Any precipitation that moves in before sunrise on Thursday will be snow mixing with sleet. But it will quickly be changing over to rain during the day as temps rise to he upper 30s. After the low passes to our south, the precip should changeover to snow again, with some leftover flurries and snow showers on Friday as more cold air blasts in.
That’s the latest.
well if that happens it will end up as nothing on the ground.
But Davis…..that Low on that graphic looks like it is in PERFECT position….whats the deal?
Gabe,
Temps warming too much after sunrise according to latest models. AVN most optimistic to get snow in before sunrise, followed by the change to rain.
could the models flip flop again and it be all snow??
Exactly what I said what would happen. And it looks like now alot of the moisture won’t even come in until after sunrise so our chances of any snow are slim I think now. We will never get any snow from a system that bring moisture in from the gulf unless it is brutally cold. Cause it brings the warm air with it. When I saw them mentioning this several days ago I knew this was going to happen. As soon as I heard moisture from the gulf mentioned I dimished it.
On a better note. Has anyone seen the HUGE ring around the moon tonight. Id say that is the only reason to say that will get snow right now.
Davis how do you feel about the 00NAM and 00GFS. Looks like a northwest trend that we have been seeing? Also how much of your forcast are you weighing on the Euro and Canadian models
looks like i’ll stay in mobile a few more days and hope for this next sunday pm/monday storm
I’ll take the ring around the moon. Not above a bit of voodoo right now.
John in Cville
Hello,
I am new to this site and will never learn all the weather terms I would like know. I do however have a question that relates to the weather system developing for Thursday.
If the precipitation starts out as snow and its possible that if we get a good inch or two , could that keep the temps down a few degrees, so that the snow will stay longer before switching over.
Also I wanted to know. If it did not keep the temps down for the snow to stay, would the the snow melt or would the rain freeze on top of the snow. Snow is 32 degrees or colder, or it would melt?? RIGHT???? If this is not the case, then why does freezing rain happen. I do know that it falls as rain and frezees because the ground is 32 degress or below. So wouldn’nt the snow make the rain frezze. Sorry for all the misspelling. Someone please answer my question, because I am just full of questions and I need some answer. So whether your a Weather Man or Woman or just full of weather knowledge, your responce would be greatly appreciated .
hmmm…why the heck did we get so much snow in 2003? we a high of 40 on february 9th…and we got 4.1 inches later…though temps were falling into the 20’s i believe. the week earlier, we had a 71 degree high…then the night before the snow, the temperature was 11…but still…i’m still baffled…
Freezing rain can be defined as “rain that freezes shortly after striking a surface that is at or below freezing”. There are different layerse in the atmostphere. When we have a very shallow layer of cold air and a warm layer above it precip will fall through the warm layer as rain into a shallow cold layer of air. There shallow area of cold is not great enough to freeze so when it hits the surface the freezes. Thats a easy way of putting it without having to show sounding charts.
Above Post mine
We got way more snow than they predicted us to have, if I am thinking correctly.
I am really hating tennessee right about now…..sorry but i am angry! And i have nothing to focus my anger at….thats what sucks!
Well, at least the winter weather is getting easier to predict here in Tennessee. Every time we have potential for a good snow we can count on it eventually turning into mostly a rain event. Not to curse anything, but I’ll bet if Sunday/Monday’s system turns out to be forecasted as a potentially decent snow, then it will eventually become forecasted into a mostly rain event…like all the others.
This upcoming system looked good for us and with all the different mets predicting that this was out best chance this winter…ouch, that hurts.
Whoa, those were some negative thoughts…now that that’s out of the way…I know the mets do their best at predicting the wx and respect their work, just frustrated with winter wx here…
good night
our* best chance so far
mets do their best but like i say….anything beyond 3 days is ridiculous to forecast.
quick question,
I am hearing alot about a possible system coming in on sunday/ monday. I have searched on many sites, and looked at several models and the most decent thing i can find is a 20% chance of flurries sunday night. I would like to know where yall heard that from.
HPC going with suppressed/UKMET solution
Davis,Justin and others from the wkrn crews. I found something that might interest you in your forcast. Looks like some models are trying to Phase alot sooner. What interesting is the UKMET tonight. This shows a much better setup for this area. Read this if you have no already found it. Let me know what you think?
HPC going with suppressed/UKMET solution
UPPER CYCLONE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON FRIDAY…
THE ECMWF STARTS OUT AS THE QUICKEST OF THE GUIDANCE IN EJECTING
THIS SYSTEM…THOUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE CATCHES UP TO
ITS SOLUTION BY LATE THURSDAY. THEREAFTER…THE UKMET/ECMWF/GFS
ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
SURFACE CYCLONE BY LATE THURSDAY WHICH IS WHEN THE SPREAD IN THE
VARIOUS MEMBERS OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BEGIN TO SHOW SPREAD.
THE 29/12Z AND 30/00Z CANADIAN ARE THE FARTHEST NORTH…WHILE THE
18Z/00Z NCEP ENSMEAN WERE THE FLATTEST WITH QUITE THE CLUSTERING
SEEN IN ITS ENSMEMBERS AROUND THE NCEP ENSMEAN SOLUTION. THE SREF
MEMBERS LIE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE COMPROMISE SOLUTION…MOST
SIMILAR TO THE UKMET. ALL THE 00Z NCEP ENSMEMBERS SHOW AN ARRAY OF
SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM…WHICH COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL
SURFACE RIDGING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE ANTICIPATED
PRECIPITATION OVERRIDING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WOULD INCREASE THE
LIKLIHOOD OF A MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION. THE UKMET SOLUTION WILL
BE PREFERRED…WHICH IS ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE 00Z GFS
WITH THE SURFACE CYCLONE.
Coldest Morning This Winter | Main | Re-enforcing Cold Front Moving In on Tuesday Morning…& The Latest On The “Wintery” Situation Later This Week »
January 29, 2007
Model Flip-Flops
Most of the computer models we use to create a forecast are run four times per day. In this difficult weather pattern, the same model might yield four different solution in 24 short hours! The models have oscillated from a cold to warm solution between this morning and midday. Disappointing for snow lovers, but hope is not lost. It’s important not to get caught up in the run-to-run details and keep your eye on the big picture.
Below is tomorrow’s predicted upper air pattern. Two things to point out: a big disturbance diving through the Midwest will bring cold northwest winds and reinforce the chill tomorrow. We might even squeeze out a few flurries. The second, more important feature is off the Southern California coast in the image below. That upper air disturbance will swing east and cause a surface low to develop late Wednesday through Thursday. The low pressure will pass south of Tennessee but the exact track remains uncertain. The particular path of that surface low will determine what type of precipitation we get on Thursday.
The late morning model runs suggest that the surface low pressure will move from Houston to Birmingham. That’s farther north (and warmer) than the early morning models had predicted. Again, it’s important to not get caught up in the run-to-run details of the computer models. The upper air disturbance that will kick start our mid-week system is roughly 2,000 miles away! I think we’ll see more model flip-flopping in the next few days…so stay tuned to the blog and our television forecasts for the latest thinking.
Posted by Justin at January 29, 2007 11:28 AM
Comments
Time for the snow dance!!!!
Thanks for the info Justin. Please keep us snow lover’s update! Im crossing my fingers!
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 11:36 AM
We’ll just have to be patient and wait/see what happens!
There is a good snow coming for this winter, it’s just a question of when.
Posted by: Mike from Cookeville at January 29, 2007 11:38 AM
Guess it means no snow, huh
Posted by: Vicki at January 29, 2007 11:38 AM
Come on snowflakes!!! We need the snow to close schools in Rutherford County so our sick kids will have time to get well without missing class time. And a little snow play won’t hurt either!!
Posted by: Meghan at January 29, 2007 11:38 AM
Amen Meghan, Although my 9 year old has had the crud twice since Xmas vacation, I think a big snow day would be just what the doctor ordered. Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow!!!!!
Posted by: Pats at January 29, 2007 12:01 PM
My family is coming up to Gatlinburg this week…heading up tomorrow…is there a good chance we will see some snow?
Posted by: Brandi at January 29, 2007 12:03 PM
like i said i guess we live to close to hell and it does not snow in hell..
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 12:17 PM
That’s a cool weather model, man…if I stare at it, the swirls start to move…grooovy…
Posted by: Ginger at January 29, 2007 12:18 PM
ARRGGG!!
The dreaded northward trend with WAA. Man, I sure thought with all this cold air coming in that would be the last thing to happen with this storm.
Posted by: wdbeas at January 29, 2007 12:21 PM
Nice work guys, in reviewing weather.com, they have dropped there temp now to the low 40’s and calling for Rain then Snow, if you are fortunate enough to live in Clarksville they are calling for all snow with flurries tonight and tomorrow in that area
Posted by: weatherdawg at January 29, 2007 12:22 PM
It’s a real pisser living in Tennessee. Couple hundred miles further north and we would always be snow. A couple hundred miles south and it would always be rain. Our geographic location causes hell for all…lol
Posted by: Anon at January 29, 2007 12:29 PM
is dickson county school is closed tomorrow because of the flu.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 01:01 PM
Justin, we need snow this week and lots of it. Help!
Posted by: Vicki at January 29, 2007 01:40 PM
Right Now the Gfs is not the model to watch. I think the Euro has alot better handle on the situation. The track is going to play a big role in what type of precip comes down as wkrn has said. The latest 12Z Euro is out and Im looking at the Gempack Images right now. Right now the HPC puts this area in a Slight risk of 4″> of snow. So before we start hearing all this Its never gona snow and ” They ” can nevere get the forcast right. Its still too early to figure out details but the threat of a winter event is the greastest its been this year. So lets sit back and see how things pan out for a day. You can ride the up and down rollercoaster of models. You go with trends and agreement.
Posted by: Rpb at January 29, 2007 02:01 PM
I would like to go back and comment on the gfs.The Gfs could pan out correct no dout, but some other Met and I agree that the Euro is better to watch.
Posted by: Rob at January 29, 2007 02:08 PM
The GFS has been crappy the past few weeks anyways. I still say the low will go around montgomery and that would bring all snow wed. night and if we can accumulate an inch the temps wont rise.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:22 PM
however, if the low does pass over B-ham we have NO chance at snow. We need it to be between mobile and montgomery alabama
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:29 PM
and oh BTW if this system does not bring snow i will be officaly ANGRY!….hehe
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:31 PM
00utc shows the low south of montgomery starting wed. night….YAY! Lets hope that comes true
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:35 PM
I will be angry too. I need to stay home Thursday.
I want a snow day so bad I can’t stand it!!!
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 02:37 PM
If this system does not bring a decent amount of snow, I will go to the Grand Canyon and jump.
BTW, just for giggles…do any of the long range forecast show any possibility for snow around the end of the weekend and next week?
Back to taking it one system at a time now. Why can’t we have at least one ‘flip-flop’ go OUR way?!?
Posted by: Verbatim at January 29, 2007 02:39 PM
It’s because the models *cough* GFS!!! *cough* doesn’t handle cold air well and always underestimates WAA up until 18 minutes and 21 seconds before the event starts.
Posted by: Kailyn Leto at January 29, 2007 02:43 PM
Grammar error…models DON’T…
Posted by: Kailyn Leto at January 29, 2007 02:44 PM
dickson county school is closed tomorrow because of the flu.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 02:46 PM
Nws nashvile updated forcast. Wed night Snow likely and Thursday Snow/Sleet with chances of snow thursday night and friday. Alot can change people but right now we are looking pretty good for a decent snowfall. Special weather statements should be out soon.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 02:46 PM
$20 bucks says if the low tracks south of Birmingham we get nothing. Come back and review my post mid day Thursday…Rain or nothing folks.
Posted by: Clarence at January 29, 2007 02:55 PM
Wrong….if low goes south of B-ham then we get snow
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:04 PM
it is true that dickson county school is closed tomorrow because of the flu and the water pipe.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 03:05 PM
It depends on how much moisture we get and how much mid-to-upper-lever WAA we get.
Little moisture + little WAA/U = snow
Little moisture + little WAA/S = snow
Little moisture + gaping WAA/U = sleet
Little moisture + gaping WAA/S = rain
Gaping moisture + little WAA/U = snow
Gaping moisture + little WAA/S = repeat of 3/1996
Gaping moisture + gaping WAA/U = freezing rain
Gaping moisture + gaping WAA/S = repeat of 03/2002
Posted by: Kailyn Leto at January 29, 2007 03:08 PM
Hey mets!!!
Please give us an update!!! People are going to start getting rude again if you don’t…
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:12 PM
My so called expertise is in Severe Weather, but I have seen this setup so many times in the past. If the low is south of the B’ham area it will have much less affect on our upper air environs and the precip will be hard pressed to make it in here regardless of temps. If it is in the B’ham area or above look for warmer gulf air to work its way into the upper atmosphere in middle TN, screwing our chances…
Posted by: Clarence at January 29, 2007 03:16 PM
So things are looking up it sounds??? Maybe???? Possibly???
:) 
Can’t someone start a forum for people in Dickson County and care about the schools there????
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 03:17 PM
“My so called expertise is in Severe Weather, but I have seen this setup so many times in the past. If the low is south of the B’ham area it will have much less affect on our upper air environs and the precip will be hard pressed to make it in here regardless of temps. If it is in the B’ham area or above look for warmer gulf air to work its way into the upper atmosphere in middle TN, screwing our chances…”
Sounds an awfully lot like a lose-lose situation there…why would the mets and nws even bother putting snow in the forecast?
Posted by: Verbatim at January 29, 2007 03:21 PM
I ask myself that same question every winter…lol
Posted by: Clarence at January 29, 2007 03:23 PM
Ok this Wendesday night and Thursaday will start out as snow Wed/night and then mix Thursday before ending as another light snow Thursady night. Then Sunday looks very impressive with possibly an all snow event, with 1-5 inches possible.
Then looking at all long range models it appears the cold air will be locked in with up to 5 snow chances in the next 2 weeks. Winter is Back!!!!!!!
Posted by: JustSOYouKnow at January 29, 2007 03:24 PM
well at least the ground temperatures will be in our favor considering most locals were in single digits this morning…and we should be in the lower teens tuesday night-wednesday am as it stands now so that’s one thing in our favor. it seems to me if the storm is as strong as is described, the only element that is in question is the position of the gulf low obviously. not like it really matters but at least newschannel5 has lowered their temps and increased precip %…and NOAA is giving us a 60% chance of snow/sleet wednesday night. not like it means anything…
Posted by: Cameron Fry at January 29, 2007 03:29 PM
So what you are saying then is rain or nothing right?
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 03:34 PM
JustSO: anything that is forecast beyond 5days I never listen to. EVEN though the GFS shows an IMPRESSIVE system sunday-monday i will believe it when i see it
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:36 PM
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
335 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007
TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-301015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…DOVER…CLARKSVILLE…SPRINGFIELD…
GALLATIN…LAFAYETTE…CELINA…BYRDSTOWN…CAMDEN…ERIN…
WAVERLY…DICKSON…ASHLAND CITY…KINGSTON SPRINGS…NASHVILLE…
LEBANON…MOUNT JULIET…HARTSVILLE…CARTHAGE…GAINESBORO…
COOKEVILLE…LIVINGSTON…JAMESTOWN…ALLARDT…LINDEN…
LOBELVILLE…CENTERVILLE…HOHENWALD…FRANKLIN…BRENTWOOD…
COLUMBIA…LEWISBURG…MURFREESBORO…WOODBURY…SMITHVILLE…
SPARTA…CROSSVILLE…FAIRFIELD GLADE…SHELBYVILLE…TULLAHOMA…
MANCHESTER…MCMINNVILLE…TRACY CITY…ALTAMONT…COALMONT…
SPENCER…WAYNESBORO…LAWRENCEBURG…PULASKI
335 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007
…SNOW AND SLEET MAY DEVELOP IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY…
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THIS WEEK. A WEAK
STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST…CAUSING MOISTURE
TO SPREAD ACROSS TENNESSEE AND SURROUNDING AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SNOW AND SLEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN ON THURSDAY.
EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME…BUT EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME AREAS COULD HAVE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL…ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
SNOW AND ICE COULD MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY…SO PEOPLE SHOULD MONITOR
UPDATED FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTER
WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE REGION.
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:38 PM
blah blah blah….they same the same I-40 crap every time. Ther eare many spots below I-40 that are over 1,000 feet above sea level which effects the precip type.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:39 PM
I never said that this was intelligent, just thought I would post this.
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:40 PM
also if it starts as snow wed. and we get 1-2 inches the temps WILL NOT rise much at all thursday….so that statement is not completely accurate to me.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:42 PM
Wednesday
Mostly Sunny
Mostly
Sunny
Hi 35°F Wednesday
Night
Snow Likely. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%
Snow
Likely
Lo 25°F Thursday
Snow/Sleet. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%
Snow/Sleet
Hi 36°F Thursday
Night
Chance Snow. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Snow
Lo 30°F Friday
Chance Snow. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Snow
This is posted on NOAA website.
Posted by: Pats at January 29, 2007 03:52 PM
Sorry Jamie….didn’t mean to blast you at all….just the NWS screwing up again with their logic…
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:53 PM
Gabe,
We will have no problem as long as you spell my name right
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:56 PM
lol sorry….Jaime…is that pronouced (Jay-meeh) thats a different way to spell it. I know somebody named Mercy but its spelled mercie…kinda cool
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:02 PM
So this is sounding good!!!!!!!!! Yahhhhooooo!!!!
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 04:06 PM
18utc GFS and NAM are starting to come out and it shows a more northerly track to the low. Yes, I regret to say it but the 0C line has gone with it. does not mean that all hope is gone though. 18utc is often overridden substantially by the 00utc run. However, I think that the chance for counties on the border of Alabama will depend A LOT on the track of the low and even minor atmospheric changes. But if low takes a considerably more southerly track could see quite a bit of snow there. Right now think that counties on KY border (yes Gabe and those areas in higher elevations) stand a chance at a decent snow. we really need strong reinforcement of cold air and for the precip to not take its sweet time.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 04:20 PM
Matt I would not take the 18Gfs in account much. It does not have the upper air data that the 00UTC and the 12UTC runs do.Also when looking at the 2m temps this far out be very carefull making any calls. This line can swing north and south very easily. Even with snowcover Thursday could have too much WAA and cause a mix. Sounding charts should be used to look at this. As far as sunday and monday right now just look like snow showers. I dont see anything that is of concern yet.
Right now we are at a point where the forast is on the line. One can easily go ahead and make a call for wed night into thursday. I would wait till tomorrow to project snowfall amounts. Right now the Nws is calling areas getting 1-2″ of snow. This all depends on alot of things. This is when you wana watch the local stations to see how they handle a event. Its seems in my eyes wkrn is handling this well. I know no one wants to get everyone worked up over nothing but by tomorrow afternoon we will bavea a good idea of what happens wed night into thurs. Thanks
Posted by: Rob at January 29, 2007 04:32 PM
When they issue statements this early, we never get anything. We have just been cursed. What will probably happen is either 1) low will go too far south and we get nothing in Nashville, while northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee get 6 to 8 inchs or 2) it will go a little farther north and we get mostly rain. They will double curse us Wednesday by spreading or spraying ungodly amounts of salt on the raods.
I hope I am wrong because nobody wants snow more than me.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 04:37 PM
Lol Heath that will be good for me cause i live right on the boarder of Alabama.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 04:40 PM
Got to love that low of 88 on Monday morning haha. Nice type, or is it that old Nashville heat island.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 04:42 PM
I still think if we get an inch or 2 overnight wed. the temps will not rise.
Also is 1,000 feet in elevation a big difference from the 350 that nashville is at…..cause hohenwald where i live is 1,000+ in elevation
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:53 PM
People talk about cookville being elevated but…..hohenwald is just like 50 feet different
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:56 PM
NWS now saying snow with a little sleet….but mostly snow! Guess there is gonna be a little more cold air aloft….and their temps are coming down too
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:59 PM
Not to bust anyone’s bubble but most of all of the forecasters,including NWS, trend to the snow changing over to rain. As the system moves east and pulls in warmer air. If that is the case I hope it does not snow. Cause snow changing over to rain is worse thing ever. Watching the snow just get washed away in a big sloppy mess.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 05:04 PM
Now we really are jinxed.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:05 PM
Alex I just see snow mixed with sleet…not rain…maybe thats cause i live in hohenwald
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:07 PM
Hey Gabe. I live in Nashville, but on the Nashville Rim. Elevations around 1000 feet. Its quite a pretty view on top of the hill.
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 05:07 PM
From Mr. James Spann down at ABC 33/40 in Birmingham….
(edited for length)
*Much of the nation will be flooded with very cold air in the next two weeks (in some cases, the coldest air in one or two decades)
*”Most of the snow from this system will come Wednesday night and Thursday morning along and north of U.S. 72, especially north of the Tennessee border. The I-40 corridor could see several inches of snow, including Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, and Asheville.”
“As always, this could, and probably will change during the next 24 to 36 hours… stay tuned.”
http://www.alabamawx.com
~hold on to your hats, it’s SHOWTIME!
Posted by: Mike from Cookeville at January 29, 2007 05:08 PM
Also, if the system is moving to our south, why does Hopkinsville Ky have a greater chance of precip than we do here? They have 70% Wed night and 80% Thursday.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:09 PM
pretty much if you live in any outside suburb of nashville, you will be at least 200-300 feet higher. but gabe, i totally agree with you on the whole elevation thing. at first, i didn’t think a difference of 600-700 feet would make much of a difference. but last february when most areas in nashville were getting rain, due to that infamous “wave of warmer area” riding up I-65, where i was living at the time south and east of town (elevation: 936 ft) had two inches on the ground. anyway, like i said earlier, i’m not making any bets or plans until the 24 hour marker (tomorrow night)…if everything starts headin’ in our favor, i’ll be racing to nashville from mobile wednesday afternoon. i’ll tell the people at my church here in mobile to pray that the low heads towards them and not towards birmingham! lol!
Posted by: Cameron Fry at January 29, 2007 05:09 PM
Read the special weather statement. It says the snow will gradually change over to a mix or just rain on Thursday. The models have been trending to this too.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 05:14 PM
Yeah….i remember that storm. Here in hohenwald we got 3 inches….while columbia(just 30 miles east) with an elevation about 500 feet lower got rain. Funny thing is our local METS don’t forecast it that way….they just lump southern middle tennessee all together. But 950-1000 feet makes a difference
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:15 PM
Hey alex…those guys also said yesterday it would not negoin until friday night….so sorry if i dont trust that info too much. Also i was reading another forecast where it says most snow will be between nashville and highway 72 around huntsville alabama…everybody has different forecasts right now.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:22 PM
Rob I know all that about the GFS and the warm winds. I’m just analyzing the 18z model run. I know that 18z is the least accurate but also think that it will be hard to get too much snow in southern counties.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 05:28 PM
Ok…ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE. EVerything is up in the air right now…. I have an opinion right now but it could change,a more definitive forecast will come by tomorrows models.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:28 PM
once again….don’t lump all south counties together…some of us are over 1,000 feet in elevation
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:29 PM
Yes yall got to remeber they were not forecasting anything big yesterday but now look whats in the mix. Weather changes in a blink of an eye. They cant pinpoint were a tornado is going to hit so what makes you think they can pinpoint were snow is going to hit. We just got to watch and see damit!!!!! All hale satan lord of darkness!!!! Hes in control
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:32 PM
What elevation is Hermitage/Mt. Juliet area?
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:33 PM
Not even Satin is that ignorant. perhaps you need to get a life. Maybe you should find another outlet for your jealousy. Afterall, hatred is a by product of jealousy.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:43 PM
Ok, so it’s looking like we are going to get some kind of winter precip., finally! Of course it will be along the I-40 line to the north, always is!! I think Rutherford, Williamson, and Davidson county have this anti-snow bubble around them every winter. It always seems to snow above, below, and beside these three counties, but never in these counties. I’ve been doing my snow dance, and I’ve got my fingers crossed this time we get something!!! LET IT SNOW
Posted by: Meghan at January 29, 2007 05:43 PM
What does the Farmer’s Almanac say for this week?
Posted by: Lucas at January 29, 2007 05:45 PM
mine says flurries.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 05:46 PM
Whoever posted in my name earlier….remember, immitation is the most sincere from of flattery…..thanks!
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:51 PM
Heath…Mt. Juliet is close to 600 feet. wheras nashvile is around 450.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:54 PM
For the Channel 2 Mets:
What weather event occurred on January 28, 1951? I read an article about falling temps and a memorable weather event but that was all that was mentioned. Was it an ice storm that hit Middle Tennessee on that date? Thanks
Posted by: WeatherGeek at January 29, 2007 05:55 PM
Meghan, I can remember 3 winters ago when i lived in Antioch, it did snow a complete circle around my house. My ground did not get covered a single time that winter. But the rest of Middle Tennessee got snow at some point.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:56 PM
The Great Ice Storm of 1951. Now go and google it.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 05:57 PM
My updated Snow analysis at MTEC is hot of the press, if anybody wants to check it out
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 06:03 PM
MTWC, I mean.
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 06:04 PM
Coldest Morning This Winter | Main | Re-enforcing Cold Front Moving In on Tuesday Morning…& The Latest On The “Wintery” Situation Later This Week »
January 29, 2007
Model Flip-Flops
Most of the computer models we use to create a forecast are run four times per day. In this difficult weather pattern, the same model might yield four different solution in 24 short hours! The models have oscillated from a cold to warm solution between this morning and midday. Disappointing for snow lovers, but hope is not lost. It’s important not to get caught up in the run-to-run details and keep your eye on the big picture.
Below is tomorrow’s predicted upper air pattern. Two things to point out: a big disturbance diving through the Midwest will bring cold northwest winds and reinforce the chill tomorrow. We might even squeeze out a few flurries. The second, more important feature is off the Southern California coast in the image below. That upper air disturbance will swing east and cause a surface low to develop late Wednesday through Thursday. The low pressure will pass south of Tennessee but the exact track remains uncertain. The particular path of that surface low will determine what type of precipitation we get on Thursday.
The late morning model runs suggest that the surface low pressure will move from Houston to Birmingham. That’s farther north (and warmer) than the early morning models had predicted. Again, it’s important to not get caught up in the run-to-run details of the computer models. The upper air disturbance that will kick start our mid-week system is roughly 2,000 miles away! I think we’ll see more model flip-flopping in the next few days…so stay tuned to the blog and our television forecasts for the latest thinking.
Posted by Justin at January 29, 2007 11:28 AM
Comments
Time for the snow dance!!!!
Thanks for the info Justin. Please keep us snow lover’s update! Im crossing my fingers!
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 11:36 AM
We’ll just have to be patient and wait/see what happens!
There is a good snow coming for this winter, it’s just a question of when.
Posted by: Mike from Cookeville at January 29, 2007 11:38 AM
Guess it means no snow, huh
Posted by: Vicki at January 29, 2007 11:38 AM
Come on snowflakes!!! We need the snow to close schools in Rutherford County so our sick kids will have time to get well without missing class time. And a little snow play won’t hurt either!!
Posted by: Meghan at January 29, 2007 11:38 AM
Amen Meghan, Although my 9 year old has had the crud twice since Xmas vacation, I think a big snow day would be just what the doctor ordered. Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow!!!!!
Posted by: Pats at January 29, 2007 12:01 PM
My family is coming up to Gatlinburg this week…heading up tomorrow…is there a good chance we will see some snow?
Posted by: Brandi at January 29, 2007 12:03 PM
like i said i guess we live to close to hell and it does not snow in hell..
