After a few patches of sleet Saturday night, it was all a cold rain on Sunday with highs in the anticipated mid 40s.
Another cold front will move through early Monday morning bringing a brisk northwest wind and a high struggling to near 40 by afternoon. The clouds will not clear out on Monday, adding to the chill in the air.
There is a slim chance of a flurry or two Monday night into early Tuesday morning but of little consequence.
Last night we mentioned a chance for snow showers to dust the ground Thursday. The newest AVN/GFS model doesn’t look that impressive. We said it wouldn’t be “the big one” but a whitening of the ground would be more than we’ve seen so far. Although we still have a few flurries in the forecast, I doubt the ground will be whitened.
thatll change again because the gfs is totally unreliable
Now wait DAVIS just said and I quote “”" Nothing to whiten the ground”"”" You just called your self out on that one. I love it when these guys go by the computers, it will make you look stupid every time.
Dear Shaq,
None of the computer models are the perfect answer, and none will ever be. However, in my comparisons the GFS is the most reliable past 2 days.
Unfortunately, when you are going past 2 days, there are not a lot of other tools that can help you forecast.
The big reason we enjoy explaining things on this blog is so you get a better feeling for forecasting.
We get to welcome you to our world!
Jason,
Just curious… what do you expect the mets to do when they have 7-day forecasts that they have to fill out, and all they have to go by are computer models for extended forecasts.
Should the mets say “sunny & warm” when the computer models say snow?
It’s not an enviable position that these folks are in. I guess I have a little sympathy for them.
They can MAN or WOMAN up and say were not sure what the system is going to do. That is what they should do. NOT GUESS WITH A COMPUTER. What was all that school for????????
yea davis i agree but its just all these models are flip flopping all over the place sometimes, really though models are just good at a general trend in the weather ……makes we want to forecast using the old ways wayyyy more simpler
Jason just to clarify they never know what a system will do and neither does anyone else…why dont you be weatherman for a day and you would probably see what it is like…..im done:)
Jason:
I don’t think you have a future in programming for TV News/Weather, because an “I don’t know what’s going to happen” isn’t going to cut it with the public. They demand to know what is going to happen with the weather. They would like to have a reasonable idea about the extended forecast as well.
While it’s easier to explain the 5 day in the summer, it’s quite another thing in the winter.
That’s the way it’s always been and until a better, more reliable system is invented, it will not change!
Davis…will you and the weather team please quit putting snow in the forecast 5 days in advance…..especially when 9 times out of 10 it does not snow
Just another reminder to check out the February Outlook and make any comments or ask any questions, if you haven’t already. Click my name to go to it. I would like to know how I did.
dang i hoped we wouldve got below freezing tonite
Come on people. I am just as frustrated as you all are about the outcome of this winter so far, but don’t take it out on News2. They
can’t just turn the knob on a thermostat and
make it cool down and they can’t turn on a sprinkler and make it rain. They look at a computer screen, crunch some numbers and try to agree on a forecast. They studied weather for years in school and we haven’t(yet). If they are wrong, they shouldn’t have to listen to everyone b**** and moan about it. Act like the adults y’all are supposed to. Please.
i know its soo sad
is the front still scheduled to come in tommorrow morning because it is already crossing into west tennesse
Well, I hate to admit it, but I miss those
days where you could play Baseball or Football until 8:00 or 9:00 in the evening.
Where, when you wake up in the morning you don’t dread going outside and when you have no tests, deadlines, papers, or GPAs to worry about. Ya know what I’m sayin’?
All in favor for Summer say “I’… I!!!
I am working on the Forecast analysis as we speak for the February Outlook. I expect to finish it soon. I will tell you all when it is posted on Kaiyln Leto’s blog.
“nay”
Are the southern counties likely to see more precipitation Wed-Thur? Also, I noticed the low for wed night is 28 degrees according to NOAA…maybe a possibility for some freezing on the roadways and such?
OK… Finally the Forecast analysis is ready. It’s a must read.
Jason,
Mike said it well. But, one thing about weather forecasting is that it deals with PROBABILITIES, NOT CERTAINTIES.
If, for example, the meteorologists give a forecast that includes a 40% chance of snow. Do you know what? That implies that there is a 60% chance that it won’t snow.
So, when Davis, Lisa, or anyone else says that there is a “chance,” that’s all it is… a chance. It is a statement of probability coming from the assessment of the data. No one is saying with certainty that they “know” what it’s going to do several days from now. A weather forecast is essentially an EDUCATED guess.
It is what it is. I’m not sure why you’re so bent out of shape about it.
If you have heart conditions do no view this link.
just failing to see the greatness of it.
Im bent out of shape because im tired of this GUESSING CRAP. Quit guessing at the forcast. You guys seem to think this is ok and the public wants to hear something. Well news flash im part of the public and I would rather here them say were not sure about this forcast it could change. That would be an honest responce and would go alot farther with the public than on may think. Mike I would go beyond what anyone may think if I was on the air. I would lay out the facts and move on.
But, Jason, the crazy thing about it is that I hear forecasters say that they’re not sure about the forecast and that it could change. I hear that quite a bit.
It just goes without saying that there’s uncertainty built in… and that the forecast could change.
You know what? You said you’re tired of the guessing. Well, it IS guessing. That’s exactly what a forecast is… a GUESS, an educated guess based on the data. It’s never pretended to be anything else. It is what it is. Take it or leave it. If it bugs you that much, then quit looking at forecasts.
I remember a few years back when they didn’t go past a 5 day forecast. Then some person/channel and the wonderful idea and decided to go to a “seven day” forecast and others had to follow suit. I think they need to go back to a max of a 5 day forecast and stop trying to guess a week in advance! It’s pretty difficult to predict 36 hours let alone a week.
This is the way I see it.. If you dont want to hear what the mets say and understand that they are guessing and they are not able to tell you for a fact what is going to happen then try to figure it out for your self.. you go to weather school and you will be able to decide what the weather is going to be. The mets can only guess with the info they recieve. The info they recieve changes from day to day, so will there predictions on the weather.
They can not look into the future and say ” I Know for a fact it will snow at this time on this day. ” that is not possiable.
I just like to hear it is possiable for a chancce of snow. It just gives me hope that it will come soon.