Picture thanks to Christina in northeast Middle Tennessee at 8:45am this morning
National Weather Service Radar at 9:20am Sunday morning showing snow east of Nashville
Davis here, blogging from home:
As usual what snow we have seen has been in the eastern sections of Middle Tennessee. The most will be in an area bounded by Lafayette, Celina, Gainesboro, Livingston, Byrdstown area of northeast Middle Tennessee where some may see a whitening of the ground. If we get any more pictures, I will post them this afternoon. As usual pictures can go to weather@wkrn.com.
The big word is cold! We will not get above freezing today, and if we drop to tonight’s predicted low of 16 at Nashville airport, it will be the lowest temp so far this season. The lowest we’ve seen in Nashville is 17 on December 8, 2006.
Areas north and east of Nashville could drop to 12-15 tonight.
Hi Davis:
We’re keeping an eye on things here in the Cookeville area. I’ve put the WEBCAM in the link on my name…not much snow here….a few flurries!
Christina, you are famous!
The snow continued on for a while but then the sun came out and poof, what had fell was gone in a matter of about 10 minutes. Boo, hiss!
There’s always next time I suppose!
take a look at the 12 utc gfs, it looks really favorable for snow, some which may accumulate.
I just saw the 00z run of GFS if that pans out we might get a real good snow in the 2-5–2-6 timeframe….Am I wrong on this????
I guess we are to close to hell here and cant get snow.. wow i though atlanta was hard for snow.. boy was i wrong…
What happened to the big snow chance for the end of the week?
I was looking at Monday feb 5th. Is that what you guys are looking at? There is another chance on the 9th but that’s way out in voodoo land. Ever since Justin posted that “Hold the mayo please” post, I can not stop watching those James Spann web casts. Altough this weekend it’s Brian Peters.
Is it just me or does the graphic on the lower right show a good snow chane wed. evening. Decent moisture epcially southe tennessee and the 0 line in Alabama
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp1_090.shtml
btw it still looks to me like friday evening we could get big snows
I will say this though….if we dont get a decent moisture supply in the next 2 weeks we will NOT have a good snow this year….we have been in our coldest time of the year for almost 2 weeks now and it wont last forever
The threat for snow over the next 7 days does exist. Models tho have been very bad in the medium range and show one thing one day then something else the other. The 00Gfs run from last night @ 96 hours if very differnt than the 12Gfs. Also the Canadian models are showing something interesting for mid week. So to put it in easy terms the chances this week are there. Mid-Late week storm that vanished how now returned on the 12Gfs run today. 2M Temps and 850Temp look to support snowfall. We are not in the bullseye which is a good thing when you are this far out. Things always will trend up until the weather reaches your home. Justin and others from the weather team, how are you going to forcast snow for the rest of the winter. I see alot of people on here really getting all upset and causing drama. I understand whys it hard to go out on a limb but during this period its very easy to bust and coming from someone thats a very big weather hobbist( Doing the miss state online program for broadcast met) I understand the things you do. So I just wanted to say that your forcasts do use alot more thought than other local stations.Its nice that you have a blog and we can ask questions that are easy or or more direct concerning your forcast. Thanks Rob
the 06z and 12z runs today shows a great chance for nashville to see snow wed night into thursday in fact areas here in northern ga and ala might even see some wintry precip….the trend with todays GFS is to bring the threat farther south….
Rob, I have to look into the psychology of forecasting SNOW. A couple of weekends ago prediction was rain all weekend, a total wash out, and it really never rained much. And no one was upset and throwing temper tantrums.
Last year coined it “Snow Prediction Failure/Inner Child Tantrum” (SPF-ICT)
This is when adults, who have unresolved childhood issues, seek the glory and affirmation of joy through a significant snow event, thus propelling their self into the euphoria they had when they were 8 and it snowed; these feelings are heightened due to re-expriencing the happiness they felt as a child, a feeling they obviously sought, due to conditions they were powerless over which made them unhappy. These gleeful child snow events were thought to hold the answer to their unhappiness, yet the feelings returned when the snow melted.
These adults see snow forecasted and go into a readied state of happiness, sub-conciously anticipating a solution to unresolved childhood strife (past adult snow events lead to a memory loss of the event ending(ie snow melting) and to only the happiness felt during the actual snow event).
When the “promises” of weather forecasters turn out to be false, these adults suffering from SPF-ICT lash out at these “promise keepers” in child like ways. Researchers believe the weather forecasters represent the ones who made the adult’s childhood miserable (parent, teacher, brother, etc…).
