Once again, we could really use some rain to wash the salt and brine off of the roads. So far today, the rain has been a disappointment, passing to our north and south. However, chances increase late this afternoon and tonight. We have a weak front that will move through tomorrow morning, and although it will only cool our night time temps down (daytime highs in 60s Wed!), it should help increase our rain chances overnight and into the morning.
yes and i could use the rain to wash the brine off my car..
SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT……………..
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
450 AM CST TUE FEB 20 2007
TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-211130-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
450 AM CST TUE FEB 20 2007
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST MIDDLE
TENNESSEE…WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MID STATE WEDNESDAY MORNING…ENDING
THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MIDDLE TENNESSEE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING.
$$
04
IT LOOKS LIKE WE JUST GOT OUR CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT UPGRADED……
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 201636
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1036 AM CST TUE FEB 20 2007
VALID 201630Z - 211200Z
…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY…
…SYNOPSIS…
A STRONG/POSITIVE TILT SRN STREAM JET WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST REGION TODAY WITH WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE RED RIVER ACROSS CNTRL AR INTO
THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT…SLY WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN MOIST ADVECTION WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY BENEATH STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT. FARTHER N…A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY WITH ELEVATED THUNDER
EXPECTED AS FAR N AS OH.
…NERN AR/SERN MO/WRN TN/WRN KY/NRN MS…
MID MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
CNTRL IL INTO CNTRL MO WITH WARM FRONT FROM SERN MO EWD INTO THE OH
VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WERE INCREASING INTO THE MID 50S F SOUTH OF THESE
BOUNDARIES. MEANWHILE…VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED EXTENSIVE MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION…WITH SHARP CLEARING LINE
ACROSS ERN OK INTO N CNTRL AR. MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG BUT
SHALLOW CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE BELOW 850 MB. THIS
INVERSION…ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
OVER MOST OF THE WARM SECTOR.
BEST CHANCE FOR DAYTIME DEVELOPMENT WILL BE NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT
ACROSS FAR SRN MO INTO NRN AR/FAR SERN MO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON…WHERE STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL PERSIST. SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF LARGE HAIL GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR.
LARGELY STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SPLITTING
STORMS. MODERATE LOW LEVEL SRH WILL EXIST MAINLY E OF MS RIVER
BENEATH VEERED BUT STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO AS STORMS CONTINUE EWD OUT OF AR INTO WRN TN.
..JEWELL.. 02/20/2007
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1716Z (11:16AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today’s Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Davis, what do you think about the severe weather threat?
Well folks it looks like tonight could be a long night for some of our viewing area.
There is a risk for SEVERE SUPER CELL
T-STORMS later on today and into tonight.
The main threats look to be large hail and damaging winds ,however, if the storms get started earlier than expected super cells will be likely with some tornadoes possible. It looks like the best chance for severe weather is from EAST AR,WEST TN,AND WEST MIDDLE TN.
The hottest part of the day is when it should start getting underway,which is at 3PM.
I do think a weather watch will be issued.
This will most likely be a T-Storm Watch, but if the instability starts earlier it will be a Tornado Watch.
SO STAY ALERT PEOPLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Then if thats not enough a bigger shot of severe weather will slam us on SAT/SAT NIGHT. They are saying it will be our first big severe weather outbreak of the year with Tornadoes the main threat.
This is still to far out to tell but it looks promising for you strom chasers.
Alright I’ll issue another statement soon so saty tuned and be alert.
CONSIDER YOURSELF BUZZED………
Josh Roberson
The weather people in Memphis are saying that in AR the visible satellite is showing strong develpment of convection and its clearing and heading our way. With clearing its making the atmosphere very unstable and TSTORMS will start to erupt soon. I think its gonna be bad tonight yall.
I’m not trying to be rude right now but how can you say tornado’s are going to be the MAIN threat for Saturday? It’s only Tuesday and things can change. That’s not going to do nothing but scare people, including me! lol
Im with Kacey, I think the BUZZ is talking about the wrong end.
