If you’re tired of the cold weather, this week’s trend is for you! Monday will bring us a warmer but very windy day with highs in the mid 50s and winds SW 15-25 with gusts to 30. By the end of the week, temps will be in the 60s. Our good friends at the National Weather Service looked up some interesting statistics for us today as you can see above. This info was on their “Area Forecast Discussion” today which you can read by clicking below on “read more”.
But this time of the year, warming trends could spell chances for strong storms. We expect to see thunderstorms next weekend, and we may have to watch them carefully for the possibility of severe weather. It’s way too early to tell how it will pan out, but it is something we will be talking about as the week wears on.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
224 PM CST SUN FEB 18 2007
.DISCUSSION…MID TN HAD A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES READINGS
THIS AFTERNOON…FROM THE MID 20S IN SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST. SKIES WERE
MAINLY SUNNY…BUT PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING
AND MOVING IN FROM KY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE 20S…BUT
OUR SNOW COVERED NORTHEAST COUNTIES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THEY BACK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH.
MAIN STORY FOR THE FORECAST IS A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP. MOST OF
FEBRUARY HAS BEEN WELL BELOW NORMAL. AT BNA…9 DAYS OF THIS MONTH
HAVE BEEN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE
ENTIRE WEEK TO COME WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL…AND SOME OF THOSE
DAYS COULD BE 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ALONG WITH THE WARMER
WEATHER WILL COME MORE MOISTURE…AND A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY
THE WEEKEND.
THE WARMUP WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE…UP O 25 MPH AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP WELL INTO
THE 50S THE FIRST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE AND
MOISTURE IS NOT VERY DEEP…SO MEDIUM POPS WILL SUFFICE. WITHOUT
WIDESPREAD RAIN…TEMPERATURES COULD RISE INTO THE 60S WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
NEXT SYSTEM FOR LATE WEEK LOOKS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH A DEEP
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS AND TRACKING TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. SPC HAS A LARGE AREA OUTLINED IN THEIR 4-8 DAY
PRODUCT INCLUDING MID TN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS…
NASHVILLE 26 56 43 59 / 0 0 30 50
CLARKSVILLE 24 57 45 58 / 0 0 30 50
CROSSVILLE 17 47 39 52 / 0 0 30 60
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…NONE.
Snow this weekend, Storms next weekend?
in case you haven’t already heard, there may be a threat for severe weather this weekend. There is. A storm system will come out of the Rockies…
Read more at MTWC. Click my name.
Clay thanks for the info man.I moved from sandiego in july at the tail end of the thunderstorm season and have been through 1 tornado warning back in september.I was scared but I liked the excitement and have been looking foward to this season but I have had a couple of nightmares about tornados and I’m realy nervous now that severe weather season is at our door step.I don,t have a good feeling about next weekend and I know how many lives were wrecked last april because me and my girlfriend drove by the houses and knew we were not in sandiego anymore.I never thought I would see somthing like that in my life I mean I have seen more rain in tenn in one week than we would have in sd in 1 year.Our yearly rainfall total in sd is 9inches compared with 50 here in tenn.Anyway everyone stay safe and I hope my feelings are wrong about this weekend
I know mike it’s dumb to get teased 240 hours out. I just get into the long range models. ps love james spann. and good pics
Cameron…
I was just giving you a hard time. I knew you’d get the joke about ‘voo-doo’ land! Thanks for the compliment on the pics….
Warm weather is coming soon!
You guys are getting worried way too early. Its still a week away. When we say that seven day forcasts aren’t always reliable, that includes those with severe weather, not just the ones with snow. We’ll just have to wait and see. I’m from cookeville, and we always seem to dodge the old proverbial bullet when it comes to severe storms, so im not worried yet.
It may be a week away, but it’s kind of hard to not get thunderstorms when you have the instability that we should have on Saturday. (humidity, warm temps, dewpoints)Ya know what I’m sayin’?
I’m more concerned than I worrying. What ever happens go to the MTWC for all the latest NWS Advisories and Nowcast Advisories; excusive to MTWC.
Click my name to see the MTWC temperature scenario. You will see what I mean by warm temps.
00UTC shows a tight 0C/10C line Sunday early morning at 850mb heights which should help to increase instability at the time of what looks to be a squall line in middle TN. The way it looks, we won’t be seeing too much supercell activity but it is too early to tell, but still think better chances exist for a squall line with this system. GFS hints at high rh’s ahead of the system as well as warm temps near 70F so dewpoints should be impressive on along this squall feature. Would not be surprised to see hail and downbursts within the severe limit. Will have to wait and see on tornado threat for now, don’t want to say anything too soon. The way GFS has this timed it appears bulk of severe wx will occur after sunset Saturday, so this may help to lower severe wx chance but will not eliminate the chance. Again, this may be too early to go off of GFS timing here.