Middle Tennessee is currently in severe weather awareness week. The timing is pretty good as our seven day forecast depicts a transition from winter chill to spring-like warmth and thunderstorms by this weekend.
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Speaking of severe wx…. maybe some at the end of the week at least according to the Storm Prediction Center in Norman,Oklahoma
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CST MON FEB 19 2007
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. AS THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE CNTRL U.S.
FRIDAY…LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NWD INTO THE PLAINS AND
OZARK REGION SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A LARGE NUMBER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OH AND
TN VALLEYS SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION…THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NRN FL AND THE SRN PART OF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE ERN U.S.
..BROYLES.. 02/19/2007
Maybe Friday or Saturday?
There is a risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow and tomorrow night in WEST TN and WEST MIDDLE TN.
SPC AC 191722
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CST MON FEB 19 2007
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THROUGH WRN PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY…
…PORTION OF LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH WRN TN VALLEY…
UPPER LOW NOW OVER SRN CA IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AND SHEAR EWD
INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT…
WHILE NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE NRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR A COLD FRONT TO
SETTLE SWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE NWRN GULF IS IN THE PROCESS OF MODIFICATION
WITH MID 50S DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY OBSERVED JUST OFF THE TX COAST. A
SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AND CONTRIBUTE
TO NWD ADVECTION OF MODIFIED CP AIR. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WRN
PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER…THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL VEER TO
WLY BY MID DAY…AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE NWD EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE
RETURN. DESPITE THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN…AN AXIS OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES (-20 C
AT 500 MB) WILL SPREAD OVER THE RETURNING MOIST AXIS AND CONTRIBUTE
TO DESTABILIZATION. MLCAPE FROM 400 TO 800 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
CORRIDOR FROM PARTS OF AR THROUGH WRN TN AND NRN MS…ESPECIALLY IF
SUBSTANTIAL HEATING OCCURS.
SOME CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP RELATIVELY EARLY FARTHER S OVER PARTS OF
THE LOWER MS VALLEY FROM CNTRL/SRN MS EWD INTO AL. GIVEN LIMITED
EXPECTED INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES…THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SUB SEVERE. A BETTER THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS IS
EXPECTED FARTHER N FROM ERN AR THROUGH NRN MS AND WRN TN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS
REGION ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF SWD MOVING FRONT AS MID LEVEL
PROFILES COOL…AND DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTRIBUTES TO A
WEAKENING CAP. WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME UNIDIRECTIONAL…BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT…BUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
..DIAL.. 02/19/2007
Did you know Nashville is on the out skirts of tornado ally? Here’s a map of it. http://www.tornadochaser.net/tornadoalley.jpg
I heard a few weeks ago, some people were talking and saying how they were wishing for tornados. My thoughts are… I love storms and storm chasing. I actually get a rush of adrenaline from it, and some times I go outside right as the wind gusts are coming thru before the heavy rain starts, but I “DON’T” recommend going outside during severe weather. I should not even do it for my safety, in fact, I don’t wish for tornados/severe weather on anyone or anywhere. If one strikes, I am happy to study it and report it. Remember, the more we know about them, the better we get on tracking them.
All families should have a NOAA weather radio; they keep you informed on severe weather. I have one now from a raffling contest at the storm alert tour hosted by James Spann in Jasper, Al. Keep safe out there. When severe weather does strike, think about the pets too.
We are discussing the possibility of severe weather this weekend over at The Tennessee Weatherzone. Please join in the discussions. Click my name.
I’ve noticed that quite a few people are thinking this is going to be a major severe weather outbreak. What do you think Justin, or whoever?
Personally, i still think its too early to tell for sure. I’ll concede to the fact that forcasts are pointing at severe storms, but then again they are just forecasts. Many things can change between now and then. Ive seen many forcasts like this that were predicting severe storms, but when system actually got here, we had little more than rain.
This thing is still way to far out to nail down anything. There appears to be the ingredients coming together for an outbreak, but no one can predict “mesoscale features” (thanks to James Spann) this far out. Just have to keep up to date with the week goes by. Please remember, it is just Monday and we are talking about this weekend. Anything can happen between now and then. Heck, for all we know, it could end up snowing!
Hey yall!
Its your buddy Brad all the way out here in Ft. Riley, Kansas. I have been watching this potential severe weather event for a couple days now and its looking like places from Eastern Kansas through the mid south and southeast have a decent shot of severe weather. Matt Miller our chief meteorologist up here at KTKA Topeka (abc affiliate) Says that if this storm was comming in on March 23 or April 23 he would be concerned. It really is going to depend on how much low level moisture and instability we get. That would be the case with middle tennessee also. Right now temps in Kansas will be in the mid and upper 60’s on Friday and near 60 saturday. We could be seeing snow sat night through sunday too. I DONT WANT ANYMORE SNOW! We almost have it all melted off!
Anyhow i do believe that somebody is going to get some very nasty storm this upcomming weekend. Wether that be Kansas, Tennessee, or the gulf coast states time will only tell. There is going to be a pretty intense snow storm on the north side of this also. If i get anything interesting in the next couple of days here in Kansas i will shoot you all a comment or send a picture. Just stay informed on the weather situation and you should be alright.
-Brad Foster
I’ve got a Severe Weather Map on the MTWC. Click my name to check it out
Click my name here.
Wow…what a warm-up today for all of us!!!! We cracked 50 today on the Plateau….alot of our snow is disappearing quickly! A couple of schools will go late or not at all tomorrow.
Hey thanks for the support over at my blog…I’ve tried to fill a need for people who are interested on what’s going on here in the Plateau region of TN. I’ve been inspired by the fine folks at Channel 2 with their Weather Blog. Mark over at the NWS has been kind enough to provide a link. Hopefully, it has enhanced the ‘weather nuts’ surfing pleasure..that is the goal!
Bring on the WARM weather! Let’s see some flowers pop up!
My initial thoughts on this weekend were for a severe wx event, especially in our southern counties. Now, GFS is changing its temp forecast from well over 10C at 850mb to less than 10C. This is really making me less confident in the potential for severe wx. with minimal sunshine, my confidence falls even more. will still have to wait and see though.
Winter does not want to give up yet, or does it want to tease us. Just don’t fall for it.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_192.shtml
whoa, Cam! that’s awesome! looks like this warm spell should be short-lived though I don’t mind. I would love some warm weather, get a good severe weather outbreak, then have it turn cold again…with one more shot of snow…that can stick better…or in other words, more like the Groundhog Day snow compared to this most recent round.
Well, while severe weather is one our mind, I just couldn’t help to share with you guys my experience at Busch Stadium in St. Louis during the July 19, 2006 Derecho. Click my name to read my educational and very interesting article.