A Severe Thunderstorm Watch until Midnight for areas west of Nashville.
Of course, the storm line will also cross Nashville and the rest of middle Tennessee and we will monitor it through the night.
Large hail and strong winds are the most likely threat with this line of storms which should move through during the late evening to overnight hours. Not everyone will receive severe weather but isolated incidents are possible.
Hey lisa,
Is the line moving south east or just east? I cant seem to look at the radar in motion.
It looks like the storms are generally moving East along the cold front. For us to get some severe storms here in Middle TN I think more storms would have to develop along the line farther south. What do ya’ll think?
keep this post about weather guys. I’m heading out to babysit, be back later.
David is correct.. the storms are moving east along the frontal path but the front is sliding southeast.
While there is some chance weakening may occur as the line slides our way, a cool pocket aloft may keep the intensity up. The leading cell produced hail in southeast Missouri and is not crossing southern Illinois. It continues to look strong.
Hey Lisa, I know that with any severe storm there is the potential for a tornado, but how is the vorticity with this system? Is there a lot of rotation with this system? Or is it primarily a hail/wind event?
And you’re always so calm & even keeled when you’re on the air! A true pro!
JUST CURIOUS….IS ANYONE HAVING PROBLEMS LOADING MIDDLE TENNESSEE NWS OR IS IT JUST MY COMPUTER
I cant get the NWS Middle Tennessee one either, I can get everyone else. Humm perfect time for it to go down..
The storms to our northwest have shown some upper level rotation but hail is the biggest threat and that is verified with ground reports thusfar.
Yes, the Nashville National Weather Service internet feed is down… they are working on it.
I keep looking at the radar.. It looks like the storms are going north of tennesse. Mainly in Kentucky. Is this going to change?
Looks like the clarksville area is going to get it on the chin.
Here is the new mesoscale…
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0173
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0627 PM CST TUE FEB 20 2007
AREAS AFFECTED…SRN IL…SERN MO….NERN AR….WRN KY…WRN TN
CONCERNING…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 26…
VALID 210027Z - 210200Z
SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP GENERALLY EWD
ACROSS NRN/NWRN PORTIONS OF WATCH 26.
SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE NEAR SURFACE WAVE AND FRONTAL ZONE
FROM EXTREME NRN AR ACROSS THE MO BOOTHEEL REGION THIS EVENING.
LARGE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS SCOTT COUNTY MO
OVER THE PAST HOUR. DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING WITHIN
AN AXIS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
WAVE. AN INTENSE LEFT-MOVING STORM WAS TRACKING ENEWD TOWARD EXTREME
SRN IL ATTM…AND ADDITIONAL CELLS WERE STRENGTHENING WWD AND SWWD
ACROSS STODDARD…BUTLER…AND RIPLEY COUNTIES.
AIR MASS IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
UNSTABLE TO MAINTAIN ROBUST UPDRAFTS WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. RECENT STORM TRENDS AND LATEST LITTLE ROCK SOUNDING
INDICATED INTENSE UNIDIRECTIONAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR…ON THE ORDER OF
50-70KT…WAS RESULTING IN SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. GREATEST THREAT
WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LARGE HAIL FROM BOTH LEFT AND
RIGHT MOVING UPDRAFTS GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
FORCING FOR ASCENT. IF RIGHT-MOVING CELLS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE WHILE
DEVELOPING INTO LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS ALIGNED WITH MS RIVER OVER NEXT
HOUR OR SO…A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..CARBIN.. 02/21/2007
ATTN…WFO…LMK…OHX…PAH…MEG…LZK…SGF…
35508738 35439121 36779111 37288947 37288823 37008699
Everybody should keep watch on this Severe WX situation….
Tim
Model Madness! GFS Analysis - 2/20 has been released at the MTWC. Click my name.
Nowcast Advisories have begun to fly! Go to MTWC to see if your county is included.
Clay, These models are very impressive but these models seem to never pan out. This has the makings of an Accuweather forecast. The NWS here in Nashville is much more reliable and gets it right more times than Model Sadness. Appreciate your attempts at forecating but I will stick with the “known” sources for my weather predictions as will many others. I apppreciate your forecast though! Its good for everyone to look at these sources cause competition makes thangs better
It’s model analysis greengrass, keep that in mind. Clay is not claiming that these things will actually pan out. BTW GFS has been known to be pretty close that far out every once and a while.
Yes, I will make that more clear next time.
Lisa,
Is your thinking that we may still get some showers in Middle TN but that our severe weather threat is not that great?
I wouldn’t be so sure, David. There are some storms forming in Williamson County right now according to radar. I would expect many more over the next hour.
Phew.. that one storm is headed straight for robertson county
Keith I wouldn’t say that is so much of a storm developing in Williamson, more of just light rain. I don’t want any storms to develop but I’m more concerned right now with the storms in KY
If nothing develops over the watch area, I think they could cancel it.. I mean something might pop up here in a little bit but as of right now not much is happening. All that in KY is moving more of a East Southeast..
Could those storms in KY have drawn a lot of the energy out of this system?
Ryan, I think some more storms could develop to our west. It’s in the mid 60s in Memphis with dew points at 57. That’s favorable for thunderstorms as you know.
Level 2 Nowcast Advisories have been issued for Montgomery and Robertson Co. For an explanation of advisories go to the site and click under nowcast.
David f. I think hail and some strong winds are possible with these storms but I think we can rule out tornados. Lisa what do you think? Also they seem to want to stay in ky and border with tn. I think Murfreesboro will be spared (if you want to call it that)of the major stuff. Just my obsevations.
I appreciate it Cameron K. I figured the tornado threat was probably dropped down some, but Lisa still mentioned that Nashville may still see some thunder tonight.
It looks to me that the storms to the north are weakining a bit. Earlier, there were around ten t-storm warning out in KY/northern TN, but now there is only one.
Strong SHOWER near Cookeville. Can hear heavy rain pounding our home….no lightning thus far. Will keep you all updated….posting at blog right now.
This thing just popped up on us in the last 10 minutes…
I agree Max. I think the storms overall are weakening, but they’re still strong. Quarter size hail is possible near Clarksville right now.
.08″ of an inch in under 5 minutes in the ol’ rain bucket! Glad I bought the self-measuring electronic one!
Anybody else going to be up with me tonight watching this system come on through
Probably me LOL They’ve issued a severe thunderstorm warning for the Clarksville area, that’s not too far from me. I know that these storms aren’t the worst thing ever, but storms in any form put me on edge.
This has nothing to do with tonight,but the weather for this weekend. I read on tennessewx.com that it’s possible the front coming through this weekend might occlude…. Does anyone else seem to think this will happen? Of course Im aware it’s only Tuesday. I’m just curious.
Yes mike, those electronic self measuring ones always work best it seems.
I always break my glass one. Where can you get them?
pretty heavy rains over here in cookeville. no thunder or lightning, though.
DO YALL THINK DICKSON WILL GET ANY NASTY STORMS