These feelings usually subside and memories of such feelings are usually minimal, leading these adults to once again trust the weather forecasters the next time the big one is coming.
I agree with the next 2 weeks will MAKE OR BREAK this winter! If you think about it, the pattern we’re in is about as favorable as it can get. Trough with active southern het stream So if we don’t get snow this month, then it has gotten to the point where it CAN’T snow here anymore.
The overall pattern for cold is good right now. But once you look at alot of the other things that most people have no clue about it makes a little sense.The NAO,PNA,AO,EPO, MJO all play a roll in how our weather will act. Rightnow the Telleconnection are good for artic cold. This is good to get the cold weather in the Tn valley area but can supress the sub tropic jet if too strong. What we need is the nortern and southern jet to phase together. As of lately all the moisture has be confined well south of the nashville area. Everything has been going out to sea to the south of us. So the overall pattern is good yes but the way other Teleconnections ( like the NAO,PNA,AO ect) effect patterns but Lat and Long. Put in easy terms this coming up week with be more favorable for winter weather because the moisture wlll return we and know we have the cold air. We need these to to meet at the correct time to produce a good snowfall. It doesnt happen often but lets watch to see what happens.
Tracy I will always Be a kid when it comes to snow!
Above post was mine.
dickson county school is closing tomorrow becasue of the flu. hickman county school is closing monday and tuesday because of the flu.
guys this letter is from brett anderson of accuweather please read and hope that he is right
What I see going on This Week
Sunday, January 28, 2007
2. A huge, blocking ridge of high pressure will continue to expand along the West Coast of Canada and then up into southeastern Alaska much of this week. This ridge will act as a block, directing Pacific moisture northward into south-central Alaska, while keeping much of the Yukon and British Columbia dry and not that cold through at least Thursday. This same ridge will also direct the bitterly cold air down toward the Prairies and then eastern Canada. More on this below.
3. This type of pattern through the week will lead to a few more clipper storms which will produce some light snow followed by a turn to very cold weather.
4. I am getting very impressed for a strong surge of pure Arctic/Siberian air coming down into the Prairies Thursday. The frigid air will sweep right up into the front range of the Canadian Rockies Thursday and into the weekend. Also expect some snow for Edmonton and Calgary Thursday as the Arctic air moves in, but not a big storm. This same bitterly cold airmass will then expand into the Great Lakes, Ontario and Quebec by next weekend. Look for heavy lake-effect snow during this time just to the east and southeast of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.
5. The cold air I just described will indeed be harsh, but there are indications of a second, even stronger push of brutaly cold air coming down through the eastern Prairies and into western Ontario next Sunday and into Monday the 4th. That air could end up being the coldest in many years for some areas!
This winter is certainly making a major turnaround from what it was through mid-January!
Updated: 1/28/2007 1:26 PM
im ready for some big snows come on mother nature and oh lets have a snowball fight lol
ok this letter is from henry margusity of accuweather
I am in Storm Mode!
Sunday, January 28, 2007
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LEADS TO STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BRING 4+ INCH SNOWS, NOT THE “COATING TO AN INCH” TYPE OF SNOWS…
2. With the trough backing up and the flow across the East going more southwest, that will lead to southern branch storms able to sneak up into the mid-Atlantic over the next 10 days. The GFS models, which have been showing storms, then not showing storms, then showing storms, are driving everyone nuts. I do think a storm is coming at the end of the week, and this one could produce a nice swath of snow with 4+ inches or more. At least, that is my hope, but it seems every time we talk about storms, they seem to get jinxed. Maybe I should just say the weather will be sunny and warm with highs in the 80s and let the weather just get cold and snowy….ok, that was a joke.
In any case, I do think it gets stormy in the East with an increased potential for storms to produce 4+ inch amounts, not the coatings to two inch amounts we have been seeing recently.
they will update this tomorrow
bring on the snow yeeeeeeeehaaaaaaaa
it is true that dickson county school is closing tomorrow because of the flu.
My XBOX sure is fun today. How is the GFS gaming system treating everyone?
Man lol…
IT’S GREAT!!! rotflol
Well… lol… it appears that Dickson IS closed for the flu tomorrow (Monday).
Just reported on News2.
OMG ANON WAS RIGHT!! AHHH!! The world is ending!! hahah but anyways you guys all the models are looking fantasic right now!! BRING ON THE SWATHS OF 4+ INCH SNOWS!!
Check out this map for Thursday
http://nashvilleforums.com/nashville/index.php?topic=101.0
ofcoarse it is GFS output
Keep your pets safe, the cold temps are coming up. Not all pets have big bushy feathers like my ducks.