A tornado watch has been issued for the western part of West Tennessee, much of Arkansas and northwest Mississippi until 7:00 pm CDT. This watch replaces the previous watch from this morning that had included Hardin County. Middle Tennessee is not included in the current watch box.
Warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico has moved northward into the watch box area because of strong surface winds from the south. Winds aloft are blowing from the southwest with increasing speed. That twist of winds with height can provide tall thunderstorms enough spin for isolated tornadoes. Instability (warm, moist surface air underneath cooler air aloft) combined with a stationary front in Arkansas should allow thunderstorms to build today in the watch box area. The main threats will be isolated tornadoes, large hail and gusty wind.
Although Middle Tennessee has the spin necessary for severe weather, we’re not included in this watch box because we lack the surface instability. As Jeff mentioned this morning, the western edge of Middle Tennessee is included in the slight risk area on today’s severe weather outlook, but we anticipate that most of today’s severe weather will occur west of the mid-state. Check back with us for any changes through the day.
So we should be ok today and tonight I’m assuming? I am worried for my family in West Tn, they live between Dyersburg and Jackson, on the edge of the present Tornado Watch. It looks to be a rough two days…
I think it should stay mainly quiet in the mid-state until Saturday afternoon. West TN will have to stay weatherwise this afternoon through early Sunday.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2003
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
AREAS AFFECTED…MUCH OF AR INTO WRN TN AND NWRN MS
CONCERNING…TORNADO WATCH 786…
VALID 221715Z - 221845Z
TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS WRN
AND PERHAPS SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
TORNADOES…SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG.
REGIONAL VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DEEPENING
CUMULUS AND/OR EARLY TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER NWRN AR AND NEAR AND NE
OF TXK. HERE…THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG. WHILE LIT VWP SHOWS
THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HAS WEAKENED OVER THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING…ENVIRONMENT STILL REMAINS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF TORNADOES OWING TO THE DECREASE IN AIR MASS STABILITY
COUPLED WITH MODERATELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF
150-250 M2/S2.
THEREFORE…EXPECT THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL TO INITIALLY EXIST
ALONG WRN FRINGE OF WW AREA /I.E. FROM E OF FSM TO HRO/ EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON…WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS FREE WARM SECTOR OVER SRN INTO CNTRL
AR.
..MEAD.. 09/22/2006
ATTN…WFO…PAH…MEG…JAN…LZK…SGF…SHV…TSA…
35129482 35759453 36739347 36809105 36728861 34658886
33888962 33159388 33539501