LOL OMG YALL ARE FUNNY STOP IT OK.
DAVIS GETTING SUCKED UP LOL THAT WOULD BE A SIGHT OMG.
JUSTIN IS GAY WE ALL KNOW IT BUT HE DONT NEED SUCKING UP BECAUSE HE DOES THAT QUIET WELL ROFL.
Right now the tornado chance is only 2 percent for western middle TN and 5 percent for Western. Not all that high right now.
ok folks this saturday and sunday will be a super outbreak of severe weather over the south with the greatest risk threat over arkansas and the tennessee valley this could mean the possibility of a large and deadly tornado outbreak for these area please stay tuned to your local stations for more updates
It use to be so calm spring and summer of last year. sara chichi can’t you go off and do your own thing. Our passion on this blog is weather your’s is not, so I ask you nicely, please go and do somthing else.
madonna lol right.
Kailyn u bad boy lol
I have been posting on this blog for ever and I find it funny that yall seem to bash my post from “THE BUZZ”.
Let me tell ya’ll something.
I base that on professional models and tools that I got on my computer. I overlap models and get a more accurate forecast then most AMATTURE people.
I perdicted the snow fall we had about 2 weeks ago to happen and yall kept saying no its disipating, but look what happened.
So I think my forecast are just as good as any other. And kids are very inexperienced ok. I have been in conjunction with NEWS 2 for years. I sent them numerous footage and had them aired from the 2004 Tornado outbreak and the one last spring. I email them numerous pictures from weather events and even did A live shot from Jackson when they got hit by tornados a few years ago.
So I will not stop putting my forecast on this blog. I have been doing it for years and it will stay that way.
And as for the malacious comments, ya’ll should act more matture and respect the unique aspect of weather. I get paid good for what I do and its a great hobby.
So please stop and grow up.
Josh Roberson
Josh you are good and I like your forecast. I agree people should grow up.
Josh keep up the good work brother.
OMgosh, I wouldn’t be the least bit suprised if this blog got shut down because of the way all you immature people are acting. You know there are actually people that come here to talk about weather and the forecast.
Kailyn leave him alone. Your a minor and you dont got professional programs on your computer ok, you just use the sites.
Like most idiots on this blog do.
Look you all the fact is TN weather is very hard to perdict we end up in the middle of everything.
GROW UP KAILYN!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I think I’ve come to the conclusion that the immature people here is just one person. I think they just make up fake names every 5 minutes.
That’s why I only mention my opinion and thoughts of the future instead of saying or acting like it’s a forecast after all I’m only a amuture so until I’m a met I won’t try to professionally forecast like one.
I know the naysayers would say to just ignore the garbage posts, but it is tiring to sift through all the garbage. Such a shame, because this blog can be and usually is an informative blog that I look at daily. I think it’s time that either some more filtering measures take place to keep the garbage off, or shut down the “comments” section of the blog (and/or possibly have those that post go through a pre-approval or filtering process.) The garbage is not necessary.
Hi everyone. I went through a deleted a few comments due to profanity. I am working today on the new NashvilleWX website, which will better handle these issues for you all. Look for the redesign tomorrow or thursday.
Thanks Christian you really helped out.
Thank goodness. I’m so tired of being so mean. It’s just not me.
Though we did see some snow this winter, it is obviously not going to be the kind of winter many of us hoped for. For the 4th time in a row, we are going to have to “wait until next year”. Do some of you think that sooner or later law of averages will catch up and someday we’ll have a decent winter? Or is “wait til next year” going to end up being “wait until never”?
The severe weather chances for today looking any better?
Chris,
I believe these cycles that the Jet Stream, El Nino, and what not go through will eventually pan out for a while in Tennessee again…the only questions are: how long will it take and will we still be alive? O_o
naaaaah I’m sure we’ll get a good winter weather system soon. Year 2894 have’nt got a good snow storm yet and my great great great great great ect… grand kids will be saying I’m sure we’ll get a good winter weather system soon. lol
Awesome Christian!!,
Im looking forward to that new Nashvillewx.com. Sure need it! But looks like rain is moving in the Mid Tn direction, and as always if it gets rough here, I’ll tell yall about it. Later guys..
