Another Wet Day…
Very early this morning (around 4:30 am) rain covered just about every square mile of Middle Tennessee.
The rain will be steady early this morning, but will be “off and on” the rest of the day.
Aside from the wet weather, look out for chilly temperatures. At 4:00 am, Nashville was 71 degrees with gusty south winds. An hour later at 5:00 am the winds were northwest and the temperature dropped to 66 degrees. By late morning, temperatures will fall to 60 degrees and stay there through the afternoon.
Rain Totals Through Midday
Through midday, 0.5″ of rain fell in Nashville according to radar-estimated totals. Heavier amounts have been observed in western Davidson County.
Click the link and you’ll find that the most rain has fallen west of I-65 so far today. 1″ to 2″ amounts are shown from Waynesboro to Hohenwald to Centerville to Dickson up toward Ashland City and Springfield.
Areas east of I-65 are missing out on the soaking rains…for now. Hardly a drop of rain has fallen from Winchester to Manchester to McMinnville to Smithville to Cookeville to Gainesboro to Celina. These areas should see steady, occasionally heavy rain later tonight and tomorrow.
It will be interesting to check the CoCoRaHS rainfall totals tomorrow morning after 7:00 am (when they’re updated).
Wet Wx Continues
Steady and heavy rain was around Nashville from late morning through midday. Occasional showers will continue the rest of the afternoon. We expect another round of steady and heavy rain tonight and Tuesday. I’d estimate rainfall totals from this morning through Tuesday afternoon will range from 2″ to 3″ in most places, with isolated higher amounts.
The heaviest rain will fall today, tonight and tomorrow, but we’ll mention some additional showers on Wednesday, Thursday and perhaps even into Friday. This pattern is good news for the drought. It won’t erase our rainfall deficit, but it will put a dent in it.
Be careful on the roads!
Short Term Forecasts
At 10:15 am a swath of heavy showers was moving north along and west of the I-65 corridor.
Movement was 25 mph.
In Nashville…expect steady rain now through most of the lunch hour.
Places with steady rain ending by late morning…Linden, Hohenwald, Columbia, Centerville, Spring Hill.
Places with steady rain through midday…Franklin, Brentwood, Dickson, Waverly.
Places with steady rain through early afternoon…Lebanon, Gallatin, Springfield, Ashland City.
Places with steady rain starting again later this morning and lasting through early afternoon…Erin, Dover, Clarksville.
Generally speaking, the rain is spotty in coverage east of I-65.
We’ll hope the rain shifts just east so Murfreesboro and other towns can get in on the much-needed moisture.
Rain Arrives
We have very good chances for rain today and tomorrow as a strong low pressure system to our west brings up a fetch of moisture from the gulf. Expect a fews storms and some heavy rain (especially in the southern counties) this afternoon as the rain should be around tonight and tomorrow as well. Love to see rain on Predictor, this is how it looks by afternoon:
Rain On The Way, & It Might Stick Around For A Few Days
News 2 Stormtracker at 5:22pm Sunday
As a cut off low out west pushes towards the east, it will help draw up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. We expect rain and thundershowers to push into Middle Tennessee from the south during the day on Monday. The rain chances should be at about 80% by Monday afternoon through Monday night and Tuesday. I think that many areas will see 1-2″ of rain by Tuesday evening. Rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday will drop to about 30%, followed by more storms Thursday night and Friday before clearing out over the weekend. See our 7 Day Forecast to the right.
Warm Today, Changes Ahead
Expect quiet and warm weather as we finish the weekend. This morning temperatures are in the 40s and 50s, but sunshine will lift us to the lower and middle 80s this afternoon. Winds from the south will blow at 10 to 20 mph.
Clouds increase tonight, with scattered showers around the area by Monday morning. Rain, heavy at times, is in the forecast Monday through Tuesday as a front slowly crosses Tennessee. Temperatures Monday will be in the low 70s, but on Tuesday and Wednesday we should stay in the 50s!
How much rain will we see this week? It depends. A “cut-off” low is the culprit for the cool and wet weather. The computer models are struggling to resolve just how long the upper level low will linger over the Mid-South. The longer it spins overhead, the longer we mention clouds, spotty showers and chilly temperatures.
When forecasting temperatures at the ground, I keep a close eye on temperatures aloft. Although the predicted temperatures below are reported in degrees Celsius, you get a good feel that significant changes are in the works this week.
Predicted 7:00 pm temperature (C) for 850 millibar level (about 5,000 feet aloft)
Sunday = 17
Monday = 14
Tuesday = 1
Wednesday = -2
Thursday = 1
Friday = 10
Saturday = 10
Check our seven day forecast to see how cool temperatures will be down at the ground this week.
Something Unusual in the 7 Day Forecast: Rain Chances Most Of The Upcoming Week
AVN/GFS model forecast of 500mb for Wednesday.
I’m getting a little ahead of myself with a sunny Sunday in the forecast with highs in the mid 80s but:
I don’t remember when we had rain chances for 5 of the 7 days in the 7 Day forecast. As we have said, it is too late for agriculture and we will never catch up on the 16″ deficit. However, rain could go a long way to fill up reservoirs, bring the water table up, keep the fire danger down, and help salvage a little fall color.
The above map shows a “cut-off low” moving into the area this week. Cut-off lows tend to be slow moving, and hence rain chances could stick around for several days. In addition, on Monday, some Gulf moisture should move into Middle Tennessee well ahead of the cut off low. It all adds up to rain chances starting Monday, and sticking around through Friday. It won’t rain continuously for 5 days, but in an “of and on” fashion through the period. My guess is that by Friday, we will have gotten 2-3″ of rain spread across the 5 day period.
One other note: It is going to be a chilly rain with daytime highs possibly only in the 50s Tuesday through Friday.
Another Cool Night & Then A Sunday Warm Up
What a nice weekend! Highs on Saturday pushed into the mid 70s. Tonight we will see about 50 in the city with 40s once again in the outlying areas, but on Sunday we should hit about 85 in abundant sunshine. The record for October 21st is 88 set in 1947.
After that, believe it or not, we have rain chances for most of this week. I’ll have more on that in my next entry.
Weekend Forecast & Changes Ahead
Chilly conditions for the early risers this weekend. Early morning numbers are down in the 40s, but sunshine rules the day. Temperatures climb to the upper 70s this afternoon, nearly 10 degrees above average. Expect a quick cool down this evening and tonight; by Sunday daybreak we’ll bottom out in the 40s. Highs tomorrow will be in the middle 80s! Not a record, but awfully close.
Look for a big pattern change, starting Monday. An upper level low pressure will disconnect from the jet stream (a “cut-off” low) and spin in place over Arkansas for several days. Southerly winds will bring moisture to Tennessee and provide good rain chances on Monday and Tuesday. We may be able to squeeze out a few more showers on Wednesday and Thursday. Cool air aloft should keep temperatures in the 60s next Tuesday through Friday…so it will finally feel a bit more like Fall.
