Look at the 6z run of the long range model GFS. This is for Christmas Day at noon; what it is showing is a possible snow event. WOW! There was nothing like this on the previous runs making this suspect for the famous “GFS Flop” (this far out model-run to model-run can show major events appearing and disappearing). Remember we’ve had snow only 9 of the last 122 times on Christmas. This would be good snow to boot if it panned out; the record snow for the 25th at Nashville is just a little over 2″.

Don’t get too excited about all this. If the model run shows much the same about three times in a row we would start TALKING about the POSSIBILITY of snow for Christmas. That said, can’t tell you what a shock it was to see this on the 6z run.

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We’ll watch the morning clouds break a little and get a little sunshine today. Along with a southwest wind highs today will warm into the mid-50’s. Mild for this time of year but not a big warm-up from the morning lows. Tonight the clouds return with the rain chances right back here by tomorrow and tomorrow night. Below are the highs for today and how Predictor paints the rain chances for tomorrow afternoon:

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Tuesday morning’s sunrise in Fredonia which is near Manchester in Coffee County.

Thanks to Jimmy Jones for sharing the view!

Cold 20s greeted us early in the day but tonight temps will stay well above freezing thanks to a south wind and clouds. Sprinkles will come and go through the night but should be gone by daybreak. We will enjoy some sunshine by afternoon with highs in the mid 50s.

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One minute cloudy, one minute sunny on the News 2 City Cam

We’ve watched off and on mid and high clouds push through the area today, with tempertures pushing into the 50s. Clouds may thicken again somewhat tonight, with a slight chance of a few sprinkles late tonight through tomorrow morning. Sunshine should return tomorrow afternoon with highs in the mid 50s. However, rain and possibly a few rumbles of thunder will push in on Thursday with temperatures remaining in the 50s.

Saturday we expect a strong front to produce thunderstorms with highs in the 60s. We will have to watch those storms for the possibility of severe weather. Behind the front, much colder air pushes in followed by a strong upper level trough of low pressure. This could bring in some more flurries or snow showers late Saturday after a temporary clearing earlier in the day. As usual, it’s way too early to see how bad the storms might be or details on the white stuff.

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We’ll enjoy highs in the 50’s today starting a run of mild weather that will last all the way into winter (the winter solstice is on Friday). Just some clouds today but there are slight chances for a little light rain tonight during the overnight hours. Dry tomorrow and slight rain chances again on Thursday. Its looking like the next major weather system arrives just in time for the weekend as we expect rain and storms on Saturday and a few flurries on Sunday. Its going to be a very windy weekend. Below are the forecasted highs for today; below that are the rain chances tonight during the overnight.

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We won’t suffer the wind like yesterday; just a little bit of west wind through the day as high pressure moves overhead to keep us dry. By tomorrow we’ll start enjoying slightly warmer weather: in the 50’s over the next several days. Next rain chance doesn’t show up again until Thursday though a few sprinkles might arrive Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Below are the forecasted highs for today, slightly below normal but a week ahead of above normal temperatures.

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Christina from Clay County sent this picture of the whitening on a tree stump and some mushrooms.

That’s not white paint on the spoiler and roof of the car in this picture from Charlie and Kay Marcum in Cookeville

Snow on Matt Brawner’s deck in Gallatin

With clearing skies tonight, it’s gong to be a cold one. We should see about 24 in Nashville, with fairly uniform lows of 23-26 because of a westerly wind of around 5-10mph overnight. The exception will be the Plateau with about 20 degrees towards daybreak.

Tomorrow in the sunshine we should moderate to about 46 degrees, but in the 7 Day (above right), temps return to the 50s pretty quickly.

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It is blustery this morning! Northwest winds are howling near 20 mph with occasional gusts of 30+ mph.

Temperatures won’t get above the middle 30s today. Wind chill temperatures will feel even colder!

We saw some flurries early this morning across much of Middle Tennessee. Upslope winds near the Cumberland Plateau should squeeze a few more flakes from the clouds (Cookeville, Sparta, Livingston, Celina, Spencer). In that area, clouds will stick around through the afternoon. The rest of us will see some sunshine after midday as clouds clear from west to east.

Lows tonight hit the 20s but the winds should slacken on Monday. Tomorrow looks sunny and cool with highs in the 40s.

Late night flurries in Thompson’s Station (thanks Cameron K.)

Light dusting (thanks Christina in Clay County)

Not quite sure where this was snapped (sent from a cell phone)

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First off, let me apologize for not mentioning the Snow Advisory for the Plateau earlier today. I did mention the possibility of a whitening of the ground northwest and north of Nashville along the Kentucky border, but left out the Plateau.

However, overall, I do not expect this to be a significant snow event. I think most of us will only see some snow flurries and snow showers during the morning hours with no accumulation. This is what happens when the low passes to your north. To get a big accumulation snow, the low has to pass to your south (and it has to be cold enough).

Any snow flurries/snow showers in Nashville will still not occur until 2-3am. Flurries are possible in our northwestern counties after midnight. I think we should wake up to snow flurries, and they could still hang around through the late morning hours. The Plateau could see the flurries/snow showers last into the early afternoon. That’s why the Snow Advisory for there.

Once again, the wind is worth mentioning. When the cold air blasts in, it should pick up to 15-35 mph from the west and northwest and last through Sunday putting wind chill factors in the 20s.

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Not a lot has changed since Justin’s last post. We still expect all rain with temps rising through the 40s this evening before falling after midnight followed by snow flurries/snow showers with no accumulation for most of us. It looks like any chance for snow flurries/snow showers for Nashville will be no sooner than around 2-3am and lasting off and on until late morning with no accumulation. Our friends to the north and west along the Kentucky border might expect that changeover in the midnight time period and some of those areas along the border with Kentucky might also see a slight whitening of the ground.

One thing worth mentioning is the wind. After the low pressure center passes by and the cold air gushes in, winds should pick up out of the northwest at 15-35mph. This will make tomorrow’s 30s feel like 20s.

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