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 201949
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CST TUE FEB 20 2007
VALID 202000Z - 211200Z
…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THROUGH WRN PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY…
…PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH WRN TN VALLEY…
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD THROUGH WRN MO
INTO CNTRL OK. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 50-55F ARE ADVECTING NE
THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AS FAR N AS SE MO. A CORRIDOR OF
SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING IS ALSO OCCURRING FROM NRN AR THROUGH
SRN MO IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA SHOW
THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL STRONGLY CAPPED BY A PRONOUNCED ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER. SUBSTANTIAL MODIFICATION OF THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING CAP IS EXPECTED AS DEEPER ASCENT AND MID
LEVEL COOLING ACCOMPANYING THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. BY EARLY EVENING…RUC
POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR STORMS
TO INITIATE ALONG THE SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN MO THROUGH
NRN AR INTO SWRN KY AND WRN TN.
LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY VEERING AND SHOULD UNDERGO SOME
WEAKENING TOWARD EVENING AS THE WLY LOW LEVEL JET ADVANCES THROUGH
THE TN VALLEY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER…LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO…ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN INITIATE PRIOR TO
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. OTHERWISE…DEEPER LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES AND BOW ECHOES. GIVEN FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS
ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WITH -20C AT 500 MB…LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS CAN EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS OR
SMALL CLUSTERS.
..DIAL.. 02/20/2007
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2108Z (3:08PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
I don’t know if this was posted already but here is the 4-8 day outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CST TUE FEB 20 2007
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
…PLAINS/MS VALLEY/SRN ATLANTIC SEABOARD…
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
WRN U.S. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS
IS A MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION THAN LAST NIGHTS RUN AND THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW IS FARTHER SOUTH. A 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AROUND MIDDAY ON
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH…A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD
INTO OK AND KS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRYLINE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE
SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE BY AFTERNOON. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS THE SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS EWD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT…A
SQUALL-LINE WITH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY.
THE SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS WITH AN ADDITIONAL THREAT POSSIBLE FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NRN
FL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
..BROYLES.. 02/20/2007
Ryan in Hickman, I’m sure I’ll see you on here tonight if the storms start looking violent. As for this weekend, no time is good for severe storms or anything but if we do have to have them I would rather have them during the day. It seems like we have a lot of storms at night time now for some reason and I really, really hate when I can’t see what’s going on outside.
Christain erase away baby.
I have hacked and shut down this blog before a few weeks ago and I will do it again and again.
IP scramblers will be used to not trace and Nasty post will prevail fuckers.
Yay for real I remeber when we couldnt even access the blog a few weeks ago.
But hey there is no stopping these negative post.
Alright guuys I know it seems as all hope is lost for a decent snow this year, but dont give up just yet. One of our biggest snow events ever came in mid March and it was also an El nino winter. It was a quiet winter up untill that event so don’t give up just yet. I am a bit concerned about this weekend though Thanks news 2 for giving the extended heads up.
snow chance don’t count on it.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp0_192.shtml
Hey mets we cracked 62.5 Here in Thompson’s Station.
david F, I would’nt worry to much about tonight, be alart saturday. Unless my knowledge about weather is as bad as my contractions. lol. Also get a NOAA weather radio if you don’t have one yet, they keep you informed.
