A meteorologist’s mind is usually consumed with forecast-related thoughts, even after clocking out of the station. My continual stares skyward surprise those that don’t know me (”aren’t you finished working today?”). I’d like to call it dedication, but it’s more a fear of the forecast not coming to fruition. Even on quiet weather days we question the sky cover (mostly sunny or all the way sunny?) the temperature (44 degrees or 45 degrees?) the wind (5 to 10 mph, or just 10 mph?).
Big forecast busts are few and far between (we don’t forget them) but it’s rare to nail a forecast in every aspect day to day. Jeff and I track the accuracy of our morning forecasts and we’re pleased with where we stand, but even on our most accurate days a small part of me usually wants to turn back the clock and change some minute forecast detail.
Today’s minor forecast headaches include the degree to which the clouds thin out and how quickly that process occurs. The cloud cover (or lack thereof) will have a direct impact on the afternoon temperature - the numbers lagged behind this morning but we hope there’s a quick jump during the early afternoon now that the sky is brightening over Davidson County. Given that I have the next couple of days off though…I don’t think I’ll lose too much nap time over today’s forecast!
Heh! I’d like to see the hecklers going, “You said 7-12 mph! We had 9-14 mph! You suck!”
Get him or her off there PLEASE!!!!!
Have a GREAT couple days off Justin.
I was being sarcastic. Yeesh.
I support the mets here. They really don’t deserve the bashing they get.
That is to much off. You should be hung and wipped for your offage.
CHANNEL 2 YALL ROCK!!!!!!!!! I WATCH YALLS FORCAST EVERY DAY.KEEP UP THE GREAT WORK!!!!!!!!!
Don’t forget to read the January 16, 2003 snowstorm analysis, if you haven’t already. I worked hard on it. Should be a nice read. Click my name to go there.
okay already……….
Here we go again…
from the Climate Prediction Center-
For Monday January 29 - Friday February 02: A massive Arctic air mass, one of the most extensive seen in recent years, is expected to overspread much of the eastern two-thirds of the Nation during the first half of this period, with at least one reinforcing cold outbreak in the latter part of this period. Although model runs differ on the timing and exact location, it is likely that a storm moving along the southern boundary of the cold air will produce a significant precipitation event consisting of mainly a hazardous wintry mix from northeastern Texas across the interior South with heavy snow possible from the mid-Altnatic States to New England. Some uncertainty is introduced by the fact that although it predicts a significant system across the South, the latest 12z GFS operational model run does not bring heavy precipitation north of the Carolinas.
Another good outfit Lisa. Great Blue!
It appears to be another interesting setup over the next 5 to 6 days.
I’ll be watching closely to see how it is going to change as we get closer.
We’ve been on the warm side of the coin every single time…maybe this time, we’ll be colder with more precipitation!!
It’s fun to WISH for the big snow!
Wooo with the way everyone is talking it sounds like its going to get cold! Im really excited! But lets hope a big snow maker meets with that cold air. But anyways, hope everyone has a great night.
Hey is that big blob moving toward us from southern illinois…real? lmfao
i think that large mass of wintry precip in illionis is moving currently in our direction. this may be an ineresting night.
Does anyone have thoughts on why the NWS site is still showing us under a mix and or snow for tomorrow evening and Thursday when everyone else seems to have removed that from their forecast?
I don’t know it looks like it’s going to pass by our north but lol wow
maybe they just dont know but i’ve always thought news 2 and all local stations got thier forecast from nws but i think we really could see some snow in our area tomorrow night but very light snow MAYBE a coating on roads and all places outdoors if were lucky.
If anyone gets a chance, take a look at James Spann’s video blog at alabamawx.com. He says some very “interesting” things concerning the upcoming cold weather. I’m not going to spoil it for anyone, listen for yourself.
it hink we could possibly be some flurries but with limited moisture its kind of iffy
I think James is awesome! Kind of like Andy said earlier in this blog about the mets on the net, they seems to tell you what they are really thinking and it helps us learn alot about the forecasting process. I just hope we can get some moisture with all this cold air or what good is it anyway? That picture of Gulf Shores was making me wonder why I wish for snow anyway…
Hey wow I just looked at that big blob of light snow in Illinois and it looks like it took a right turn
Or rather, it just is moving quicker south than I saw at first.
LOL We are so snow poor!! Most of that stuff up there is Virga anyways… BUT HEY WE CAN HOPE HUH?? LOL
Well I like the fact it is going to be really cold, but have you all noticed that everywhere is prediciting a totally dry period for Mid-TN over the next 15 days……even family in Canada are having a hard time getting any decent snow precipitation in Calgary and they normal have no issues with get some.
I’ve got a new GFS Model analysis on the TN WX Zone.
Nice read!
CHECK IT OUT!