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 12:17 PM
That’s a cool weather model, man…if I stare at it, the swirls start to move…grooovy…
Posted by: Ginger at January 29, 2007 12:18 PM
ARRGGG!!
The dreaded northward trend with WAA. Man, I sure thought with all this cold air coming in that would be the last thing to happen with this storm.
Posted by: wdbeas at January 29, 2007 12:21 PM
Nice work guys, in reviewing weather.com, they have dropped there temp now to the low 40’s and calling for Rain then Snow, if you are fortunate enough to live in Clarksville they are calling for all snow with flurries tonight and tomorrow in that area
Posted by: weatherdawg at January 29, 2007 12:22 PM
It’s a real pisser living in Tennessee. Couple hundred miles further north and we would always be snow. A couple hundred miles south and it would always be rain. Our geographic location causes hell for all…lol
Posted by: Anon at January 29, 2007 12:29 PM
is dickson county school is closed tomorrow because of the flu.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 01:01 PM
Justin, we need snow this week and lots of it. Help!
Posted by: Vicki at January 29, 2007 01:40 PM
Right Now the Gfs is not the model to watch. I think the Euro has alot better handle on the situation. The track is going to play a big role in what type of precip comes down as wkrn has said. The latest 12Z Euro is out and Im looking at the Gempack Images right now. Right now the HPC puts this area in a Slight risk of 4″> of snow. So before we start hearing all this Its never gona snow and ” They ” can nevere get the forcast right. Its still too early to figure out details but the threat of a winter event is the greastest its been this year. So lets sit back and see how things pan out for a day. You can ride the up and down rollercoaster of models. You go with trends and agreement.
Posted by: Rpb at January 29, 2007 02:01 PM
I would like to go back and comment on the gfs.The Gfs could pan out correct no dout, but some other Met and I agree that the Euro is better to watch.
Posted by: Rob at January 29, 2007 02:08 PM
The GFS has been crappy the past few weeks anyways. I still say the low will go around montgomery and that would bring all snow wed. night and if we can accumulate an inch the temps wont rise.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:22 PM
however, if the low does pass over B-ham we have NO chance at snow. We need it to be between mobile and montgomery alabama
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:29 PM
and oh BTW if this system does not bring snow i will be officaly ANGRY!….hehe
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:31 PM
00utc shows the low south of montgomery starting wed. night….YAY! Lets hope that comes true
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:35 PM
I will be angry too. I need to stay home Thursday.
I want a snow day so bad I can’t stand it!!!
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 02:37 PM
If this system does not bring a decent amount of snow, I will go to the Grand Canyon and jump.
BTW, just for giggles…do any of the long range forecast show any possibility for snow around the end of the weekend and next week?
Back to taking it one system at a time now. Why can’t we have at least one ‘flip-flop’ go OUR way?!?
Posted by: Verbatim at January 29, 2007 02:39 PM
It’s because the models *cough* GFS!!! *cough* doesn’t handle cold air well and always underestimates WAA up until 18 minutes and 21 seconds before the event starts.
Posted by: Kailyn Leto at January 29, 2007 02:43 PM
Grammar error…models DON’T…
Posted by: Kailyn Leto at January 29, 2007 02:44 PM
dickson county school is closed tomorrow because of the flu.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 02:46 PM
Nws nashvile updated forcast. Wed night Snow likely and Thursday Snow/Sleet with chances of snow thursday night and friday. Alot can change people but right now we are looking pretty good for a decent snowfall. Special weather statements should be out soon.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 02:46 PM
$20 bucks says if the low tracks south of Birmingham we get nothing. Come back and review my post mid day Thursday…Rain or nothing folks.
Posted by: Clarence at January 29, 2007 02:55 PM
Wrong….if low goes south of B-ham then we get snow
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:04 PM
it is true that dickson county school is closed tomorrow because of the flu and the water pipe.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 03:05 PM
It depends on how much moisture we get and how much mid-to-upper-lever WAA we get.
Little moisture + little WAA/U = snow
Little moisture + little WAA/S = snow
Little moisture + gaping WAA/U = sleet
Little moisture + gaping WAA/S = rain
Gaping moisture + little WAA/U = snow
Gaping moisture + little WAA/S = repeat of 3/1996
Gaping moisture + gaping WAA/U = freezing rain
Gaping moisture + gaping WAA/S = repeat of 03/2002
Posted by: Kailyn Leto at January 29, 2007 03:08 PM
Hey mets!!!
Please give us an update!!! People are going to start getting rude again if you don’t…
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:12 PM
My so called expertise is in Severe Weather, but I have seen this setup so many times in the past. If the low is south of the B’ham area it will have much less affect on our upper air environs and the precip will be hard pressed to make it in here regardless of temps. If it is in the B’ham area or above look for warmer gulf air to work its way into the upper atmosphere in middle TN, screwing our chances…
Posted by: Clarence at January 29, 2007 03:16 PM
So things are looking up it sounds??? Maybe???? Possibly???
:) 
Can’t someone start a forum for people in Dickson County and care about the schools there????
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 03:17 PM
“My so called expertise is in Severe Weather, but I have seen this setup so many times in the past. If the low is south of the B’ham area it will have much less affect on our upper air environs and the precip will be hard pressed to make it in here regardless of temps. If it is in the B’ham area or above look for warmer gulf air to work its way into the upper atmosphere in middle TN, screwing our chances…”
Sounds an awfully lot like a lose-lose situation there…why would the mets and nws even bother putting snow in the forecast?
Posted by: Verbatim at January 29, 2007 03:21 PM
I ask myself that same question every winter…lol
Posted by: Clarence at January 29, 2007 03:23 PM
Ok this Wendesday night and Thursaday will start out as snow Wed/night and then mix Thursday before ending as another light snow Thursady night. Then Sunday looks very impressive with possibly an all snow event, with 1-5 inches possible.
Then looking at all long range models it appears the cold air will be locked in with up to 5 snow chances in the next 2 weeks. Winter is Back!!!!!!!
Posted by: JustSOYouKnow at January 29, 2007 03:24 PM
well at least the ground temperatures will be in our favor considering most locals were in single digits this morning…and we should be in the lower teens tuesday night-wednesday am as it stands now so that’s one thing in our favor. it seems to me if the storm is as strong as is described, the only element that is in question is the position of the gulf low obviously. not like it really matters but at least newschannel5 has lowered their temps and increased precip %…and NOAA is giving us a 60% chance of snow/sleet wednesday night. not like it means anything…
Posted by: Cameron Fry at January 29, 2007 03:29 PM
So what you are saying then is rain or nothing right?
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 03:34 PM
JustSO: anything that is forecast beyond 5days I never listen to. EVEN though the GFS shows an IMPRESSIVE system sunday-monday i will believe it when i see it
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:36 PM
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
335 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007
TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-301015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…DOVER…CLARKSVILLE…SPRINGFIELD…
GALLATIN…LAFAYETTE…CELINA…BYRDSTOWN…CAMDEN…ERIN…
WAVERLY…DICKSON…ASHLAND CITY…KINGSTON SPRINGS…NASHVILLE…
LEBANON…MOUNT JULIET…HARTSVILLE…CARTHAGE…GAINESBORO…
COOKEVILLE…LIVINGSTON…JAMESTOWN…ALLARDT…LINDEN…
LOBELVILLE…CENTERVILLE…HOHENWALD…FRANKLIN…BRENTWOOD…
COLUMBIA…LEWISBURG…MURFREESBORO…WOODBURY…SMITHVILLE…
SPARTA…CROSSVILLE…FAIRFIELD GLADE…SHELBYVILLE…TULLAHOMA…
MANCHESTER…MCMINNVILLE…TRACY CITY…ALTAMONT…COALMONT…
SPENCER…WAYNESBORO…LAWRENCEBURG…PULASKI
335 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007
…SNOW AND SLEET MAY DEVELOP IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY…
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THIS WEEK. A WEAK
STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST…CAUSING MOISTURE
TO SPREAD ACROSS TENNESSEE AND SURROUNDING AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SNOW AND SLEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN ON THURSDAY.
EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME…BUT EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME AREAS COULD HAVE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL…ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
SNOW AND ICE COULD MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY…SO PEOPLE SHOULD MONITOR
UPDATED FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTER
WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE REGION.
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:38 PM
blah blah blah….they same the same I-40 crap every time. Ther eare many spots below I-40 that are over 1,000 feet above sea level which effects the precip type.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:39 PM
I never said that this was intelligent, just thought I would post this.
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:40 PM
also if it starts as snow wed. and we get 1-2 inches the temps WILL NOT rise much at all thursday….so that statement is not completely accurate to me.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:42 PM
Wednesday
Mostly Sunny
Mostly
Sunny
Hi 35°F Wednesday
Night
Snow Likely. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%
Snow
Likely
Lo 25°F Thursday
Snow/Sleet. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%
Snow/Sleet
Hi 36°F Thursday
Night
Chance Snow. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Snow
Lo 30°F Friday
Chance Snow. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Snow
This is posted on NOAA website.
Posted by: Pats at January 29, 2007 03:52 PM
Sorry Jamie….didn’t mean to blast you at all….just the NWS screwing up again with their logic…
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:53 PM
Gabe,
We will have no problem as long as you spell my name right
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:56 PM
lol sorry….Jaime…is that pronouced (Jay-meeh) thats a different way to spell it. I know somebody named Mercy but its spelled mercie…kinda cool
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:02 PM
So this is sounding good!!!!!!!!! Yahhhhooooo!!!!
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 04:06 PM
18utc GFS and NAM are starting to come out and it shows a more northerly track to the low. Yes, I regret to say it but the 0C line has gone with it. does not mean that all hope is gone though. 18utc is often overridden substantially by the 00utc run. However, I think that the chance for counties on the border of Alabama will depend A LOT on the track of the low and even minor atmospheric changes. But if low takes a considerably more southerly track could see quite a bit of snow there. Right now think that counties on KY border (yes Gabe and those areas in higher elevations) stand a chance at a decent snow. we really need strong reinforcement of cold air and for the precip to not take its sweet time.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 04:20 PM
Matt I would not take the 18Gfs in account much. It does not have the upper air data that the 00UTC and the 12UTC runs do.Also when looking at the 2m temps this far out be very carefull making any calls. This line can swing north and south very easily. Even with snowcover Thursday could have too much WAA and cause a mix. Sounding charts should be used to look at this. As far as sunday and monday right now just look like snow showers. I dont see anything that is of concern yet.
Right now we are at a point where the forast is on the line. One can easily go ahead and make a call for wed night into thursday. I would wait till tomorrow to project snowfall amounts. Right now the Nws is calling areas getting 1-2″ of snow. This all depends on alot of things. This is when you wana watch the local stations to see how they handle a event. Its seems in my eyes wkrn is handling this well. I know no one wants to get everyone worked up over nothing but by tomorrow afternoon we will bavea a good idea of what happens wed night into thurs. Thanks
Posted by: Rob at January 29, 2007 04:32 PM
When they issue statements this early, we never get anything. We have just been cursed. What will probably happen is either 1) low will go too far south and we get nothing in Nashville, while northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee get 6 to 8 inchs or 2) it will go a little farther north and we get mostly rain. They will double curse us Wednesday by spreading or spraying ungodly amounts of salt on the raods.
I hope I am wrong because nobody wants snow more than me.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 04:37 PM
Lol Heath that will be good for me cause i live right on the boarder of Alabama.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 04:40 PM
Got to love that low of 88 on Monday morning haha. Nice type, or is it that old Nashville heat island.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 04:42 PM
I still think if we get an inch or 2 overnight wed. the temps will not rise.
Also is 1,000 feet in elevation a big difference from the 350 that nashville is at…..cause hohenwald where i live is 1,000+ in elevation
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:53 PM
People talk about cookville being elevated but…..hohenwald is just like 50 feet different
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:56 PM
NWS now saying snow with a little sleet….but mostly snow! Guess there is gonna be a little more cold air aloft….and their temps are coming down too
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:59 PM
Not to bust anyone’s bubble but most of all of the forecasters,including NWS, trend to the snow changing over to rain. As the system moves east and pulls in warmer air. If that is the case I hope it does not snow. Cause snow changing over to rain is worse thing ever. Watching the snow just get washed away in a big sloppy mess.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 05:04 PM
Now we really are jinxed.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:05 PM
Alex I just see snow mixed with sleet…not rain…maybe thats cause i live in hohenwald
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:07 PM
Hey Gabe. I live in Nashville, but on the Nashville Rim. Elevations around 1000 feet. Its quite a pretty view on top of the hill.
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 05:07 PM
From Mr. James Spann down at ABC 33/40 in Birmingham….
(edited for length)
*Much of the nation will be flooded with very cold air in the next two weeks (in some cases, the coldest air in one or two decades)
*”Most of the snow from this system will come Wednesday night and Thursday morning along and north of U.S. 72, especially north of the Tennessee border. The I-40 corridor could see several inches of snow, including Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, and Asheville.”
“As always, this could, and probably will change during the next 24 to 36 hours… stay tuned.”
http://www.alabamawx.com
~hold on to your hats, it’s SHOWTIME!
Posted by: Mike from Cookeville at January 29, 2007 05:08 PM
Also, if the system is moving to our south, why does Hopkinsville Ky have a greater chance of precip than we do here? They have 70% Wed night and 80% Thursday.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:09 PM
pretty much if you live in any outside suburb of nashville, you will be at least 200-300 feet higher. but gabe, i totally agree with you on the whole elevation thing. at first, i didn’t think a difference of 600-700 feet would make much of a difference. but last february when most areas in nashville were getting rain, due to that infamous “wave of warmer area” riding up I-65, where i was living at the time south and east of town (elevation: 936 ft) had two inches on the ground. anyway, like i said earlier, i’m not making any bets or plans until the 24 hour marker (tomorrow night)…if everything starts headin’ in our favor, i’ll be racing to nashville from mobile wednesday afternoon. i’ll tell the people at my church here in mobile to pray that the low heads towards them and not towards birmingham! lol!
Posted by: Cameron Fry at January 29, 2007 05:09 PM
Read the special weather statement. It says the snow will gradually change over to a mix or just rain on Thursday. The models have been trending to this too.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 05:14 PM
Yeah….i remember that storm. Here in hohenwald we got 3 inches….while columbia(just 30 miles east) with an elevation about 500 feet lower got rain. Funny thing is our local METS don’t forecast it that way….they just lump southern middle tennessee all together. But 950-1000 feet makes a difference
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:15 PM
Hey alex…those guys also said yesterday it would not negoin until friday night….so sorry if i dont trust that info too much. Also i was reading another forecast where it says most snow will be between nashville and highway 72 around huntsville alabama…everybody has different forecasts right now.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:22 PM
Rob I know all that about the GFS and the warm winds. I’m just analyzing the 18z model run. I know that 18z is the least accurate but also think that it will be hard to get too much snow in southern counties.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 05:28 PM
Ok…ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE. EVerything is up in the air right now…. I have an opinion right now but it could change,a more definitive forecast will come by tomorrows models.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:28 PM
once again….don’t lump all south counties together…some of us are over 1,000 feet in elevation
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:29 PM
Yes yall got to remeber they were not forecasting anything big yesterday but now look whats in the mix. Weather changes in a blink of an eye. They cant pinpoint were a tornado is going to hit so what makes you think they can pinpoint were snow is going to hit. We just got to watch and see damit!!!!! All hale satan lord of darkness!!!! Hes in control
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:32 PM
What elevation is Hermitage/Mt. Juliet area?
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:33 PM
Not even Satin is that ignorant. perhaps you need to get a life. Maybe you should find another outlet for your jealousy. Afterall, hatred is a by product of jealousy.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:43 PM
Ok, so it’s looking like we are going to get some kind of winter precip., finally! Of course it will be along the I-40 line to the north, always is!! I think Rutherford, Williamson, and Davidson county have this anti-snow bubble around them every winter. It always seems to snow above, below, and beside these three counties, but never in these counties. I’ve been doing my snow dance, and I’ve got my fingers crossed this time we get something!!! LET IT SNOW
Posted by: Meghan at January 29, 2007 05:43 PM
What does the Farmer’s Almanac say for this week?
Posted by: Lucas at January 29, 2007 05:45 PM
mine says flurries.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 05:46 PM
Whoever posted in my name earlier….remember, immitation is the most sincere from of flattery…..thanks!
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:51 PM
Heath…Mt. Juliet is close to 600 feet. wheras nashvile is around 450.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:54 PM
For the Channel 2 Mets:
What weather event occurred on January 28, 1951? I read an article about falling temps and a memorable weather event but that was all that was mentioned. Was it an ice storm that hit Middle Tennessee on that date? Thanks
Posted by: WeatherGeek at January 29, 2007 05:55 PM
Meghan, I can remember 3 winters ago when i lived in Antioch, it did snow a complete circle around my house. My ground did not get covered a single time that winter. But the rest of Middle Tennessee got snow at some point.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:56 PM
The Great Ice Storm of 1951. Now go and google it.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 05:57 PM
My updated Snow analysis at MTEC is hot of the press, if anybody wants to check it out
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 06:03 PM
MTWC, I mean.
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 06:04 PM
Coldest Morning This Winter | Main | Re-enforcing Cold Front Moving In on Tuesday Morning…& The Latest On The “Wintery” Situation Later This Week »
January 29, 2007
Model Flip-Flops
Most of the computer models we use to create a forecast are run four times per day. In this difficult weather pattern, the same model might yield four different solution in 24 short hours! The models have oscillated from a cold to warm solution between this morning and midday. Disappointing for snow lovers, but hope is not lost. It’s important not to get caught up in the run-to-run details and keep your eye on the big picture.
Below is tomorrow’s predicted upper air pattern. Two things to point out: a big disturbance diving through the Midwest will bring cold northwest winds and reinforce the chill tomorrow. We might even squeeze out a few flurries. The second, more important feature is off the Southern California coast in the image below. That upper air disturbance will swing east and cause a surface low to develop late Wednesday through Thursday. The low pressure will pass south of Tennessee but the exact track remains uncertain. The particular path of that surface low will determine what type of precipitation we get on Thursday.
The late morning model runs suggest that the surface low pressure will move from Houston to Birmingham. That’s farther north (and warmer) than the early morning models had predicted. Again, it’s important to not get caught up in the run-to-run details of the computer models. The upper air disturbance that will kick start our mid-week system is roughly 2,000 miles away! I think we’ll see more model flip-flopping in the next few days…so stay tuned to the blog and our television forecasts for the latest thinking.
Posted by Justin at January 29, 2007 11:28 AM
Comments
Time for the snow dance!!!!
Thanks for the info Justin. Please keep us snow lover’s update! Im crossing my fingers!
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 11:36 AM
We’ll just have to be patient and wait/see what happens!
There is a good snow coming for this winter, it’s just a question of when.
Posted by: Mike from Cookeville at January 29, 2007 11:38 AM
Guess it means no snow, huh
Posted by: Vicki at January 29, 2007 11:38 AM
Come on snowflakes!!! We need the snow to close schools in Rutherford County so our sick kids will have time to get well without missing class time. And a little snow play won’t hurt either!!
Posted by: Meghan at January 29, 2007 11:38 AM
Amen Meghan, Although my 9 year old has had the crud twice since Xmas vacation, I think a big snow day would be just what the doctor ordered. Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow!!!!!
Posted by: Pats at January 29, 2007 12:01 PM
My family is coming up to Gatlinburg this week…heading up tomorrow…is there a good chance we will see some snow?
Posted by: Brandi at January 29, 2007 12:03 PM
like i said i guess we live to close to hell and it does not snow in hell..
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 12:17 PM
That’s a cool weather model, man…if I stare at it, the swirls start to move…grooovy…
Posted by: Ginger at January 29, 2007 12:18 PM
ARRGGG!!
The dreaded northward trend with WAA. Man, I sure thought with all this cold air coming in that would be the last thing to happen with this storm.
Posted by: wdbeas at January 29, 2007 12:21 PM
Nice work guys, in reviewing weather.com, they have dropped there temp now to the low 40’s and calling for Rain then Snow, if you are fortunate enough to live in Clarksville they are calling for all snow with flurries tonight and tomorrow in that area
Posted by: weatherdawg at January 29, 2007 12:22 PM
It’s a real pisser living in Tennessee. Couple hundred miles further north and we would always be snow. A couple hundred miles south and it would always be rain. Our geographic location causes hell for all…lol
Posted by: Anon at January 29, 2007 12:29 PM
is dickson county school is closed tomorrow because of the flu.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 01:01 PM
Justin, we need snow this week and lots of it. Help!
Posted by: Vicki at January 29, 2007 01:40 PM
Right Now the Gfs is not the model to watch. I think the Euro has alot better handle on the situation. The track is going to play a big role in what type of precip comes down as wkrn has said. The latest 12Z Euro is out and Im looking at the Gempack Images right now. Right now the HPC puts this area in a Slight risk of 4″> of snow. So before we start hearing all this Its never gona snow and ” They ” can nevere get the forcast right. Its still too early to figure out details but the threat of a winter event is the greastest its been this year. So lets sit back and see how things pan out for a day. You can ride the up and down rollercoaster of models. You go with trends and agreement.
Posted by: Rpb at January 29, 2007 02:01 PM
I would like to go back and comment on the gfs.The Gfs could pan out correct no dout, but some other Met and I agree that the Euro is better to watch.
Posted by: Rob at January 29, 2007 02:08 PM
The GFS has been crappy the past few weeks anyways. I still say the low will go around montgomery and that would bring all snow wed. night and if we can accumulate an inch the temps wont rise.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:22 PM
however, if the low does pass over B-ham we have NO chance at snow. We need it to be between mobile and montgomery alabama
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:29 PM
and oh BTW if this system does not bring snow i will be officaly ANGRY!….hehe
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:31 PM
00utc shows the low south of montgomery starting wed. night….YAY! Lets hope that comes true
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:35 PM
I will be angry too. I need to stay home Thursday.
I want a snow day so bad I can’t stand it!!!
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 02:37 PM
If this system does not bring a decent amount of snow, I will go to the Grand Canyon and jump.
BTW, just for giggles…do any of the long range forecast show any possibility for snow around the end of the weekend and next week?
Back to taking it one system at a time now. Why can’t we have at least one ‘flip-flop’ go OUR way?!?
Posted by: Verbatim at January 29, 2007 02:39 PM
It’s because the models *cough* GFS!!! *cough* doesn’t handle cold air well and always underestimates WAA up until 18 minutes and 21 seconds before the event starts.
Posted by: Kailyn Leto at January 29, 2007 02:43 PM
Grammar error…models DON’T…
Posted by: Kailyn Leto at January 29, 2007 02:44 PM
dickson county school is closed tomorrow because of the flu.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 02:46 PM
Nws nashvile updated forcast. Wed night Snow likely and Thursday Snow/Sleet with chances of snow thursday night and friday. Alot can change people but right now we are looking pretty good for a decent snowfall. Special weather statements should be out soon.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 02:46 PM
$20 bucks says if the low tracks south of Birmingham we get nothing. Come back and review my post mid day Thursday…Rain or nothing folks.
Posted by: Clarence at January 29, 2007 02:55 PM
Wrong….if low goes south of B-ham then we get snow
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:04 PM
it is true that dickson county school is closed tomorrow because of the flu and the water pipe.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 03:05 PM
It depends on how much moisture we get and how much mid-to-upper-lever WAA we get.
Little moisture + little WAA/U = snow
Little moisture + little WAA/S = snow
Little moisture + gaping WAA/U = sleet
Little moisture + gaping WAA/S = rain
Gaping moisture + little WAA/U = snow
Gaping moisture + little WAA/S = repeat of 3/1996
Gaping moisture + gaping WAA/U = freezing rain
Gaping moisture + gaping WAA/S = repeat of 03/2002
Posted by: Kailyn Leto at January 29, 2007 03:08 PM
Hey mets!!!
Please give us an update!!! People are going to start getting rude again if you don’t…
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:12 PM
My so called expertise is in Severe Weather, but I have seen this setup so many times in the past. If the low is south of the B’ham area it will have much less affect on our upper air environs and the precip will be hard pressed to make it in here regardless of temps. If it is in the B’ham area or above look for warmer gulf air to work its way into the upper atmosphere in middle TN, screwing our chances…
Posted by: Clarence at January 29, 2007 03:16 PM
So things are looking up it sounds??? Maybe???? Possibly???
:) 
Can’t someone start a forum for people in Dickson County and care about the schools there????
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 03:17 PM
“My so called expertise is in Severe Weather, but I have seen this setup so many times in the past. If the low is south of the B’ham area it will have much less affect on our upper air environs and the precip will be hard pressed to make it in here regardless of temps. If it is in the B’ham area or above look for warmer gulf air to work its way into the upper atmosphere in middle TN, screwing our chances…”
Sounds an awfully lot like a lose-lose situation there…why would the mets and nws even bother putting snow in the forecast?
Posted by: Verbatim at January 29, 2007 03:21 PM
I ask myself that same question every winter…lol
Posted by: Clarence at January 29, 2007 03:23 PM
Ok this Wendesday night and Thursaday will start out as snow Wed/night and then mix Thursday before ending as another light snow Thursady night. Then Sunday looks very impressive with possibly an all snow event, with 1-5 inches possible.
Then looking at all long range models it appears the cold air will be locked in with up to 5 snow chances in the next 2 weeks. Winter is Back!!!!!!!
Posted by: JustSOYouKnow at January 29, 2007 03:24 PM
well at least the ground temperatures will be in our favor considering most locals were in single digits this morning…and we should be in the lower teens tuesday night-wednesday am as it stands now so that’s one thing in our favor. it seems to me if the storm is as strong as is described, the only element that is in question is the position of the gulf low obviously. not like it really matters but at least newschannel5 has lowered their temps and increased precip %…and NOAA is giving us a 60% chance of snow/sleet wednesday night. not like it means anything…
Posted by: Cameron Fry at January 29, 2007 03:29 PM
So what you are saying then is rain or nothing right?
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 03:34 PM
JustSO: anything that is forecast beyond 5days I never listen to. EVEN though the GFS shows an IMPRESSIVE system sunday-monday i will believe it when i see it
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:36 PM
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
335 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007
TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-301015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…DOVER…CLARKSVILLE…SPRINGFIELD…
GALLATIN…LAFAYETTE…CELINA…BYRDSTOWN…CAMDEN…ERIN…
WAVERLY…DICKSON…ASHLAND CITY…KINGSTON SPRINGS…NASHVILLE…
LEBANON…MOUNT JULIET…HARTSVILLE…CARTHAGE…GAINESBORO…
COOKEVILLE…LIVINGSTON…JAMESTOWN…ALLARDT…LINDEN…
LOBELVILLE…CENTERVILLE…HOHENWALD…FRANKLIN…BRENTWOOD…
COLUMBIA…LEWISBURG…MURFREESBORO…WOODBURY…SMITHVILLE…
SPARTA…CROSSVILLE…FAIRFIELD GLADE…SHELBYVILLE…TULLAHOMA…
MANCHESTER…MCMINNVILLE…TRACY CITY…ALTAMONT…COALMONT…
SPENCER…WAYNESBORO…LAWRENCEBURG…PULASKI
335 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007
…SNOW AND SLEET MAY DEVELOP IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY…
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THIS WEEK. A WEAK
STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST…CAUSING MOISTURE
TO SPREAD ACROSS TENNESSEE AND SURROUNDING AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SNOW AND SLEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN ON THURSDAY.
EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME…BUT EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME AREAS COULD HAVE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL…ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
SNOW AND ICE COULD MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY…SO PEOPLE SHOULD MONITOR
UPDATED FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTER
WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE REGION.
