Morning temperatures are very cold, down in the teens and single digits. Winds are calm or light, but any hint of a breeze sends wind chills down toward zero or below zero. Check current temperatures here. Morning sun will yield to thickening high clouds as the day progresses. Highs will be in the middle to upper 30s.
I’m guessing you don’t give two hoots about today’s forecast. Everyone’s looking ahead to Thursday and the potential for wintry precipitation. Here’s the general thinking for Nashville:
There are many things we need to keep in mind for tomorrow’s event. This will not be an all-snow event; we’ll contend with snow to start tomorrow morning, then a mix of rain and sleet, followed by a little more light snow to finish the event Thursday night and Friday morning.
It looks like snow will accumulate early tomorrow morning across the central and northern sections of Middle Tennessee. We think 1″ will be a good accumulation to shoot for Thursday morning in Nashville. Southern sections of the mid-state will fight with some warmer air aloft and that will mean more of a mix than plain ol’ snow to start. Northern sections (north of I-40) of the mid-state (and southern Kentucky) will have the cold air but will be on the northern periphery of the moisture. Welcome to winter weather prediction in Tennessee!
We think there will be a change from snow to light rain late Thursday morning and afternoon as surface temperatures climb into the middle 30s. The action will be light as the morning batch of precipitation pulls eastward. A second round of moisture arrives Thursday evening/night through Friday morning. That should start as rain or a mix before transitioning back to light snow to finish the event.
We’ll keep you updated this morning; join Jeff and me for team weather coverage this morning on the air…
This seems to be a change from yesterday…I’d say a big decrease in hope (am I wrong Justin…I could be). In fact, the NWS seems to be very unimpressed. They say snow starting at 6am…all rain by 9am? Memphis now says an all snow/ice event. Also, why no weather advisories if we are less than 24 hours from an event?
Lisa’s “latest” predictor from 10pm last night paints a much different picture than what’s being said this morning…yet, I don’t see a big change in high temperatures (actually one degree).
Overall…why no advisories & what the sudden change?
Justin,
I really feel for you guys. Look at how predictor changed for Lisa in such a short period of time…..
Guess we will have to go with the AccuWindow tomorrow morning!
Justin, how many times has the forecast changed since we first began blogging on the subject?
all the weather people are getting paid by off by kroger!
nothing really has changed technically…the transition to sleet/rain was always in the forecast…NWS usually doesn’t paint a 100% accurate hour by hour forecast of what will happen. again, timing and elevation play a role. some places will be 2-3 degrees colder than nashville which will be a plus for those not in the basin. anyway, i’m not losing hope. winter weather advisories to the south…only a matter of time before NOAA/NWS issues something for central TN…
I hope those Kroger kickbacks are in my next paycheck; they still owe me money from last winter!
I’ll have another post later on the winter hysteria later this morning…
Yeah Justin, they should owe you BIG TIME from all those Sno-Balls I bought during February last year..
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
So Food Lion and Publix not showin’ the kick-back LOVE yet, huh?
LOL Servo!! Yeah Justin should be a pretty rich.. Those “kickbacks” really do come in handy. But anyways, Im in a hurry up and wait mode again as I have been for most of the winter. But everyone sit tight and look out your window tonight starting around 11pm…
Even a day before and still they can’t get the forecast right
I believe back in November, God stamped a label on us that read “No snow this winter”.
Hi guys, I’m in Detroit.
there is about 3 inches of snow on the ground. Not packing snow just sleding snow.
So I see there is some snow in the forecast for middle TN, hope it tuns out good. I’ll be sticking around on the blog for a while
We haven’t had a good snow here in 3 years. It’s definitely time! Right Trey?
Ok…where is my $20 bucks I put up 2 days ago
We will be moisture starved up this way 
I always look at what the farmers almanac has to say about the weather, I know that it is not always right. But at least it does give hope for some snow in February. We will just have to wait and see….. Hope the event for tonight pans out in a favor.
Now this is what the almanac says:
February 2007
1st-3rd. A few showers, then turning fair, colder. 4th-7th. Generally fair, chilly days, cold nights, widespread frost; chilly in Miami for Super Bowl XLI. 8th-11th. Snow Tennessee, mountains North Carolina. Mixed snow, sleet, rain parts of northern Mississippi, Alabama. Chilly rain south. Clearing, turning very cold all sections by the 11th, with frosts northern and central Florida. 12th-15th. Wet weather, then fair skies. 16th-19th. Fair weather continues. 20th-23rd. Snow Tennessee, parts of North Carolina, with possible accumulations. 24th-28th. Showery, then fair, colder, widespread frosts.
Hope everyone has a good day, and please do a snow dance….
Well, I tried a little something equally as accurate: I asked my Magic 8 Ball!! It’s answer?? “Signs say YES”
I am just tired of th eforecast changing every 2 seconds…..i remember this was the forecast in 2004 and i got 7 inches…….So i don’tknow what to think.
