Most of the computer models we use to create a forecast are run four times per day. In this difficult weather pattern, the same model might yield four different solution in 24 short hours! The models have oscillated from a cold to warm solution between this morning and midday. Disappointing for snow lovers, but hope is not lost. It’s important not to get caught up in the run-to-run details and keep your eye on the big picture.
Below is tomorrow’s predicted upper air pattern. Two things to point out: a big disturbance diving through the Midwest will bring cold northwest winds and reinforce the chill tomorrow. We might even squeeze out a few flurries. The second, more important feature is off the Southern California coast in the image below. That upper air disturbance will swing east and cause a surface low to develop late Wednesday through Thursday. The low pressure will pass south of Tennessee but the exact track remains uncertain. The particular path of that surface low will determine what type of precipitation we get on Thursday.
The late morning model runs suggest that the surface low pressure will move from Houston to Birmingham. That’s farther north (and warmer) than the early morning models had predicted. Again, it’s important to not get caught up in the run-to-run details of the computer models. The upper air disturbance that will kick start our mid-week system is roughly 2,000 miles away! I think we’ll see more model flip-flopping in the next few days…so stay tuned to the blog and our television forecasts for the latest thinking.
Lol Heath that will be good for me cause i live right on the boarder of Alabama.
Got to love that low of 88 on Monday morning haha. Nice type, or is it that old Nashville heat island.
I still think if we get an inch or 2 overnight wed. the temps will not rise.
Also is 1,000 feet in elevation a big difference from the 350 that nashville is at…..cause hohenwald where i live is 1,000+ in elevation
People talk about cookville being elevated but…..hohenwald is just like 50 feet different
NWS now saying snow with a little sleet….but mostly snow! Guess there is gonna be a little more cold air aloft….and their temps are coming down too
Not to bust anyone’s bubble but most of all of the forecasters,including NWS, trend to the snow changing over to rain. As the system moves east and pulls in warmer air. If that is the case I hope it does not snow. Cause snow changing over to rain is worse thing ever. Watching the snow just get washed away in a big sloppy mess.
Now we really are jinxed.
Alex I just see snow mixed with sleet…not rain…maybe thats cause i live in hohenwald
Hey Gabe. I live in Nashville, but on the Nashville Rim. Elevations around 1000 feet. Its quite a pretty view on top of the hill.
From Mr. James Spann down at ABC 33/40 in Birmingham….
(edited for length)
*Much of the nation will be flooded with very cold air in the next two weeks (in some cases, the coldest air in one or two decades)
*”Most of the snow from this system will come Wednesday night and Thursday morning along and north of U.S. 72, especially north of the Tennessee border. The I-40 corridor could see several inches of snow, including Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, and Asheville.”
“As always, this could, and probably will change during the next 24 to 36 hours… stay tuned.”
http://www.alabamawx.com
~hold on to your hats, it’s SHOWTIME!
Also, if the system is moving to our south, why does Hopkinsville Ky have a greater chance of precip than we do here? They have 70% Wed night and 80% Thursday.
pretty much if you live in any outside suburb of nashville, you will be at least 200-300 feet higher. but gabe, i totally agree with you on the whole elevation thing. at first, i didn’t think a difference of 600-700 feet would make much of a difference. but last february when most areas in nashville were getting rain, due to that infamous “wave of warmer area” riding up I-65, where i was living at the time south and east of town (elevation: 936 ft) had two inches on the ground. anyway, like i said earlier, i’m not making any bets or plans until the 24 hour marker (tomorrow night)…if everything starts headin’ in our favor, i’ll be racing to nashville from mobile wednesday afternoon. i’ll tell the people at my church here in mobile to pray that the low heads towards them and not towards birmingham! lol!
Read the special weather statement. It says the snow will gradually change over to a mix or just rain on Thursday. The models have been trending to this too.
Yeah….i remember that storm. Here in hohenwald we got 3 inches….while columbia(just 30 miles east) with an elevation about 500 feet lower got rain. Funny thing is our local METS don’t forecast it that way….they just lump southern middle tennessee all together. But 950-1000 feet makes a difference
Hey alex…those guys also said yesterday it would not negoin until friday night….so sorry if i dont trust that info too much. Also i was reading another forecast where it says most snow will be between nashville and highway 72 around huntsville alabama…everybody has different forecasts right now.
Rob I know all that about the GFS and the warm winds. I’m just analyzing the 18z model run. I know that 18z is the least accurate but also think that it will be hard to get too much snow in southern counties.
Ok…ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE. EVerything is up in the air right now…. I have an opinion right now but it could change,a more definitive forecast will come by tomorrows models.
once again….don’t lump all south counties together…some of us are over 1,000 feet in elevation
Yes yall got to remeber they were not forecasting anything big yesterday but now look whats in the mix. Weather changes in a blink of an eye. They cant pinpoint were a tornado is going to hit so what makes you think they can pinpoint were snow is going to hit. We just got to watch and see damit!!!!! All hale satan lord of darkness!!!! Hes in control
What elevation is Hermitage/Mt. Juliet area?
Not even Satin is that ignorant. perhaps you need to get a life. Maybe you should find another outlet for your jealousy. Afterall, hatred is a by product of jealousy.
Ok, so it’s looking like we are going to get some kind of winter precip., finally! Of course it will be along the I-40 line to the north, always is!! I think Rutherford, Williamson, and Davidson county have this anti-snow bubble around them every winter. It always seems to snow above, below, and beside these three counties, but never in these counties. I’ve been doing my snow dance, and I’ve got my fingers crossed this time we get something!!! LET IT SNOW
What does the Farmer’s Almanac say for this week?
mine says flurries.
Whoever posted in my name earlier….remember, immitation is the most sincere from of flattery…..thanks!
Heath…Mt. Juliet is close to 600 feet. wheras nashvile is around 450.
For the Channel 2 Mets:
What weather event occurred on January 28, 1951? I read an article about falling temps and a memorable weather event but that was all that was mentioned. Was it an ice storm that hit Middle Tennessee on that date? Thanks
Meghan, I can remember 3 winters ago when i lived in Antioch, it did snow a complete circle around my house. My ground did not get covered a single time that winter. But the rest of Middle Tennessee got snow at some point.
The Great Ice Storm of 1951. Now go and google it.
My updated Snow analysis at MTEC is hot of the press, if anybody wants to check it out
MTWC, I mean.