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:38 PM
blah blah blah….they same the same I-40 crap every time. Ther eare many spots below I-40 that are over 1,000 feet above sea level which effects the precip type.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:39 PM
I never said that this was intelligent, just thought I would post this.
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:40 PM
also if it starts as snow wed. and we get 1-2 inches the temps WILL NOT rise much at all thursday….so that statement is not completely accurate to me.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:42 PM
Wednesday
Mostly Sunny
Mostly
Sunny
Hi 35°F Wednesday
Night
Snow Likely. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%
Snow
Likely
Lo 25°F Thursday
Snow/Sleet. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%
Snow/Sleet
Hi 36°F Thursday
Night
Chance Snow. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Snow
Lo 30°F Friday
Chance Snow. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Snow
This is posted on NOAA website.
Posted by: Pats at January 29, 2007 03:52 PM
Sorry Jamie….didn’t mean to blast you at all….just the NWS screwing up again with their logic…
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:53 PM
Gabe,
We will have no problem as long as you spell my name right
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:56 PM
lol sorry….Jaime…is that pronouced (Jay-meeh) thats a different way to spell it. I know somebody named Mercy but its spelled mercie…kinda cool
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:02 PM
So this is sounding good!!!!!!!!! Yahhhhooooo!!!!
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 04:06 PM
18utc GFS and NAM are starting to come out and it shows a more northerly track to the low. Yes, I regret to say it but the 0C line has gone with it. does not mean that all hope is gone though. 18utc is often overridden substantially by the 00utc run. However, I think that the chance for counties on the border of Alabama will depend A LOT on the track of the low and even minor atmospheric changes. But if low takes a considerably more southerly track could see quite a bit of snow there. Right now think that counties on KY border (yes Gabe and those areas in higher elevations) stand a chance at a decent snow. we really need strong reinforcement of cold air and for the precip to not take its sweet time.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 04:20 PM
Matt I would not take the 18Gfs in account much. It does not have the upper air data that the 00UTC and the 12UTC runs do.Also when looking at the 2m temps this far out be very carefull making any calls. This line can swing north and south very easily. Even with snowcover Thursday could have too much WAA and cause a mix. Sounding charts should be used to look at this. As far as sunday and monday right now just look like snow showers. I dont see anything that is of concern yet.
Right now we are at a point where the forast is on the line. One can easily go ahead and make a call for wed night into thursday. I would wait till tomorrow to project snowfall amounts. Right now the Nws is calling areas getting 1-2″ of snow. This all depends on alot of things. This is when you wana watch the local stations to see how they handle a event. Its seems in my eyes wkrn is handling this well. I know no one wants to get everyone worked up over nothing but by tomorrow afternoon we will bavea a good idea of what happens wed night into thurs. Thanks
Posted by: Rob at January 29, 2007 04:32 PM
When they issue statements this early, we never get anything. We have just been cursed. What will probably happen is either 1) low will go too far south and we get nothing in Nashville, while northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee get 6 to 8 inchs or 2) it will go a little farther north and we get mostly rain. They will double curse us Wednesday by spreading or spraying ungodly amounts of salt on the raods.
I hope I am wrong because nobody wants snow more than me.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 04:37 PM
Lol Heath that will be good for me cause i live right on the boarder of Alabama.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 04:40 PM
Got to love that low of 88 on Monday morning haha. Nice type, or is it that old Nashville heat island.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 04:42 PM
I still think if we get an inch or 2 overnight wed. the temps will not rise.
Also is 1,000 feet in elevation a big difference from the 350 that nashville is at…..cause hohenwald where i live is 1,000+ in elevation
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:53 PM
People talk about cookville being elevated but…..hohenwald is just like 50 feet different
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:56 PM
NWS now saying snow with a little sleet….but mostly snow! Guess there is gonna be a little more cold air aloft….and their temps are coming down too
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:59 PM
Not to bust anyone’s bubble but most of all of the forecasters,including NWS, trend to the snow changing over to rain. As the system moves east and pulls in warmer air. If that is the case I hope it does not snow. Cause snow changing over to rain is worse thing ever. Watching the snow just get washed away in a big sloppy mess.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 05:04 PM
Now we really are jinxed.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:05 PM
Alex I just see snow mixed with sleet…not rain…maybe thats cause i live in hohenwald
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:07 PM
Hey Gabe. I live in Nashville, but on the Nashville Rim. Elevations around 1000 feet. Its quite a pretty view on top of the hill.
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 05:07 PM
From Mr. James Spann down at ABC 33/40 in Birmingham….
(edited for length)
*Much of the nation will be flooded with very cold air in the next two weeks (in some cases, the coldest air in one or two decades)
*”Most of the snow from this system will come Wednesday night and Thursday morning along and north of U.S. 72, especially north of the Tennessee border. The I-40 corridor could see several inches of snow, including Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, and Asheville.”
“As always, this could, and probably will change during the next 24 to 36 hours… stay tuned.”
http://www.alabamawx.com
~hold on to your hats, it’s SHOWTIME!
Posted by: Mike from Cookeville at January 29, 2007 05:08 PM
Also, if the system is moving to our south, why does Hopkinsville Ky have a greater chance of precip than we do here? They have 70% Wed night and 80% Thursday.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:09 PM
pretty much if you live in any outside suburb of nashville, you will be at least 200-300 feet higher. but gabe, i totally agree with you on the whole elevation thing. at first, i didn’t think a difference of 600-700 feet would make much of a difference. but last february when most areas in nashville were getting rain, due to that infamous “wave of warmer area” riding up I-65, where i was living at the time south and east of town (elevation: 936 ft) had two inches on the ground. anyway, like i said earlier, i’m not making any bets or plans until the 24 hour marker (tomorrow night)…if everything starts headin’ in our favor, i’ll be racing to nashville from mobile wednesday afternoon. i’ll tell the people at my church here in mobile to pray that the low heads towards them and not towards birmingham! lol!
Posted by: Cameron Fry at January 29, 2007 05:09 PM
Read the special weather statement. It says the snow will gradually change over to a mix or just rain on Thursday. The models have been trending to this too.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 05:14 PM
Yeah….i remember that storm. Here in hohenwald we got 3 inches….while columbia(just 30 miles east) with an elevation about 500 feet lower got rain. Funny thing is our local METS don’t forecast it that way….they just lump southern middle tennessee all together. But 950-1000 feet makes a difference
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:15 PM
Hey alex…those guys also said yesterday it would not negoin until friday night….so sorry if i dont trust that info too much. Also i was reading another forecast where it says most snow will be between nashville and highway 72 around huntsville alabama…everybody has different forecasts right now.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:22 PM
Rob I know all that about the GFS and the warm winds. I’m just analyzing the 18z model run. I know that 18z is the least accurate but also think that it will be hard to get too much snow in southern counties.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 05:28 PM
Ok…ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE. EVerything is up in the air right now…. I have an opinion right now but it could change,a more definitive forecast will come by tomorrows models.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:28 PM
once again….don’t lump all south counties together…some of us are over 1,000 feet in elevation
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:29 PM
Yes yall got to remeber they were not forecasting anything big yesterday but now look whats in the mix. Weather changes in a blink of an eye. They cant pinpoint were a tornado is going to hit so what makes you think they can pinpoint were snow is going to hit. We just got to watch and see damit!!!!! All hale satan lord of darkness!!!! Hes in control
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:32 PM
What elevation is Hermitage/Mt. Juliet area?
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:33 PM
Not even Satin is that ignorant. perhaps you need to get a life. Maybe you should find another outlet for your jealousy. Afterall, hatred is a by product of jealousy.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:43 PM
Ok, so it’s looking like we are going to get some kind of winter precip., finally! Of course it will be along the I-40 line to the north, always is!! I think Rutherford, Williamson, and Davidson county have this anti-snow bubble around them every winter. It always seems to snow above, below, and beside these three counties, but never in these counties. I’ve been doing my snow dance, and I’ve got my fingers crossed this time we get something!!! LET IT SNOW
Posted by: Meghan at January 29, 2007 05:43 PM
What does the Farmer’s Almanac say for this week?
Posted by: Lucas at January 29, 2007 05:45 PM
mine says flurries.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 05:46 PM
Whoever posted in my name earlier….remember, immitation is the most sincere from of flattery…..thanks!
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:51 PM
Heath…Mt. Juliet is close to 600 feet. wheras nashvile is around 450.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:54 PM
For the Channel 2 Mets:
What weather event occurred on January 28, 1951? I read an article about falling temps and a memorable weather event but that was all that was mentioned. Was it an ice storm that hit Middle Tennessee on that date? Thanks
Posted by: WeatherGeek at January 29, 2007 05:55 PM
Meghan, I can remember 3 winters ago when i lived in Antioch, it did snow a complete circle around my house. My ground did not get covered a single time that winter. But the rest of Middle Tennessee got snow at some point.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:56 PM
The Great Ice Storm of 1951. Now go and google it.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 05:57 PM
My updated Snow analysis at MTEC is hot of the press, if anybody wants to check it out
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 06:03 PM
MTWC, I mean.
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 06:04 PM
Please give us an update!!! People are going to start getting rude again if you don’t…
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:12 PM
My so called expertise is in Severe Weather, but I have seen this setup so many times in the past. If the low is south of the B’ham area it will have much less affect on our upper air environs and the precip will be hard pressed to make it in here regardless of temps. If it is in the B’ham area or above look for warmer gulf air to work its way into the upper atmosphere in middle TN, screwing our chances…
Posted by: Clarence at January 29, 2007 03:16 PM
So things are looking up it sounds??? Maybe???? Possibly???
:) 
Can’t someone start a forum for people in Dickson County and care about the schools there????
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 03:17 PM
“My so called expertise is in Severe Weather, but I have seen this setup so many times in the past. If the low is south of the B’ham area it will have much less affect on our upper air environs and the precip will be hard pressed to make it in here regardless of temps. If it is in the B’ham area or above look for warmer gulf air to work its way into the upper atmosphere in middle TN, screwing our chances…”
Sounds an awfully lot like a lose-lose situation there…why would the mets and nws even bother putting snow in the forecast?
Posted by: Verbatim at January 29, 2007 03:21 PM
I ask myself that same question every winter…lol
Posted by: Clarence at January 29, 2007 03:23 PM
Ok this Wendesday night and Thursaday will start out as snow Wed/night and then mix Thursday before ending as another light snow Thursady night. Then Sunday looks very impressive with possibly an all snow event, with 1-5 inches possible.
Then looking at all long range models it appears the cold air will be locked in with up to 5 snow chances in the next 2 weeks. Winter is Back!!!!!!!
Posted by: JustSOYouKnow at January 29, 2007 03:24 PM
well at least the ground temperatures will be in our favor considering most locals were in single digits this morning…and we should be in the lower teens tuesday night-wednesday am as it stands now so that’s one thing in our favor. it seems to me if the storm is as strong as is described, the only element that is in question is the position of the gulf low obviously. not like it really matters but at least newschannel5 has lowered their temps and increased precip %…and NOAA is giving us a 60% chance of snow/sleet wednesday night. not like it means anything…
Posted by: Cameron Fry at January 29, 2007 03:29 PM
So what you are saying then is rain or nothing right?
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 03:34 PM
JustSO: anything that is forecast beyond 5days I never listen to. EVEN though the GFS shows an IMPRESSIVE system sunday-monday i will believe it when i see it
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:36 PM
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
335 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007
TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-301015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…DOVER…CLARKSVILLE…SPRINGFIELD…
GALLATIN…LAFAYETTE…CELINA…BYRDSTOWN…CAMDEN…ERIN…
WAVERLY…DICKSON…ASHLAND CITY…KINGSTON SPRINGS…NASHVILLE…
LEBANON…MOUNT JULIET…HARTSVILLE…CARTHAGE…GAINESBORO…
COOKEVILLE…LIVINGSTON…JAMESTOWN…ALLARDT…LINDEN…
LOBELVILLE…CENTERVILLE…HOHENWALD…FRANKLIN…BRENTWOOD…
COLUMBIA…LEWISBURG…MURFREESBORO…WOODBURY…SMITHVILLE…
SPARTA…CROSSVILLE…FAIRFIELD GLADE…SHELBYVILLE…TULLAHOMA…
MANCHESTER…MCMINNVILLE…TRACY CITY…ALTAMONT…COALMONT…
SPENCER…WAYNESBORO…LAWRENCEBURG…PULASKI
335 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007
…SNOW AND SLEET MAY DEVELOP IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY…
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THIS WEEK. A WEAK
STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST…CAUSING MOISTURE
TO SPREAD ACROSS TENNESSEE AND SURROUNDING AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SNOW AND SLEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN ON THURSDAY.
EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME…BUT EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME AREAS COULD HAVE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL…ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
SNOW AND ICE COULD MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY…SO PEOPLE SHOULD MONITOR
UPDATED FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTER
WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE REGION.
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:38 PM
blah blah blah….they same the same I-40 crap every time. Ther eare many spots below I-40 that are over 1,000 feet above sea level which effects the precip type.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:39 PM
I never said that this was intelligent, just thought I would post this.
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:40 PM
also if it starts as snow wed. and we get 1-2 inches the temps WILL NOT rise much at all thursday….so that statement is not completely accurate to me.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:42 PM
Wednesday
Mostly Sunny
Mostly
Sunny
Hi 35°F Wednesday
Night
Snow Likely. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%
Snow
Likely
Lo 25°F Thursday
Snow/Sleet. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%
Snow/Sleet
Hi 36°F Thursday
Night
Chance Snow. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Snow
Lo 30°F Friday
Chance Snow. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Snow
This is posted on NOAA website.
Posted by: Pats at January 29, 2007 03:52 PM
Sorry Jamie….didn’t mean to blast you at all….just the NWS screwing up again with their logic…
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:53 PM
Gabe,
We will have no problem as long as you spell my name right
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:56 PM
lol sorry….Jaime…is that pronouced (Jay-meeh) thats a different way to spell it. I know somebody named Mercy but its spelled mercie…kinda cool
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:02 PM
So this is sounding good!!!!!!!!! Yahhhhooooo!!!!
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 04:06 PM
18utc GFS and NAM are starting to come out and it shows a more northerly track to the low. Yes, I regret to say it but the 0C line has gone with it. does not mean that all hope is gone though. 18utc is often overridden substantially by the 00utc run. However, I think that the chance for counties on the border of Alabama will depend A LOT on the track of the low and even minor atmospheric changes. But if low takes a considerably more southerly track could see quite a bit of snow there. Right now think that counties on KY border (yes Gabe and those areas in higher elevations) stand a chance at a decent snow. we really need strong reinforcement of cold air and for the precip to not take its sweet time.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 04:20 PM
Matt I would not take the 18Gfs in account much. It does not have the upper air data that the 00UTC and the 12UTC runs do.Also when looking at the 2m temps this far out be very carefull making any calls. This line can swing north and south very easily. Even with snowcover Thursday could have too much WAA and cause a mix. Sounding charts should be used to look at this. As far as sunday and monday right now just look like snow showers. I dont see anything that is of concern yet.
Right now we are at a point where the forast is on the line. One can easily go ahead and make a call for wed night into thursday. I would wait till tomorrow to project snowfall amounts. Right now the Nws is calling areas getting 1-2″ of snow. This all depends on alot of things. This is when you wana watch the local stations to see how they handle a event. Its seems in my eyes wkrn is handling this well. I know no one wants to get everyone worked up over nothing but by tomorrow afternoon we will bavea a good idea of what happens wed night into thurs. Thanks
Posted by: Rob at January 29, 2007 04:32 PM
When they issue statements this early, we never get anything. We have just been cursed. What will probably happen is either 1) low will go too far south and we get nothing in Nashville, while northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee get 6 to 8 inchs or 2) it will go a little farther north and we get mostly rain. They will double curse us Wednesday by spreading or spraying ungodly amounts of salt on the raods.
I hope I am wrong because nobody wants snow more than me.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 04:37 PM
Lol Heath that will be good for me cause i live right on the boarder of Alabama.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 04:40 PM
Got to love that low of 88 on Monday morning haha. Nice type, or is it that old Nashville heat island.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 04:42 PM
I still think if we get an inch or 2 overnight wed. the temps will not rise.
Also is 1,000 feet in elevation a big difference from the 350 that nashville is at…..cause hohenwald where i live is 1,000+ in elevation
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:53 PM
People talk about cookville being elevated but…..hohenwald is just like 50 feet different
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:56 PM
NWS now saying snow with a little sleet….but mostly snow! Guess there is gonna be a little more cold air aloft….and their temps are coming down too
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:59 PM
Not to bust anyone’s bubble but most of all of the forecasters,including NWS, trend to the snow changing over to rain. As the system moves east and pulls in warmer air. If that is the case I hope it does not snow. Cause snow changing over to rain is worse thing ever. Watching the snow just get washed away in a big sloppy mess.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 05:04 PM
Now we really are jinxed.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:05 PM
Alex I just see snow mixed with sleet…not rain…maybe thats cause i live in hohenwald
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:07 PM
Hey Gabe. I live in Nashville, but on the Nashville Rim. Elevations around 1000 feet. Its quite a pretty view on top of the hill.
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 05:07 PM
From Mr. James Spann down at ABC 33/40 in Birmingham….
(edited for length)
*Much of the nation will be flooded with very cold air in the next two weeks (in some cases, the coldest air in one or two decades)
*”Most of the snow from this system will come Wednesday night and Thursday morning along and north of U.S. 72, especially north of the Tennessee border. The I-40 corridor could see several inches of snow, including Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, and Asheville.”
“As always, this could, and probably will change during the next 24 to 36 hours… stay tuned.”
http://www.alabamawx.com
~hold on to your hats, it’s SHOWTIME!
Posted by: Mike from Cookeville at January 29, 2007 05:08 PM
Also, if the system is moving to our south, why does Hopkinsville Ky have a greater chance of precip than we do here? They have 70% Wed night and 80% Thursday.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:09 PM
pretty much if you live in any outside suburb of nashville, you will be at least 200-300 feet higher. but gabe, i totally agree with you on the whole elevation thing. at first, i didn’t think a difference of 600-700 feet would make much of a difference. but last february when most areas in nashville were getting rain, due to that infamous “wave of warmer area” riding up I-65, where i was living at the time south and east of town (elevation: 936 ft) had two inches on the ground. anyway, like i said earlier, i’m not making any bets or plans until the 24 hour marker (tomorrow night)…if everything starts headin’ in our favor, i’ll be racing to nashville from mobile wednesday afternoon. i’ll tell the people at my church here in mobile to pray that the low heads towards them and not towards birmingham! lol!
Posted by: Cameron Fry at January 29, 2007 05:09 PM
Read the special weather statement. It says the snow will gradually change over to a mix or just rain on Thursday. The models have been trending to this too.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 05:14 PM
Yeah….i remember that storm. Here in hohenwald we got 3 inches….while columbia(just 30 miles east) with an elevation about 500 feet lower got rain. Funny thing is our local METS don’t forecast it that way….they just lump southern middle tennessee all together. But 950-1000 feet makes a difference
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:15 PM
Hey alex…those guys also said yesterday it would not negoin until friday night….so sorry if i dont trust that info too much. Also i was reading another forecast where it says most snow will be between nashville and highway 72 around huntsville alabama…everybody has different forecasts right now.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:22 PM
Rob I know all that about the GFS and the warm winds. I’m just analyzing the 18z model run. I know that 18z is the least accurate but also think that it will be hard to get too much snow in southern counties.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 05:28 PM
Ok…ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE. EVerything is up in the air right now…. I have an opinion right now but it could change,a more definitive forecast will come by tomorrows models.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:28 PM
once again….don’t lump all south counties together…some of us are over 1,000 feet in elevation
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:29 PM
Yes yall got to remeber they were not forecasting anything big yesterday but now look whats in the mix. Weather changes in a blink of an eye. They cant pinpoint were a tornado is going to hit so what makes you think they can pinpoint were snow is going to hit. We just got to watch and see damit!!!!! All hale satan lord of darkness!!!! Hes in control
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:32 PM
What elevation is Hermitage/Mt. Juliet area?
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:33 PM
Not even Satin is that ignorant. perhaps you need to get a life. Maybe you should find another outlet for your jealousy. Afterall, hatred is a by product of jealousy.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:43 PM
Ok, so it’s looking like we are going to get some kind of winter precip., finally! Of course it will be along the I-40 line to the north, always is!! I think Rutherford, Williamson, and Davidson county have this anti-snow bubble around them every winter. It always seems to snow above, below, and beside these three counties, but never in these counties. I’ve been doing my snow dance, and I’ve got my fingers crossed this time we get something!!! LET IT SNOW
Posted by: Meghan at January 29, 2007 05:43 PM
What does the Farmer’s Almanac say for this week?
Posted by: Lucas at January 29, 2007 05:45 PM
mine says flurries.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 05:46 PM
Whoever posted in my name earlier….remember, immitation is the most sincere from of flattery…..thanks!
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:51 PM
Heath…Mt. Juliet is close to 600 feet. wheras nashvile is around 450.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:54 PM
For the Channel 2 Mets:
What weather event occurred on January 28, 1951? I read an article about falling temps and a memorable weather event but that was all that was mentioned. Was it an ice storm that hit Middle Tennessee on that date? Thanks
Posted by: WeatherGeek at January 29, 2007 05:55 PM
Meghan, I can remember 3 winters ago when i lived in Antioch, it did snow a complete circle around my house. My ground did not get covered a single time that winter. But the rest of Middle Tennessee got snow at some point.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:56 PM
The Great Ice Storm of 1951. Now go and google it.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 05:57 PM
My updated Snow analysis at MTEC is hot of the press, if anybody wants to check it out
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 06:03 PM
MTWC, I mean.
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 06:04 PM
Posted by: Anonymous at January 30, 2007 02:04 AM
Coldest Morning This Winter | Main | Re-enforcing Cold Front Moving In on Tuesday Morning…& The Latest On The “Wintery” Situation Later This Week »
January 29, 2007
Model Flip-Flops
Most of the computer models we use to create a forecast are run four times per day. In this difficult weather pattern, the same model might yield four different solution in 24 short hours! The models have oscillated from a cold to warm solution between this morning and midday. Disappointing for snow lovers, but hope is not lost. It’s important not to get caught up in the run-to-run details and keep your eye on the big picture.
Below is tomorrow’s predicted upper air pattern. Two things to point out: a big disturbance diving through the Midwest will bring cold northwest winds and reinforce the chill tomorrow. We might even squeeze out a few flurries. The second, more important feature is off the Southern California coast in the image below. That upper air disturbance will swing east and cause a surface low to develop late Wednesday through Thursday. The low pressure will pass south of Tennessee but the exact track remains uncertain. The particular path of that surface low will determine what type of precipitation we get on Thursday.
The late morning model runs suggest that the surface low pressure will move from Houston to Birmingham. That’s farther north (and warmer) than the early morning models had predicted. Again, it’s important to not get caught up in the run-to-run details of the computer models. The upper air disturbance that will kick start our mid-week system is roughly 2,000 miles away! I think we’ll see more model flip-flopping in the next few days…so stay tuned to the blog and our television forecasts for the latest thinking.
Posted by Justin at January 29, 2007 11:28 AM
Comments
Time for the snow dance!!!!
Thanks for the info Justin. Please keep us snow lover’s update! Im crossing my fingers!
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 11:36 AM
We’ll just have to be patient and wait/see what happens!
There is a good snow coming for this winter, it’s just a question of when.
Posted by: Mike from Cookeville at January 29, 2007 11:38 AM
Guess it means no snow, huh
Posted by: Vicki at January 29, 2007 11:38 AM
Come on snowflakes!!! We need the snow to close schools in Rutherford County so our sick kids will have time to get well without missing class time. And a little snow play won’t hurt either!!
Posted by: Meghan at January 29, 2007 11:38 AM
Amen Meghan, Although my 9 year old has had the crud twice since Xmas vacation, I think a big snow day would be just what the doctor ordered. Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow!!!!!
Posted by: Pats at January 29, 2007 12:01 PM
My family is coming up to Gatlinburg this week…heading up tomorrow…is there a good chance we will see some snow?
Posted by: Brandi at January 29, 2007 12:03 PM
like i said i guess we live to close to hell and it does not snow in hell..
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 12:17 PM
That’s a cool weather model, man…if I stare at it, the swirls start to move…grooovy…
Posted by: Ginger at January 29, 2007 12:18 PM
ARRGGG!!
The dreaded northward trend with WAA. Man, I sure thought with all this cold air coming in that would be the last thing to happen with this storm.
Posted by: wdbeas at January 29, 2007 12:21 PM
Nice work guys, in reviewing weather.com, they have dropped there temp now to the low 40’s and calling for Rain then Snow, if you are fortunate enough to live in Clarksville they are calling for all snow with flurries tonight and tomorrow in that area
Posted by: weatherdawg at January 29, 2007 12:22 PM
It’s a real pisser living in Tennessee. Couple hundred miles further north and we would always be snow. A couple hundred miles south and it would always be rain. Our geographic location causes hell for all…lol
Posted by: Anon at January 29, 2007 12:29 PM
is dickson county school is closed tomorrow because of the flu.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 01:01 PM
Justin, we need snow this week and lots of it. Help!
Posted by: Vicki at January 29, 2007 01:40 PM
Right Now the Gfs is not the model to watch. I think the Euro has alot better handle on the situation. The track is going to play a big role in what type of precip comes down as wkrn has said. The latest 12Z Euro is out and Im looking at the Gempack Images right now. Right now the HPC puts this area in a Slight risk of 4″> of snow. So before we start hearing all this Its never gona snow and ” They ” can nevere get the forcast right. Its still too early to figure out details but the threat of a winter event is the greastest its been this year. So lets sit back and see how things pan out for a day. You can ride the up and down rollercoaster of models. You go with trends and agreement.
Posted by: Rpb at January 29, 2007 02:01 PM
I would like to go back and comment on the gfs.The Gfs could pan out correct no dout, but some other Met and I agree that the Euro is better to watch.
Posted by: Rob at January 29, 2007 02:08 PM
The GFS has been crappy the past few weeks anyways. I still say the low will go around montgomery and that would bring all snow wed. night and if we can accumulate an inch the temps wont rise.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:22 PM
however, if the low does pass over B-ham we have NO chance at snow. We need it to be between mobile and montgomery alabama
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:29 PM
and oh BTW if this system does not bring snow i will be officaly ANGRY!….hehe
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:31 PM
00utc shows the low south of montgomery starting wed. night….YAY! Lets hope that comes true
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:35 PM
I will be angry too. I need to stay home Thursday.
I want a snow day so bad I can’t stand it!!!
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 02:37 PM
If this system does not bring a decent amount of snow, I will go to the Grand Canyon and jump.
BTW, just for giggles…do any of the long range forecast show any possibility for snow around the end of the weekend and next week?
Back to taking it one system at a time now. Why can’t we have at least one ‘flip-flop’ go OUR way?!?
Posted by: Verbatim at January 29, 2007 02:39 PM
It’s because the models *cough* GFS!!! *cough* doesn’t handle cold air well and always underestimates WAA up until 18 minutes and 21 seconds before the event starts.
Posted by: Kailyn Leto at January 29, 2007 02:43 PM
Grammar error…models DON’T…
Posted by: Kailyn Leto at January 29, 2007 02:44 PM
dickson county school is closed tomorrow because of the flu.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 02:46 PM
Nws nashvile updated forcast. Wed night Snow likely and Thursday Snow/Sleet with chances of snow thursday night and friday. Alot can change people but right now we are looking pretty good for a decent snowfall. Special weather statements should be out soon.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 02:46 PM
$20 bucks says if the low tracks south of Birmingham we get nothing. Come back and review my post mid day Thursday…Rain or nothing folks.
