It was 72 already at 11 am this morning, so I’ve upped the ante to 76 this afternoon. 72 already ties the record, 76 will obliterate it! This one is 134 years old!
Showers push in tomorrow as we begin a gradual cool down.
If you were with me here last night or watched News 2 at 10pm, I noted that the newest model runs were showing a chance for rain to change to snow Saturday afternoon and evening. I also noted that it’s too early to get carried away as the models can flip flop. Here is the latest. Below is the newest GFS/AVN run valid Saturday at 6pm (00z Sunday):
The top map is isobars and thickness lines. The bottom is 6 hour precip and 850 millibar temps. The isobars outline the Gulf low that passes through Mississippi and Alabama into northern Georgia. The temperatures are too warm at first for snow in Nashville. But as the low passes by, and the cold air drops in, this model run still indicates a changeover to snow Saturday afternoon and evening. It may begin as snow in northwest Middle Tennessee and/or West Kentucky where temps are initially colder. The above map shows the 540 thickness line (actually 5400 meters, usually the rain snow line) getting past Nashville by Saturday evening, as well as the freezing line at 850 millibars (about 5,000 ft) shown on the precip map.
Once again, it is way too early to get carried away, much less attempt to forecast amounts, but I know you want to see the latest!
To learn more about “thickness lines” read below:
This represents the thickness in meters between the 500 mb pressure surface and the 1000 mb surface. This is directly related to mean layer temperature and is often used to determine precipitation type. The 5400 thickness line is often referred to as the rain/snow line. Also, it is also known that surface pressure systems tend to move along thickness lines.
Snow or not? What about it people?
I think yes. But not too much accumulation. As always, most moisture will be gone by the time the cold air is here.
Since the 540 line is usually the rain/snow line, what does the 57 line down in Florida and the 510 line up in Ontario usually designate?
The Huntsville media has also picked up on this as well, one suggests possible ice event. With the pictures of the wintery stuff out west will have to watch this one for sure.
Alabama WX is predicting 6 inches in Nashville. Don’t know. Have to wait and see.
http://www.jamesspann.com/viewerpixmaster/0907/gfssnow.jpg
PEEP THIS OUT 6 INCHES IN NASH VEGAS.. ACCORDING TO THIS MODEL RUN
Here we are again… another winter living and dying by the track of the Low.
We’re discussing the models as they come in at Tennesseewx.com
I can’t beleive we are even thinking about snow. I have all my windows open, enjoying this warm day.
I just looked on weather.com and they said that now there is a 70% chance of rain on Saturday with few snow showers on Sunday…bummer!!!
keep in mind Cindy weather,com is significantly behind the models posted here. They are conservative.
also, this is a relatively new development on models, so later forecasts are more likely to resemble this trend. Also, many places wait for two or more runs before they start conforming to make sure that the model isn’t bad for the one run. anyways, pay attention to nws before you pay attention to wx.com, nws is much more focussed on detail, wx.com is a large scale corporation that oftentimes automates forecasts.
18z is not as favorable for snow, though.
this latest run starts snow a little later and a little less but its still showing snow
You cant go by run 2 run
Go by the pattern and just know that snow should be in the nashville vicinity sometime Saturday..
The more pronounced details will come out on fri as to guessing how much will actually fall
You never want to be in the bullseye, 4-5 days out, as we are. The models will trend away from you. Everyone needs to try and be conservative. Information on storm over at http://www.tennesseewx.com
Very interesting look with the computer models….I’ll be holding my breath that they’ll be consistent all the way to Saturday.
http://cookevilleweatherguy.blogspot.com
I don’t care what the 18z says because it is just one model run. The 0z may look the exact opposite. You never know what the models will do next. To Jim in Spring Hill. The 510 line is arctic air and the 570 is tropical air. ?Tu` entiendo?
i’m not going to panic either…weather.com has always been wacked in the past with any forecast > 3 days out…and again, almost every outlying area will be 2-3 degrees colder than in nashville…which can make a huge difference in what type of precip falls (think feb. ‘06 snow episode)…aren’t the 18z runs usually the LEAST of all the runs to consider anyhow?
Well Cameron, everyone jumped on last nights 18z run which started this whole conspiracy of winter weather. So Really, if you ask me, the 18z is no less reliable than the rest.
The 18z is the usually the warmest run but some snow is even painted there too. The 0z will be interesting!
At least it seem to be.
please explain to me what the 18z, etc means…
I saw that video on alabamawx predicting 6inches
of snow in Nashville thats, blown way out of
poportion, i busted out laughing when i saw that.
