both the space shuttle and the International Space Station tonight. Skies should be clear, so put on a jacket and enjoy the viewing.
Red Flag Warning For Much Of Middle Tennessee. So What’s That Mean?
From The Natinal Weather Service:
“A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EITHER OCCURRING NOW…OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS…LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY…AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE
EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.”
Here is the text of today’s warning:
RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
718 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2008
…RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING.
MIN RH VALUES OF 20 TO 23 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH 20 FT
WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE.
A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EITHER OCCURRING NOW…OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS…LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY…AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE
EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.
In our case today, the humidity will be very low as the winds pick up and temperatures rise. Outdoor burning should be avoided, and don’t throw cigarrettes out of the window.
Here is a definition from the National Weather Service’s Jetstream Online School For Weather:
Red Flag Warning
A term used by fire-weather forecasters to call attention to limited weather conditions of particular importance that may result in extreme burning conditions. It is issued when it is an on-going event or the fire weather forecaster has a high degree of confidence that Red Flag criteria will occur within 24 hours of issuance. Red Flag criteria occurs whenever a geographical area has been in a dry spell for a week or two, or for a shorter period, if before spring green-up or after fall color, and the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) is high to extreme and the following forecast weather parameters are forecasted to met:
A sustained wind average 15 mph or greater,
Relative humidity less than or equal to 25%, and
A temperature of greater than 75°F.
In some states, dry lightning and unstable air are criteria.
Warmer Weather Ahead
It is another cold morning across middle Tennessee, actually a few degrees colder than yesterday. But we’ll be almost 20 degrees warmer than yesterday thanks to sunshine and a brisk south wind. Rain chances are low for tomorrow but around none the less especially for the northern third of our area. Warmer weather the rest of the work week. Here are the highs for today:
Cloudy, Chilly Day, Still A Few Flurries
Justin and I were talking about the forecast. He has a name for the morning sun we had today: “self destruct sunshine”. The morning sun actually caused some heating of the lower levels that created the rising motion that formed the cloud cover; hence, “self destruct sunshine”. Temps will remain in the 40s today in the cloud cover.
We have even seen a few small snowflakes fall out of those clouds in Nashville during the lunchtime hour. Snow flurries are increasing in our eastern counties, as seen by Stormtracker above. Expect no problems today with temps well above freezing.
Tonight, skies will clear (as we take away the sun’s heating) and temps will drop to near 30 here in the city with 20s in the outlying areas.
Then the big warm up begins! After the chilly start tomorrow, look for highs to reach the mid 60s with a southwesterly breeze.
More Snow Pixs
From Monterey and White County…
More Plateau Snow Pictures
While skies are clear around Nashville, Clarksville, Murfreesboro, Columbia and Lebanon its been snowing up on the plateau. Here a couple of more early morning pictures:
In Alpine, TN
Near Livingston:
Snow in Overton County
Overton and Pickett counties going to open an hour late because of snow. Welcome back from Spring Break! Here is a picture sent in from Cindy Sells in Livingston showing a dusting in her yard:
