Wind Advistory Through Noon Friday
Winds will be quite gusty as a squall line moves through Nashville between 11:30 and midnight. Gusts up to 35mph are possible.
However, the winds may be more significant as this Low travels by to our west/northwest.
The National Weather Service has us under a Wind Advisory until Noon Friday.
Add that to the dropping temps and bah-humbug! The least we could do is get some snow… but NOOOOOOOOO!
Severe Storm Watch Cancelled For Southwest Tennessee
One bit of good news is that the previously issued watch has been dropped for southwest Tennessee. No warnings were ever issued.
That’s good news. However, we will have to continue to monitor Stormtracker tonight with the rapidly intensifying low approaching Memphis and headed towards west Tennessee and Kentucky. Things could change rapidly, but so far, so good.
If we have storms overnight, it would be no sooner than midnight for Nashville, no sooner than 10pm near the Tennessee River.
The interesting thing is that the front that extends from the low towards the Ohio Valley sunk southward a little this evening. While Nashville is 71 at 6pm, Clarksville has dropped to 51, Paris 47, Huntingdon 52. Memphis has even dropped to 48. That front may return northward as a warm front tonight as the low moves northeastward. Then the real front drops in behind the low with the frigid air. Still, the most we would see of any frozen precip would be a few flurries on Friday (if that). You can read why below.
By the way, from The National Weather Service:
RECORD EVENT REPORT…RETRANSMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
437 PM CST THU NOV 30 2006
…RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT NASHVILLE…
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 76 DEGREES WAS TIED AT NASHVILLE
TODAY…WITH THE PREVIOUS YEAR BEING 1933.
So Why Are We Only Calling For The Possibility Of A Few Flurries?
Computer model forecast of isobars for 6pm this evening (left) and noon tomorrow (right)
Many of you have been asking a logical question: With all the snow and ice to our west, and the cold air coming to Middle Tennessee, why isn’t the snow and ice headed our way, as well? All week long we have been calling for nothing more than flurries or a small burst of snow at most.
The answer is in the track of the low pressure system. The snow and ice are to the west and northwest of the low as circled in the computer model forecasts above. As it moves northeast towards the Ohio Valley, so goes the frozen precipitation. In this case, all we can expect are some flurries underneath the bottom of the low as the cold air moves in (if that). We are still more concerned about storms overnight.
T’Storm Watch in SW Tennessee
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued until 8pm for southwest Tennessee, including the following News 2 counties: Carroll, Decatur and Hardin.
The leading edge of the cold air has pushed into the northwest corner of the state and just reached Memphis. Low pressure is developing along the front in southern Arkansas. That will slow the front down in West Tennessee. As the newly-formed low passes to our north it will drag a cold front across Middle Tennessee late this evening through late tonight (see prior entry for more specific timing).
We expect strong winds to accompany a line of heavy rain as the front moves through. We may get lucky and miss out on the heavy lightning and thunder due to low instability. That said, we can’t rule out the small chance of an isolated tornado due to the strong and shifting winds aloft. The main threat will be strong winds ahead and along the front - that’s especially on the higher elevations of the Cumberland Plateau where non-storm winds should surpass 40 mph.
Forecast Thoughts
Quite a lot to chew on in the next 24 hours. There are a few showers along the western edge of Middle Tennessee but for most of us it’s another breezy and mild day. We’re in the lower and middle 70s, thanks to breaks in the cloud cover and gusty south winds (20 to 30 mph). Today’s record high in Nashville was 76 set in 1933. We might get close…
At midday the cold front stretched from the Ohio River Valley down through Arkansas and down to East Texas. That front separates warm and moist air from cold arctic air. Temperatures have dropped from 20 to 30 degrees over the course of a couple of hours as the front sweeps across the country.
Low pressure was developing near SW Arkansas and will travel to Memphis this afternoon before quickly passing north of Middle Tennessee tonight. The cold front should reach the western edge of the mid-state (TN River) between 9pm and midnight, reach the I-65 corridor including Nashville sometime around/after midnight and pass the Cumberland Plateau before dawn.
