Star in the Clouds
Do you see it??
Johnny and Jeanette Childers were out on their motorcycle/sidecar last Sunday and snapped this interesting batch of clouds near Portland.
It looks like someone punched out the “star” with a cookie cutter.
Florida Low Teasing Forecasters With Rain Chances In The 7 Day Forecast
Last Sunday night I was searching the long range models for rain chances. As you know, last weeks rains were good, but we will need more within the next week to keep things from getting too dry again (fire danger, low river levels). The models showed that most of the week looked dry until Friday and Saturday when the upper low you see above (over Florida) sent some moisture our way as it drifted west northwestward toward Louisiana. But then the models flip flopped, keeping the moisture to our south in the Gulf States. I had been teased!
The newest information is now in, and it still indicates that over the weekend the moisture would stay to our south and southwest with only a few isolated to scattered t’storms on Sunday.
However, I hope that I am not being teased again: The newest model runs bring the rain into Arkansas by Sunday, and then push some of it eastward towards Tennessee for Monday and Tuesday. That would bring better rain chances to us early next work week.
Yes, once again, it’s the 6th and 7th day of the 7 Day forecast. It could be a tease again, but I hope not!
More of the Same
Hot and dry weather continues. Okay, not as hot as August (the last 100 degree day was 25 days ago and we are all glad to see that in the rearview mirror) but still above normal. The typical high this time of year going into Fall is around 80 degrees; we’ll be close to 90 by the time we close out the workweek. Dry weather continues though we are keeping an eye to the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical system is forecast to develop off the west coast of Florida. This system has at least a remote chance of giving us some rain by weekend. Below are the forecasted highs for today:
This Week’s Wx Pattern: Same Ol’ Stuff
Nashville has enjoyed measurable rain on six of the past nine days. As I mentioned last week, the moisture is putting a small dent in the drought. We’ve still got a long way to go to erase our rain deficits. The forecast this week isn’t very encouraging when it comes to wet weather.
A large ridge of high pressure will keep Tennessee warm and dry this week. The map below is valid on Tuesday afternoon; you’re looking at predicted conditions in the middle atmosphere up around 18,000 feet. The upper ridge stretches from the eastern Great Lakes through the Ohio River Valley, the Mid-South and down to the central Gulf Coast.
By Friday afternoon, the ridge has shifted shape a little but still dominates our weather pattern. That will mean dry conditions and highs well into the 80s for the foreseeable future. As a matter of fact, a check of the afternoon GFS model run indicates that some 90-degree weather may be in the works for late this work week and beyond. Ugh!
Back to Drought
Just looked at the latest 10-day forecast and it looks very dry. The basic weather pattern over the summer falls right back in as we count down to Fall (this Sunday morning) as we go across the rest of September. As it looks right now not much in rain chances. It takes awhile for a drought to build, its going to take awhile for it go away. No much reason to pin our hopes on Sept. or Oct. anyway; they are some of our driest months typically. Extreme drought still stretches over Tn and Al.
Dry Weather This Week
Mostly sunny skies today and a big warm-up; we go from the 50’s to the 80’s by afternoon. Dry weather returns to middle Tennessee; we don’t have any significant rain in the forecast again until the end of the week. Fall starts next Sunday but we’ll enjoy a string of late-summer weather this week. The typical high this time of year is around 80; we’ll get close to 90 by Friday. Below are the forecasted highs for our area:
Temperatures Edging Upward
We reached 80 degrees this afternoon in Nashville. After a pleasantly cool night tonight with 54 in the city and 49-53 in the outlying areas, highs will jump to the mid 80s Monday afternoon. We could see upper 80s later this week.
What we need is some more rain. If you look at the 7 Day Forecast, there are some chances by Friday and Saturday possibly from a system out of the Gulf. By then, it will have been about a week since the last rainfall from Humberto, so we will really need it to keep the fire danger down.
Remember?
The last time the Colts lost a football game was here in Nashville. Rob Bironas nailed a ridiculous 60 yard field goal to clinch it in the final few seconds of the 4th quarter. A 20 mph tailwind probably didn’t hurt!
The weather for tailgating and the game today looks good; a mix of clouds and sun. I can’t rule out an isolated sprinkle this morning, but I wouldn’t sweat it if I had tickets to LP Field. I don’t, so I won’t. Temperatures will be in the 60s this morning and 70s during game time. Go Titans!
Sunday Forecast
Looks like a mix of clouds and sun this morning as an upper disturbance slides across the Mid-South. StormTracker has picked up a few sprinkles early today, but they will be few and far between. The big story this morning: temperatures! Outside of Nashville the numbers dipped to the 40s, which is the coolest it’s been since May. The Fall-like weekend weather will be short-lived; highs jump back into the 80s with dry weather expected this work/school week. It was nice while it lasted!
A Fall Like Saturday Night…Nice Sunday With A Few High Clouds
If you are up late tonight or early tomorrow morning, a jacket will be in order. Nashville may see a low of about 50 degrees due to the concrete and asphalt. However, the outlying areas will easily drop to the mid to upper 40s.
On Sunday, some high clouds will be around until the afternoon. Temps will finally top out in the upper 70s by around 4pm.
The 7 Day (to the right) has good news and bad news. The good news is the temperatures. The bad news is no significant rain chances. We hope the long range models change their tune, and promise us some more rain.