Posted by: Clarence at January 29, 2007 02:55 PM
Wrong….if low goes south of B-ham then we get snow
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:04 PM
it is true that dickson county school is closed tomorrow because of the flu and the water pipe.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 03:05 PM
It depends on how much moisture we get and how much mid-to-upper-lever WAA we get.
Little moisture + little WAA/U = snow
Little moisture + little WAA/S = snow
Little moisture + gaping WAA/U = sleet
Little moisture + gaping WAA/S = rain
Gaping moisture + little WAA/U = snow
Gaping moisture + little WAA/S = repeat of 3/1996
Gaping moisture + gaping WAA/U = freezing rain
Gaping moisture + gaping WAA/S = repeat of 03/2002
Posted by: Kailyn Leto at January 29, 2007 03:08 PM
Hey mets!!!
Please give us an update!!! People are going to start getting rude again if you don’t…
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:12 PM
My so called expertise is in Severe Weather, but I have seen this setup so many times in the past. If the low is south of the B’ham area it will have much less affect on our upper air environs and the precip will be hard pressed to make it in here regardless of temps. If it is in the B’ham area or above look for warmer gulf air to work its way into the upper atmosphere in middle TN, screwing our chances…
Posted by: Clarence at January 29, 2007 03:16 PM
So things are looking up it sounds??? Maybe???? Possibly???
:) 
Can’t someone start a forum for people in Dickson County and care about the schools there????
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 03:17 PM
“My so called expertise is in Severe Weather, but I have seen this setup so many times in the past. If the low is south of the B’ham area it will have much less affect on our upper air environs and the precip will be hard pressed to make it in here regardless of temps. If it is in the B’ham area or above look for warmer gulf air to work its way into the upper atmosphere in middle TN, screwing our chances…”
Sounds an awfully lot like a lose-lose situation there…why would the mets and nws even bother putting snow in the forecast?
Posted by: Verbatim at January 29, 2007 03:21 PM
I ask myself that same question every winter…lol
Posted by: Clarence at January 29, 2007 03:23 PM
Ok this Wendesday night and Thursaday will start out as snow Wed/night and then mix Thursday before ending as another light snow Thursady night. Then Sunday looks very impressive with possibly an all snow event, with 1-5 inches possible.
Then looking at all long range models it appears the cold air will be locked in with up to 5 snow chances in the next 2 weeks. Winter is Back!!!!!!!
Posted by: JustSOYouKnow at January 29, 2007 03:24 PM
well at least the ground temperatures will be in our favor considering most locals were in single digits this morning…and we should be in the lower teens tuesday night-wednesday am as it stands now so that’s one thing in our favor. it seems to me if the storm is as strong as is described, the only element that is in question is the position of the gulf low obviously. not like it really matters but at least newschannel5 has lowered their temps and increased precip %…and NOAA is giving us a 60% chance of snow/sleet wednesday night. not like it means anything…
Posted by: Cameron Fry at January 29, 2007 03:29 PM
So what you are saying then is rain or nothing right?
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 03:34 PM
JustSO: anything that is forecast beyond 5days I never listen to. EVEN though the GFS shows an IMPRESSIVE system sunday-monday i will believe it when i see it
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:36 PM
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
335 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007
TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-301015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…DOVER…CLARKSVILLE…SPRINGFIELD…
GALLATIN…LAFAYETTE…CELINA…BYRDSTOWN…CAMDEN…ERIN…
WAVERLY…DICKSON…ASHLAND CITY…KINGSTON SPRINGS…NASHVILLE…
LEBANON…MOUNT JULIET…HARTSVILLE…CARTHAGE…GAINESBORO…
COOKEVILLE…LIVINGSTON…JAMESTOWN…ALLARDT…LINDEN…
LOBELVILLE…CENTERVILLE…HOHENWALD…FRANKLIN…BRENTWOOD…
COLUMBIA…LEWISBURG…MURFREESBORO…WOODBURY…SMITHVILLE…
SPARTA…CROSSVILLE…FAIRFIELD GLADE…SHELBYVILLE…TULLAHOMA…
MANCHESTER…MCMINNVILLE…TRACY CITY…ALTAMONT…COALMONT…
SPENCER…WAYNESBORO…LAWRENCEBURG…PULASKI
335 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007
…SNOW AND SLEET MAY DEVELOP IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY…
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THIS WEEK. A WEAK
STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST…CAUSING MOISTURE
TO SPREAD ACROSS TENNESSEE AND SURROUNDING AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SNOW AND SLEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN ON THURSDAY.
EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME…BUT EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME AREAS COULD HAVE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL…ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
SNOW AND ICE COULD MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY…SO PEOPLE SHOULD MONITOR
UPDATED FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTER
WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE REGION.
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:38 PM
blah blah blah….they same the same I-40 crap every time. Ther eare many spots below I-40 that are over 1,000 feet above sea level which effects the precip type.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:39 PM
I never said that this was intelligent, just thought I would post this.
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:40 PM
also if it starts as snow wed. and we get 1-2 inches the temps WILL NOT rise much at all thursday….so that statement is not completely accurate to me.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:42 PM
Wednesday
Mostly Sunny
Mostly
Sunny
Hi 35°F Wednesday
Night
Snow Likely. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%
Snow
Likely
Lo 25°F Thursday
Snow/Sleet. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%
Snow/Sleet
Hi 36°F Thursday
Night
Chance Snow. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Snow
Lo 30°F Friday
Chance Snow. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Snow
This is posted on NOAA website.
Posted by: Pats at January 29, 2007 03:52 PM
Sorry Jamie….didn’t mean to blast you at all….just the NWS screwing up again with their logic…
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:53 PM
Gabe,
We will have no problem as long as you spell my name right
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:56 PM
lol sorry….Jaime…is that pronouced (Jay-meeh) thats a different way to spell it. I know somebody named Mercy but its spelled mercie…kinda cool
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:02 PM
So this is sounding good!!!!!!!!! Yahhhhooooo!!!!
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 04:06 PM
18utc GFS and NAM are starting to come out and it shows a more northerly track to the low. Yes, I regret to say it but the 0C line has gone with it. does not mean that all hope is gone though. 18utc is often overridden substantially by the 00utc run. However, I think that the chance for counties on the border of Alabama will depend A LOT on the track of the low and even minor atmospheric changes. But if low takes a considerably more southerly track could see quite a bit of snow there. Right now think that counties on KY border (yes Gabe and those areas in higher elevations) stand a chance at a decent snow. we really need strong reinforcement of cold air and for the precip to not take its sweet time.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 04:20 PM
Matt I would not take the 18Gfs in account much. It does not have the upper air data that the 00UTC and the 12UTC runs do.Also when looking at the 2m temps this far out be very carefull making any calls. This line can swing north and south very easily. Even with snowcover Thursday could have too much WAA and cause a mix. Sounding charts should be used to look at this. As far as sunday and monday right now just look like snow showers. I dont see anything that is of concern yet.
Right now we are at a point where the forast is on the line. One can easily go ahead and make a call for wed night into thursday. I would wait till tomorrow to project snowfall amounts. Right now the Nws is calling areas getting 1-2″ of snow. This all depends on alot of things. This is when you wana watch the local stations to see how they handle a event. Its seems in my eyes wkrn is handling this well. I know no one wants to get everyone worked up over nothing but by tomorrow afternoon we will bavea a good idea of what happens wed night into thurs. Thanks
Posted by: Rob at January 29, 2007 04:32 PM
When they issue statements this early, we never get anything. We have just been cursed. What will probably happen is either 1) low will go too far south and we get nothing in Nashville, while northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee get 6 to 8 inchs or 2) it will go a little farther north and we get mostly rain. They will double curse us Wednesday by spreading or spraying ungodly amounts of salt on the raods.
I hope I am wrong because nobody wants snow more than me.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 04:37 PM
Lol Heath that will be good for me cause i live right on the boarder of Alabama.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 04:40 PM
Got to love that low of 88 on Monday morning haha. Nice type, or is it that old Nashville heat island.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 04:42 PM
I still think if we get an inch or 2 overnight wed. the temps will not rise.
Also is 1,000 feet in elevation a big difference from the 350 that nashville is at…..cause hohenwald where i live is 1,000+ in elevation
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:53 PM
People talk about cookville being elevated but…..hohenwald is just like 50 feet different
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:56 PM
NWS now saying snow with a little sleet….but mostly snow! Guess there is gonna be a little more cold air aloft….and their temps are coming down too
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:59 PM
Not to bust anyone’s bubble but most of all of the forecasters,including NWS, trend to the snow changing over to rain. As the system moves east and pulls in warmer air. If that is the case I hope it does not snow. Cause snow changing over to rain is worse thing ever. Watching the snow just get washed away in a big sloppy mess.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 05:04 PM
Now we really are jinxed.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:05 PM
Alex I just see snow mixed with sleet…not rain…maybe thats cause i live in hohenwald
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:07 PM
Hey Gabe. I live in Nashville, but on the Nashville Rim. Elevations around 1000 feet. Its quite a pretty view on top of the hill.
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 05:07 PM
From Mr. James Spann down at ABC 33/40 in Birmingham….
(edited for length)
*Much of the nation will be flooded with very cold air in the next two weeks (in some cases, the coldest air in one or two decades)
*”Most of the snow from this system will come Wednesday night and Thursday morning along and north of U.S. 72, especially north of the Tennessee border. The I-40 corridor could see several inches of snow, including Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, and Asheville.”
“As always, this could, and probably will change during the next 24 to 36 hours… stay tuned.”
http://www.alabamawx.com
~hold on to your hats, it’s SHOWTIME!
Posted by: Mike from Cookeville at January 29, 2007 05:08 PM
Also, if the system is moving to our south, why does Hopkinsville Ky have a greater chance of precip than we do here? They have 70% Wed night and 80% Thursday.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:09 PM
pretty much if you live in any outside suburb of nashville, you will be at least 200-300 feet higher. but gabe, i totally agree with you on the whole elevation thing. at first, i didn’t think a difference of 600-700 feet would make much of a difference. but last february when most areas in nashville were getting rain, due to that infamous “wave of warmer area” riding up I-65, where i was living at the time south and east of town (elevation: 936 ft) had two inches on the ground. anyway, like i said earlier, i’m not making any bets or plans until the 24 hour marker (tomorrow night)…if everything starts headin’ in our favor, i’ll be racing to nashville from mobile wednesday afternoon. i’ll tell the people at my church here in mobile to pray that the low heads towards them and not towards birmingham! lol!
Posted by: Cameron Fry at January 29, 2007 05:09 PM
Read the special weather statement. It says the snow will gradually change over to a mix or just rain on Thursday. The models have been trending to this too.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 05:14 PM
Yeah….i remember that storm. Here in hohenwald we got 3 inches….while columbia(just 30 miles east) with an elevation about 500 feet lower got rain. Funny thing is our local METS don’t forecast it that way….they just lump southern middle tennessee all together. But 950-1000 feet makes a difference
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:15 PM
Hey alex…those guys also said yesterday it would not negoin until friday night….so sorry if i dont trust that info too much. Also i was reading another forecast where it says most snow will be between nashville and highway 72 around huntsville alabama…everybody has different forecasts right now.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:22 PM
Rob I know all that about the GFS and the warm winds. I’m just analyzing the 18z model run. I know that 18z is the least accurate but also think that it will be hard to get too much snow in southern counties.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 05:28 PM
Ok…ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE. EVerything is up in the air right now…. I have an opinion right now but it could change,a more definitive forecast will come by tomorrows models.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:28 PM
once again….don’t lump all south counties together…some of us are over 1,000 feet in elevation
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:29 PM
Yes yall got to remeber they were not forecasting anything big yesterday but now look whats in the mix. Weather changes in a blink of an eye. They cant pinpoint were a tornado is going to hit so what makes you think they can pinpoint were snow is going to hit. We just got to watch and see damit!!!!! All hale satan lord of darkness!!!! Hes in control
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:32 PM
What elevation is Hermitage/Mt. Juliet area?
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:33 PM
Not even Satin is that ignorant. perhaps you need to get a life. Maybe you should find another outlet for your jealousy. Afterall, hatred is a by product of jealousy.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:43 PM
Ok, so it’s looking like we are going to get some kind of winter precip., finally! Of course it will be along the I-40 line to the north, always is!! I think Rutherford, Williamson, and Davidson county have this anti-snow bubble around them every winter. It always seems to snow above, below, and beside these three counties, but never in these counties. I’ve been doing my snow dance, and I’ve got my fingers crossed this time we get something!!! LET IT SNOW
Posted by: Meghan at January 29, 2007 05:43 PM
What does the Farmer’s Almanac say for this week?
Posted by: Lucas at January 29, 2007 05:45 PM
mine says flurries.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 05:46 PM
Whoever posted in my name earlier….remember, immitation is the most sincere from of flattery…..thanks!
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:51 PM
Heath…Mt. Juliet is close to 600 feet. wheras nashvile is around 450.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:54 PM
For the Channel 2 Mets:
What weather event occurred on January 28, 1951? I read an article about falling temps and a memorable weather event but that was all that was mentioned. Was it an ice storm that hit Middle Tennessee on that date? Thanks
Posted by: WeatherGeek at January 29, 2007 05:55 PM
Meghan, I can remember 3 winters ago when i lived in Antioch, it did snow a complete circle around my house. My ground did not get covered a single time that winter. But the rest of Middle Tennessee got snow at some point.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:56 PM
The Great Ice Storm of 1951. Now go and google it.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 05:57 PM
My updated Snow analysis at MTEC is hot of the press, if anybody wants to check it out
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 06:03 PM
MTWC, I mean.
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 06:04 PM
Posted by: Anonymous at January 30, 2007 02:04 AM
Coldest Morning This Winter | Main | Re-enforcing Cold Front Moving In on Tuesday Morning…& The Latest On The “Wintery” Situation Later This Week »
January 29, 2007
Model Flip-Flops
Most of the computer models we use to create a forecast are run four times per day. In this difficult weather pattern, the same model might yield four different solution in 24 short hours! The models have oscillated from a cold to warm solution between this morning and midday. Disappointing for snow lovers, but hope is not lost. It’s important not to get caught up in the run-to-run details and keep your eye on the big picture.
Below is tomorrow’s predicted upper air pattern. Two things to point out: a big disturbance diving through the Midwest will bring cold northwest winds and reinforce the chill tomorrow. We might even squeeze out a few flurries. The second, more important feature is off the Southern California coast in the image below. That upper air disturbance will swing east and cause a surface low to develop late Wednesday through Thursday. The low pressure will pass south of Tennessee but the exact track remains uncertain. The particular path of that surface low will determine what type of precipitation we get on Thursday.
The late morning model runs suggest that the surface low pressure will move from Houston to Birmingham. That’s farther north (and warmer) than the early morning models had predicted. Again, it’s important to not get caught up in the run-to-run details of the computer models. The upper air disturbance that will kick start our mid-week system is roughly 2,000 miles away! I think we’ll see more model flip-flopping in the next few days…so stay tuned to the blog and our television forecasts for the latest thinking.
Posted by Justin at January 29, 2007 11:28 AM
Comments
Time for the snow dance!!!!
Thanks for the info Justin. Please keep us snow lover’s update! Im crossing my fingers!
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 11:36 AM
We’ll just have to be patient and wait/see what happens!
There is a good snow coming for this winter, it’s just a question of when.
Posted by: Mike from Cookeville at January 29, 2007 11:38 AM
Guess it means no snow, huh
Posted by: Vicki at January 29, 2007 11:38 AM
Come on snowflakes!!! We need the snow to close schools in Rutherford County so our sick kids will have time to get well without missing class time. And a little snow play won’t hurt either!!
Posted by: Meghan at January 29, 2007 11:38 AM
Amen Meghan, Although my 9 year old has had the crud twice since Xmas vacation, I think a big snow day would be just what the doctor ordered. Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow!!!!!
Posted by: Pats at January 29, 2007 12:01 PM
My family is coming up to Gatlinburg this week…heading up tomorrow…is there a good chance we will see some snow?
Posted by: Brandi at January 29, 2007 12:03 PM
like i said i guess we live to close to hell and it does not snow in hell..
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 12:17 PM
That’s a cool weather model, man…if I stare at it, the swirls start to move…grooovy…
Posted by: Ginger at January 29, 2007 12:18 PM
ARRGGG!!
The dreaded northward trend with WAA. Man, I sure thought with all this cold air coming in that would be the last thing to happen with this storm.
Posted by: wdbeas at January 29, 2007 12:21 PM
Nice work guys, in reviewing weather.com, they have dropped there temp now to the low 40’s and calling for Rain then Snow, if you are fortunate enough to live in Clarksville they are calling for all snow with flurries tonight and tomorrow in that area
Posted by: weatherdawg at January 29, 2007 12:22 PM
It’s a real pisser living in Tennessee. Couple hundred miles further north and we would always be snow. A couple hundred miles south and it would always be rain. Our geographic location causes hell for all…lol
Posted by: Anon at January 29, 2007 12:29 PM
is dickson county school is closed tomorrow because of the flu.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 01:01 PM
Justin, we need snow this week and lots of it. Help!
Posted by: Vicki at January 29, 2007 01:40 PM
Right Now the Gfs is not the model to watch. I think the Euro has alot better handle on the situation. The track is going to play a big role in what type of precip comes down as wkrn has said. The latest 12Z Euro is out and Im looking at the Gempack Images right now. Right now the HPC puts this area in a Slight risk of 4″> of snow. So before we start hearing all this Its never gona snow and ” They ” can nevere get the forcast right. Its still too early to figure out details but the threat of a winter event is the greastest its been this year. So lets sit back and see how things pan out for a day. You can ride the up and down rollercoaster of models. You go with trends and agreement.
Posted by: Rpb at January 29, 2007 02:01 PM
I would like to go back and comment on the gfs.The Gfs could pan out correct no dout, but some other Met and I agree that the Euro is better to watch.
Posted by: Rob at January 29, 2007 02:08 PM
The GFS has been crappy the past few weeks anyways. I still say the low will go around montgomery and that would bring all snow wed. night and if we can accumulate an inch the temps wont rise.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:22 PM
however, if the low does pass over B-ham we have NO chance at snow. We need it to be between mobile and montgomery alabama
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:29 PM
and oh BTW if this system does not bring snow i will be officaly ANGRY!….hehe
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:31 PM
00utc shows the low south of montgomery starting wed. night….YAY! Lets hope that comes true
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:35 PM
I will be angry too. I need to stay home Thursday.
I want a snow day so bad I can’t stand it!!!
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 02:37 PM
If this system does not bring a decent amount of snow, I will go to the Grand Canyon and jump.
BTW, just for giggles…do any of the long range forecast show any possibility for snow around the end of the weekend and next week?
Back to taking it one system at a time now. Why can’t we have at least one ‘flip-flop’ go OUR way?!?
Posted by: Verbatim at January 29, 2007 02:39 PM
It’s because the models *cough* GFS!!! *cough* doesn’t handle cold air well and always underestimates WAA up until 18 minutes and 21 seconds before the event starts.
Posted by: Kailyn Leto at January 29, 2007 02:43 PM
Grammar error…models DON’T…
Posted by: Kailyn Leto at January 29, 2007 02:44 PM
dickson county school is closed tomorrow because of the flu.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 02:46 PM
Nws nashvile updated forcast. Wed night Snow likely and Thursday Snow/Sleet with chances of snow thursday night and friday. Alot can change people but right now we are looking pretty good for a decent snowfall. Special weather statements should be out soon.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 02:46 PM
$20 bucks says if the low tracks south of Birmingham we get nothing. Come back and review my post mid day Thursday…Rain or nothing folks.
Posted by: Clarence at January 29, 2007 02:55 PM
Wrong….if low goes south of B-ham then we get snow
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:04 PM
it is true that dickson county school is closed tomorrow because of the flu and the water pipe.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 03:05 PM
It depends on how much moisture we get and how much mid-to-upper-lever WAA we get.
Little moisture + little WAA/U = snow
Little moisture + little WAA/S = snow
Little moisture + gaping WAA/U = sleet
Little moisture + gaping WAA/S = rain
Gaping moisture + little WAA/U = snow
Gaping moisture + little WAA/S = repeat of 3/1996
Gaping moisture + gaping WAA/U = freezing rain
Gaping moisture + gaping WAA/S = repeat of 03/2002
Posted by: Kailyn Leto at January 29, 2007 03:08 PM
Hey mets!!!
Please give us an update!!! People are going to start getting rude again if you don’t…
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:12 PM
My so called expertise is in Severe Weather, but I have seen this setup so many times in the past. If the low is south of the B’ham area it will have much less affect on our upper air environs and the precip will be hard pressed to make it in here regardless of temps. If it is in the B’ham area or above look for warmer gulf air to work its way into the upper atmosphere in middle TN, screwing our chances…
Posted by: Clarence at January 29, 2007 03:16 PM
So things are looking up it sounds??? Maybe???? Possibly???
:) 
Can’t someone start a forum for people in Dickson County and care about the schools there????
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 03:17 PM
“My so called expertise is in Severe Weather, but I have seen this setup so many times in the past. If the low is south of the B’ham area it will have much less affect on our upper air environs and the precip will be hard pressed to make it in here regardless of temps. If it is in the B’ham area or above look for warmer gulf air to work its way into the upper atmosphere in middle TN, screwing our chances…”
Sounds an awfully lot like a lose-lose situation there…why would the mets and nws even bother putting snow in the forecast?
Posted by: Verbatim at January 29, 2007 03:21 PM
I ask myself that same question every winter…lol
Posted by: Clarence at January 29, 2007 03:23 PM
Ok this Wendesday night and Thursaday will start out as snow Wed/night and then mix Thursday before ending as another light snow Thursady night. Then Sunday looks very impressive with possibly an all snow event, with 1-5 inches possible.
Then looking at all long range models it appears the cold air will be locked in with up to 5 snow chances in the next 2 weeks. Winter is Back!!!!!!!
Posted by: JustSOYouKnow at January 29, 2007 03:24 PM
well at least the ground temperatures will be in our favor considering most locals were in single digits this morning…and we should be in the lower teens tuesday night-wednesday am as it stands now so that’s one thing in our favor. it seems to me if the storm is as strong as is described, the only element that is in question is the position of the gulf low obviously. not like it really matters but at least newschannel5 has lowered their temps and increased precip %…and NOAA is giving us a 60% chance of snow/sleet wednesday night. not like it means anything…
Posted by: Cameron Fry at January 29, 2007 03:29 PM
So what you are saying then is rain or nothing right?
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 03:34 PM
JustSO: anything that is forecast beyond 5days I never listen to. EVEN though the GFS shows an IMPRESSIVE system sunday-monday i will believe it when i see it
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:36 PM
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
335 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007
TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-301015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…DOVER…CLARKSVILLE…SPRINGFIELD…
GALLATIN…LAFAYETTE…CELINA…BYRDSTOWN…CAMDEN…ERIN…
WAVERLY…DICKSON…ASHLAND CITY…KINGSTON SPRINGS…NASHVILLE…
LEBANON…MOUNT JULIET…HARTSVILLE…CARTHAGE…GAINESBORO…
COOKEVILLE…LIVINGSTON…JAMESTOWN…ALLARDT…LINDEN…
LOBELVILLE…CENTERVILLE…HOHENWALD…FRANKLIN…BRENTWOOD…
COLUMBIA…LEWISBURG…MURFREESBORO…WOODBURY…SMITHVILLE…
SPARTA…CROSSVILLE…FAIRFIELD GLADE…SHELBYVILLE…TULLAHOMA…
MANCHESTER…MCMINNVILLE…TRACY CITY…ALTAMONT…COALMONT…
SPENCER…WAYNESBORO…LAWRENCEBURG…PULASKI
335 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007
…SNOW AND SLEET MAY DEVELOP IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY…
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THIS WEEK. A WEAK
STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST…CAUSING MOISTURE
TO SPREAD ACROSS TENNESSEE AND SURROUNDING AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SNOW AND SLEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN ON THURSDAY.
EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME…BUT EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME AREAS COULD HAVE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL…ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
SNOW AND ICE COULD MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY…SO PEOPLE SHOULD MONITOR
UPDATED FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTER
WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE REGION.
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:38 PM
blah blah blah….they same the same I-40 crap every time. Ther eare many spots below I-40 that are over 1,000 feet above sea level which effects the precip type.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:39 PM
I never said that this was intelligent, just thought I would post this.
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:40 PM
also if it starts as snow wed. and we get 1-2 inches the temps WILL NOT rise much at all thursday….so that statement is not completely accurate to me.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:42 PM
Wednesday
Mostly Sunny
Mostly
Sunny
Hi 35°F Wednesday
Night
Snow Likely. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%
Snow
Likely
Lo 25°F Thursday
Snow/Sleet. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%
Snow/Sleet
Hi 36°F Thursday
Night
Chance Snow. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Snow
Lo 30°F Friday
Chance Snow. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Snow
This is posted on NOAA website.
Posted by: Pats at January 29, 2007 03:52 PM
Sorry Jamie….didn’t mean to blast you at all….just the NWS screwing up again with their logic…
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:53 PM
Gabe,
We will have no problem as long as you spell my name right
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:56 PM
lol sorry….Jaime…is that pronouced (Jay-meeh) thats a different way to spell it. I know somebody named Mercy but its spelled mercie…kinda cool
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:02 PM
So this is sounding good!!!!!!!!! Yahhhhooooo!!!!
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 04:06 PM
18utc GFS and NAM are starting to come out and it shows a more northerly track to the low. Yes, I regret to say it but the 0C line has gone with it. does not mean that all hope is gone though. 18utc is often overridden substantially by the 00utc run. However, I think that the chance for counties on the border of Alabama will depend A LOT on the track of the low and even minor atmospheric changes. But if low takes a considerably more southerly track could see quite a bit of snow there. Right now think that counties on KY border (yes Gabe and those areas in higher elevations) stand a chance at a decent snow. we really need strong reinforcement of cold air and for the precip to not take its sweet time.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 04:20 PM
Matt I would not take the 18Gfs in account much. It does not have the upper air data that the 00UTC and the 12UTC runs do.Also when looking at the 2m temps this far out be very carefull making any calls. This line can swing north and south very easily. Even with snowcover Thursday could have too much WAA and cause a mix. Sounding charts should be used to look at this. As far as sunday and monday right now just look like snow showers. I dont see anything that is of concern yet.
Right now we are at a point where the forast is on the line. One can easily go ahead and make a call for wed night into thursday. I would wait till tomorrow to project snowfall amounts. Right now the Nws is calling areas getting 1-2″ of snow. This all depends on alot of things. This is when you wana watch the local stations to see how they handle a event. Its seems in my eyes wkrn is handling this well. I know no one wants to get everyone worked up over nothing but by tomorrow afternoon we will bavea a good idea of what happens wed night into thurs. Thanks
Posted by: Rob at January 29, 2007 04:32 PM
When they issue statements this early, we never get anything. We have just been cursed. What will probably happen is either 1) low will go too far south and we get nothing in Nashville, while northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee get 6 to 8 inchs or 2) it will go a little farther north and we get mostly rain. They will double curse us Wednesday by spreading or spraying ungodly amounts of salt on the raods.