Strong southerly winds will continue until the front crosses the area and winds switch around to the west and northwest for tomorrow morning…allowing the cold air to pour into the area very quickly after daybreak.
What about severe weather? What about winter weather?
(more…)
Winter Weather to the West
I want to point your attention to the snow, sleet and freezing rain happening in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri and Illinois. 40 mph gusts from the north mean wind chills around 0 Fahrenheit in some spots. Here are links to local coverage in Dallas, Oklahoma City and Kansas City.
This is the same storm that brought almost 40″ to the mountains of Utah. According to the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center an additional 2″ to 6″ is possible in the Southern Plains while parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley like Missouri could see 12″ by tomorrow morning (after lots of ice today).
An update on our forecast coming shortly…
The Deep Breath Before the Plunge
Twenty-four hours away from winter slamming into middle Tennessee. One more day in the 70’s with gusty southwest winds. Late afternoon and evening we run the risk of severe weather, the greatest risk being damaging winds. This is risk area as described by the Storm Prediction Center.
There is a High Wind Advisory in effect for the plateau where wind gusts could hit the 60mph range. The cold front sweeps through during the overnight; we expect the temperatures to drop from the 60’s to the 30’s in about a 3 hour period. Heavy rain in the overnight as the front comes through, that rain will become light snow/rain mix in the morning hours tomorrow. We are not expecting it to stick because of the warm ground but with temperatures in the 30’s and wind chills in the teens its going to be very, very winter. Here are the forecasted highs for TOMORROW afternoon.
The cold weather starts on Dec.1st and sticks around till mid-December. Turn the calendar, get the coat.
Can anybody name the movie this entry title is based on?
Record High Temp Set Today
The 2pm observation from the airport reports a temperature of 75 degrees. This breaks the old record of 74 set in 1998. The temp could still go higher. The normal high for this date is 54.
Will this set the stage for strong storms Thursday night? Please read the previous two entries.
Interesting Statement From Storm Prediction Center Concerning Storms Thursday Night
This is a follow up to the previous entry below. Please read that in conjunction with this. Concerning the strong dynamics (shear and strong jet) and the weaker instability (CAPE), The Storm Prediction Center said this in their updated Convective Outlook:
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN AS FORECAST BY NAM AND GFS HAS AN ANALOG IN 1996
NOVEMBER 7-8 EVENT WHICH RESULTED IN A SWATH OF SEVERE CONVECTIVE
WIND EVENTS FROM LA TO OH. THIS ANALOG WAS ALSO A STRONGLY
DYNAMIC…LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR…SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE.
So what is an ANALOG?
ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD.
To read the whole statement click here.
P.S. On a different note: Please scroll down and read Justin’s entry “Adopt A Dog”.
An Update On Thursday Night’s Storm Chances, Friday Snow Flurries
WRF (NAM) model on the left, AVN-GFS model on the right, both valid midnight tomorrow night.
After today, we will have one more mild day (Thursday) before the cold air arrives for Friday. The questions are:
1) Will we have any strong or severe storms in the transition Thursday night?
2) Will there be any snow when the cold air arrives?
The two maps above are showing isobars for midnight tomorrow night. They are today’s output of the same models (WRF or NAM and AVN-GFS) we showed yesterday.
Both show the low passing to our north which could be conducive for severe weather.
There is also a strong jet aloft over this situation. The dynamics look pretty strong.
However, despite the fact that the dew points could reach 60 tomorrow, many of our “instability parameters” don’t look that threatening. Maybe that is because the situation occurs overnight when temps are cooler.
However, I still feel that we really have to keep our eyes open tomorrow night. Strong straight line winds area possible, as well as a few isolated tornadoes. It will be a juggling act between the strong dynamics and the not so strong instability.
The Storm Prediction Center still has us under a “slight risk”. Click here to see their forecast.
As for snow on Friday:
A few flurries are possible on the backside of the low in the cold air Friday morning, but nothing significant. The real snow chances will be in northern Missouri and Illinois.
