We’ll enjoy an entire workweek and weekend of above normal temperatures but keep in mind we still are in February with March still to come. The third month of the year has been known to bring some whopper snows; we’ll certainly see a couple more shots of winter cold before the trees turn green. In fact this is the how the long range GFS has the atmosphere set-up for the first Sunday in March:
This would be a massive snow storm. Keep in mind the GFS has shown a couple of these in the long-range this winter hitting middle Tennessee and we haven’t gotten one yet. We’ll keep you posted. I’m more concerned right now about this coming weekend and Saturday afternoon. We’ve got a good chance for our first Spring storm outbreak…even though it’s not Spring just yet.
HOLY SMOKES!
Alright…I’m over it…the GFS (sniff) has disappointed me… (sniff)…
Why…I even lamented about it in this song…(previously posted at http://www.tennesseewx.com):
One day, I’ll get to writing the FULL extended version and have a SIDE 1 and SIDE 2, but for now….to the tune of Don McLean’s AMERICAN PIE, Pt. 1:
THOSE OLD MODELS SURE LIE
A long, long time ago..
I can sure remember when those snowflakes used to really fly
And I knew if we had our chance
We’d build snowmen, make snow angels, even dance
And maybe we’d be happy for awhile…
But February made me shiver
with every model reading they’d deliver
Bad news in the forecast
How long could this bad run of luck really last?
I can’t remember if I cried when I read how the GFS
tilted to the warm side
Another snow chance blown open wide
The day the precip dried…
So why, why do those old models lie
From the GFS to Euro, you can’t trust them
I’ve tried
Those good old boys and gals predicted weather
shake their head and just smile
Saying, “Maybe we’ll get a chance for snow next time.”
“This isn’t the BIG ONE for us NOW”….
All winter we’ve been starved for snow
At one time it was so warm we almost had to mow
(confusing trees, flower bulbs, and birds)
Then when the cold temps finally hit the mark
the dry air found a place to park
and it has been here to stay….
But every week out in Voodoo Land
Comes Model Pictures promising the snow, man
The promises soon are broken
The pictures tormenting tokens
And the weather we admire most…
Tornadoes and Severe Thunderstorms
Wait in the wings to take over Winter’s Absent Host
For Spring’s tumultuous ride….
So why, why do those old models lie
From the GFS to Euro, you can’t trust them
I’ve tried
Those good old boys and gals predicted weather
shake their head and just smile
Saying, “Maybe we’ll get a chance for snow next time.”
“This isn’t the BIG ONE for us NOW”
Just out of curiosity, how much snow would be considered a “massive” snow storm? Am I looking at this correctly when it appears that the brunt would be to our east-southeast? How do you know that it’s snow and not rain? I’m not completely well-versed when it comes to reading these things. Thanks!
SERVOCROW!!! WHAT AN AWESOME SONG!! Loved it.. I’m going to enjoy this warm weather, and then deal with big ole thunderstorms..
0C line represents the freezing line about 4,000-5,000 feet up at 850 mb level. The farther south this line is from you, the better chance you would see snow, not rain. I have seen GFS toy with that system on and off but I think it is really just inaccurate. I can’t really see that pic to well but that could dump like a foot of snow on mid TN. anyways, don’t get your hopes up.