Archive for February, 2007

Snow!

Saturday, February 17th, 2007

Snow is moving across middle Tennessee this morning, its been awhile since we’ve had such a well behaved snow event (in other words: acting like predicted). Expect about an inch of snow from a Waverly to McMinnville line north, higher amounts in the hills west and east of Nashville and the plateau. The snow will be going on most of the the day with the heavier amounts during the morning. This evening as the atmosphere cools down with a cold front coming through we’ll have another nice little round. It should be tapering off on the plateau by Sunday morning. Highs today will get into the mid-30’s so during the day we might see a little sleet mixed in. Below are the forecasted snowfall totals for our area:

Snow Amounts

Justin is out live this morning playing in the snow, I’m here in the forecast center keeping an eye on the snow. Stay tuned!

Hickman County Snow Pictures

Saturday, February 17th, 2007

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Light Snow Moving Across Middle Tennessee

Saturday, February 17th, 2007

Light snow, occasionally moderate, is moving across Middle Tennessee early Saturday morning. I’ve made calls west of Nashville (Montgomery Co., Houston Co., Humphreys Co., Hickman Co.) and have heard reports of a dusting on the ground. The air aloft is pretty cold, so this quick-moving batch of snow should be mainly light and dry. This early morning batch of snow will only last a couple of hours and will should clear the Cumberland Plateau by 9:00 am or so.

More posted in a little bit. In the meantime, we appreciate your snow observations in the comments. Thanks!

Snow Show? Update

Friday, February 16th, 2007

The first batch of snow showers will be light and mainly across northern middle Tennessee and Kentucky well before daybreak.

Nashville’s temp plummeted to 23 degrees at 9pm only to jump up to 27 at 10pm. The southerly wind will continue to push temps up… above freezing by daybreak and until noonish.

Expect midday through evening snow showers with temps dropping again.

Up to an inch of snow possible with higher amounts (2-4″) across northern plateau and
possibly northwest corner (1-2″).

Weekend Snow May Mix With Rain/Sleet During The Day Saturday, Then Back To Snow

Friday, February 16th, 2007

Snow Forecast 1.jpg

Davis here, on my day off again. I can’t help doing an entry if there is a possibility of snow.
Before I even get started, expect some changes as time goes on. But here’s the latest:

The models are all consistent today with bringing snow into the area by sunrise Saturday morning. The trick here is what happens during the mid day and afternoon hours. A southwesterly wind is going to warm temperatures to the upper 30s during the day in much of Middle Tennessee. In the southern counties the temps could reach the low 40s changing all of the precip to rain. In Nashville, the snow could mix with sleet and rain during the mid day hours, then change back to snow by evening. Our eastern and northern counties may stay all snow.

As you know, forecasting snow amounts is hard enough, but when you throw those types of changes in, it can drive a meteorologist crazy. One thing I’ve learned in my 25 years of forecasting in Middle Tennessee, it never turns out exactly as you expected. Even when you hit it pretty good, there are always details that come out different than forecasted. If you like suspense, this is a thriller!

On the map above, we are saying near 1″ for Nashville and much of Middle Tennessee. Some of that area may be 1.5″.

If you are into technical stuff, click below. Jeff Ray recently got hold of a website that shows “snow algorithms” made from the outputs of two of the main models. It tries to predict how much the “water equivalent” will fluff up to when it becomes snow. It’s not always 10 to 1. That’s an approximation.
(more…)

Saturday Snow

Friday, February 16th, 2007

We have some sunshine today and some west wind to help push our temperatures just above freezing today. That’ll be the first time in two days…

Highs Today

Clouds come in this evening as a quick moving clipper dives across the midwest and turns NE just as it moves across Kentucky. During the overnight we’ll have some snow, it should be snowing we we wake up tomorrow morning. Not a lot of snow typically in this scenario but it could end up with an inch or so. It’ll get just above freezing tomorrow during the day so I expect the morning snow to change over to periods of rain/sleet. As the low pulls away and the winds turn back to the NW we’ll watch it all turn back over to snow. Up on the plateau you might not get that transition and end up with more snow than the basin area.

One more cold weekend but the weather pattern is changing. Next week we expect temperatures at least at normal if not warmer than that by end of the week (normal is in the low 50’s).

Next Week

Cold Continues

Thursday, February 15th, 2007

It wasn’t much but enough for Bobby & Virginia Bass to have some fun!
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Teens again tonight but drier air here at the surface means that any snow flurries should evaporate before reaching the ground… with the exception on a stray or two.

Cold again Friday but a more southerly fetch late in the day should push us above freezing:
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Saturday is a tough call simply because the models do not agree on timing. A couple want to bring the moisture in by daybreak…. that would mean snow from the start, could mix with rain as we reach highs near 40, and then back to lingering snow flurries by late evening.
OR, as other models suggest, moisture arrives midday after temps are above freezing and it begins as a light rain changing over to light snow by late evening.

It ain’t easy forecasting snow in middle Tennessee but I guess you have realized that by now!?!?

Snow Shots

Thursday, February 15th, 2007

Here’s a picture of the snow up in Overton County. Thanks Jennifer, you going to T it up anyway?
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Here’s a look at Spring Hill - A good dusting!

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Morning Snow

Thursday, February 15th, 2007

We’ve had enough flurry activity overnight to give some areas of middle Tennessee a dusting of snow this morning. The flurries leave out late morning, we’ll briefly see the sun a little before gathering again this afternoon. Late today we’ll likely see the flurries/light snow return. Today’s high will again be below freezing in most locations, a stready north wind will produce a wind chill in the teens all day long. Tonight some clearing and lows down in the teen’s, tomorrow some sunshine and highs in the mid-30’s (above freezing!).

Still looking at what’s heading our way Saturday morning and thinking snow. It will likely turn over to some sleet and rain during the day on Saturday before ending with some light snow Saturday night into Sunday morning. Lisa will have an update on this later this afternoon.

We’ve got some school delays and closing this morning, I’m updating the map as the morning moves along.

School Update

System Out West Looks Ominous, But Will Probably Only Bring Us Clouds, Perhaps Flurries

Wednesday, February 14th, 2007

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If you have been looking at radar views of Texas and the Southern Plains (Intellicast Radar Loop Click Here) you see a big area of snow moving eastward. It looks like it is heading straight for us. However, the cold and dry low level northwest flow moving into our area won’t allow the majority of the precipitation to make it to Middle Tennessee. The clouds at about 5,000 to 10,000 ft. will make it through (over the dry air), but that will probably only allow for a few flurries. It’s almost like we only get the clouds as they are “skimmed off of the top”.

Chances look better for snow on Saturday with another clipper that could bring accumulations to the northern half of Middle Tennessee, and possibly a rain snow mixture near the border with Alabama.

Bundle up! We don’t expect it to get above freezing again tomorrow, after overnight lows in the teens.


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