I hope I am wrong because nobody wants snow more than me.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 04:37 PM
Lol Heath that will be good for me cause i live right on the boarder of Alabama.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 04:40 PM
Got to love that low of 88 on Monday morning haha. Nice type, or is it that old Nashville heat island.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 04:42 PM
I still think if we get an inch or 2 overnight wed. the temps will not rise.
Also is 1,000 feet in elevation a big difference from the 350 that nashville is at…..cause hohenwald where i live is 1,000+ in elevation
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:53 PM
People talk about cookville being elevated but…..hohenwald is just like 50 feet different
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:56 PM
NWS now saying snow with a little sleet….but mostly snow! Guess there is gonna be a little more cold air aloft….and their temps are coming down too
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:59 PM
Not to bust anyone’s bubble but most of all of the forecasters,including NWS, trend to the snow changing over to rain. As the system moves east and pulls in warmer air. If that is the case I hope it does not snow. Cause snow changing over to rain is worse thing ever. Watching the snow just get washed away in a big sloppy mess.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 05:04 PM
Now we really are jinxed.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:05 PM
Alex I just see snow mixed with sleet…not rain…maybe thats cause i live in hohenwald
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:07 PM
Hey Gabe. I live in Nashville, but on the Nashville Rim. Elevations around 1000 feet. Its quite a pretty view on top of the hill.
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 05:07 PM
From Mr. James Spann down at ABC 33/40 in Birmingham….
(edited for length)
*Much of the nation will be flooded with very cold air in the next two weeks (in some cases, the coldest air in one or two decades)
*”Most of the snow from this system will come Wednesday night and Thursday morning along and north of U.S. 72, especially north of the Tennessee border. The I-40 corridor could see several inches of snow, including Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, and Asheville.”
“As always, this could, and probably will change during the next 24 to 36 hours… stay tuned.”
http://www.alabamawx.com
~hold on to your hats, it’s SHOWTIME!
Posted by: Mike from Cookeville at January 29, 2007 05:08 PM
Also, if the system is moving to our south, why does Hopkinsville Ky have a greater chance of precip than we do here? They have 70% Wed night and 80% Thursday.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:09 PM
pretty much if you live in any outside suburb of nashville, you will be at least 200-300 feet higher. but gabe, i totally agree with you on the whole elevation thing. at first, i didn’t think a difference of 600-700 feet would make much of a difference. but last february when most areas in nashville were getting rain, due to that infamous “wave of warmer area” riding up I-65, where i was living at the time south and east of town (elevation: 936 ft) had two inches on the ground. anyway, like i said earlier, i’m not making any bets or plans until the 24 hour marker (tomorrow night)…if everything starts headin’ in our favor, i’ll be racing to nashville from mobile wednesday afternoon. i’ll tell the people at my church here in mobile to pray that the low heads towards them and not towards birmingham! lol!
Posted by: Cameron Fry at January 29, 2007 05:09 PM
Read the special weather statement. It says the snow will gradually change over to a mix or just rain on Thursday. The models have been trending to this too.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 05:14 PM
Yeah….i remember that storm. Here in hohenwald we got 3 inches….while columbia(just 30 miles east) with an elevation about 500 feet lower got rain. Funny thing is our local METS don’t forecast it that way….they just lump southern middle tennessee all together. But 950-1000 feet makes a difference
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:15 PM
Hey alex…those guys also said yesterday it would not negoin until friday night….so sorry if i dont trust that info too much. Also i was reading another forecast where it says most snow will be between nashville and highway 72 around huntsville alabama…everybody has different forecasts right now.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:22 PM
Rob I know all that about the GFS and the warm winds. I’m just analyzing the 18z model run. I know that 18z is the least accurate but also think that it will be hard to get too much snow in southern counties.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 05:28 PM
Ok…ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE. EVerything is up in the air right now…. I have an opinion right now but it could change,a more definitive forecast will come by tomorrows models.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:28 PM
once again….don’t lump all south counties together…some of us are over 1,000 feet in elevation
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:29 PM
Yes yall got to remeber they were not forecasting anything big yesterday but now look whats in the mix. Weather changes in a blink of an eye. They cant pinpoint were a tornado is going to hit so what makes you think they can pinpoint were snow is going to hit. We just got to watch and see damit!!!!! All hale satan lord of darkness!!!! Hes in control
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:32 PM
What elevation is Hermitage/Mt. Juliet area?
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:33 PM
Not even Satin is that ignorant. perhaps you need to get a life. Maybe you should find another outlet for your jealousy. Afterall, hatred is a by product of jealousy.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:43 PM
Ok, so it’s looking like we are going to get some kind of winter precip., finally! Of course it will be along the I-40 line to the north, always is!! I think Rutherford, Williamson, and Davidson county have this anti-snow bubble around them every winter. It always seems to snow above, below, and beside these three counties, but never in these counties. I’ve been doing my snow dance, and I’ve got my fingers crossed this time we get something!!! LET IT SNOW
Posted by: Meghan at January 29, 2007 05:43 PM
What does the Farmer’s Almanac say for this week?
Posted by: Lucas at January 29, 2007 05:45 PM
mine says flurries.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 05:46 PM
Whoever posted in my name earlier….remember, immitation is the most sincere from of flattery…..thanks!
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:51 PM
Heath…Mt. Juliet is close to 600 feet. wheras nashvile is around 450.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:54 PM
For the Channel 2 Mets:
What weather event occurred on January 28, 1951? I read an article about falling temps and a memorable weather event but that was all that was mentioned. Was it an ice storm that hit Middle Tennessee on that date? Thanks
Posted by: WeatherGeek at January 29, 2007 05:55 PM
Meghan, I can remember 3 winters ago when i lived in Antioch, it did snow a complete circle around my house. My ground did not get covered a single time that winter. But the rest of Middle Tennessee got snow at some point.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:56 PM
The Great Ice Storm of 1951. Now go and google it.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 05:57 PM
My updated Snow analysis at MTEC is hot of the press, if anybody wants to check it out
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 06:03 PM
MTWC, I mean.
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 06:04 PM
Posted by: Anonymous at January 30, 2007 02:04 AM
Post a comment
Please give us an update!!! People are going to start getting rude again if you don’t…
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:12 PM
My so called expertise is in Severe Weather, but I have seen this setup so many times in the past. If the low is south of the B’ham area it will have much less affect on our upper air environs and the precip will be hard pressed to make it in here regardless of temps. If it is in the B’ham area or above look for warmer gulf air to work its way into the upper atmosphere in middle TN, screwing our chances…
Posted by: Clarence at January 29, 2007 03:16 PM
So things are looking up it sounds??? Maybe???? Possibly???
:) 
Can’t someone start a forum for people in Dickson County and care about the schools there????
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 03:17 PM
“My so called expertise is in Severe Weather, but I have seen this setup so many times in the past. If the low is south of the B’ham area it will have much less affect on our upper air environs and the precip will be hard pressed to make it in here regardless of temps. If it is in the B’ham area or above look for warmer gulf air to work its way into the upper atmosphere in middle TN, screwing our chances…”
Sounds an awfully lot like a lose-lose situation there…why would the mets and nws even bother putting snow in the forecast?
Posted by: Verbatim at January 29, 2007 03:21 PM
I ask myself that same question every winter…lol
Posted by: Clarence at January 29, 2007 03:23 PM
Ok this Wendesday night and Thursaday will start out as snow Wed/night and then mix Thursday before ending as another light snow Thursady night. Then Sunday looks very impressive with possibly an all snow event, with 1-5 inches possible.
Then looking at all long range models it appears the cold air will be locked in with up to 5 snow chances in the next 2 weeks. Winter is Back!!!!!!!
Posted by: JustSOYouKnow at January 29, 2007 03:24 PM
well at least the ground temperatures will be in our favor considering most locals were in single digits this morning…and we should be in the lower teens tuesday night-wednesday am as it stands now so that’s one thing in our favor. it seems to me if the storm is as strong as is described, the only element that is in question is the position of the gulf low obviously. not like it really matters but at least newschannel5 has lowered their temps and increased precip %…and NOAA is giving us a 60% chance of snow/sleet wednesday night. not like it means anything…
Posted by: Cameron Fry at January 29, 2007 03:29 PM
So what you are saying then is rain or nothing right?
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 03:34 PM
JustSO: anything that is forecast beyond 5days I never listen to. EVEN though the GFS shows an IMPRESSIVE system sunday-monday i will believe it when i see it
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:36 PM
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
335 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007
TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-301015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…DOVER…CLARKSVILLE…SPRINGFIELD…
GALLATIN…LAFAYETTE…CELINA…BYRDSTOWN…CAMDEN…ERIN…
WAVERLY…DICKSON…ASHLAND CITY…KINGSTON SPRINGS…NASHVILLE…
LEBANON…MOUNT JULIET…HARTSVILLE…CARTHAGE…GAINESBORO…
COOKEVILLE…LIVINGSTON…JAMESTOWN…ALLARDT…LINDEN…
LOBELVILLE…CENTERVILLE…HOHENWALD…FRANKLIN…BRENTWOOD…
COLUMBIA…LEWISBURG…MURFREESBORO…WOODBURY…SMITHVILLE…
SPARTA…CROSSVILLE…FAIRFIELD GLADE…SHELBYVILLE…TULLAHOMA…
MANCHESTER…MCMINNVILLE…TRACY CITY…ALTAMONT…COALMONT…
SPENCER…WAYNESBORO…LAWRENCEBURG…PULASKI
335 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007
…SNOW AND SLEET MAY DEVELOP IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY…
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THIS WEEK. A WEAK
STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST…CAUSING MOISTURE
TO SPREAD ACROSS TENNESSEE AND SURROUNDING AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SNOW AND SLEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN ON THURSDAY.
EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME…BUT EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME AREAS COULD HAVE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL…ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
SNOW AND ICE COULD MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY…SO PEOPLE SHOULD MONITOR
UPDATED FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTER
WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE REGION.
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:38 PM
blah blah blah….they same the same I-40 crap every time. Ther eare many spots below I-40 that are over 1,000 feet above sea level which effects the precip type.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:39 PM
I never said that this was intelligent, just thought I would post this.
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:40 PM
also if it starts as snow wed. and we get 1-2 inches the temps WILL NOT rise much at all thursday….so that statement is not completely accurate to me.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:42 PM
Wednesday
Mostly Sunny
Mostly
Sunny
Hi 35°F Wednesday
Night
Snow Likely. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%
Snow
Likely
Lo 25°F Thursday
Snow/Sleet. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%
Snow/Sleet
Hi 36°F Thursday
Night
Chance Snow. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Snow
Lo 30°F Friday
Chance Snow. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Snow
This is posted on NOAA website.
Posted by: Pats at January 29, 2007 03:52 PM
Sorry Jamie….didn’t mean to blast you at all….just the NWS screwing up again with their logic…
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:53 PM
Gabe,
We will have no problem as long as you spell my name right
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:56 PM
lol sorry….Jaime…is that pronouced (Jay-meeh) thats a different way to spell it. I know somebody named Mercy but its spelled mercie…kinda cool
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:02 PM
So this is sounding good!!!!!!!!! Yahhhhooooo!!!!
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 04:06 PM
18utc GFS and NAM are starting to come out and it shows a more northerly track to the low. Yes, I regret to say it but the 0C line has gone with it. does not mean that all hope is gone though. 18utc is often overridden substantially by the 00utc run. However, I think that the chance for counties on the border of Alabama will depend A LOT on the track of the low and even minor atmospheric changes. But if low takes a considerably more southerly track could see quite a bit of snow there. Right now think that counties on KY border (yes Gabe and those areas in higher elevations) stand a chance at a decent snow. we really need strong reinforcement of cold air and for the precip to not take its sweet time.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 04:20 PM
Matt I would not take the 18Gfs in account much. It does not have the upper air data that the 00UTC and the 12UTC runs do.Also when looking at the 2m temps this far out be very carefull making any calls. This line can swing north and south very easily. Even with snowcover Thursday could have too much WAA and cause a mix. Sounding charts should be used to look at this. As far as sunday and monday right now just look like snow showers. I dont see anything that is of concern yet.
Right now we are at a point where the forast is on the line. One can easily go ahead and make a call for wed night into thursday. I would wait till tomorrow to project snowfall amounts. Right now the Nws is calling areas getting 1-2″ of snow. This all depends on alot of things. This is when you wana watch the local stations to see how they handle a event. Its seems in my eyes wkrn is handling this well. I know no one wants to get everyone worked up over nothing but by tomorrow afternoon we will bavea a good idea of what happens wed night into thurs. Thanks
Posted by: Rob at January 29, 2007 04:32 PM
When they issue statements this early, we never get anything. We have just been cursed. What will probably happen is either 1) low will go too far south and we get nothing in Nashville, while northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee get 6 to 8 inchs or 2) it will go a little farther north and we get mostly rain. They will double curse us Wednesday by spreading or spraying ungodly amounts of salt on the raods.
I hope I am wrong because nobody wants snow more than me.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 04:37 PM
Lol Heath that will be good for me cause i live right on the boarder of Alabama.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 04:40 PM
Got to love that low of 88 on Monday morning haha. Nice type, or is it that old Nashville heat island.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 04:42 PM
I still think if we get an inch or 2 overnight wed. the temps will not rise.
Also is 1,000 feet in elevation a big difference from the 350 that nashville is at…..cause hohenwald where i live is 1,000+ in elevation
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:53 PM
People talk about cookville being elevated but…..hohenwald is just like 50 feet different
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:56 PM
NWS now saying snow with a little sleet….but mostly snow! Guess there is gonna be a little more cold air aloft….and their temps are coming down too
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:59 PM
Not to bust anyone’s bubble but most of all of the forecasters,including NWS, trend to the snow changing over to rain. As the system moves east and pulls in warmer air. If that is the case I hope it does not snow. Cause snow changing over to rain is worse thing ever. Watching the snow just get washed away in a big sloppy mess.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 05:04 PM
Now we really are jinxed.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:05 PM
Alex I just see snow mixed with sleet…not rain…maybe thats cause i live in hohenwald
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:07 PM
Hey Gabe. I live in Nashville, but on the Nashville Rim. Elevations around 1000 feet. Its quite a pretty view on top of the hill.
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 05:07 PM
From Mr. James Spann down at ABC 33/40 in Birmingham….
(edited for length)
*Much of the nation will be flooded with very cold air in the next two weeks (in some cases, the coldest air in one or two decades)
*”Most of the snow from this system will come Wednesday night and Thursday morning along and north of U.S. 72, especially north of the Tennessee border. The I-40 corridor could see several inches of snow, including Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, and Asheville.”
“As always, this could, and probably will change during the next 24 to 36 hours… stay tuned.”
http://www.alabamawx.com
~hold on to your hats, it’s SHOWTIME!
Posted by: Mike from Cookeville at January 29, 2007 05:08 PM
Also, if the system is moving to our south, why does Hopkinsville Ky have a greater chance of precip than we do here? They have 70% Wed night and 80% Thursday.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:09 PM
pretty much if you live in any outside suburb of nashville, you will be at least 200-300 feet higher. but gabe, i totally agree with you on the whole elevation thing. at first, i didn’t think a difference of 600-700 feet would make much of a difference. but last february when most areas in nashville were getting rain, due to that infamous “wave of warmer area” riding up I-65, where i was living at the time south and east of town (elevation: 936 ft) had two inches on the ground. anyway, like i said earlier, i’m not making any bets or plans until the 24 hour marker (tomorrow night)…if everything starts headin’ in our favor, i’ll be racing to nashville from mobile wednesday afternoon. i’ll tell the people at my church here in mobile to pray that the low heads towards them and not towards birmingham! lol!
Posted by: Cameron Fry at January 29, 2007 05:09 PM
Read the special weather statement. It says the snow will gradually change over to a mix or just rain on Thursday. The models have been trending to this too.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 05:14 PM
Yeah….i remember that storm. Here in hohenwald we got 3 inches….while columbia(just 30 miles east) with an elevation about 500 feet lower got rain. Funny thing is our local METS don’t forecast it that way….they just lump southern middle tennessee all together. But 950-1000 feet makes a difference
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:15 PM
Hey alex…those guys also said yesterday it would not negoin until friday night….so sorry if i dont trust that info too much. Also i was reading another forecast where it says most snow will be between nashville and highway 72 around huntsville alabama…everybody has different forecasts right now.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:22 PM
Rob I know all that about the GFS and the warm winds. I’m just analyzing the 18z model run. I know that 18z is the least accurate but also think that it will be hard to get too much snow in southern counties.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 05:28 PM
Ok…ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE. EVerything is up in the air right now…. I have an opinion right now but it could change,a more definitive forecast will come by tomorrows models.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:28 PM
once again….don’t lump all south counties together…some of us are over 1,000 feet in elevation
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:29 PM
Yes yall got to remeber they were not forecasting anything big yesterday but now look whats in the mix. Weather changes in a blink of an eye. They cant pinpoint were a tornado is going to hit so what makes you think they can pinpoint were snow is going to hit. We just got to watch and see damit!!!!! All hale satan lord of darkness!!!! Hes in control
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:32 PM
What elevation is Hermitage/Mt. Juliet area?
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:33 PM
Not even Satin is that ignorant. perhaps you need to get a life. Maybe you should find another outlet for your jealousy. Afterall, hatred is a by product of jealousy.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:43 PM
Ok, so it’s looking like we are going to get some kind of winter precip., finally! Of course it will be along the I-40 line to the north, always is!! I think Rutherford, Williamson, and Davidson county have this anti-snow bubble around them every winter. It always seems to snow above, below, and beside these three counties, but never in these counties. I’ve been doing my snow dance, and I’ve got my fingers crossed this time we get something!!! LET IT SNOW
Posted by: Meghan at January 29, 2007 05:43 PM
What does the Farmer’s Almanac say for this week?
Posted by: Lucas at January 29, 2007 05:45 PM
mine says flurries.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 05:46 PM
Whoever posted in my name earlier….remember, immitation is the most sincere from of flattery…..thanks!
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:51 PM
Heath…Mt. Juliet is close to 600 feet. wheras nashvile is around 450.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:54 PM
For the Channel 2 Mets:
What weather event occurred on January 28, 1951? I read an article about falling temps and a memorable weather event but that was all that was mentioned. Was it an ice storm that hit Middle Tennessee on that date? Thanks
Posted by: WeatherGeek at January 29, 2007 05:55 PM
Meghan, I can remember 3 winters ago when i lived in Antioch, it did snow a complete circle around my house. My ground did not get covered a single time that winter. But the rest of Middle Tennessee got snow at some point.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:56 PM
The Great Ice Storm of 1951. Now go and google it.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 05:57 PM
My updated Snow analysis at MTEC is hot of the press, if anybody wants to check it out
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 06:03 PM
MTWC, I mean.
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 06:04 PM
Posted by: Anonymous at January 30, 2007 02:04 AM
Coldest Morning This Winter | Main | Re-enforcing Cold Front Moving In on Tuesday Morning…& The Latest On The “Wintery” Situation Later This Week »
January 29, 2007
Model Flip-Flops
Most of the computer models we use to create a forecast are run four times per day. In this difficult weather pattern, the same model might yield four different solution in 24 short hours! The models have oscillated from a cold to warm solution between this morning and midday. Disappointing for snow lovers, but hope is not lost. It’s important not to get caught up in the run-to-run details and keep your eye on the big picture.
Below is tomorrow’s predicted upper air pattern. Two things to point out: a big disturbance diving through the Midwest will bring cold northwest winds and reinforce the chill tomorrow. We might even squeeze out a few flurries. The second, more important feature is off the Southern California coast in the image below. That upper air disturbance will swing east and cause a surface low to develop late Wednesday through Thursday. The low pressure will pass south of Tennessee but the exact track remains uncertain. The particular path of that surface low will determine what type of precipitation we get on Thursday.
The late morning model runs suggest that the surface low pressure will move from Houston to Birmingham. That’s farther north (and warmer) than the early morning models had predicted. Again, it’s important to not get caught up in the run-to-run details of the computer models. The upper air disturbance that will kick start our mid-week system is roughly 2,000 miles away! I think we’ll see more model flip-flopping in the next few days…so stay tuned to the blog and our television forecasts for the latest thinking.
Posted by Justin at January 29, 2007 11:28 AM
Comments
Time for the snow dance!!!!
Thanks for the info Justin. Please keep us snow lover’s update! Im crossing my fingers!
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 11:36 AM
We’ll just have to be patient and wait/see what happens!
There is a good snow coming for this winter, it’s just a question of when.
Posted by: Mike from Cookeville at January 29, 2007 11:38 AM
Guess it means no snow, huh
Posted by: Vicki at January 29, 2007 11:38 AM
Come on snowflakes!!! We need the snow to close schools in Rutherford County so our sick kids will have time to get well without missing class time. And a little snow play won’t hurt either!!
Posted by: Meghan at January 29, 2007 11:38 AM
Amen Meghan, Although my 9 year old has had the crud twice since Xmas vacation, I think a big snow day would be just what the doctor ordered. Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow!!!!!
Posted by: Pats at January 29, 2007 12:01 PM
My family is coming up to Gatlinburg this week…heading up tomorrow…is there a good chance we will see some snow?
Posted by: Brandi at January 29, 2007 12:03 PM
like i said i guess we live to close to hell and it does not snow in hell..
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 12:17 PM
That’s a cool weather model, man…if I stare at it, the swirls start to move…grooovy…
Posted by: Ginger at January 29, 2007 12:18 PM
ARRGGG!!
The dreaded northward trend with WAA. Man, I sure thought with all this cold air coming in that would be the last thing to happen with this storm.
Posted by: wdbeas at January 29, 2007 12:21 PM
Nice work guys, in reviewing weather.com, they have dropped there temp now to the low 40’s and calling for Rain then Snow, if you are fortunate enough to live in Clarksville they are calling for all snow with flurries tonight and tomorrow in that area
Posted by: weatherdawg at January 29, 2007 12:22 PM
It’s a real pisser living in Tennessee. Couple hundred miles further north and we would always be snow. A couple hundred miles south and it would always be rain. Our geographic location causes hell for all…lol
Posted by: Anon at January 29, 2007 12:29 PM
is dickson county school is closed tomorrow because of the flu.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 01:01 PM
Justin, we need snow this week and lots of it. Help!
Posted by: Vicki at January 29, 2007 01:40 PM
Right Now the Gfs is not the model to watch. I think the Euro has alot better handle on the situation. The track is going to play a big role in what type of precip comes down as wkrn has said. The latest 12Z Euro is out and Im looking at the Gempack Images right now. Right now the HPC puts this area in a Slight risk of 4″> of snow. So before we start hearing all this Its never gona snow and ” They ” can nevere get the forcast right. Its still too early to figure out details but the threat of a winter event is the greastest its been this year. So lets sit back and see how things pan out for a day. You can ride the up and down rollercoaster of models. You go with trends and agreement.
Posted by: Rpb at January 29, 2007 02:01 PM
I would like to go back and comment on the gfs.The Gfs could pan out correct no dout, but some other Met and I agree that the Euro is better to watch.
Posted by: Rob at January 29, 2007 02:08 PM
The GFS has been crappy the past few weeks anyways. I still say the low will go around montgomery and that would bring all snow wed. night and if we can accumulate an inch the temps wont rise.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:22 PM
however, if the low does pass over B-ham we have NO chance at snow. We need it to be between mobile and montgomery alabama
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:29 PM
and oh BTW if this system does not bring snow i will be officaly ANGRY!….hehe
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:31 PM
00utc shows the low south of montgomery starting wed. night….YAY! Lets hope that comes true
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:35 PM
I will be angry too. I need to stay home Thursday.
I want a snow day so bad I can’t stand it!!!
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 02:37 PM
If this system does not bring a decent amount of snow, I will go to the Grand Canyon and jump.
BTW, just for giggles…do any of the long range forecast show any possibility for snow around the end of the weekend and next week?
Back to taking it one system at a time now. Why can’t we have at least one ‘flip-flop’ go OUR way?!?
Posted by: Verbatim at January 29, 2007 02:39 PM
It’s because the models *cough* GFS!!! *cough* doesn’t handle cold air well and always underestimates WAA up until 18 minutes and 21 seconds before the event starts.
Posted by: Kailyn Leto at January 29, 2007 02:43 PM
Grammar error…models DON’T…
Posted by: Kailyn Leto at January 29, 2007 02:44 PM
dickson county school is closed tomorrow because of the flu.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 02:46 PM
Nws nashvile updated forcast. Wed night Snow likely and Thursday Snow/Sleet with chances of snow thursday night and friday. Alot can change people but right now we are looking pretty good for a decent snowfall. Special weather statements should be out soon.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 02:46 PM
$20 bucks says if the low tracks south of Birmingham we get nothing. Come back and review my post mid day Thursday…Rain or nothing folks.
Posted by: Clarence at January 29, 2007 02:55 PM
Wrong….if low goes south of B-ham then we get snow
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:04 PM
it is true that dickson county school is closed tomorrow because of the flu and the water pipe.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 03:05 PM
It depends on how much moisture we get and how much mid-to-upper-lever WAA we get.
Little moisture + little WAA/U = snow
Little moisture + little WAA/S = snow
Little moisture + gaping WAA/U = sleet
Little moisture + gaping WAA/S = rain
Gaping moisture + little WAA/U = snow
Gaping moisture + little WAA/S = repeat of 3/1996
Gaping moisture + gaping WAA/U = freezing rain
Gaping moisture + gaping WAA/S = repeat of 03/2002
Posted by: Kailyn Leto at January 29, 2007 03:08 PM
Hey mets!!!
Please give us an update!!! People are going to start getting rude again if you don’t…
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:12 PM
My so called expertise is in Severe Weather, but I have seen this setup so many times in the past. If the low is south of the B’ham area it will have much less affect on our upper air environs and the precip will be hard pressed to make it in here regardless of temps. If it is in the B’ham area or above look for warmer gulf air to work its way into the upper atmosphere in middle TN, screwing our chances…
Posted by: Clarence at January 29, 2007 03:16 PM
So things are looking up it sounds??? Maybe???? Possibly???
:) 
Can’t someone start a forum for people in Dickson County and care about the schools there????
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 03:17 PM
“My so called expertise is in Severe Weather, but I have seen this setup so many times in the past. If the low is south of the B’ham area it will have much less affect on our upper air environs and the precip will be hard pressed to make it in here regardless of temps. If it is in the B’ham area or above look for warmer gulf air to work its way into the upper atmosphere in middle TN, screwing our chances…”
Sounds an awfully lot like a lose-lose situation there…why would the mets and nws even bother putting snow in the forecast?
Posted by: Verbatim at January 29, 2007 03:21 PM
I ask myself that same question every winter…lol
Posted by: Clarence at January 29, 2007 03:23 PM
Ok this Wendesday night and Thursaday will start out as snow Wed/night and then mix Thursday before ending as another light snow Thursady night. Then Sunday looks very impressive with possibly an all snow event, with 1-5 inches possible.
Then looking at all long range models it appears the cold air will be locked in with up to 5 snow chances in the next 2 weeks. Winter is Back!!!!!!!
Posted by: JustSOYouKnow at January 29, 2007 03:24 PM
well at least the ground temperatures will be in our favor considering most locals were in single digits this morning…and we should be in the lower teens tuesday night-wednesday am as it stands now so that’s one thing in our favor. it seems to me if the storm is as strong as is described, the only element that is in question is the position of the gulf low obviously. not like it really matters but at least newschannel5 has lowered their temps and increased precip %…and NOAA is giving us a 60% chance of snow/sleet wednesday night. not like it means anything…
Posted by: Cameron Fry at January 29, 2007 03:29 PM
So what you are saying then is rain or nothing right?
