Storms Tonight… but Not Widespread Severe
The thunderstorms moving from west to east overnight will produce lightning, gusty winds, pockets of small hail and some brief heavy downpours of rain, but most will remain below severe weather limits.
We could get a couple of warnings but, again, we are not expecting widespread severe weather.
The storms weakened significantly after crossing the Mississippi River into west Tennessee. However, there is a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for counties west of the Tennessee River until 2am. The threat will end long before that in northern counties but may linger in southern counties as the southern portion of the squall line drags its heels.
If you get hail or any wind damage, send photos to pix@wkrn.com
Storms Overnight into Early Tuesday
After a quiet evening, we expect showers and storms to rumble in to middle Tennessee during the overnight hours.
This system has produced severe weather, including tornadoes, in Missouri down to Oklahoma.
While we don’t anticipate a widespread severe weather outbreak here, we could get a few warnings.
The strongest of storms will be well after midnight into the predawn hours. Scattered leftovers will most likely keep the roads wet for the morning commute on Tuesday.
Wet Start to Our Monday
We start the work week with yet more rain. We’ll end the month of March with above-normal rainfall, about an inch above normal (which is 4.87″) for Nashville. April starts with April showers, rain overnight and tomorrow. We won’t see much in sunshine today save for a glimpse of it this afternoon between the rain. Combined with a south wind the afternoon high should reach near 70 degrees. But rain right back in this evening, some storms possible overnight and by the morning commute tomorrow. Here is how Predictor looks in the overnight and tomorrow afternoon as a front moves through. We’ll finally see some sunshine again on Wednesday!
Warmer Temps, But Still Off & On Showers and T’Storms Through Tuesday
Temps will continue to warm up reaching the 70s on Monday, but the shower and storm chances aren’t over yet. It will be tricky to try to break down the timing of the off and on showers and t’storms, but I’ll give it my best shot:
We expect another round of showers with perhaps a storm or two overnight tonight and Monday morning, followed by a break through the lunchtime hour into the early afternoon. Then we expect some storms to push in overnight Monday into Tuesday as a cold front heads our way. There could be some scattered activity on Monday afternoon, as well.
Temps will be in the mid 60s for highs on Tuesday in the t’storms, and then fall to low 40s on Wednesday morning. On Wednesday temps will struggle through the 50s to barely reach 60 in the sunshine.
Sunday Forecast
Middle Tennessee is mostly cloudy this morning with some drizzle and patchy fog. Right now temperatures are in the 50s, thanks to a southeast breeze. Despite some clouds and wet weather in the forecast, we should reach the 60s this afternoon.
It’s a stormy morning in Memphis; there’s a big cluster of thunderstorms pushing into West Tennessee.
The wet weather will continue to trek eastward, so our chance of rain goes up after midday. Areas west of I-65 will have the highest rain chances today, but just about all of Middle Tennessee could see rain and thunder this afternoon.
The rain chance continues tonight through early Monday, but we think temperatures will climb into the 70s tomorrow afternoon as a south wind really kicks in.
A cold front will bring more rain and thunder Monday night through Tuesday.
We’ll finally get a chance to dry out on Wednesday and I think we’ll need it!
Saturday Afternoon & Evening: Round Of Thunderstorms Pushing In
As of 3pm Saturday, a round of thunderstorms was pushing northeastward through south and west Middle Tennessee towards Nashville. You can follow their progress on Stormtracker above throughout the afternoon and evening. Lightning and thunder will be accompanying these storms, but they will probably not reach severe limits, as our temps are in the low 50s, with dew points in the 40s. These are what we call “elevated thunderstorms” because the warm air needed to create and sustain them is aloft. Elevated storms usually don’t bring severe weather, but they can be noisy (lightning and thunder) and dump large amounts of rain. This could cause some localized flooding.
Weekend Forecast
The front that brought some rain and cooler conditions on Friday has settled across the Deep South. Small disturbances will interact with the front today to bring drizzle and a few passing showers or thundershowers.
Most of the organized rain is south of I-40 this morning. Some of the storms moving along Highway 64 (Waynesboro to Lawrenceburg to Pulaski to Fayetteville) are packing quite a punch, with lots of lightning and the possibility of small hail.
Today won’t be a washout, but I’ll have to mention the chance of a passing shower or t’shower this morning and this afternoon. Much of the day will simply be cloudy and cool, with a northeast breeze keeping high temperatures in the 50s.
The front will lift north on Sunday, allowing winds to blow from the southeast and temperatures to reach the 60s. We’ll mention an isolated shower or t’shower chance tomorrow, but most of the day should be dry.
Drought Making Improvements…But Not Gone
The Drought Monitor Updates come out every Thursday, but are based on rain up to 7am EST on the most recent Tuesday.
Last week’s big rains came on Wednesday.
Look at the difference. The “Exceptional Drought” category is completely gone. The “Extreme Drought” category is still there but shrunk a little on its northern and northwestern perimeter.
If you want to have some fun, go to the Drought Monitor website. Click on Tennessee (and then a second time on the new map to see counties), and then click on “archive” at the top of the page. Select an area by picking “state” and choosing Tennessee and then “update”. Choose several dates. Then you can use your up/down arrows on your keyboard to toggle through them in order to watch an animation of the changes.
Rain and Colder
We start our Friday morning with warm and breezy conditions as rain and storms move overhead. A cold front moves over later in the morning (in the Nashville area) and starts dropping the temperatures. We start in the mid-60’s. By late afternoon we’ll only be in the low 50’s. Storms early on, then occasional rain in the cooler air this afternoon, especially south. Not expecting severe weather. Its going to be a cooler this weekend, upper 50’s tomorrow and upper 60’s on Sunday. Some wet weather both days with a better shot of rain on Sunday.
Predictor show morning rain with more scattered shower activity going on Saturday afternoon.
Isolated T’Showers Overnight
Over the past 30 minutes, a couple of isolated showers and thundershowers have popped up. Jeez!
There’s an unstable layer of air aloft, so a few more “elevated thundershowers” may quickly pass by tonight, ahead of Friday’s more organized system.
