As I mentioned this morning, areas north and east of Nashville are enjoying a few flurries this morning. The NWS Middle Tennessee radar shows the action - it looks worse than it actually is; no problems are anticipated. Perhaps some of our blog readers can leave comments if they see more flakes flying today. There will be some breaks in the cloud cover from time to time, but the cold air and strong northwest winds are the big deal today.

Morning temperatures are a far cry from yesterday’s highs in the middle 50s - we’re down in the 20s with wind chills in the teens. Here’s the link to check current Tennessee temperatures. We’ll hover in the middle to upper 20s the rest of the day, courtesy of a northwest wind at 10 to 20 mph with occasional gusts near 30 mph this afternoon. It should be mostly cloudy and that won’t help it feel any warmer!

There are some flurries this morning…mainly in southern Kentucky and the northeast corner of Middle Tennessee. Places like Lafayette, Celina, Byrdstown, Gainesboro, Livingston, Jamestown, Cookeville and Crossville should see some of those flurries this morning.

The clouds should clear tonight while the winds slacken just a bit. The perfect recipe for very cold conditions - down in the teens by Monday morning. I think I’ll dress in layers and bring some hot coffee for those live shots tomorrow on News 2 This Morning!

We are still calling for some rain showers to change over to snow showers late tonight. As we mentioned yesterday, the lack of moisture, and the fast movement of this system will limit the amounts. I am now only calling for a dusting of snow in a few spots, with most of us just seeing the snow fly in the air late tonight and the first half of Sunday. The higher elevations of eastern Middle Tennessee have a better chance for seeing whitening of the ground, and maybe up to an inch on the Plateau.

The real word is COLD! Check out the temps on the way by CLICKING HERE.

The 7 Day outlook is interesting, as well. The AVN/GFS shows a cold beginning to the week, with a warm up bringing rain by Friday. However, the Canadian model called the CMC brings more cold air in with a major snow Wednesday night through Thursday. To see the AVN/GFS CLICK HERE, and to see the CMC CLICK HERE. For both pass your mouse across the times at the top of the screen.

Lots to talk about with big weather changes looming over the next 24 hours. Morning temperatures range from the 20s to the lower 40s. Sunshine will send the numbers to the 50s this afternoon; our last mild day for a long time. A few rain showers are possible this afternoon, but the activity should be spotty. As cold air rushes in this evening a few snow showers may develop. The limiting factor will be the available moisture - the models have downplayed that part of the forecast in the latest runs. See the map below for the details.

I’m most confident about all of the cold air that will cover the nation this week. It will be difficult to pinpoint the timing of weather systems in this cold and fast pattern; right now it looks like the end of the work week (Thursday or Friday) may bring another opportunity for snow showers.

I promised that I would come up with my estimates of any kind of snow accumulation for overnight Saturday night through Sunday A.M.

Justin and I have been brainstorming (Justin’s day off but we had a “conference call”), and there are several factors to take into account:

1) Moisture doesn’t arrive until late and may be limited.

2) The system will be moving very fast.

Expect some rain showers to push in towards sunset, with a change over to snow in the 9pm-midnight time frame. Very cold air will be “gushing” into the mid state, so if we can get something to fall, it should be able to cause a whitening of the ground. As usual, some of our counties to the east, especially the Plateau and Monteagle, could see more, maybe an inch. All in all, it’s not “the big one” but if we can get a dusting that will be more than most of us have seen so far this winter.

The cold air will be significant. We may not get above freezing on Sunday with northwest winds 15-25 mph putting wind chills in the teens.

We’re getting ahead of ourselves. Saturday should be mild with highs in the mid 50s before rain pushes in near sunset and then the falling temps Saturday night with rain changing to snow.

My Friday forecast post.

The forecast calls for some rain late Saturday afternoon or early evening as a disturbance currently in West Texas moves our way. Southwest breezes today, tonight and tomorrow should set the stage for highs around 50 degrees on Saturday. The big questions for tomorrow evening and tomorrow night: how quickly will we cool off and how long will the moisture linger? News 2’s Predictor suggests a change from rain to sleet or wet snowflakes by Saturday evening, and then a transition to snow by Saturday night.