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 03:34 PM
JustSO: anything that is forecast beyond 5days I never listen to. EVEN though the GFS shows an IMPRESSIVE system sunday-monday i will believe it when i see it
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:36 PM
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
335 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007
TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-301015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…DOVER…CLARKSVILLE…SPRINGFIELD…
GALLATIN…LAFAYETTE…CELINA…BYRDSTOWN…CAMDEN…ERIN…
WAVERLY…DICKSON…ASHLAND CITY…KINGSTON SPRINGS…NASHVILLE…
LEBANON…MOUNT JULIET…HARTSVILLE…CARTHAGE…GAINESBORO…
COOKEVILLE…LIVINGSTON…JAMESTOWN…ALLARDT…LINDEN…
LOBELVILLE…CENTERVILLE…HOHENWALD…FRANKLIN…BRENTWOOD…
COLUMBIA…LEWISBURG…MURFREESBORO…WOODBURY…SMITHVILLE…
SPARTA…CROSSVILLE…FAIRFIELD GLADE…SHELBYVILLE…TULLAHOMA…
MANCHESTER…MCMINNVILLE…TRACY CITY…ALTAMONT…COALMONT…
SPENCER…WAYNESBORO…LAWRENCEBURG…PULASKI
335 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007
…SNOW AND SLEET MAY DEVELOP IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY…
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THIS WEEK. A WEAK
STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST…CAUSING MOISTURE
TO SPREAD ACROSS TENNESSEE AND SURROUNDING AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SNOW AND SLEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN ON THURSDAY.
EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME…BUT EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME AREAS COULD HAVE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL…ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
SNOW AND ICE COULD MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY…SO PEOPLE SHOULD MONITOR
UPDATED FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTER
WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE REGION.
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:38 PM
blah blah blah….they same the same I-40 crap every time. Ther eare many spots below I-40 that are over 1,000 feet above sea level which effects the precip type.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:39 PM
I never said that this was intelligent, just thought I would post this.
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:40 PM
also if it starts as snow wed. and we get 1-2 inches the temps WILL NOT rise much at all thursday….so that statement is not completely accurate to me.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:42 PM
Wednesday
Mostly Sunny
Mostly
Sunny
Hi 35°F Wednesday
Night
Snow Likely. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%
Snow
Likely
Lo 25°F Thursday
Snow/Sleet. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%
Snow/Sleet
Hi 36°F Thursday
Night
Chance Snow. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Snow
Lo 30°F Friday
Chance Snow. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Snow
This is posted on NOAA website.
Posted by: Pats at January 29, 2007 03:52 PM
Sorry Jamie….didn’t mean to blast you at all….just the NWS screwing up again with their logic…
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:53 PM
Gabe,
We will have no problem as long as you spell my name right
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:56 PM
lol sorry….Jaime…is that pronouced (Jay-meeh) thats a different way to spell it. I know somebody named Mercy but its spelled mercie…kinda cool
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:02 PM
So this is sounding good!!!!!!!!! Yahhhhooooo!!!!
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 04:06 PM
18utc GFS and NAM are starting to come out and it shows a more northerly track to the low. Yes, I regret to say it but the 0C line has gone with it. does not mean that all hope is gone though. 18utc is often overridden substantially by the 00utc run. However, I think that the chance for counties on the border of Alabama will depend A LOT on the track of the low and even minor atmospheric changes. But if low takes a considerably more southerly track could see quite a bit of snow there. Right now think that counties on KY border (yes Gabe and those areas in higher elevations) stand a chance at a decent snow. we really need strong reinforcement of cold air and for the precip to not take its sweet time.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 04:20 PM
Matt I would not take the 18Gfs in account much. It does not have the upper air data that the 00UTC and the 12UTC runs do.Also when looking at the 2m temps this far out be very carefull making any calls. This line can swing north and south very easily. Even with snowcover Thursday could have too much WAA and cause a mix. Sounding charts should be used to look at this. As far as sunday and monday right now just look like snow showers. I dont see anything that is of concern yet.
Right now we are at a point where the forast is on the line. One can easily go ahead and make a call for wed night into thursday. I would wait till tomorrow to project snowfall amounts. Right now the Nws is calling areas getting 1-2″ of snow. This all depends on alot of things. This is when you wana watch the local stations to see how they handle a event. Its seems in my eyes wkrn is handling this well. I know no one wants to get everyone worked up over nothing but by tomorrow afternoon we will bavea a good idea of what happens wed night into thurs. Thanks
Posted by: Rob at January 29, 2007 04:32 PM
When they issue statements this early, we never get anything. We have just been cursed. What will probably happen is either 1) low will go too far south and we get nothing in Nashville, while northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee get 6 to 8 inchs or 2) it will go a little farther north and we get mostly rain. They will double curse us Wednesday by spreading or spraying ungodly amounts of salt on the raods.
I hope I am wrong because nobody wants snow more than me.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 04:37 PM
Lol Heath that will be good for me cause i live right on the boarder of Alabama.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 04:40 PM
Got to love that low of 88 on Monday morning haha. Nice type, or is it that old Nashville heat island.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 04:42 PM
I still think if we get an inch or 2 overnight wed. the temps will not rise.
Also is 1,000 feet in elevation a big difference from the 350 that nashville is at…..cause hohenwald where i live is 1,000+ in elevation
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:53 PM
People talk about cookville being elevated but…..hohenwald is just like 50 feet different
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:56 PM
NWS now saying snow with a little sleet….but mostly snow! Guess there is gonna be a little more cold air aloft….and their temps are coming down too
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:59 PM
Not to bust anyone’s bubble but most of all of the forecasters,including NWS, trend to the snow changing over to rain. As the system moves east and pulls in warmer air. If that is the case I hope it does not snow. Cause snow changing over to rain is worse thing ever. Watching the snow just get washed away in a big sloppy mess.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 05:04 PM
Now we really are jinxed.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:05 PM
Alex I just see snow mixed with sleet…not rain…maybe thats cause i live in hohenwald
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:07 PM
Hey Gabe. I live in Nashville, but on the Nashville Rim. Elevations around 1000 feet. Its quite a pretty view on top of the hill.
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 05:07 PM
From Mr. James Spann down at ABC 33/40 in Birmingham….
(edited for length)
*Much of the nation will be flooded with very cold air in the next two weeks (in some cases, the coldest air in one or two decades)
*”Most of the snow from this system will come Wednesday night and Thursday morning along and north of U.S. 72, especially north of the Tennessee border. The I-40 corridor could see several inches of snow, including Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, and Asheville.”
“As always, this could, and probably will change during the next 24 to 36 hours… stay tuned.”
http://www.alabamawx.com
~hold on to your hats, it’s SHOWTIME!
Posted by: Mike from Cookeville at January 29, 2007 05:08 PM
Also, if the system is moving to our south, why does Hopkinsville Ky have a greater chance of precip than we do here? They have 70% Wed night and 80% Thursday.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:09 PM
pretty much if you live in any outside suburb of nashville, you will be at least 200-300 feet higher. but gabe, i totally agree with you on the whole elevation thing. at first, i didn’t think a difference of 600-700 feet would make much of a difference. but last february when most areas in nashville were getting rain, due to that infamous “wave of warmer area” riding up I-65, where i was living at the time south and east of town (elevation: 936 ft) had two inches on the ground. anyway, like i said earlier, i’m not making any bets or plans until the 24 hour marker (tomorrow night)…if everything starts headin’ in our favor, i’ll be racing to nashville from mobile wednesday afternoon. i’ll tell the people at my church here in mobile to pray that the low heads towards them and not towards birmingham! lol!
Posted by: Cameron Fry at January 29, 2007 05:09 PM
Read the special weather statement. It says the snow will gradually change over to a mix or just rain on Thursday. The models have been trending to this too.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 05:14 PM
Yeah….i remember that storm. Here in hohenwald we got 3 inches….while columbia(just 30 miles east) with an elevation about 500 feet lower got rain. Funny thing is our local METS don’t forecast it that way….they just lump southern middle tennessee all together. But 950-1000 feet makes a difference
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:15 PM
Hey alex…those guys also said yesterday it would not negoin until friday night….so sorry if i dont trust that info too much. Also i was reading another forecast where it says most snow will be between nashville and highway 72 around huntsville alabama…everybody has different forecasts right now.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:22 PM
Rob I know all that about the GFS and the warm winds. I’m just analyzing the 18z model run. I know that 18z is the least accurate but also think that it will be hard to get too much snow in southern counties.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 05:28 PM
Ok…ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE. EVerything is up in the air right now…. I have an opinion right now but it could change,a more definitive forecast will come by tomorrows models.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:28 PM
once again….don’t lump all south counties together…some of us are over 1,000 feet in elevation
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:29 PM
Yes yall got to remeber they were not forecasting anything big yesterday but now look whats in the mix. Weather changes in a blink of an eye. They cant pinpoint were a tornado is going to hit so what makes you think they can pinpoint were snow is going to hit. We just got to watch and see damit!!!!! All hale satan lord of darkness!!!! Hes in control
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:32 PM
What elevation is Hermitage/Mt. Juliet area?
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:33 PM
Not even Satin is that ignorant. perhaps you need to get a life. Maybe you should find another outlet for your jealousy. Afterall, hatred is a by product of jealousy.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:43 PM
Ok, so it’s looking like we are going to get some kind of winter precip., finally! Of course it will be along the I-40 line to the north, always is!! I think Rutherford, Williamson, and Davidson county have this anti-snow bubble around them every winter. It always seems to snow above, below, and beside these three counties, but never in these counties. I’ve been doing my snow dance, and I’ve got my fingers crossed this time we get something!!! LET IT SNOW
Posted by: Meghan at January 29, 2007 05:43 PM
What does the Farmer’s Almanac say for this week?
Posted by: Lucas at January 29, 2007 05:45 PM
mine says flurries.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 05:46 PM
Whoever posted in my name earlier….remember, immitation is the most sincere from of flattery…..thanks!
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:51 PM
Heath…Mt. Juliet is close to 600 feet. wheras nashvile is around 450.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:54 PM
For the Channel 2 Mets:
What weather event occurred on January 28, 1951? I read an article about falling temps and a memorable weather event but that was all that was mentioned. Was it an ice storm that hit Middle Tennessee on that date? Thanks
Posted by: WeatherGeek at January 29, 2007 05:55 PM
Meghan, I can remember 3 winters ago when i lived in Antioch, it did snow a complete circle around my house. My ground did not get covered a single time that winter. But the rest of Middle Tennessee got snow at some point.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:56 PM
The Great Ice Storm of 1951. Now go and google it.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 05:57 PM
My updated Snow analysis at MTEC is hot of the press, if anybody wants to check it out
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 06:03 PM
MTWC, I mean.
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 06:04 PM
Posted by: Anonymous at January 30, 2007 02:04 AM
Coldest Morning This Winter | Main | Re-enforcing Cold Front Moving In on Tuesday Morning…& The Latest On The “Wintery” Situation Later This Week »
January 29, 2007
Model Flip-Flops
Most of the computer models we use to create a forecast are run four times per day. In this difficult weather pattern, the same model might yield four different solution in 24 short hours! The models have oscillated from a cold to warm solution between this morning and midday. Disappointing for snow lovers, but hope is not lost. It’s important not to get caught up in the run-to-run details and keep your eye on the big picture.
Below is tomorrow’s predicted upper air pattern. Two things to point out: a big disturbance diving through the Midwest will bring cold northwest winds and reinforce the chill tomorrow. We might even squeeze out a few flurries. The second, more important feature is off the Southern California coast in the image below. That upper air disturbance will swing east and cause a surface low to develop late Wednesday through Thursday. The low pressure will pass south of Tennessee but the exact track remains uncertain. The particular path of that surface low will determine what type of precipitation we get on Thursday.
The late morning model runs suggest that the surface low pressure will move from Houston to Birmingham. That’s farther north (and warmer) than the early morning models had predicted. Again, it’s important to not get caught up in the run-to-run details of the computer models. The upper air disturbance that will kick start our mid-week system is roughly 2,000 miles away! I think we’ll see more model flip-flopping in the next few days…so stay tuned to the blog and our television forecasts for the latest thinking.
Posted by Justin at January 29, 2007 11:28 AM
Comments
Time for the snow dance!!!!
Thanks for the info Justin. Please keep us snow lover’s update! Im crossing my fingers!
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 11:36 AM
We’ll just have to be patient and wait/see what happens!
There is a good snow coming for this winter, it’s just a question of when.
Posted by: Mike from Cookeville at January 29, 2007 11:38 AM
Guess it means no snow, huh
Posted by: Vicki at January 29, 2007 11:38 AM
Come on snowflakes!!! We need the snow to close schools in Rutherford County so our sick kids will have time to get well without missing class time. And a little snow play won’t hurt either!!
Posted by: Meghan at January 29, 2007 11:38 AM
Amen Meghan, Although my 9 year old has had the crud twice since Xmas vacation, I think a big snow day would be just what the doctor ordered. Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow!!!!!
Posted by: Pats at January 29, 2007 12:01 PM
My family is coming up to Gatlinburg this week…heading up tomorrow…is there a good chance we will see some snow?
Posted by: Brandi at January 29, 2007 12:03 PM
like i said i guess we live to close to hell and it does not snow in hell..
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 12:17 PM
That’s a cool weather model, man…if I stare at it, the swirls start to move…grooovy…
Posted by: Ginger at January 29, 2007 12:18 PM
ARRGGG!!
The dreaded northward trend with WAA. Man, I sure thought with all this cold air coming in that would be the last thing to happen with this storm.
Posted by: wdbeas at January 29, 2007 12:21 PM
Nice work guys, in reviewing weather.com, they have dropped there temp now to the low 40’s and calling for Rain then Snow, if you are fortunate enough to live in Clarksville they are calling for all snow with flurries tonight and tomorrow in that area
Posted by: weatherdawg at January 29, 2007 12:22 PM
It’s a real pisser living in Tennessee. Couple hundred miles further north and we would always be snow. A couple hundred miles south and it would always be rain. Our geographic location causes hell for all…lol
Posted by: Anon at January 29, 2007 12:29 PM
is dickson county school is closed tomorrow because of the flu.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 01:01 PM
Justin, we need snow this week and lots of it. Help!
Posted by: Vicki at January 29, 2007 01:40 PM
Right Now the Gfs is not the model to watch. I think the Euro has alot better handle on the situation. The track is going to play a big role in what type of precip comes down as wkrn has said. The latest 12Z Euro is out and Im looking at the Gempack Images right now. Right now the HPC puts this area in a Slight risk of 4″> of snow. So before we start hearing all this Its never gona snow and ” They ” can nevere get the forcast right. Its still too early to figure out details but the threat of a winter event is the greastest its been this year. So lets sit back and see how things pan out for a day. You can ride the up and down rollercoaster of models. You go with trends and agreement.
Posted by: Rpb at January 29, 2007 02:01 PM
I would like to go back and comment on the gfs.The Gfs could pan out correct no dout, but some other Met and I agree that the Euro is better to watch.
Posted by: Rob at January 29, 2007 02:08 PM
The GFS has been crappy the past few weeks anyways. I still say the low will go around montgomery and that would bring all snow wed. night and if we can accumulate an inch the temps wont rise.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:22 PM
however, if the low does pass over B-ham we have NO chance at snow. We need it to be between mobile and montgomery alabama
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:29 PM
and oh BTW if this system does not bring snow i will be officaly ANGRY!….hehe
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:31 PM
00utc shows the low south of montgomery starting wed. night….YAY! Lets hope that comes true
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:35 PM
I will be angry too. I need to stay home Thursday.
I want a snow day so bad I can’t stand it!!!
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 02:37 PM
If this system does not bring a decent amount of snow, I will go to the Grand Canyon and jump.
BTW, just for giggles…do any of the long range forecast show any possibility for snow around the end of the weekend and next week?
Back to taking it one system at a time now. Why can’t we have at least one ‘flip-flop’ go OUR way?!?
Posted by: Verbatim at January 29, 2007 02:39 PM
It’s because the models *cough* GFS!!! *cough* doesn’t handle cold air well and always underestimates WAA up until 18 minutes and 21 seconds before the event starts.
Posted by: Kailyn Leto at January 29, 2007 02:43 PM
Grammar error…models DON’T…
Posted by: Kailyn Leto at January 29, 2007 02:44 PM
dickson county school is closed tomorrow because of the flu.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 02:46 PM
Nws nashvile updated forcast. Wed night Snow likely and Thursday Snow/Sleet with chances of snow thursday night and friday. Alot can change people but right now we are looking pretty good for a decent snowfall. Special weather statements should be out soon.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 02:46 PM
$20 bucks says if the low tracks south of Birmingham we get nothing. Come back and review my post mid day Thursday…Rain or nothing folks.
Posted by: Clarence at January 29, 2007 02:55 PM
Wrong….if low goes south of B-ham then we get snow
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:04 PM
it is true that dickson county school is closed tomorrow because of the flu and the water pipe.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 03:05 PM
It depends on how much moisture we get and how much mid-to-upper-lever WAA we get.
Little moisture + little WAA/U = snow
Little moisture + little WAA/S = snow
Little moisture + gaping WAA/U = sleet
Little moisture + gaping WAA/S = rain
Gaping moisture + little WAA/U = snow
Gaping moisture + little WAA/S = repeat of 3/1996
Gaping moisture + gaping WAA/U = freezing rain
Gaping moisture + gaping WAA/S = repeat of 03/2002
Posted by: Kailyn Leto at January 29, 2007 03:08 PM
Hey mets!!!
Please give us an update!!! People are going to start getting rude again if you don’t…
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:12 PM
My so called expertise is in Severe Weather, but I have seen this setup so many times in the past. If the low is south of the B’ham area it will have much less affect on our upper air environs and the precip will be hard pressed to make it in here regardless of temps. If it is in the B’ham area or above look for warmer gulf air to work its way into the upper atmosphere in middle TN, screwing our chances…
Posted by: Clarence at January 29, 2007 03:16 PM
So things are looking up it sounds??? Maybe???? Possibly???
:) 
Can’t someone start a forum for people in Dickson County and care about the schools there????
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 03:17 PM
“My so called expertise is in Severe Weather, but I have seen this setup so many times in the past. If the low is south of the B’ham area it will have much less affect on our upper air environs and the precip will be hard pressed to make it in here regardless of temps. If it is in the B’ham area or above look for warmer gulf air to work its way into the upper atmosphere in middle TN, screwing our chances…”
Sounds an awfully lot like a lose-lose situation there…why would the mets and nws even bother putting snow in the forecast?
Posted by: Verbatim at January 29, 2007 03:21 PM
I ask myself that same question every winter…lol
Posted by: Clarence at January 29, 2007 03:23 PM
Ok this Wendesday night and Thursaday will start out as snow Wed/night and then mix Thursday before ending as another light snow Thursady night. Then Sunday looks very impressive with possibly an all snow event, with 1-5 inches possible.
Then looking at all long range models it appears the cold air will be locked in with up to 5 snow chances in the next 2 weeks. Winter is Back!!!!!!!
Posted by: JustSOYouKnow at January 29, 2007 03:24 PM
well at least the ground temperatures will be in our favor considering most locals were in single digits this morning…and we should be in the lower teens tuesday night-wednesday am as it stands now so that’s one thing in our favor. it seems to me if the storm is as strong as is described, the only element that is in question is the position of the gulf low obviously. not like it really matters but at least newschannel5 has lowered their temps and increased precip %…and NOAA is giving us a 60% chance of snow/sleet wednesday night. not like it means anything…
Posted by: Cameron Fry at January 29, 2007 03:29 PM
So what you are saying then is rain or nothing right?
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 03:34 PM
JustSO: anything that is forecast beyond 5days I never listen to. EVEN though the GFS shows an IMPRESSIVE system sunday-monday i will believe it when i see it
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:36 PM
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
335 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007
TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-301015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…DOVER…CLARKSVILLE…SPRINGFIELD…
GALLATIN…LAFAYETTE…CELINA…BYRDSTOWN…CAMDEN…ERIN…
WAVERLY…DICKSON…ASHLAND CITY…KINGSTON SPRINGS…NASHVILLE…
LEBANON…MOUNT JULIET…HARTSVILLE…CARTHAGE…GAINESBORO…
COOKEVILLE…LIVINGSTON…JAMESTOWN…ALLARDT…LINDEN…
LOBELVILLE…CENTERVILLE…HOHENWALD…FRANKLIN…BRENTWOOD…
COLUMBIA…LEWISBURG…MURFREESBORO…WOODBURY…SMITHVILLE…
SPARTA…CROSSVILLE…FAIRFIELD GLADE…SHELBYVILLE…TULLAHOMA…
MANCHESTER…MCMINNVILLE…TRACY CITY…ALTAMONT…COALMONT…
SPENCER…WAYNESBORO…LAWRENCEBURG…PULASKI
335 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007
…SNOW AND SLEET MAY DEVELOP IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY…
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THIS WEEK. A WEAK
STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST…CAUSING MOISTURE
TO SPREAD ACROSS TENNESSEE AND SURROUNDING AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SNOW AND SLEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN ON THURSDAY.
EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME…BUT EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME AREAS COULD HAVE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL…ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
SNOW AND ICE COULD MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY…SO PEOPLE SHOULD MONITOR
UPDATED FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTER
WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE REGION.
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:38 PM
blah blah blah….they same the same I-40 crap every time. Ther eare many spots below I-40 that are over 1,000 feet above sea level which effects the precip type.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:39 PM
I never said that this was intelligent, just thought I would post this.
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:40 PM
also if it starts as snow wed. and we get 1-2 inches the temps WILL NOT rise much at all thursday….so that statement is not completely accurate to me.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:42 PM
Wednesday
Mostly Sunny
Mostly
Sunny
Hi 35°F Wednesday
Night
Snow Likely. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%
Snow
Likely
Lo 25°F Thursday
Snow/Sleet. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%
Snow/Sleet
Hi 36°F Thursday
Night
Chance Snow. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Snow
Lo 30°F Friday
Chance Snow. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Snow
This is posted on NOAA website.
Posted by: Pats at January 29, 2007 03:52 PM
Sorry Jamie….didn’t mean to blast you at all….just the NWS screwing up again with their logic…
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:53 PM
Gabe,
We will have no problem as long as you spell my name right
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:56 PM
lol sorry….Jaime…is that pronouced (Jay-meeh) thats a different way to spell it. I know somebody named Mercy but its spelled mercie…kinda cool
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:02 PM
So this is sounding good!!!!!!!!! Yahhhhooooo!!!!
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 04:06 PM
18utc GFS and NAM are starting to come out and it shows a more northerly track to the low. Yes, I regret to say it but the 0C line has gone with it. does not mean that all hope is gone though. 18utc is often overridden substantially by the 00utc run. However, I think that the chance for counties on the border of Alabama will depend A LOT on the track of the low and even minor atmospheric changes. But if low takes a considerably more southerly track could see quite a bit of snow there. Right now think that counties on KY border (yes Gabe and those areas in higher elevations) stand a chance at a decent snow. we really need strong reinforcement of cold air and for the precip to not take its sweet time.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 04:20 PM
Matt I would not take the 18Gfs in account much. It does not have the upper air data that the 00UTC and the 12UTC runs do.Also when looking at the 2m temps this far out be very carefull making any calls. This line can swing north and south very easily. Even with snowcover Thursday could have too much WAA and cause a mix. Sounding charts should be used to look at this. As far as sunday and monday right now just look like snow showers. I dont see anything that is of concern yet.
Right now we are at a point where the forast is on the line. One can easily go ahead and make a call for wed night into thursday. I would wait till tomorrow to project snowfall amounts. Right now the Nws is calling areas getting 1-2″ of snow. This all depends on alot of things. This is when you wana watch the local stations to see how they handle a event. Its seems in my eyes wkrn is handling this well. I know no one wants to get everyone worked up over nothing but by tomorrow afternoon we will bavea a good idea of what happens wed night into thurs. Thanks
Posted by: Rob at January 29, 2007 04:32 PM
When they issue statements this early, we never get anything. We have just been cursed. What will probably happen is either 1) low will go too far south and we get nothing in Nashville, while northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee get 6 to 8 inchs or 2) it will go a little farther north and we get mostly rain. They will double curse us Wednesday by spreading or spraying ungodly amounts of salt on the raods.
I hope I am wrong because nobody wants snow more than me.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 04:37 PM
Lol Heath that will be good for me cause i live right on the boarder of Alabama.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 04:40 PM
Got to love that low of 88 on Monday morning haha. Nice type, or is it that old Nashville heat island.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 04:42 PM
I still think if we get an inch or 2 overnight wed. the temps will not rise.
Also is 1,000 feet in elevation a big difference from the 350 that nashville is at…..cause hohenwald where i live is 1,000+ in elevation
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:53 PM
People talk about cookville being elevated but…..hohenwald is just like 50 feet different
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:56 PM
NWS now saying snow with a little sleet….but mostly snow! Guess there is gonna be a little more cold air aloft….and their temps are coming down too
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:59 PM
Not to bust anyone’s bubble but most of all of the forecasters,including NWS, trend to the snow changing over to rain. As the system moves east and pulls in warmer air. If that is the case I hope it does not snow. Cause snow changing over to rain is worse thing ever. Watching the snow just get washed away in a big sloppy mess.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 05:04 PM
Now we really are jinxed.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:05 PM
Alex I just see snow mixed with sleet…not rain…maybe thats cause i live in hohenwald
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:07 PM
Hey Gabe. I live in Nashville, but on the Nashville Rim. Elevations around 1000 feet. Its quite a pretty view on top of the hill.
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 05:07 PM
From Mr. James Spann down at ABC 33/40 in Birmingham….
(edited for length)
*Much of the nation will be flooded with very cold air in the next two weeks (in some cases, the coldest air in one or two decades)
*”Most of the snow from this system will come Wednesday night and Thursday morning along and north of U.S. 72, especially north of the Tennessee border. The I-40 corridor could see several inches of snow, including Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, and Asheville.”
“As always, this could, and probably will change during the next 24 to 36 hours… stay tuned.”
http://www.alabamawx.com
~hold on to your hats, it’s SHOWTIME!
Posted by: Mike from Cookeville at January 29, 2007 05:08 PM
Also, if the system is moving to our south, why does Hopkinsville Ky have a greater chance of precip than we do here? They have 70% Wed night and 80% Thursday.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:09 PM
pretty much if you live in any outside suburb of nashville, you will be at least 200-300 feet higher. but gabe, i totally agree with you on the whole elevation thing. at first, i didn’t think a difference of 600-700 feet would make much of a difference. but last february when most areas in nashville were getting rain, due to that infamous “wave of warmer area” riding up I-65, where i was living at the time south and east of town (elevation: 936 ft) had two inches on the ground. anyway, like i said earlier, i’m not making any bets or plans until the 24 hour marker (tomorrow night)…if everything starts headin’ in our favor, i’ll be racing to nashville from mobile wednesday afternoon. i’ll tell the people at my church here in mobile to pray that the low heads towards them and not towards birmingham! lol!
