It’s easy to overlook the fact that this was (in many places) the coldest morning of the year. Here are some of the lowest temperatures I found on the hourly Tennessee temperature reports.
Dickson, Gallatin, Portland: 6
Cookeville, Lewisburg, Savannah: 7
Clarksville, Columbia, Crossville, McMinnville, Paris: 8
Fayetteville, Lawrenceburg, Lebanon, Murfreesboro, Winchester: 9
Camden, Shelbyville: 10
Smyrna, Tullahoma: 11
Nashville: 12
If it was 3-4 degrees colder this morning than expected, couldn’t the same happen tomorrow?
I don’t know what going to happen, but all I know is that like everyone else I want to see snow. The News 2 Mets will do the best job possible keeping us up-to-date on what is going on. I think we all understand that if the Low stays just a little South of the projected path then we’ll get a good snow. If it moves a little North of the projected path then we’ll see snow to start and the rest rain. Projecting the exact path of a Low is impossible because even with Hurricanes they have the landfall down to a couple of miles and then it can turn for no reason it seems and everything changes. The same could happen with this system. All we can do is hope and pray for some good snow and that everyone will be safe. I hope luck is on our side.
Temperature inversion…
We need to keep a very close eye on this…we busted by 6-11 degrees F on the low side last night…moisture is moving about 5-10% faster than anyone expected…This could get interesting.
Justin, If you are still in, could you explain to some of these folks in some detail why winter weather is so hard to find in middle Tn. Maybe explain some of the factors that make the area less favorable for snow…I would try, but I don’t want to botch it up and get blasted…lol
Josh, I think the difference between tonight and last night is “radiational cooling”. Whatever warmth we have today will likely be insulated by the cloud-cover provided later. We had clear skies last night which is why it got so cold.
It will be warmer tonight than last night. I’m sure others can explain it it a bit better, but it is the same factor that you have when you go to the beach at night and the ocean is warmer than the air temp on clear nights.
It’s 24 degrees at 10:30 and the high today is predicted at 35-37? I would be suprised if we see 32, especially since I am starting to see clouds coming in from the south.
My 3 cents.
THis weather definitly does not make sense.According to NOAA west Tennesse will be sleet and snow.Looks like that would be the case for us in middle Tennessee.We will just have to wait and see.
clouds are moving into my area(lewis county) right now. That could keep the temps down as far as the high today and maybe cut back a degree or 2 on tonights low. Instead of 27 i am saying 25 for my area.
It was 6 here last night when the forecast was 12. Just because we have clouds does not mean the forecast low cannot be wrong. One thing is for sure it wont be 6. But I don’t see upper 20’s…I see mid 20’s which help snow chances.
Also the precip is gonna be moving in earlier than people thought
Thanks Servo
verga is already showing up just about 20 miles west and south of memphis.
Justin or any other met - I have a question on evap cooling for this event. We have some very dry air right now with Td of 5′F. According to GFS MOS at precip onset we will have a T 28′F and Td 16′F. Using T-(T-Td)/3=Twb then Twb= 24′F. Wouldn’t the evap cooling not considering latent heat keep us below freezing moreso than what is progged???
Gabe, I know this question has been asked before. What is verga? Thanks!
virga- precipitation that falls from a cloud but evaporates before reaching the ground. At high altitudes the precipitation falls mainly as ice crystals before melting and finally evaporating; this is usually due to compressional heating because the air pressure increases closer to the ground.
Ron - great question.
I think once the column saturates (late tonight) the evaporational cooling effect will be negligible. The 12z gfs and wrf skew-t’s do reflect a slower change from snow to rain in Nashville (late morning instead of mid-morning) so that’s encouraging for us snow-lovers.