I think that for the southern counties this could get really bad.If the precepataion falls in the form of freezing rain and sleet would could possible get a good little ice storm, but wouldn’t with the ice and snow accumalating on the ground keep the temp down and around freezing for most of the day? I guess will see what happens. Its all up to the big guy. But, LET IT SNOW LET IT SNOW LET IT SNOW
We are in hurry up and wait mode folks…
So try and find something to stay busy if you can.
Believe it or not…I forgot to get milk yesterday at the store and have to get it…UGH!!! I may just run to Dollar General.
let’s all do a snow dance. TX has had more snow than we have, but i know it’s not our weather guys fault.If it were up to them, we would be surfing in snow…SURFS-UP……..
NWS must be tihnking about what advisories to give us….North Alabama already has a WWA
I am still holding out for that 1-2 inches of snow the NWS is saying I am gonna get will keep the temps down just a bit longer and that the precipitation break in the afternoon will come before the temps can rise.
I also hope hohenwald’s 1,000 elevation helps me out a little as much as it can…
Once again, I’m gonna say if it starts snowing at 26, colder in the outline areas, I don’t think it has to start snowing at 26.
AMEN SERVO! Im trying to stay busy around the house here but can’t help but look at the forcasts every 20 mins LOL!!
And I am holding out hopes that the frozen ground keeps any snow that falls before daybreak, thus lowering the high temp on Thursday (by 1 or 2 degrees) and keeping it all snow. We have to remember that there won’t be much moisture in this system anway.
Plus, Sparky’s(my Welsh Corgi/Terrier)left ear was leaning a bit due north this morning and that usually means snow (USUALLY!).
Hey guys, Hopefully we will get a BIG burst of SNOW and have some on the ground before sunrise on Thursday that should help to keep our temps down some. I just really hope we do not get any ice. Maybe this snow event will turn out like the one in 03 if I remember correctly the forecasted amount seemed similar to this one and we wound up with about five inches in only a couple hours. I know its a long shot but we’ve gotta have hope. LOL
Sorry I ment to say, Once again, I’m gonna say if it starts snowing at 26,then we won’t climb up to the middle 30’s. That’s just my opinion.
Don’t forget it might be colder in outline areas too.
The clouds are coming in a little faster than expected…
I am NO LONGER using models extensively. Right now we need to look at ground observations, current upper air soundings, and OCCASIONALLY models.
We are now within 18 hours of the event. Our forecast guesses are no longer the best guesses we can make…let’s rely on observations 45%, soundings 40%, models 8%, and instinct 7%.
Last years snowstorm that got dashed because of the wedge of warm air that unexpectedly came up I-65, that was NOT a mets error. There was simply a reason that it wasn’t meant to happen. Sometimes conditions are right, but there is a reason God prevents it from happening.
Don’t blame God for global warming.
Can we talk about the global warming another day? This is the wrong time. Good point, but wrong time.
Kailyn is on today. I bet you it starts to snow early tonight and not in the morning. The system is moving faster than thought and you know the mets donot want to say anything about that. This would cause a mass nashville traffic jam. What fun!!!!!!!!!!
I think this is moving faster. Look at Arkansa right now. Also the satellite and radar is showing this thing mushrooming. Does anyone else feel this way? Also, temps are not rising rapidly in bright sunshine. What are your thoughts?
That would cause an instant flash back to 2003. The horror stories!!!
Hope springs eternal! I would much rather see snow than ice. Here’s to a good 3 inches or so…:)
NWS forecast has been updated.
Tonight says “Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.”
Tomorrow says “Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.”
Why has a WWA not been issued with a 100% chance in the forecast? Why is everyone so quiet?
The main energy for this storm has yet to really kick out of the southwest yet. If it doesn’t get itself transferring some energy, this whole thing could be a bust.
I am starting to worry a bit…
I’m not worried at current temperatures; it’s not 10 am yet. I am worried about clouds. Under the clouds wet bulbs are rising and temperatures are not really going up that much…
Uh-oh…if my inkling is anywhere close to right…this could (*could*) be a repeat of 2003 on a smaller scale…
Not trying to cause chaos, because it’s a stretch, but I think this potentially poses a threat to the forecast. Temperatures are lower; already Dallas has light freezing rain and snow at 32°.
Not sure about the NWS watches/advisories/etc. I’m sure something will be issued soon if it hasn’t already.
To be honest, I pay attention to that stuff in the warm season (t’storm or tornado watches/warnings) but just focus on our own forecast in the winter.
lets say that it does accumalate upwards of two inches…would that be enough to hold the tempature down at surface level to make it an all-snow event?
4:42 pm…It is snowing in Paris. At least a little bit of what is reflected on the radar is reaching the ground.