(Prediction)the 540 line will slide just north
of us and kentucky will be bragging about how
much snow there getting while we’re getting rained
on (OR) if the 540 line does stay to our south it
won’t stick, it was 76 degrees today the ground
is not gonna be cold enough to stick.
James Alabamawx never predicted that much here. That is what the GFS suggested. Matthew 18z is just time… 6z is the 6am run 12z is the noon run, 18z is the 6pm run and 0z is the midnight run. I am not positive but I think z stands for zulu (time)
There are 4 times a day the GFS model runs, 00z, 06z, 12z, and 18z. Thats all. The 00z and 12z have more observations and information ingested into them I believe.
z is for zulu, technically the runs will usually come in a little late then. and matthew, and like 18z are times when the model updates itself. for the gfs, 6 and 18 are oftentimes thought of as less accurate than 0 and 12. anyways james, don’t get on that whole track where everyone thinks that if the ground is warm several days before that snow will not stick. just as long as temps are 30 or below, snow should stick. the concern should be if temps dont manage to get cool enough saturday. i like the spanish comment there clay. sort of funny.
Thanks, Yeah that is my “C” grade Survival Spanish. I don’t know how to put in the accent marks, tildes and stuff like that in properly so if anyone knows how drop me a comment at MTWC or somethin’.
does not matter, i barely know english myself
I do know if you want to make an accent above an e, press alt 130.
Spanish isn’t my thing. I’m taking Latin.
Spero bonus hiberna
esta es america y nosotros solamente hablamos ingles. If you know spanish then what I just said will be quite ironic
This is America and we only speak English. Is that right?
Does the GFS look even colder now than before??
4-5 days out, these models can sure change a lot. Don’t get your hopes up just yet. I would still love to see snow! Remember though its Tennessee were talking about.
I agree with you on that Weatherguy…
http://cookevilleweatherguy.blogspot.com
Well the 0Z GFS is out. The track of the low is slower and farther east than what was suggested on the 18z. Overall this run was slightly snowier than the 18z also. This run suggests 1-2 inches of snow here after temps fall below freezing in town.
Hr 96 looks pretty good.
I still am not liking the prospects of this storm. I am afraid the low is not gonna track far enough to the southeast. Not trying to be negative at all, just want everyone to remain conservative, because this storm is gonna go down to the wire on several issues. Gonna Be Tricky. If I had to forecast for tv, I would stay conservative until Friday Night.
Come on now yall.. You gotta be gettin a lil excited.. Told myself I wouldnt get excited; BUT ITS HAD NOT TO!
had = HARD lol
Very hard not too get excited. I will say the models still depict maybe a quick dusting or inch for plateau. Just be leary.
Even though these models can’t go out as far as we need the to to predict snow, notice that the NAM and SREF are much slower and farther south on the track of the low at hour 84.
Precip. is looking to hurry out awful fast too. It will be close, but right now, currently, I see areas on the Plateau (Mike) as being the only areas to get excited. Alot can change as we are very far out, but just reminding ya’ll these things usually dont work out when they are on the line, such as this one is.
lets say every thanged worked out perfectly how much do yall expect to fall and do yall thank any will stick to like the road or driveway…
Kevin, in a picture perfect forecast we would see 1-2″ with 2-3″ on the Plateau. I don’t know about much accumulation on the roads. At best a slushy inch or less but on the driveway more. Remember that roads will probably be salted regardless of how this snow pans out… your driveway probably won’t. BTW… the ground will take its time cooling considering it was in the 60s and 70s this week. Check out the 21z sref mean. This model has the low 150 miles farther south than the GFS. This model is like the nam, it specializes in short term forecasts.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21PRSUS_21z/srefloop.html
once again, air temp at the time of snowfall will be the number of concern, not the previous temps. ground can lose heat faster than u might think.
Seems like a pretty interesting model run Clay. Yeah I see what matt is talking about. For example my ground air temp is 64.8 degrees; my ground temp is is 10 degrees cooler at 54 degrees.
weather.com updated their forecast, now 60% chance for snow on sat night. even though they tend to be less accurate, it is interesting that they are now forecasting snow (with a low of 24 might i add)
Crap weather.com is forecasting snow… that means it won’t happen!
Well, looks like NWS is downplaying everything now.. Ughhh. The mositure is going to hurry out of here and leave us with a few flakes in the air.. Good thing, I wasnt too excited..
[...] you read my entry yesterday, I mentioned that it would be too warm for snow in Nashville during the day on Saturday, but as the [...]