One thing here is for sure. There are many people who are passionate about the weather. I am almost afraid to disagree with some folks because they take it so personal, but there are hardly few missed storm forecasts. Snow has always been tricky, but the storms and rain are pretty well hit. I take it more to heart when our chances are 60% or more. I think one reason people like me as well as so many others love the weather is because it can be just beautiful. The way the sky colors can beam off the most awesome blue or the most wicked almost black clouds! Has anyone ever noticed how beautiful the hills around here are when the sky is just the right shade of dark gray? The way the wind feels as if the spirits had been released from the heavens to play. To all you weather haters, have you ever just stood in the winds before a storm? Close your eyes and just breath? There are many wonderful, scary and interesting things about the weather. We cannot control the weather, we cannot stop it, however as time as went by we can now have better warnings that can save people’s lives. I would rather be told that we need to be watching for possible bad weather, than to just assume that the folks at news 2 and others have no idea what they are talking about. They do know when there is a threat, so for all you haters out there who like to give folks here a hard time- I guess you wouldn’t be doing that if one of those (as you call screwed up forecast) saved you or someone you cared about. I love the weather. I respect the people who try to help, wether they are in it for a hobby or have a degree. So to all of you who really care, your doing a great job! This is simply just my thoughts after reading all the blogs on here today. For those of you who want to throw a fit over it, I didn’t make you read it. Everyone have a good night! and again- Thank-you. Candi from Carthage.
Ok guys, looks like WRN TN/ WRN Mid TN might get it on the chin.
Meso in effect for that area.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0172
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CST TUE FEB 20 2007
AREAS AFFECTED…SERN MO…NERN AR…WRN TN…EXTREME SRN IL/WRN KY
CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 202152Z - 202315Z
…PORTIONS OF SERN MO…NERN AR…WRN TN AND EXTREME SRN IL/WRN KY
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH…BY 00Z.
AT 21Z…A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN SOUTH CENTRAL MO…EAST OF
SGF. A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST FROM THE SURFACE LOW…AND
THOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WAS CURRENTLY WEAK…A WIND SHIFT
/BOUNDARY MOVING SWD INTO SRN MO SHOULD STRENGTHEN THE CONVERGENCE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S AND LOWER TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS
WERE RESULTING IN MLCAPES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
AROUND 850 MB ARE CURRENTLY LIMITING SURFACE PARCELS FROM REACHING
THE LFC…BUT THIS MAY CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LIFTING NEAR
THE WARM FRONT WEAKENS THE CAP. IF SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOP…
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND 60-70 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS…WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SUGGESTING HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.
..IMY.. 02/20/2007
ATTN…WFO…OHX…PAH…MEG…LSX…LZK…SGF…
37089105 37528933 37318792 36918729 35268868 35269001
35419115 35989143
Everybody in that area…keep your eyes peeled.
Tim
Couldn’t have said it better myself, Candi from Carthage!
Just watched news 2.Lisa doesn’t seem to be so concerned about storms for tonight.
thanks kacey, i was waiting for someone to say something like that. i am not near a tv so i was relying on this…
great post, candi. we need more poeple like you who actually care about the weather.
I agree with you kacey. I bet its only one or two people posting with different names who are ruining this blog for everyone.
Maybe something is not going to happen in Nashville itself but the Clarksville area might get it, at least according to the National Weather Service(the official source for weather information) they woulden’t put a mesoscale out if they didn’t think something was going to happen.
Ok as I was hinting earlier in my buzz, the SPC has issued a severe t-storm watch……..
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 26
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
505 PM CST TUE FEB 20 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
WESTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 505 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
CLARKSVILLE TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION…SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN AR/SOUTHEAST MO…SPREADING ACROSS
THE WATCH AREA. DESPITE RATHER WEAK CAPE VALUES…COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE THREAT OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION…A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26035.
Now all ya’ll who were bashing my forecast earlier can all see I was right.
I put my models in overlap mode and it allows me to be more accurate on forecast.
I will continue to keep ya’ll ahead of all that happens in this meesed up weather state. I enjoy it and its my passion.
Consider yourself buzzed………
Josh Roberson
My question is, will hail & occasional high wind gusts remain the primary threat? I see that they have Clarksville in a 2% chance for tornadoes. With this system & its dynamics, are tornadoes a major concern? Is there a lot of spin in the atmosphere?
yes there is a chance for isolated tornadoes.
Hey David, Whats goin on bud?? Nothing much here but some wind gusts up to 38mph.. Winds really picked up here within the last 10 mins. But i’ll keep u up to date on whats going on here. Later guys!
thank god they took all those nasty post down it was disresptful nasty. now i can post. NEWS 2 YALL ROCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!