Here’s a glimpse at one aspect of the GFS computer model. You’re looking at the 500 millibar level which is up around 18,000 feet. Dips in the jet stream bring cold air and that will be the big story the next few weeks. The image is valid this evening.
The next image is valid next Monday January 29th and illustrates the colder air that shows up later this weekend into next week.
The final image is valid Sunday morning February 3rd and shows the crux of the coldest air pouring into the country from Canada. Brrrrrr…
As we discussed yesterday all this cold weather talk is a prediction, and not a guarantee. That said…nearly all of the tools we utilize to paint the extended forecast picture point to very cold air across a very large part of the country in the coming weeks.
Would you explain the blue,green and red line?
Are the lines temperature contrasts like cool,cold,coldest?
Balena..I can’t be REAL sure, but I think the green line might be the freezing line…
But this model goes higher up in the atmosphere than the ones I BARELY know how to read…so I shrug and wait.
You are probably right,that makes sense.
Whatever those lines mean, it is gonna be cold here in South Central Ky. It was so cold yesteday I got a headache from being outside. Of course, as my family tells me, with a head like that, I would worry if it didnt hurt!!!!
Andy, that’s what I tell my boys too…”A head like that oughta hurt, it’s killin’ me!!”
hee hee…
I believe that roughly the red line is 10 celsius, the green is 0 (or freezing) and the blue is ten below (roughly 12 farenheit).
We are going to have a rough first half of Februaury at least if what the mets are saying is true,hope snow comes along with it.Snow would make it not so bad unless it is below freezing,too cold!
I guess that sums it up people what the lines mean.Now we have use for the fire wood we collected last summer.Money saver!
The lines on the 500mb GFS above are heights in decameters. For instance if the 500mb level is 5600 meters over sea level it’s expressed as 560 on the chart.
Well it also looks like a temperature difference.If you go to http://weather.unisys.com/,that is what it looks like.
It shows the GFS 10 day forscast.
I meant forcast,can’t spell.lol
mb (millibars) measures pressure…i’m guessing the chart is showing the different pressure gradients that they show from time to time on the air with the tightly-packed lines indicating areas of great pressure differences, thus, strong winds.
500mb height is used to depict tropospheric steering currents (troughs and ridges) that drive the longwave pattern. This is the pattern that shallower shortwaves follow. Generally drives the weather. For us troughs allow colder air from Canada in and ridges allow warmer air from the South. That’s the elementary version.
And it’s the point in the atmosphere where the 500mb pressure level occurs - e.g. 5600 meters above sea level or 560dm (decameters)
Wednesday Night, Jan 31
Low: 20 °F RealFeel®: 24 °F
Cold with snow much of the time
Wishful thinking
We just saw someting really cool outside in the sky. There seemed to be somewhat of a half rainbow over the sun,we tried to take a picture but the sun was way to bright for it to show up. Just curious if anyone else had saw it and maybe if they knew what it was we live in the Boro area. It didn’t look like a regular rainbow it almost seemed crooked in the sky. Maybe just maybe its a sign to pack the pantry get toilet paper and get ready for 1 foot of SNOW!!!
Probably the sun shining through high cirrus clouds. High cirrus clouds are mostly ice crystals anyway.
Still can’t. It’s forecast.
“I meant forcast,can’t spell.lol
Posted by: Balena at January 24, 2007 01:13 PM”
Still can’t. It’s forecast.
“I meant forcast,can’t spell.lol
Posted by: Balena at January 24, 2007 01:13 PM”
I just saw that too tjcharlene!!! I took a picture…
Gotta check how it turned out…
Ok Mr. “T”.Enough making fun,no one is perfect.
Ok Mr. “T”.Enough making fun,no one is perfect.
want a good laugh…..go to accueather and see where they forecast 20 degrees next wed. night with a MIX of rain and snow….LOL
Accuweather is a bunch of nutcases that are InAccurate.Don’t see how they are still in service,they need to change their name.
Like someone said last week, Accuweather is Weathertainment. I think their site is just for laughs myself. But that rainbow everyone is seeing is the high thin clouds with the ice crystals reflecting in sun to make that “rainbow” you can most always see one on a high cloudy day. Really neat I think.
We need an update on the F-o-r-e-c-a-s-t.
The GFS shows February 2nd, 7th, and 8th are our best chance for snow. The 7th and 8th looks better with that low going to our north through Missouri and Illinois but the 7th and 8th is so far away that a lot can change. On the off chance it stays the same, I’ll tell you what, it will be a big time winter snow storm for somebody. Have a look your self and find out who that somebody is. What are your thoughts on the 2nd, 7th, and 8th of Feb everyone?.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/index_slp_m_loop.shtml
Sorry that link doesn’t work. Try this one.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/index_slp_m_loop.shtml
It cut it off again…i’ll try one more time
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/index_slp_m_loop.shtml
sorry!
They look the same.
tjcharlene,
I can’t reply to your message but if you click on my name again I have it posted. Use the magnifying glass and it will enlarge a bit.
Sorry it keeps cuting it off when I post, it’s beyond my control.
What’s up with snow in the forecast for tonight and in the morning (flurries) over parts of middle tn??
The 18z is playing up the weekend precipitation event. Although amounts are not great, it appears the potential exists for an inch or so of accum’s. I’d love to hear the opinion of the Channel 2 mets. I am aware that BNA is downplaying this event extrodinarily. They may just are wanting to be on the cautious side; however, several models are on baord with a wintery event this weekend. The best I can tell, the NWS forecast is issued a few hours before the run of the 18z.
ok folks next week there will be a huge winterstorm coming thursday thru sat morning and could dump over a foot of snow for middle tn