Posted by: Cameron Fry at January 29, 2007 05:09 PM
Read the special weather statement. It says the snow will gradually change over to a mix or just rain on Thursday. The models have been trending to this too.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 05:14 PM
Yeah….i remember that storm. Here in hohenwald we got 3 inches….while columbia(just 30 miles east) with an elevation about 500 feet lower got rain. Funny thing is our local METS don’t forecast it that way….they just lump southern middle tennessee all together. But 950-1000 feet makes a difference
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:15 PM
Hey alex…those guys also said yesterday it would not negoin until friday night….so sorry if i dont trust that info too much. Also i was reading another forecast where it says most snow will be between nashville and highway 72 around huntsville alabama…everybody has different forecasts right now.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:22 PM
Rob I know all that about the GFS and the warm winds. I’m just analyzing the 18z model run. I know that 18z is the least accurate but also think that it will be hard to get too much snow in southern counties.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 05:28 PM
Ok…ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE. EVerything is up in the air right now…. I have an opinion right now but it could change,a more definitive forecast will come by tomorrows models.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:28 PM
once again….don’t lump all south counties together…some of us are over 1,000 feet in elevation
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:29 PM
Yes yall got to remeber they were not forecasting anything big yesterday but now look whats in the mix. Weather changes in a blink of an eye. They cant pinpoint were a tornado is going to hit so what makes you think they can pinpoint were snow is going to hit. We just got to watch and see damit!!!!! All hale satan lord of darkness!!!! Hes in control
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:32 PM
What elevation is Hermitage/Mt. Juliet area?
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:33 PM
Not even Satin is that ignorant. perhaps you need to get a life. Maybe you should find another outlet for your jealousy. Afterall, hatred is a by product of jealousy.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:43 PM
Ok, so it’s looking like we are going to get some kind of winter precip., finally! Of course it will be along the I-40 line to the north, always is!! I think Rutherford, Williamson, and Davidson county have this anti-snow bubble around them every winter. It always seems to snow above, below, and beside these three counties, but never in these counties. I’ve been doing my snow dance, and I’ve got my fingers crossed this time we get something!!! LET IT SNOW
Posted by: Meghan at January 29, 2007 05:43 PM
What does the Farmer’s Almanac say for this week?
Posted by: Lucas at January 29, 2007 05:45 PM
mine says flurries.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 05:46 PM
Whoever posted in my name earlier….remember, immitation is the most sincere from of flattery…..thanks!
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:51 PM
Heath…Mt. Juliet is close to 600 feet. wheras nashvile is around 450.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:54 PM
For the Channel 2 Mets:
What weather event occurred on January 28, 1951? I read an article about falling temps and a memorable weather event but that was all that was mentioned. Was it an ice storm that hit Middle Tennessee on that date? Thanks
Posted by: WeatherGeek at January 29, 2007 05:55 PM
Meghan, I can remember 3 winters ago when i lived in Antioch, it did snow a complete circle around my house. My ground did not get covered a single time that winter. But the rest of Middle Tennessee got snow at some point.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:56 PM
The Great Ice Storm of 1951. Now go and google it.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 05:57 PM
My updated Snow analysis at MTEC is hot of the press, if anybody wants to check it out
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 06:03 PM
MTWC, I mean.
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 06:04 PM
Posted by: Anonymous at January 30, 2007 02:04 AM
Post a comment
Please give us an update!!! People are going to start getting rude again if you don’t…
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:12 PM
My so called expertise is in Severe Weather, but I have seen this setup so many times in the past. If the low is south of the B’ham area it will have much less affect on our upper air environs and the precip will be hard pressed to make it in here regardless of temps. If it is in the B’ham area or above look for warmer gulf air to work its way into the upper atmosphere in middle TN, screwing our chances…
Posted by: Clarence at January 29, 2007 03:16 PM
So things are looking up it sounds??? Maybe???? Possibly???
:) 
Can’t someone start a forum for people in Dickson County and care about the schools there????
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 03:17 PM
“My so called expertise is in Severe Weather, but I have seen this setup so many times in the past. If the low is south of the B’ham area it will have much less affect on our upper air environs and the precip will be hard pressed to make it in here regardless of temps. If it is in the B’ham area or above look for warmer gulf air to work its way into the upper atmosphere in middle TN, screwing our chances…”
Sounds an awfully lot like a lose-lose situation there…why would the mets and nws even bother putting snow in the forecast?
Posted by: Verbatim at January 29, 2007 03:21 PM
I ask myself that same question every winter…lol
Posted by: Clarence at January 29, 2007 03:23 PM
Ok this Wendesday night and Thursaday will start out as snow Wed/night and then mix Thursday before ending as another light snow Thursady night. Then Sunday looks very impressive with possibly an all snow event, with 1-5 inches possible.
Then looking at all long range models it appears the cold air will be locked in with up to 5 snow chances in the next 2 weeks. Winter is Back!!!!!!!
Posted by: JustSOYouKnow at January 29, 2007 03:24 PM
well at least the ground temperatures will be in our favor considering most locals were in single digits this morning…and we should be in the lower teens tuesday night-wednesday am as it stands now so that’s one thing in our favor. it seems to me if the storm is as strong as is described, the only element that is in question is the position of the gulf low obviously. not like it really matters but at least newschannel5 has lowered their temps and increased precip %…and NOAA is giving us a 60% chance of snow/sleet wednesday night. not like it means anything…
Posted by: Cameron Fry at January 29, 2007 03:29 PM
So what you are saying then is rain or nothing right?
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 03:34 PM
JustSO: anything that is forecast beyond 5days I never listen to. EVEN though the GFS shows an IMPRESSIVE system sunday-monday i will believe it when i see it
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:36 PM
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
335 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007
TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-301015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…DOVER…CLARKSVILLE…SPRINGFIELD…
GALLATIN…LAFAYETTE…CELINA…BYRDSTOWN…CAMDEN…ERIN…
WAVERLY…DICKSON…ASHLAND CITY…KINGSTON SPRINGS…NASHVILLE…
LEBANON…MOUNT JULIET…HARTSVILLE…CARTHAGE…GAINESBORO…
COOKEVILLE…LIVINGSTON…JAMESTOWN…ALLARDT…LINDEN…
LOBELVILLE…CENTERVILLE…HOHENWALD…FRANKLIN…BRENTWOOD…
COLUMBIA…LEWISBURG…MURFREESBORO…WOODBURY…SMITHVILLE…
SPARTA…CROSSVILLE…FAIRFIELD GLADE…SHELBYVILLE…TULLAHOMA…
MANCHESTER…MCMINNVILLE…TRACY CITY…ALTAMONT…COALMONT…
SPENCER…WAYNESBORO…LAWRENCEBURG…PULASKI
335 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007
…SNOW AND SLEET MAY DEVELOP IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY…
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THIS WEEK. A WEAK
STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST…CAUSING MOISTURE
TO SPREAD ACROSS TENNESSEE AND SURROUNDING AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SNOW AND SLEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN ON THURSDAY.
EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME…BUT EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME AREAS COULD HAVE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL…ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
SNOW AND ICE COULD MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY…SO PEOPLE SHOULD MONITOR
UPDATED FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTER
WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE REGION.
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:38 PM
blah blah blah….they same the same I-40 crap every time. Ther eare many spots below I-40 that are over 1,000 feet above sea level which effects the precip type.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:39 PM
I never said that this was intelligent, just thought I would post this.
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:40 PM
also if it starts as snow wed. and we get 1-2 inches the temps WILL NOT rise much at all thursday….so that statement is not completely accurate to me.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:42 PM
Wednesday
Mostly Sunny
Mostly
Sunny
Hi 35°F Wednesday
Night
Snow Likely. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%
Snow
Likely
Lo 25°F Thursday
Snow/Sleet. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%
Snow/Sleet
Hi 36°F Thursday
Night
Chance Snow. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Snow
Lo 30°F Friday
Chance Snow. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Snow
This is posted on NOAA website.
Posted by: Pats at January 29, 2007 03:52 PM
Sorry Jamie….didn’t mean to blast you at all….just the NWS screwing up again with their logic…
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:53 PM
Gabe,
We will have no problem as long as you spell my name right
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:56 PM
lol sorry….Jaime…is that pronouced (Jay-meeh) thats a different way to spell it. I know somebody named Mercy but its spelled mercie…kinda cool
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:02 PM
So this is sounding good!!!!!!!!! Yahhhhooooo!!!!
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 04:06 PM
18utc GFS and NAM are starting to come out and it shows a more northerly track to the low. Yes, I regret to say it but the 0C line has gone with it. does not mean that all hope is gone though. 18utc is often overridden substantially by the 00utc run. However, I think that the chance for counties on the border of Alabama will depend A LOT on the track of the low and even minor atmospheric changes. But if low takes a considerably more southerly track could see quite a bit of snow there. Right now think that counties on KY border (yes Gabe and those areas in higher elevations) stand a chance at a decent snow. we really need strong reinforcement of cold air and for the precip to not take its sweet time.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 04:20 PM
Matt I would not take the 18Gfs in account much. It does not have the upper air data that the 00UTC and the 12UTC runs do.Also when looking at the 2m temps this far out be very carefull making any calls. This line can swing north and south very easily. Even with snowcover Thursday could have too much WAA and cause a mix. Sounding charts should be used to look at this. As far as sunday and monday right now just look like snow showers. I dont see anything that is of concern yet.
Right now we are at a point where the forast is on the line. One can easily go ahead and make a call for wed night into thursday. I would wait till tomorrow to project snowfall amounts. Right now the Nws is calling areas getting 1-2″ of snow. This all depends on alot of things. This is when you wana watch the local stations to see how they handle a event. Its seems in my eyes wkrn is handling this well. I know no one wants to get everyone worked up over nothing but by tomorrow afternoon we will bavea a good idea of what happens wed night into thurs. Thanks
Posted by: Rob at January 29, 2007 04:32 PM
When they issue statements this early, we never get anything. We have just been cursed. What will probably happen is either 1) low will go too far south and we get nothing in Nashville, while northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee get 6 to 8 inchs or 2) it will go a little farther north and we get mostly rain. They will double curse us Wednesday by spreading or spraying ungodly amounts of salt on the raods.
I hope I am wrong because nobody wants snow more than me.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 04:37 PM
Lol Heath that will be good for me cause i live right on the boarder of Alabama.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 04:40 PM
Got to love that low of 88 on Monday morning haha. Nice type, or is it that old Nashville heat island.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 04:42 PM
I still think if we get an inch or 2 overnight wed. the temps will not rise.
Also is 1,000 feet in elevation a big difference from the 350 that nashville is at…..cause hohenwald where i live is 1,000+ in elevation
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:53 PM
People talk about cookville being elevated but…..hohenwald is just like 50 feet different
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:56 PM
NWS now saying snow with a little sleet….but mostly snow! Guess there is gonna be a little more cold air aloft….and their temps are coming down too
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:59 PM
Not to bust anyone’s bubble but most of all of the forecasters,including NWS, trend to the snow changing over to rain. As the system moves east and pulls in warmer air. If that is the case I hope it does not snow. Cause snow changing over to rain is worse thing ever. Watching the snow just get washed away in a big sloppy mess.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 05:04 PM
Now we really are jinxed.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:05 PM
Alex I just see snow mixed with sleet…not rain…maybe thats cause i live in hohenwald
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:07 PM
Hey Gabe. I live in Nashville, but on the Nashville Rim. Elevations around 1000 feet. Its quite a pretty view on top of the hill.
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 05:07 PM
From Mr. James Spann down at ABC 33/40 in Birmingham….
(edited for length)
*Much of the nation will be flooded with very cold air in the next two weeks (in some cases, the coldest air in one or two decades)
*”Most of the snow from this system will come Wednesday night and Thursday morning along and north of U.S. 72, especially north of the Tennessee border. The I-40 corridor could see several inches of snow, including Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, and Asheville.”
“As always, this could, and probably will change during the next 24 to 36 hours… stay tuned.”
http://www.alabamawx.com
~hold on to your hats, it’s SHOWTIME!
Posted by: Mike from Cookeville at January 29, 2007 05:08 PM
Also, if the system is moving to our south, why does Hopkinsville Ky have a greater chance of precip than we do here? They have 70% Wed night and 80% Thursday.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:09 PM
pretty much if you live in any outside suburb of nashville, you will be at least 200-300 feet higher. but gabe, i totally agree with you on the whole elevation thing. at first, i didn’t think a difference of 600-700 feet would make much of a difference. but last february when most areas in nashville were getting rain, due to that infamous “wave of warmer area” riding up I-65, where i was living at the time south and east of town (elevation: 936 ft) had two inches on the ground. anyway, like i said earlier, i’m not making any bets or plans until the 24 hour marker (tomorrow night)…if everything starts headin’ in our favor, i’ll be racing to nashville from mobile wednesday afternoon. i’ll tell the people at my church here in mobile to pray that the low heads towards them and not towards birmingham! lol!
Posted by: Cameron Fry at January 29, 2007 05:09 PM
Read the special weather statement. It says the snow will gradually change over to a mix or just rain on Thursday. The models have been trending to this too.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 05:14 PM
Yeah….i remember that storm. Here in hohenwald we got 3 inches….while columbia(just 30 miles east) with an elevation about 500 feet lower got rain. Funny thing is our local METS don’t forecast it that way….they just lump southern middle tennessee all together. But 950-1000 feet makes a difference
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:15 PM
Hey alex…those guys also said yesterday it would not negoin until friday night….so sorry if i dont trust that info too much. Also i was reading another forecast where it says most snow will be between nashville and highway 72 around huntsville alabama…everybody has different forecasts right now.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:22 PM
Rob I know all that about the GFS and the warm winds. I’m just analyzing the 18z model run. I know that 18z is the least accurate but also think that it will be hard to get too much snow in southern counties.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 05:28 PM
Ok…ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE. EVerything is up in the air right now…. I have an opinion right now but it could change,a more definitive forecast will come by tomorrows models.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:28 PM
once again….don’t lump all south counties together…some of us are over 1,000 feet in elevation
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:29 PM
Yes yall got to remeber they were not forecasting anything big yesterday but now look whats in the mix. Weather changes in a blink of an eye. They cant pinpoint were a tornado is going to hit so what makes you think they can pinpoint were snow is going to hit. We just got to watch and see damit!!!!! All hale satan lord of darkness!!!! Hes in control
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:32 PM
What elevation is Hermitage/Mt. Juliet area?
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:33 PM
Not even Satin is that ignorant. perhaps you need to get a life. Maybe you should find another outlet for your jealousy. Afterall, hatred is a by product of jealousy.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:43 PM
Ok, so it’s looking like we are going to get some kind of winter precip., finally! Of course it will be along the I-40 line to the north, always is!! I think Rutherford, Williamson, and Davidson county have this anti-snow bubble around them every winter. It always seems to snow above, below, and beside these three counties, but never in these counties. I’ve been doing my snow dance, and I’ve got my fingers crossed this time we get something!!! LET IT SNOW
Posted by: Meghan at January 29, 2007 05:43 PM
What does the Farmer’s Almanac say for this week?
Posted by: Lucas at January 29, 2007 05:45 PM
mine says flurries.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 05:46 PM
Whoever posted in my name earlier….remember, immitation is the most sincere from of flattery…..thanks!
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:51 PM
Heath…Mt. Juliet is close to 600 feet. wheras nashvile is around 450.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:54 PM
For the Channel 2 Mets:
What weather event occurred on January 28, 1951? I read an article about falling temps and a memorable weather event but that was all that was mentioned. Was it an ice storm that hit Middle Tennessee on that date? Thanks
Posted by: WeatherGeek at January 29, 2007 05:55 PM
Meghan, I can remember 3 winters ago when i lived in Antioch, it did snow a complete circle around my house. My ground did not get covered a single time that winter. But the rest of Middle Tennessee got snow at some point.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:56 PM
The Great Ice Storm of 1951. Now go and google it.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 05:57 PM
My updated Snow analysis at MTEC is hot of the press, if anybody wants to check it out
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 06:03 PM
MTWC, I mean.
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 06:04 PM
Posted by: Anonymous at January 30, 2007 02:04 AM
Coldest Morning This Winter | Main | Re-enforcing Cold Front Moving In on Tuesday Morning…& The Latest On The “Wintery” Situation Later This Week »
January 29, 2007
Model Flip-Flops
Most of the computer models we use to create a forecast are run four times per day. In this difficult weather pattern, the same model might yield four different solution in 24 short hours! The models have oscillated from a cold to warm solution between this morning and midday. Disappointing for snow lovers, but hope is not lost. It’s important not to get caught up in the run-to-run details and keep your eye on the big picture.
Below is tomorrow’s predicted upper air pattern. Two things to point out: a big disturbance diving through the Midwest will bring cold northwest winds and reinforce the chill tomorrow. We might even squeeze out a few flurries. The second, more important feature is off the Southern California coast in the image below. That upper air disturbance will swing east and cause a surface low to develop late Wednesday through Thursday. The low pressure will pass south of Tennessee but the exact track remains uncertain. The particular path of that surface low will determine what type of precipitation we get on Thursday.
The late morning model runs suggest that the surface low pressure will move from Houston to Birmingham. That’s farther north (and warmer) than the early morning models had predicted. Again, it’s important to not get caught up in the run-to-run details of the computer models. The upper air disturbance that will kick start our mid-week system is roughly 2,000 miles away! I think we’ll see more model flip-flopping in the next few days…so stay tuned to the blog and our television forecasts for the latest thinking.
Posted by Justin at January 29, 2007 11:28 AM
Comments
Time for the snow dance!!!!
Thanks for the info Justin. Please keep us snow lover’s update! Im crossing my fingers!
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 11:36 AM
We’ll just have to be patient and wait/see what happens!
There is a good snow coming for this winter, it’s just a question of when.
Posted by: Mike from Cookeville at January 29, 2007 11:38 AM
Guess it means no snow, huh
Posted by: Vicki at January 29, 2007 11:38 AM
Come on snowflakes!!! We need the snow to close schools in Rutherford County so our sick kids will have time to get well without missing class time. And a little snow play won’t hurt either!!
Posted by: Meghan at January 29, 2007 11:38 AM
Amen Meghan, Although my 9 year old has had the crud twice since Xmas vacation, I think a big snow day would be just what the doctor ordered. Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow!!!!!
Posted by: Pats at January 29, 2007 12:01 PM
My family is coming up to Gatlinburg this week…heading up tomorrow…is there a good chance we will see some snow?
Posted by: Brandi at January 29, 2007 12:03 PM
like i said i guess we live to close to hell and it does not snow in hell..
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 12:17 PM
That’s a cool weather model, man…if I stare at it, the swirls start to move…grooovy…
Posted by: Ginger at January 29, 2007 12:18 PM
ARRGGG!!
The dreaded northward trend with WAA. Man, I sure thought with all this cold air coming in that would be the last thing to happen with this storm.
Posted by: wdbeas at January 29, 2007 12:21 PM
Nice work guys, in reviewing weather.com, they have dropped there temp now to the low 40’s and calling for Rain then Snow, if you are fortunate enough to live in Clarksville they are calling for all snow with flurries tonight and tomorrow in that area
Posted by: weatherdawg at January 29, 2007 12:22 PM
It’s a real pisser living in Tennessee. Couple hundred miles further north and we would always be snow. A couple hundred miles south and it would always be rain. Our geographic location causes hell for all…lol
Posted by: Anon at January 29, 2007 12:29 PM
is dickson county school is closed tomorrow because of the flu.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 01:01 PM
Justin, we need snow this week and lots of it. Help!
Posted by: Vicki at January 29, 2007 01:40 PM
Right Now the Gfs is not the model to watch. I think the Euro has alot better handle on the situation. The track is going to play a big role in what type of precip comes down as wkrn has said. The latest 12Z Euro is out and Im looking at the Gempack Images right now. Right now the HPC puts this area in a Slight risk of 4″> of snow. So before we start hearing all this Its never gona snow and ” They ” can nevere get the forcast right. Its still too early to figure out details but the threat of a winter event is the greastest its been this year. So lets sit back and see how things pan out for a day. You can ride the up and down rollercoaster of models. You go with trends and agreement.
Posted by: Rpb at January 29, 2007 02:01 PM
I would like to go back and comment on the gfs.The Gfs could pan out correct no dout, but some other Met and I agree that the Euro is better to watch.
Posted by: Rob at January 29, 2007 02:08 PM
The GFS has been crappy the past few weeks anyways. I still say the low will go around montgomery and that would bring all snow wed. night and if we can accumulate an inch the temps wont rise.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:22 PM
however, if the low does pass over B-ham we have NO chance at snow. We need it to be between mobile and montgomery alabama
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:29 PM
and oh BTW if this system does not bring snow i will be officaly ANGRY!….hehe
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:31 PM
00utc shows the low south of montgomery starting wed. night….YAY! Lets hope that comes true
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:35 PM
I will be angry too. I need to stay home Thursday.
I want a snow day so bad I can’t stand it!!!
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 02:37 PM
If this system does not bring a decent amount of snow, I will go to the Grand Canyon and jump.
BTW, just for giggles…do any of the long range forecast show any possibility for snow around the end of the weekend and next week?
Back to taking it one system at a time now. Why can’t we have at least one ‘flip-flop’ go OUR way?!?
Posted by: Verbatim at January 29, 2007 02:39 PM
It’s because the models *cough* GFS!!! *cough* doesn’t handle cold air well and always underestimates WAA up until 18 minutes and 21 seconds before the event starts.
Posted by: Kailyn Leto at January 29, 2007 02:43 PM
Grammar error…models DON’T…
Posted by: Kailyn Leto at January 29, 2007 02:44 PM
dickson county school is closed tomorrow because of the flu.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 02:46 PM
Nws nashvile updated forcast. Wed night Snow likely and Thursday Snow/Sleet with chances of snow thursday night and friday. Alot can change people but right now we are looking pretty good for a decent snowfall. Special weather statements should be out soon.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 02:46 PM
$20 bucks says if the low tracks south of Birmingham we get nothing. Come back and review my post mid day Thursday…Rain or nothing folks.
Posted by: Clarence at January 29, 2007 02:55 PM
Wrong….if low goes south of B-ham then we get snow
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:04 PM
it is true that dickson county school is closed tomorrow because of the flu and the water pipe.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 03:05 PM
It depends on how much moisture we get and how much mid-to-upper-lever WAA we get.
Little moisture + little WAA/U = snow
Little moisture + little WAA/S = snow
Little moisture + gaping WAA/U = sleet
Little moisture + gaping WAA/S = rain
Gaping moisture + little WAA/U = snow
Gaping moisture + little WAA/S = repeat of 3/1996
Gaping moisture + gaping WAA/U = freezing rain
Gaping moisture + gaping WAA/S = repeat of 03/2002
Posted by: Kailyn Leto at January 29, 2007 03:08 PM
Hey mets!!!
Please give us an update!!! People are going to start getting rude again if you don’t…
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:12 PM
My so called expertise is in Severe Weather, but I have seen this setup so many times in the past. If the low is south of the B’ham area it will have much less affect on our upper air environs and the precip will be hard pressed to make it in here regardless of temps. If it is in the B’ham area or above look for warmer gulf air to work its way into the upper atmosphere in middle TN, screwing our chances…
Posted by: Clarence at January 29, 2007 03:16 PM
So things are looking up it sounds??? Maybe???? Possibly???
:) 
Can’t someone start a forum for people in Dickson County and care about the schools there????
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 03:17 PM
“My so called expertise is in Severe Weather, but I have seen this setup so many times in the past. If the low is south of the B’ham area it will have much less affect on our upper air environs and the precip will be hard pressed to make it in here regardless of temps. If it is in the B’ham area or above look for warmer gulf air to work its way into the upper atmosphere in middle TN, screwing our chances…”
Sounds an awfully lot like a lose-lose situation there…why would the mets and nws even bother putting snow in the forecast?
Posted by: Verbatim at January 29, 2007 03:21 PM
I ask myself that same question every winter…lol
Posted by: Clarence at January 29, 2007 03:23 PM
Ok this Wendesday night and Thursaday will start out as snow Wed/night and then mix Thursday before ending as another light snow Thursady night. Then Sunday looks very impressive with possibly an all snow event, with 1-5 inches possible.
Then looking at all long range models it appears the cold air will be locked in with up to 5 snow chances in the next 2 weeks. Winter is Back!!!!!!!
Posted by: JustSOYouKnow at January 29, 2007 03:24 PM
well at least the ground temperatures will be in our favor considering most locals were in single digits this morning…and we should be in the lower teens tuesday night-wednesday am as it stands now so that’s one thing in our favor. it seems to me if the storm is as strong as is described, the only element that is in question is the position of the gulf low obviously. not like it really matters but at least newschannel5 has lowered their temps and increased precip %…and NOAA is giving us a 60% chance of snow/sleet wednesday night. not like it means anything…
Posted by: Cameron Fry at January 29, 2007 03:29 PM
So what you are saying then is rain or nothing right?
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 03:34 PM
JustSO: anything that is forecast beyond 5days I never listen to. EVEN though the GFS shows an IMPRESSIVE system sunday-monday i will believe it when i see it
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:36 PM
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
335 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007
TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-301015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…DOVER…CLARKSVILLE…SPRINGFIELD…
GALLATIN…LAFAYETTE…CELINA…BYRDSTOWN…CAMDEN…ERIN…
WAVERLY…DICKSON…ASHLAND CITY…KINGSTON SPRINGS…NASHVILLE…
LEBANON…MOUNT JULIET…HARTSVILLE…CARTHAGE…GAINESBORO…
COOKEVILLE…LIVINGSTON…JAMESTOWN…ALLARDT…LINDEN…
LOBELVILLE…CENTERVILLE…HOHENWALD…FRANKLIN…BRENTWOOD…
COLUMBIA…LEWISBURG…MURFREESBORO…WOODBURY…SMITHVILLE…
SPARTA…CROSSVILLE…FAIRFIELD GLADE…SHELBYVILLE…TULLAHOMA…
MANCHESTER…MCMINNVILLE…TRACY CITY…ALTAMONT…COALMONT…
SPENCER…WAYNESBORO…LAWRENCEBURG…PULASKI
335 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007
…SNOW AND SLEET MAY DEVELOP IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY…
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THIS WEEK. A WEAK
STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST…CAUSING MOISTURE
TO SPREAD ACROSS TENNESSEE AND SURROUNDING AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SNOW AND SLEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN ON THURSDAY.
EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME…BUT EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME AREAS COULD HAVE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL…ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
SNOW AND ICE COULD MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY…SO PEOPLE SHOULD MONITOR
UPDATED FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTER
WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE REGION.
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:38 PM
blah blah blah….they same the same I-40 crap every time. Ther eare many spots below I-40 that are over 1,000 feet above sea level which effects the precip type.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:39 PM
I never said that this was intelligent, just thought I would post this.
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:40 PM
also if it starts as snow wed. and we get 1-2 inches the temps WILL NOT rise much at all thursday….so that statement is not completely accurate to me.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:42 PM
Wednesday
Mostly Sunny
Mostly
Sunny
Hi 35°F Wednesday
Night
Snow Likely. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%
Snow
Likely
Lo 25°F Thursday
Snow/Sleet. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%
Snow/Sleet
Hi 36°F Thursday
Night
Chance Snow. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Snow
Lo 30°F Friday
Chance Snow. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Snow
This is posted on NOAA website.
Posted by: Pats at January 29, 2007 03:52 PM
Sorry Jamie….didn’t mean to blast you at all….just the NWS screwing up again with their logic…
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:53 PM
Gabe,
We will have no problem as long as you spell my name right
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:56 PM
lol sorry….Jaime…is that pronouced (Jay-meeh) thats a different way to spell it. I know somebody named Mercy but its spelled mercie…kinda cool
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:02 PM
So this is sounding good!!!!!!!!! Yahhhhooooo!!!!
