Which does not bode well for a “good” snow.

These “possible” snow totals would take us through early Thursday morning. We could get another round Thursday night that would give northwestern counties more (so don’t despair just yet).
Also take this map with a grain of salt… imbedded snow showers could leave some spots up north with more than areas south of I-40. I do think an inch is the best most of us can hope for with the system picking up speed. It looks as if the precip will end for northern counties in the early morning. The precip will continue in the southeastern counties longer but should change to rain.

You are right… higher dewpoints would give us a much better chance of snow reaching the ground. We will get the light amounts forecasted but if dewpoints could have climbed into the 20’s it would have made for something a little more substantial.

Sorry, I have been trying to post this entry for more than an hour but keep getting interrupted. So here it is.

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With the ground so cold this first round of snow showers left a dusting just before the sun went down in some areas west of Nashville.

This shot is from Henry County between Paris and Big Sandy.

This shot is from Tennessee Ridge in Houston County.

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LATEST WRF MODEL RUN COATS US WITH AT LEAST 1″ OF SNOW BY DAWN THURSDAY:

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for portions of the Highland Rim and Cumberland Plateau. A http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=ohx&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory for the rest of us. Check out the homepage of the NWS to see the map.

The big question continues to be how quickly will warmer temps push up from the south. It looks like we could see mixed precip south of I-40 by, if not a little before, sunrise. If temps rise as expected any snow or ice should change to a light rain south of I-40 by mid to late morning. Your snow will melt.

North of 40 will probably see the precip end before it changes over to rain so you may get to keep your 1-2″ of snow.

Another wave of moisture will trigger a mixed or snow north, rain south Thursday night.

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Justin and I can’t help ourselves updating from home. Excuse my crude map above, but it shows what you can do with that little paint program that comes with your computer.

Lisa Patton will be updating this information on News 2 at 4, 4:40, 5, & 6pm and some of those figures may change.

We expect the precip to arrive tonight. Models have it just after midnight, but it could start a little sooner. Keep in mind that some of the snow already being seen on radar is not reaching the ground.
Nashville is right on the line between 1/2-1″ and 1-2″. During the day, the precip in Nashville will change to a mix of snow and rain and then to rain. Our southern counties generally from Columbia southward will see a snow/sleet mixture at first, changing to rain after sunrise.

As usual, some of our eastern higher elevations could see the highest amounts.

On Thursday night and Friday the precip should end as snow showers and flurries.

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Thanks to everyone for visiting the blog today - traffic is sky high. The late morning models have come in and we don’t see any reason to change our general thinking about tonight and tomorrow’s forecast.

At midday, the radar looks very snowy in Arkansas but it’s always smart to check that with the observed conditions at the ground. There’s plenty of dry air at the surface so some/much of the leading edge moisture is evaporating before it reaches the ground. If snow is reported you’ll see an asterisk (*) to the left of the temperature.

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It’s easy to overlook the fact that this was (in many places) the coldest morning of the year. Here are some of the lowest temperatures I found on the hourly Tennessee temperature reports.

Dickson, Gallatin, Portland: 6
Cookeville, Lewisburg, Savannah: 7
Clarksville, Columbia, Crossville, McMinnville, Paris: 8
Fayetteville, Lawrenceburg, Lebanon, Murfreesboro, Winchester: 9
Camden, Shelbyville: 10
Smyrna, Tullahoma: 11
Nashville: 12

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A few forecast points to keep in mind:

- Our best opportunity for snow will be late tonight and early tomorrow morning, before many people wake up.
- Southern sections of Middle Tennessee will see a mix or just rain to start, not snow.
- Areas north of I-40 will have more cold air to work with, but less moisture.
- Any snow that does accumulate will be followed by some rain, so there will be melting.
- There should be a relative break in the action from late morning through afternoon where precipitation is spotty/light.
- An additional round of light precipitation is expected late tomorrow.
- It will start as rain or a mix but should change to light snow late Thursday night into early Friday morning.

(more…)

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Morning temperatures are very cold, down in the teens and single digits. Winds are calm or light, but any hint of a breeze sends wind chills down toward zero or below zero. Check current temperatures here. Morning sun will yield to thickening high clouds as the day progresses. Highs will be in the middle to upper 30s.

I’m guessing you don’t give two hoots about today’s forecast. Everyone’s looking ahead to Thursday and the potential for wintry precipitation. Here’s the general thinking for Nashville:

There are many things we need to keep in mind for tomorrow’s event. This will not be an all-snow event; we’ll contend with snow to start tomorrow morning, then a mix of rain and sleet, followed by a little more light snow to finish the event Thursday night and Friday morning.

It looks like snow will accumulate early tomorrow morning across the central and northern sections of Middle Tennessee. We think 1″ will be a good accumulation to shoot for Thursday morning in Nashville. Southern sections of the mid-state will fight with some warmer air aloft and that will mean more of a mix than plain ol’ snow to start. Northern sections (north of I-40) of the mid-state (and southern Kentucky) will have the cold air but will be on the northern periphery of the moisture. Welcome to winter weather prediction in Tennessee!

We think there will be a change from snow to light rain late Thursday morning and afternoon as surface temperatures climb into the middle 30s. The action will be light as the morning batch of precipitation pulls eastward. A second round of moisture arrives Thursday evening/night through Friday morning. That should start as rain or a mix before transitioning back to light snow to finish the event.

We’ll keep you updated this morning; join Jeff and me for team weather coverage this morning on the air…

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This latest run should make Ryan in Hickman County a little happier:

This looks a bit more reasonable, however it still looks as if southern Plateau region has best shot at decent amounts.
Most worried about ice possibilities in southern counties.
Another, lighter, round of snow showers Thursday night/Friday morning.

Why can’t we just get 6″ inches across the board and be done with it?? But, noooo, we’ve got to be on the “line”!

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This should get those tongues a wagging:

This particular modeling is based on the WRF.
Note: My experience is that many models tend to overdo accumulation expectations.

Indeed, it does look as if the bulk of the moisture will slide by south and east of Nashville which points to heavy accumulation possibilities for the southern Plateau and areas adjacent.
Amounts may be much lighter here in the Nashville area but a little goes a long way.

Temperatures are expected to warm above freezing (with the exception of the northern and western sections of middle Tennessee) and suggest a changeover to all rain by Thursday afternoon. We’ll see!

In the meantime, bundle up or stay in tonight… Lows between 9 and 16 degrees!

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