Cold Night Ahead, No Flurries For Christmas
There were a few flurries and pockets of sleet in the north and eastern sections of Middle Tennessee this morning before skies cleared out. After a windy day in the 40s, temps will drop to low to mid 20s by daybreak. The westerly wind will die down to around 5 mph by midnight.
The snow chances for Christmas look pretty slim. The upper level low dives further south on the models, and moisture is extremely lacking. I hope you have a very merry Christmas anyway! Temps should crack the low 50s Christmas afternoon.
Feels Like Winter
Temperatures are tumbling this morning on gusty westerly winds. We’ll be in the 30s most of today, with wind chills in the 20s! Early clouds will yield to late morning and afternoon sunshine, but highs will only be in the lower 40s.
There was a brief round of flurries and light sleet this morning (7:00 am in Nashville). We anticipate dry weather on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Travel around the Mid-South this holiday season looks good.
No Severe Storms, But Windy Anyway!
8pm Current Conditions in Middle Tennessee with gusts 30 mph our higher hi-lighted in red.
The storms are not showing signs of being severe, as our dew points remain low. However, the winds wrapping into the strong low pressure system passing to our northwest are quite strong. As anticipated, we are seeing wind gusts in the 35-40 mph category.
We may still have a little lightning and thunder, but at this time, I don’t see the storms as being severe. However, the wind gusts may make one think so.
Get ready for a windy and cold Sunday. I can’t rule out a flurry or two north and east of Nashville in the morning, but we are expecting sunshine by afternoon.
Windy Night, Few Storms, Cold and Windy Sunday
Today’s winds so far didn’t quite live up to 35-40 mph gusts (highest I saw so far was 29 mph), but they still might tonight as a strong low pressure center passes to our northwest. Storms should push across Middle Tennessee tonight, crossing the Tennessee River in the vicinity of 9pm, and into Nashville by 11pm to midnight (give or take an hour or two). I do not see this as a big severe weather outbreak because our dew points are only in the 40s, and may not have a chance to go much higher before the showers & storms arrive. However, there could be some lightning and thunder, and the winds will be strong enough from the south to make some people think the storms are severe.
On Sunday, it will be breezy and chilly. There will be some early morning cloudiness and perhaps a flurry or two in our northern and eastern counties. Skies will clear out by afternoon, and highs will only be in the mid 40s.
Regarding Christmas Eve and Christmas Day: The models don’t look as optimistic about snow/rain chances, keeping moisture to our south. However, with an upper level low passing close by, I still want to keep about a 20%-30% chance for a little snow or a rain/snow mix Christmas Eve through early Christmas morning. We’ll keep you posted.
Windy and Mild Today, Rain Tonight
Temperatures will reach the lower 60s today, despite some cloud cover. The reason for the warmth: strong winds from the south. Gusts will reach 30 mph this afternoon and 40 mph tonight. Expect dry weather if you’re braving the mall this morning or afternoon (you brave soul). Rain and some thunder will push in later this evening and tonight. Wet weather is possible in Nashville after 9:00 pm. Rain totals should be less than 1/2″ in most places. In the wake of tonight’s system it will be much colder tomorrow, with highs only in the middle 40s.
PS - Happy first day of winter! The solstice occurred at 12:08 am this morning.
Lots To Talk About…First Of All Some Serious Winds On Saturday
Winds on Saturday should pick up out of the south at 15-30 mph with gusts to 35-40 mph. That could be dangerous for anyone who tries to go on a boat on an area lake. High profile vehicles will be affected, as well. And don’t think about going up on the roof to put more Christmas lights.
Temperatures will push into the mid 60s on Saturday. Then there is a chance for storms overnight as a cold front pushes in. Those storms should push across Middle Tennessee from west to east between around 10pm and 3am. Some of those storms may be on the strong side, so we will watch them on Stormtracker. I don’t expect a widespread severe weather outbreak, but a few individual storms might get strong.
On Sunday, temps are about 20 degrees colder with a northwest wind.
About Christmas…You know how Jeff has talked about the models “flip flopping”? Well, the latest 12 AVN/GFS run shows a snow or rain snow mix moving in, changing to rain during the day. If this pans out, we won’t be breaking out the snow sleds, but maybe we can get to see some snow on Christmas. We will keep you posted.
Christmas Day Update
The infamous GFS “flip” is shown here. Remember just two days ago we looked at a 6z run and it showed a whooper snow. Now it shows no precipitation at all and mostly sunny skies. Still keeping rain in the forecast for the 25th until the 12z run comes out.
Fog, Clouds to Start
For many this is the last work/school day before the long holiday week starts. Our Friday starts with some fog and cloud cover; we should see a little sunshine by afternoon. Highs today in the 60’s by afternoon, a nice day to end Fall with. Winter starts just after midnight tomorrow but starts with mild weather. Mostly cloudy and very windy by afternoon as an approaching cold front brings in yet another round of rain (and maybe a few storms) for Saturday night and through the overnight on Sunday. The winds turn to the NW Sunday morning; we start the day in the upper 40’s but will watch the temperatures drop a little through the day despite some afternoon sunshine. If you are going to the Titans game it’ll be dry but cold and a little breezy during the mid-day (the game isn’t until 3:15p). Below are the forecasted highs for the day, below that where Predictor puts the rain at midnight tomorrow.
Rain Pushes In…
At 11:00 AM the rain was knocking on Davidson County’s door. All areas west of I-65 have seen rain before midday.
Rumbles of thunder (a sign of heavy downpours) are also out there, although no severe weather is expected today or tonight. There are tornado watch boxes near the Gulf Coast on the southern periphery of this system.
The rain will continue through rush hour and this evening. As a matter of fact, it looks wet through midnight in most spots. Be careful on the roads!
Afternoon Rain Ahead
We’ll start this morning with some fog and clouds moving in. Highs today will again get into the mid-50’s. By afternoon we’ll have rain engulf our area with some areas of heavier rain (a few storms are possible but we are not expecting severe weather). The rain chances continue tonight and into the overnight hours. By tomorrow we’ll have it dry out with a little sunshine and highs in the 60’s. Here is where Predictor puts the rain chances for tonight:
