We’ve seen a few scattered showers and t’storms today, but there is more to come. Notice the activity lined up near the Mississippi River and in Arkansas. That’s headed our way, and should be pushing through late tonight after midnight and last through the mid afternoon hours tomorrow, and longer for our eastern counties. I think that most areas could see about a half an inch of rain, with some areas receiving up to an inch from the heavier thunderstorms.

It has been since Friday the 14th that we received any widespread rain.

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We wake up this morning to see rain and storms just to our west and clipping our northwest corner. This line of rain should drift east as the day continues; the best chance for rain for the Nashville/Murfreesbroro/Columbia area comes this afternoon and tonight. A cold front is due to arrive sometime tomorrow afternoon. Ahead of that front the rain chances continue through the overnight and at least through the first half of the day tomorrow. Cooler weather ahead: yesterday for the fourth day in a row we hit the low 90’s; tomorrow we’ll be a good ten degrees cooler than that. It doesn’t appear we’ll be getting in the 90’s again this season. We’ll end September with warm and dry weather with highs getting into the mid-80’s.

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There were a few isolated showers today in Middle Tennessee including the Franklin, Brentwood, and Nashville area.

Tomorrow, we expect chances to pick up to about 50% as a cold front approaches from the northwest, and an upper level disturbance passes over Middle Tennessee. The front will not pass through Nashville until Thursday morning, so shower chances will stick around through then for Nashville, and through the mid afternoon hours for the eastern sections of Middle Tennessee.

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We’ll again get into the low 90’s today with a 20% chance of an afternoon storm. The rain chances will pick up tomorrow as a cold front moves toward us. You can expect highs closer to typical late September weather by Thursday but we will still stay above normal as we close out the month. Tomorrow and Thursday looks like our best chance of rain for the rest of September. It looks like yet another month of below normal rainfall, making for 11 in a row at Nashville. It also looks like we’ll have only three of four days of below normal highs in the month.

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This picture taken by Jeff and Beth Maaske in Brentwood shows a thunderstorm anvil just west of Murfreesboro with a beautiful moon looming just to the left.

Katherine Hill in Gallatin took this picture of a rainbow created by a dissipating shower near sunset.

That same shower gave Jay Kirkland of Mt. Juliet a chance to get a beautiful shot of the rainbow across Old Hickory Lake.

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If you are following Stormtracker above, you see the small showers that have broken out. Only about 20% of us will see one of these showers before they die out at sunset, and they won’t last more than 15 minutes in any individual location. Better shower and storm chances are coming our way Wednesday evening through half a day on Thursday as a cold front pushes our way.

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The afternoon temperature will reach into the low 90’s today; the record high for Nashville is 94 degrees set in 1961 on this date. We are forecasting a high of 93 for the first full day of Fall. So much for us cooling down in the shorter days.

Rain chances are not so great today, around 10 to 20 percent chance with the favored area along the Tennessee river west of Nashville. The rain chances really don’t improve until a cold front comes through on Thursday. That will knock down the highs into the low 80’s, still above normal for this time of year (what is typical? upper 70’s!)

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If you follow some of the moisture to our south in Alabama and Mississippi you can see it is moving generally northwestward. This is an extra batch of tropical moisture moving out of the Gulf. It is not associated with the depression that moved ashore in Florida Friday evening which is now in Arkansas and Texas.

With that movement, chances for rain are best west of Nashville. We’ll give Nashville about a 20% chance on Monday, but as you can see above, the numbers go up as you head west.

The rest of us get better chances for showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday when a front pushes in from the northwest.

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The first day of fall, and summer just won’t quit. It was very warm yesterday and we’ll add to the heat as we finish the weekend. Highs will reach the lower 90s with plenty of sunshine and humidity. Overnight lows will fall to the upper 60s in the city, but middle 60s in the outlying spots. We keep 90 degree weather in the forecast Monday and Tuesday; there may be an isolated shower on the western fringe of the mid-state, but West Tennessee will have better rain chances those days. A front approaches on Wednesday and that will up our rain threat. The models aren’t sure whether the front pushes through on Wednesday or holds off until Thursday, but one of those days we should finally catch a round of some much-needed moisture. Behind that system: fall arrives, just a few days late, with sunshine and highs near 80 degrees for Friday.

Be cautious of the warmth if you’ve got outdoor plans today; it can be deceptive this time of year!

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Fall officially begins tomorrow morning at 4:51am. However, we are calling for a high in the low 90s Sunday afternoon. Not very fall like.

What is more important is whether or not we see rain anytime soon.

The tropical depression that came ashore last night is scooting towards northern Louisiana and Texas. It will curve northeast by Monday and may bring a few showers to our western counties on Monday and Tuesday, but that’s about it.

A front approaches Wednesday night and Thursday that should supply a chance for showers and storms for the rest of us. It may get a little shot of tropical moisture from a second system which may push into Texas early next week.

Let’s hope so. It’s been over a week since we received rain.

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