The cold air is not going away, as another cold front will keep highs only in the mid 30s on Tuesday followed by teens on Wednesday morning. As for Wednesday night after midnight, that’s when the tricks start!
I think Justin did a great job of explaining the ins and outs of trying to forecast past 2 days with the models. Keep all of his intelligent comments in mind as I give you the latest.
The models are all in agreement on the formation of a Gulf low that would bring precip in after midnight Wednesday night. It should begin as snow or a snow sleet mixture, but then change to a mix of rain/sleet/snow during the daytime hours as temps warm to upper 30s. Then the precip will change back to snow again Thursday night through Friday morning. This forecast is for 2 and 1/2 to 3 days out, so bear in mind that things could change. As Justin says, a lot depends on the track of the low.
That’s the way it looks for now, and we’ll update with the latest day by day.
Well, this looks to be a bit colder than all of the previous storms. But with the last six or seven winters disappointments, I am still not a believer. The pessimistic one in me says the warm advection comes in and it rains all Thursday. I hope I am wrong
Anyway, the last good snow I remember was the “Daytona 500″ snow in 03 or 04. We got 6 inches and the temperature never got below 37..
I can’t even remember a good snow for the “Nashville” (DavCo/WilCo) area in some time now… It does seem like everyone else gets it. Remember the “Big One” from last year? They forecasted a good snow for everybody and then the warm air came up (up 65 it seemed) and this localized area only got maybe a dusting in the end. The rain overcame the snow! Others around these counties got much more. I was disappointed. My sister and her family even drove up from B’Ham that night to show her kids a real snow. All they got the next morning in South Franklin was some muddy sledding and a 1′ snowman! Maybe this one will be different, but I start to doubt ANY snow forecasts as these years go on… As many have said earlier, it’s the ones that AREN’T predicted that HAPPEN. LOL. I guess we’ll see yet again…
James Spanns’ analysis is VERY interesting. It’s a must watch! go to Alabamawx.com
I agree, I like what the Japanese model had to say. That storm last year was a bummer! Heavy Snow Warning this, 4-8 inches that. We barely got 3! Surely we can’t keep getting nothing..
As you all know, I am extremely skeptical about these events happening and whatnot…
*BUT* someone, I think, may get up to 6″ from this storm.
I’m just going by gut because I haven’t seen the models…my gut will change.
We stand a chance of WAA with that warm nose of air, like last time. The question remains, “Will it be enough to raise the temperatures to 32.01°?” We’ll find out…but for right now my guess is no…
I like the idea that it starts snowing after midnight Wednesday and everything will stick b/c the ground is so cold and then the Thursday high will be bumped down b/c of all the snow cover and it snows all day Thursday and Thursday night.
We can’t be wrong EVERY time about snow, it will happen eventually.
Amen to that. Keep talking, I like it
There’s a huge circle around the moon tonight; can someone remind me what that means? Anyone?
ok indications for sunday night and monday i heard that it will be even a stonger system then this one coming up for late wednesday night thru thursday.im keeping a watch on the gfs models etc.any thoughts on this
FYI lucifer, I’m a guy (Tracy is a male or females name). I guess he’s off his game tonight with all the cold weather.
ooh. the NAM is really looking warm this run :/ that’s not good.
Hi Tracy
The Lore states that a halo around the moon indicates that moisture is coming. Whether it is rain or snow, of course depends on the temps.
There is an old adage that also states:
Red sky in the morning, Sailor take warning (meaning storms/rain)
Red Sky at night, Sailor’s delight (meaning we will have clear skies that day)
Just an interesting bit of Folk Lore.
Also Folk Lore states that if smoke from your chimney, it will snow. This is due to the barometric pressure falling (I think?) Not much of a weather guru…LOL
When you see a spider’s web, note the distance it is from the ground. The higher up it is, the harsher the winter. Also the thickness of the bark on the trees is an indicator of the winter weather to come.
~Gina~
*if smoke from your chimney falls to the ground*
LOL…brain works faster than fingers sometimes…so sorry
~Gina~
Hey, I have posted a potenial, non exagerated, snowfall map. I also explain why I am taking nothing from GFS or NAM. Click my name.
Hey guys!
I (like most of the mets) am in between a rock and a hard place. The NAM was SO much warmer, there won’t be any snow within a hundred (probably more) miles from here. You can look at it, or ignore the models. If you feel the NAM is a good indications…put thoughts of winter wx away and think tunderstorms…the only thing frozen fallin from the sky would be hail…seriously…it’s that bad of a run. I will be curious to see if the GFS follows suite…
Hey Satan what would you say if your son or daughter read what you typed? Dude, grow up!
I say toss these runs out with the garbage. There is no way we will warm up that much.
I DON’T CARE what the NAM and GFS says. I guarantee you that the low will be painted father north or south by Tomorrow Night. Remember, It was 15 degrees in D-town Nashville this Morning.
like i said last night guys your all going to be bumed out because it is not going to snow.and davis how do you get mad about a clever screen name but say nothing about Jasons foul mouthed insults aimed at females on this site
hey clay,
for some reason i can’t see your map! could you briefly describe to me what you’re predicting? thanks! - Cam
Try it now.
Still didn’t work for me…
CRAP!!! It works on mine. Wait just a minute.
works for me.
Try again.
hey cameron, just cut and paste the URL into your address bar. works fine that way
Its over guys. Snow ain’t happenin.
If we can’t get snow with this kind of artic air, I don’t think we’ll ever see snow again.
got it! thanks Clay…and Eric…sounds too good to be true…but sounds reasonable..”for now”
How surprising is that downgrade? I’ll tell ya what — I think I’ll stick to my “no big snow for another couple years at least” prediction I posted in a previous blog. Oh, and before everyone starts jumping all over me for the “negativeness” (that a word?), I’m well aware of how quickly weather can change here, but it hasn’t been changing for the good lately and I’m starting to get the feeling this next system won’t be any different. I wish it were, but not looking good once again! Again, just my opinion.
Peace
I think the models are wrong.
I still have a feeling we’re going to get 3-4″ on Wednesday Night/Thursday. Shoot me if I’m wrong, but I think they have the track of the low wrong.
I say mostly snow for middle Tennessee.
We will in this pattern. I’m 99.99 % sure. What about that other .01%? Metal error.
*mental*
I may be backing you up on that one, Keith.
New to the area, I know that in the south 20 miles can make a difference in frozen precip and wet precip. Living in Clarksville now — is the weather in Nashville typically mirrored up here.
John
I hope you are sooo right Keith and Clay!
How hard is it to be a forcaster? Where’s the accoutability that everyone wants in other professions? Just make a guess and if you are wrong blame it on the weather. I’m surprised more people don’t apply for the position.