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 04:06 PM
18utc GFS and NAM are starting to come out and it shows a more northerly track to the low. Yes, I regret to say it but the 0C line has gone with it. does not mean that all hope is gone though. 18utc is often overridden substantially by the 00utc run. However, I think that the chance for counties on the border of Alabama will depend A LOT on the track of the low and even minor atmospheric changes. But if low takes a considerably more southerly track could see quite a bit of snow there. Right now think that counties on KY border (yes Gabe and those areas in higher elevations) stand a chance at a decent snow. we really need strong reinforcement of cold air and for the precip to not take its sweet time.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 04:20 PM
Matt I would not take the 18Gfs in account much. It does not have the upper air data that the 00UTC and the 12UTC runs do.Also when looking at the 2m temps this far out be very carefull making any calls. This line can swing north and south very easily. Even with snowcover Thursday could have too much WAA and cause a mix. Sounding charts should be used to look at this. As far as sunday and monday right now just look like snow showers. I dont see anything that is of concern yet.
Right now we are at a point where the forast is on the line. One can easily go ahead and make a call for wed night into thursday. I would wait till tomorrow to project snowfall amounts. Right now the Nws is calling areas getting 1-2″ of snow. This all depends on alot of things. This is when you wana watch the local stations to see how they handle a event. Its seems in my eyes wkrn is handling this well. I know no one wants to get everyone worked up over nothing but by tomorrow afternoon we will bavea a good idea of what happens wed night into thurs. Thanks
Posted by: Rob at January 29, 2007 04:32 PM
When they issue statements this early, we never get anything. We have just been cursed. What will probably happen is either 1) low will go too far south and we get nothing in Nashville, while northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee get 6 to 8 inchs or 2) it will go a little farther north and we get mostly rain. They will double curse us Wednesday by spreading or spraying ungodly amounts of salt on the raods.
I hope I am wrong because nobody wants snow more than me.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 04:37 PM
Lol Heath that will be good for me cause i live right on the boarder of Alabama.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 04:40 PM
Got to love that low of 88 on Monday morning haha. Nice type, or is it that old Nashville heat island.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 04:42 PM
I still think if we get an inch or 2 overnight wed. the temps will not rise.
Also is 1,000 feet in elevation a big difference from the 350 that nashville is at…..cause hohenwald where i live is 1,000+ in elevation
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:53 PM
People talk about cookville being elevated but…..hohenwald is just like 50 feet different
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:56 PM
NWS now saying snow with a little sleet….but mostly snow! Guess there is gonna be a little more cold air aloft….and their temps are coming down too
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:59 PM
Not to bust anyone’s bubble but most of all of the forecasters,including NWS, trend to the snow changing over to rain. As the system moves east and pulls in warmer air. If that is the case I hope it does not snow. Cause snow changing over to rain is worse thing ever. Watching the snow just get washed away in a big sloppy mess.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 05:04 PM
Now we really are jinxed.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:05 PM
Alex I just see snow mixed with sleet…not rain…maybe thats cause i live in hohenwald
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:07 PM
Hey Gabe. I live in Nashville, but on the Nashville Rim. Elevations around 1000 feet. Its quite a pretty view on top of the hill.
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 05:07 PM
From Mr. James Spann down at ABC 33/40 in Birmingham….
(edited for length)
*Much of the nation will be flooded with very cold air in the next two weeks (in some cases, the coldest air in one or two decades)
*”Most of the snow from this system will come Wednesday night and Thursday morning along and north of U.S. 72, especially north of the Tennessee border. The I-40 corridor could see several inches of snow, including Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, and Asheville.”
“As always, this could, and probably will change during the next 24 to 36 hours… stay tuned.”
http://www.alabamawx.com
~hold on to your hats, it’s SHOWTIME!
Posted by: Mike from Cookeville at January 29, 2007 05:08 PM
Also, if the system is moving to our south, why does Hopkinsville Ky have a greater chance of precip than we do here? They have 70% Wed night and 80% Thursday.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:09 PM
pretty much if you live in any outside suburb of nashville, you will be at least 200-300 feet higher. but gabe, i totally agree with you on the whole elevation thing. at first, i didn’t think a difference of 600-700 feet would make much of a difference. but last february when most areas in nashville were getting rain, due to that infamous “wave of warmer area” riding up I-65, where i was living at the time south and east of town (elevation: 936 ft) had two inches on the ground. anyway, like i said earlier, i’m not making any bets or plans until the 24 hour marker (tomorrow night)…if everything starts headin’ in our favor, i’ll be racing to nashville from mobile wednesday afternoon. i’ll tell the people at my church here in mobile to pray that the low heads towards them and not towards birmingham! lol!
Posted by: Cameron Fry at January 29, 2007 05:09 PM
Read the special weather statement. It says the snow will gradually change over to a mix or just rain on Thursday. The models have been trending to this too.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 05:14 PM
Yeah….i remember that storm. Here in hohenwald we got 3 inches….while columbia(just 30 miles east) with an elevation about 500 feet lower got rain. Funny thing is our local METS don’t forecast it that way….they just lump southern middle tennessee all together. But 950-1000 feet makes a difference
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:15 PM
Hey alex…those guys also said yesterday it would not negoin until friday night….so sorry if i dont trust that info too much. Also i was reading another forecast where it says most snow will be between nashville and highway 72 around huntsville alabama…everybody has different forecasts right now.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:22 PM
Rob I know all that about the GFS and the warm winds. I’m just analyzing the 18z model run. I know that 18z is the least accurate but also think that it will be hard to get too much snow in southern counties.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 05:28 PM
Ok…ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE. EVerything is up in the air right now…. I have an opinion right now but it could change,a more definitive forecast will come by tomorrows models.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:28 PM
once again….don’t lump all south counties together…some of us are over 1,000 feet in elevation
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:29 PM
Yes yall got to remeber they were not forecasting anything big yesterday but now look whats in the mix. Weather changes in a blink of an eye. They cant pinpoint were a tornado is going to hit so what makes you think they can pinpoint were snow is going to hit. We just got to watch and see damit!!!!! All hale satan lord of darkness!!!! Hes in control
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:32 PM
What elevation is Hermitage/Mt. Juliet area?
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:33 PM
Not even Satin is that ignorant. perhaps you need to get a life. Maybe you should find another outlet for your jealousy. Afterall, hatred is a by product of jealousy.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:43 PM
Ok, so it’s looking like we are going to get some kind of winter precip., finally! Of course it will be along the I-40 line to the north, always is!! I think Rutherford, Williamson, and Davidson county have this anti-snow bubble around them every winter. It always seems to snow above, below, and beside these three counties, but never in these counties. I’ve been doing my snow dance, and I’ve got my fingers crossed this time we get something!!! LET IT SNOW
Posted by: Meghan at January 29, 2007 05:43 PM
What does the Farmer’s Almanac say for this week?
Posted by: Lucas at January 29, 2007 05:45 PM
mine says flurries.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 05:46 PM
Whoever posted in my name earlier….remember, immitation is the most sincere from of flattery…..thanks!
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:51 PM
Heath…Mt. Juliet is close to 600 feet. wheras nashvile is around 450.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:54 PM
For the Channel 2 Mets:
What weather event occurred on January 28, 1951? I read an article about falling temps and a memorable weather event but that was all that was mentioned. Was it an ice storm that hit Middle Tennessee on that date? Thanks
Posted by: WeatherGeek at January 29, 2007 05:55 PM
Meghan, I can remember 3 winters ago when i lived in Antioch, it did snow a complete circle around my house. My ground did not get covered a single time that winter. But the rest of Middle Tennessee got snow at some point.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:56 PM
The Great Ice Storm of 1951. Now go and google it.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 05:57 PM
My updated Snow analysis at MTEC is hot of the press, if anybody wants to check it out
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 06:03 PM
MTWC, I mean.
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 06:04 PM
Posted by: Anonymous at January 30, 2007 02:04 AM
Coldest Morning This Winter | Main | Re-enforcing Cold Front Moving In on Tuesday Morning…& The Latest On The “Wintery” Situation Later This Week »
January 29, 2007
Model Flip-Flops
Most of the computer models we use to create a forecast are run four times per day. In this difficult weather pattern, the same model might yield four different solution in 24 short hours! The models have oscillated from a cold to warm solution between this morning and midday. Disappointing for snow lovers, but hope is not lost. It’s important not to get caught up in the run-to-run details and keep your eye on the big picture.
Below is tomorrow’s predicted upper air pattern. Two things to point out: a big disturbance diving through the Midwest will bring cold northwest winds and reinforce the chill tomorrow. We might even squeeze out a few flurries. The second, more important feature is off the Southern California coast in the image below. That upper air disturbance will swing east and cause a surface low to develop late Wednesday through Thursday. The low pressure will pass south of Tennessee but the exact track remains uncertain. The particular path of that surface low will determine what type of precipitation we get on Thursday.
The late morning model runs suggest that the surface low pressure will move from Houston to Birmingham. That’s farther north (and warmer) than the early morning models had predicted. Again, it’s important to not get caught up in the run-to-run details of the computer models. The upper air disturbance that will kick start our mid-week system is roughly 2,000 miles away! I think we’ll see more model flip-flopping in the next few days…so stay tuned to the blog and our television forecasts for the latest thinking.
Posted by Justin at January 29, 2007 11:28 AM
Comments
Time for the snow dance!!!!
Thanks for the info Justin. Please keep us snow lover’s update! Im crossing my fingers!
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 11:36 AM
We’ll just have to be patient and wait/see what happens!
There is a good snow coming for this winter, it’s just a question of when.
Posted by: Mike from Cookeville at January 29, 2007 11:38 AM
Guess it means no snow, huh
Posted by: Vicki at January 29, 2007 11:38 AM
Come on snowflakes!!! We need the snow to close schools in Rutherford County so our sick kids will have time to get well without missing class time. And a little snow play won’t hurt either!!
Posted by: Meghan at January 29, 2007 11:38 AM
Amen Meghan, Although my 9 year old has had the crud twice since Xmas vacation, I think a big snow day would be just what the doctor ordered. Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow!!!!!
Posted by: Pats at January 29, 2007 12:01 PM
My family is coming up to Gatlinburg this week…heading up tomorrow…is there a good chance we will see some snow?
Posted by: Brandi at January 29, 2007 12:03 PM
like i said i guess we live to close to hell and it does not snow in hell..
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 12:17 PM
That’s a cool weather model, man…if I stare at it, the swirls start to move…grooovy…
Posted by: Ginger at January 29, 2007 12:18 PM
ARRGGG!!
The dreaded northward trend with WAA. Man, I sure thought with all this cold air coming in that would be the last thing to happen with this storm.
Posted by: wdbeas at January 29, 2007 12:21 PM
Nice work guys, in reviewing weather.com, they have dropped there temp now to the low 40’s and calling for Rain then Snow, if you are fortunate enough to live in Clarksville they are calling for all snow with flurries tonight and tomorrow in that area
Posted by: weatherdawg at January 29, 2007 12:22 PM
It’s a real pisser living in Tennessee. Couple hundred miles further north and we would always be snow. A couple hundred miles south and it would always be rain. Our geographic location causes hell for all…lol
Posted by: Anon at January 29, 2007 12:29 PM
is dickson county school is closed tomorrow because of the flu.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 01:01 PM
Justin, we need snow this week and lots of it. Help!
Posted by: Vicki at January 29, 2007 01:40 PM
Right Now the Gfs is not the model to watch. I think the Euro has alot better handle on the situation. The track is going to play a big role in what type of precip comes down as wkrn has said. The latest 12Z Euro is out and Im looking at the Gempack Images right now. Right now the HPC puts this area in a Slight risk of 4″> of snow. So before we start hearing all this Its never gona snow and ” They ” can nevere get the forcast right. Its still too early to figure out details but the threat of a winter event is the greastest its been this year. So lets sit back and see how things pan out for a day. You can ride the up and down rollercoaster of models. You go with trends and agreement.
Posted by: Rpb at January 29, 2007 02:01 PM
I would like to go back and comment on the gfs.The Gfs could pan out correct no dout, but some other Met and I agree that the Euro is better to watch.
Posted by: Rob at January 29, 2007 02:08 PM
The GFS has been crappy the past few weeks anyways. I still say the low will go around montgomery and that would bring all snow wed. night and if we can accumulate an inch the temps wont rise.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:22 PM
however, if the low does pass over B-ham we have NO chance at snow. We need it to be between mobile and montgomery alabama
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:29 PM
and oh BTW if this system does not bring snow i will be officaly ANGRY!….hehe
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:31 PM
00utc shows the low south of montgomery starting wed. night….YAY! Lets hope that comes true
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 02:35 PM
I will be angry too. I need to stay home Thursday.
I want a snow day so bad I can’t stand it!!!
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 02:37 PM
If this system does not bring a decent amount of snow, I will go to the Grand Canyon and jump.
BTW, just for giggles…do any of the long range forecast show any possibility for snow around the end of the weekend and next week?
Back to taking it one system at a time now. Why can’t we have at least one ‘flip-flop’ go OUR way?!?
Posted by: Verbatim at January 29, 2007 02:39 PM
It’s because the models *cough* GFS!!! *cough* doesn’t handle cold air well and always underestimates WAA up until 18 minutes and 21 seconds before the event starts.
Posted by: Kailyn Leto at January 29, 2007 02:43 PM
Grammar error…models DON’T…
Posted by: Kailyn Leto at January 29, 2007 02:44 PM
dickson county school is closed tomorrow because of the flu.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 02:46 PM
Nws nashvile updated forcast. Wed night Snow likely and Thursday Snow/Sleet with chances of snow thursday night and friday. Alot can change people but right now we are looking pretty good for a decent snowfall. Special weather statements should be out soon.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 02:46 PM
$20 bucks says if the low tracks south of Birmingham we get nothing. Come back and review my post mid day Thursday…Rain or nothing folks.
Posted by: Clarence at January 29, 2007 02:55 PM
Wrong….if low goes south of B-ham then we get snow
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:04 PM
it is true that dickson county school is closed tomorrow because of the flu and the water pipe.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 03:05 PM
It depends on how much moisture we get and how much mid-to-upper-lever WAA we get.
Little moisture + little WAA/U = snow
Little moisture + little WAA/S = snow
Little moisture + gaping WAA/U = sleet
Little moisture + gaping WAA/S = rain
Gaping moisture + little WAA/U = snow
Gaping moisture + little WAA/S = repeat of 3/1996
Gaping moisture + gaping WAA/U = freezing rain
Gaping moisture + gaping WAA/S = repeat of 03/2002
Posted by: Kailyn Leto at January 29, 2007 03:08 PM
Hey mets!!!
Please give us an update!!! People are going to start getting rude again if you don’t…
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:12 PM
My so called expertise is in Severe Weather, but I have seen this setup so many times in the past. If the low is south of the B’ham area it will have much less affect on our upper air environs and the precip will be hard pressed to make it in here regardless of temps. If it is in the B’ham area or above look for warmer gulf air to work its way into the upper atmosphere in middle TN, screwing our chances…
Posted by: Clarence at January 29, 2007 03:16 PM
So things are looking up it sounds??? Maybe???? Possibly???
:) 
Can’t someone start a forum for people in Dickson County and care about the schools there????
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 03:17 PM
“My so called expertise is in Severe Weather, but I have seen this setup so many times in the past. If the low is south of the B’ham area it will have much less affect on our upper air environs and the precip will be hard pressed to make it in here regardless of temps. If it is in the B’ham area or above look for warmer gulf air to work its way into the upper atmosphere in middle TN, screwing our chances…”
Sounds an awfully lot like a lose-lose situation there…why would the mets and nws even bother putting snow in the forecast?
Posted by: Verbatim at January 29, 2007 03:21 PM
I ask myself that same question every winter…lol
Posted by: Clarence at January 29, 2007 03:23 PM
Ok this Wendesday night and Thursaday will start out as snow Wed/night and then mix Thursday before ending as another light snow Thursady night. Then Sunday looks very impressive with possibly an all snow event, with 1-5 inches possible.
Then looking at all long range models it appears the cold air will be locked in with up to 5 snow chances in the next 2 weeks. Winter is Back!!!!!!!
Posted by: JustSOYouKnow at January 29, 2007 03:24 PM
well at least the ground temperatures will be in our favor considering most locals were in single digits this morning…and we should be in the lower teens tuesday night-wednesday am as it stands now so that’s one thing in our favor. it seems to me if the storm is as strong as is described, the only element that is in question is the position of the gulf low obviously. not like it really matters but at least newschannel5 has lowered their temps and increased precip %…and NOAA is giving us a 60% chance of snow/sleet wednesday night. not like it means anything…
Posted by: Cameron Fry at January 29, 2007 03:29 PM
So what you are saying then is rain or nothing right?
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 03:34 PM
JustSO: anything that is forecast beyond 5days I never listen to. EVEN though the GFS shows an IMPRESSIVE system sunday-monday i will believe it when i see it
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:36 PM
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
335 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007
TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-301015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…DOVER…CLARKSVILLE…SPRINGFIELD…
GALLATIN…LAFAYETTE…CELINA…BYRDSTOWN…CAMDEN…ERIN…
WAVERLY…DICKSON…ASHLAND CITY…KINGSTON SPRINGS…NASHVILLE…
LEBANON…MOUNT JULIET…HARTSVILLE…CARTHAGE…GAINESBORO…
COOKEVILLE…LIVINGSTON…JAMESTOWN…ALLARDT…LINDEN…
LOBELVILLE…CENTERVILLE…HOHENWALD…FRANKLIN…BRENTWOOD…
COLUMBIA…LEWISBURG…MURFREESBORO…WOODBURY…SMITHVILLE…
SPARTA…CROSSVILLE…FAIRFIELD GLADE…SHELBYVILLE…TULLAHOMA…
MANCHESTER…MCMINNVILLE…TRACY CITY…ALTAMONT…COALMONT…
SPENCER…WAYNESBORO…LAWRENCEBURG…PULASKI
335 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007
…SNOW AND SLEET MAY DEVELOP IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY…
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THIS WEEK. A WEAK
STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST…CAUSING MOISTURE
TO SPREAD ACROSS TENNESSEE AND SURROUNDING AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SNOW AND SLEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN ON THURSDAY.
EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME…BUT EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME AREAS COULD HAVE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL…ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
SNOW AND ICE COULD MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY…SO PEOPLE SHOULD MONITOR
UPDATED FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTER
WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE REGION.
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:38 PM
blah blah blah….they same the same I-40 crap every time. Ther eare many spots below I-40 that are over 1,000 feet above sea level which effects the precip type.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:39 PM
I never said that this was intelligent, just thought I would post this.
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:40 PM
also if it starts as snow wed. and we get 1-2 inches the temps WILL NOT rise much at all thursday….so that statement is not completely accurate to me.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:42 PM
Wednesday
Mostly Sunny
Mostly
Sunny
Hi 35°F Wednesday
Night
Snow Likely. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%
Snow
Likely
Lo 25°F Thursday
Snow/Sleet. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%
Snow/Sleet
Hi 36°F Thursday
Night
Chance Snow. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Snow
Lo 30°F Friday
Chance Snow. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Snow
This is posted on NOAA website.
Posted by: Pats at January 29, 2007 03:52 PM
Sorry Jamie….didn’t mean to blast you at all….just the NWS screwing up again with their logic…
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 03:53 PM
Gabe,
We will have no problem as long as you spell my name right
Posted by: Jaime at January 29, 2007 03:56 PM
lol sorry….Jaime…is that pronouced (Jay-meeh) thats a different way to spell it. I know somebody named Mercy but its spelled mercie…kinda cool
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:02 PM
So this is sounding good!!!!!!!!! Yahhhhooooo!!!!
Posted by: Reneezelle at January 29, 2007 04:06 PM
18utc GFS and NAM are starting to come out and it shows a more northerly track to the low. Yes, I regret to say it but the 0C line has gone with it. does not mean that all hope is gone though. 18utc is often overridden substantially by the 00utc run. However, I think that the chance for counties on the border of Alabama will depend A LOT on the track of the low and even minor atmospheric changes. But if low takes a considerably more southerly track could see quite a bit of snow there. Right now think that counties on KY border (yes Gabe and those areas in higher elevations) stand a chance at a decent snow. we really need strong reinforcement of cold air and for the precip to not take its sweet time.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 04:20 PM
Matt I would not take the 18Gfs in account much. It does not have the upper air data that the 00UTC and the 12UTC runs do.Also when looking at the 2m temps this far out be very carefull making any calls. This line can swing north and south very easily. Even with snowcover Thursday could have too much WAA and cause a mix. Sounding charts should be used to look at this. As far as sunday and monday right now just look like snow showers. I dont see anything that is of concern yet.
Right now we are at a point where the forast is on the line. One can easily go ahead and make a call for wed night into thursday. I would wait till tomorrow to project snowfall amounts. Right now the Nws is calling areas getting 1-2″ of snow. This all depends on alot of things. This is when you wana watch the local stations to see how they handle a event. Its seems in my eyes wkrn is handling this well. I know no one wants to get everyone worked up over nothing but by tomorrow afternoon we will bavea a good idea of what happens wed night into thurs. Thanks
Posted by: Rob at January 29, 2007 04:32 PM
When they issue statements this early, we never get anything. We have just been cursed. What will probably happen is either 1) low will go too far south and we get nothing in Nashville, while northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee get 6 to 8 inchs or 2) it will go a little farther north and we get mostly rain. They will double curse us Wednesday by spreading or spraying ungodly amounts of salt on the raods.
I hope I am wrong because nobody wants snow more than me.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 04:37 PM
Lol Heath that will be good for me cause i live right on the boarder of Alabama.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 04:40 PM
Got to love that low of 88 on Monday morning haha. Nice type, or is it that old Nashville heat island.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 04:42 PM
I still think if we get an inch or 2 overnight wed. the temps will not rise.
Also is 1,000 feet in elevation a big difference from the 350 that nashville is at…..cause hohenwald where i live is 1,000+ in elevation
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:53 PM
People talk about cookville being elevated but…..hohenwald is just like 50 feet different
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:56 PM
NWS now saying snow with a little sleet….but mostly snow! Guess there is gonna be a little more cold air aloft….and their temps are coming down too
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 04:59 PM
Not to bust anyone’s bubble but most of all of the forecasters,including NWS, trend to the snow changing over to rain. As the system moves east and pulls in warmer air. If that is the case I hope it does not snow. Cause snow changing over to rain is worse thing ever. Watching the snow just get washed away in a big sloppy mess.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 05:04 PM
Now we really are jinxed.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:05 PM
Alex I just see snow mixed with sleet…not rain…maybe thats cause i live in hohenwald
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:07 PM
Hey Gabe. I live in Nashville, but on the Nashville Rim. Elevations around 1000 feet. Its quite a pretty view on top of the hill.
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 05:07 PM
From Mr. James Spann down at ABC 33/40 in Birmingham….
(edited for length)
*Much of the nation will be flooded with very cold air in the next two weeks (in some cases, the coldest air in one or two decades)
*”Most of the snow from this system will come Wednesday night and Thursday morning along and north of U.S. 72, especially north of the Tennessee border. The I-40 corridor could see several inches of snow, including Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, and Asheville.”
“As always, this could, and probably will change during the next 24 to 36 hours… stay tuned.”
http://www.alabamawx.com
~hold on to your hats, it’s SHOWTIME!
Posted by: Mike from Cookeville at January 29, 2007 05:08 PM
Also, if the system is moving to our south, why does Hopkinsville Ky have a greater chance of precip than we do here? They have 70% Wed night and 80% Thursday.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:09 PM
pretty much if you live in any outside suburb of nashville, you will be at least 200-300 feet higher. but gabe, i totally agree with you on the whole elevation thing. at first, i didn’t think a difference of 600-700 feet would make much of a difference. but last february when most areas in nashville were getting rain, due to that infamous “wave of warmer area” riding up I-65, where i was living at the time south and east of town (elevation: 936 ft) had two inches on the ground. anyway, like i said earlier, i’m not making any bets or plans until the 24 hour marker (tomorrow night)…if everything starts headin’ in our favor, i’ll be racing to nashville from mobile wednesday afternoon. i’ll tell the people at my church here in mobile to pray that the low heads towards them and not towards birmingham! lol!
Posted by: Cameron Fry at January 29, 2007 05:09 PM
Read the special weather statement. It says the snow will gradually change over to a mix or just rain on Thursday. The models have been trending to this too.
Posted by: Alex at January 29, 2007 05:14 PM
Yeah….i remember that storm. Here in hohenwald we got 3 inches….while columbia(just 30 miles east) with an elevation about 500 feet lower got rain. Funny thing is our local METS don’t forecast it that way….they just lump southern middle tennessee all together. But 950-1000 feet makes a difference
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:15 PM
Hey alex…those guys also said yesterday it would not negoin until friday night….so sorry if i dont trust that info too much. Also i was reading another forecast where it says most snow will be between nashville and highway 72 around huntsville alabama…everybody has different forecasts right now.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:22 PM
Rob I know all that about the GFS and the warm winds. I’m just analyzing the 18z model run. I know that 18z is the least accurate but also think that it will be hard to get too much snow in southern counties.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 05:28 PM
Ok…ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE. EVerything is up in the air right now…. I have an opinion right now but it could change,a more definitive forecast will come by tomorrows models.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:28 PM
once again….don’t lump all south counties together…some of us are over 1,000 feet in elevation
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:29 PM
Yes yall got to remeber they were not forecasting anything big yesterday but now look whats in the mix. Weather changes in a blink of an eye. They cant pinpoint were a tornado is going to hit so what makes you think they can pinpoint were snow is going to hit. We just got to watch and see damit!!!!! All hale satan lord of darkness!!!! Hes in control
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:32 PM
What elevation is Hermitage/Mt. Juliet area?
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:33 PM
Not even Satin is that ignorant. perhaps you need to get a life. Maybe you should find another outlet for your jealousy. Afterall, hatred is a by product of jealousy.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:43 PM
Ok, so it’s looking like we are going to get some kind of winter precip., finally! Of course it will be along the I-40 line to the north, always is!! I think Rutherford, Williamson, and Davidson county have this anti-snow bubble around them every winter. It always seems to snow above, below, and beside these three counties, but never in these counties. I’ve been doing my snow dance, and I’ve got my fingers crossed this time we get something!!! LET IT SNOW
Posted by: Meghan at January 29, 2007 05:43 PM
What does the Farmer’s Almanac say for this week?
Posted by: Lucas at January 29, 2007 05:45 PM
mine says flurries.
Posted by: Matt5797 at January 29, 2007 05:46 PM
Whoever posted in my name earlier….remember, immitation is the most sincere from of flattery…..thanks!
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:51 PM
Heath…Mt. Juliet is close to 600 feet. wheras nashvile is around 450.
Posted by: Gabe at January 29, 2007 05:54 PM
For the Channel 2 Mets:
What weather event occurred on January 28, 1951? I read an article about falling temps and a memorable weather event but that was all that was mentioned. Was it an ice storm that hit Middle Tennessee on that date? Thanks
Posted by: WeatherGeek at January 29, 2007 05:55 PM
Meghan, I can remember 3 winters ago when i lived in Antioch, it did snow a complete circle around my house. My ground did not get covered a single time that winter. But the rest of Middle Tennessee got snow at some point.
Posted by: Heath at January 29, 2007 05:56 PM
The Great Ice Storm of 1951. Now go and google it.
Posted by: Anonymous at January 29, 2007 05:57 PM
My updated Snow analysis at MTEC is hot of the press, if anybody wants to check it out
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 06:03 PM
MTWC, I mean.
Posted by: Clay at January 29, 2007 06:04 PM
Posted by: Anonymous at January 30, 2007 02:04 AM
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