As a snow lover I sure hope that Predictor is correct - but my experience makes me hesitant to think that the snow will pile up tomorrow night. The cold air will move in very quickly late tomorrow as the leading edge of the well-advertised late January chill finally arrives. I just think that with daytime temperatures around 50 degrees and a rain-soaked ground…most of the flakes will have a tough time sticking. The chance looks a little better east of I-65 where the moisture lingers longer Saturday night while the cold air sweeps into the mid-state. Check back with Davis for an update this afternoon.

Snow lovers, take heart: as very cold air settles across the nation next week we’ll have additional (and better) opportunities for an accumulating snow. Perhaps Tuesday as an upper level disturbance dives in from the northwest…and then another disturbance Wednesday or Thursday moving to our south could set the stage for the first good dose of white weather in a couple of years. We’ll be watching this closely and posting our thoughts. At this time it’s too early to tell the particulars of next week’s snow opportunities…

Quite cold this morning; temperatures are down in the teens and 20s during the pre-dawn hours. Winds are light this morning but will shift to the southwest by midday. Those winds (at 5 to 10 mph) will couple with sunshine to send temperatures above average for the first time in a while. I think we’ll reach the upper 40s in most spots, and lower 50s in the southwest corner of the mid-state where the “mild” breezes kick in earlier today.

Lows tonight will be dip to the lower 30s, but we should rebound to the lower 50s on Saturday thanks to persistent southwest winds. Clouds will be on the increase through the day and a few rain showers should arrive by evening. The rain should change to some sleet and then wet snowflakes by Saturday night. I’ll be anxious to talk with Davis later this morning and discuss tomorrow’s precipitation type. I’m not all that impressed at the chances of much accumulating snow in Nashville; I’ll post more Predictor images and discuss my thoughts a little later this morning.

The overnight NAM / WRF model is out, and it shows a pretty good chance for at least some light accumulation late Saturday night through early Sunday morning. If you look at the panels above valid midnight (6z) Saturday night / Sunday morning, you can see the Gulf low passing to our south. The bottom panel shows 6 hour precipitation (unfortunately in millimeters) and the freezing line at 4-5,000 ft. The precip will have begun as rain and changed to snow, so that has to be taken into account.

I will begin forecasting how much accumulation tomorrow (2 days out), but I think we may have some. Right now, it looks “light” but we’ll update. Either way, we’re looking at late Saturday night through Sunday morning.

As mentioned before, we’ll be warming up between now and then, with rain by Saturday afternoon.

In the long range, that “clipper” still looks promising for some snow showers on Tuesday, while the AVN / GFS
shows chances on Thursday, and the CMC still brings snow in on Wednesday (AVN / GFS keeps precip south on Wednesday). These models will flip around, but the cold air will be in place, so it won’t take much.

After a cold night with temps falling to the low to mid 20s (teens on the Plateau), a southwesterly breeze should push temps up to near 50 by Friday afternoon. On Saturday, we’ll still see 50s with rain pushing in during the afternoon hours. Overnight Saturday night a cold arctic blast will push in causing the rain to end in some snow. We’ll watch that closely, as there will be a low skirting the Gulf Coast. It’s too early to tell, but if that moisture from that low extends a little farther north, it could cause an accumulation. Again, it’s too early to tell.

Notice the temps in Alaska in the picture above. That’s the air mass that’s heading southward. Of course, temps will modify somewhat as the air mass pushes southward, I don’t expect us to rise above freezing on Sunday.

In the 7 Day forecast, the cold air stays in place all of next week. We’ll have to keep our eyes peeled. Models show a “clipper” expected to pass by on Tuesday, and two Gulf lows, one on Wednesday, and another Thursday night. The GFS keeps Wednesday’s low too far south, while the CMC (Canadian model) brings snow in on Wednesday. Then the GFS shows the Thursday night low bringing snow into Middle Tennessee.

As you all know, these models are likely to change their solutions for the 3-7 day range, so this is all just a preliminary look ahead.

However, once you get the cold air in place for a decent period of time, it won’t take much to bring snow. The details remain to be seen!