Winds have picked up; rain and storms have already been moving over middle Tennessee this morning. The rain and storms continue today along with brisk south winds. The rain activity should let up some tonight for Friday Night Football but it’ll still be windy and mild. Tomorrow we again have scattered storms and windy conditions in the forecast as the temperature gets up in the mid 80’s. A cold front moves over Saturday night late; that front could fire up some severe weather late and into the overnight. By Sunday afternoon things should be clearing out. Below is the severe storm risk for today, it includes the western half of our area.
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-231030-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
530 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE…WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL…ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
65. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
NUMEROUS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY…AS THE FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE…WITH DAMAGING WINDS
…LARGE HAIL…AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
ALTHOUGH LATE SEPTEMBER IS NOT CONSIDERED A PEAK PERIOD FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE…YOU SHOULD REMEMBER THAT
TORNADOES HAVE OCCURRED DURING EVERY MONTH OF THE YEAR. SO…
KEEP INFORMED ABOUT THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. LISTEN FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS THAT
MIGHT BE ISSUED…AND BE READY TO SEEK SAFE SHELTER IF A SEVERE
WEATHER WARNING IS ISSUED.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…
SPOTTER ACTIVATION COULD BE REQUIRED AT ANY POINT DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS…UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON SUNDAY.
Is the main threat with this system for us going to be severe weather along a large line moving through tomorrow night, or is it possible our area could see supercell development? And does the timing of the passage of the line in the overnight possibly decrease the threat a little bit?
What a total was of a weekend this is going to be.
Hi,
I’m going to the Rascal Flatts Concert tonight, and taking my daughter and her friend. Will the weather be dangerous? We live near Cookeville, and I’m not looking forward to rough conditions on the drive into Nashville, and back home.
First thing I would like to do is say congrats to Neil and Heather on the expectancy of their first child. I don’t know how they found the time working as much as they do, especially on different shifts, but CONGRATS.
Second, Jeff or Justin, Do you see Middle TN having as mucha tornado threat as West TN? I’m really not looking forward to the next 3 days. I wish we could just get into Winter with no severe weather. We’ve been very lucky this summer with no really severe weather outbreaks, but I just hope we can keep it that way.
Hey guys,
just wanted to say that the area that is in a “moderate risk” is really big right now, I think we will definetly see some severe storms this weekend, but how numerous or widespread they will be I do not know, I woulden’t be suprised if there is a tornado watch issued just due to the fact because memphis is under a tornado watch right now, but I woulden’t be suprised if one isen’t issued because of the dry summer we have had. We shall see what happens very soon.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 786
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
910 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 910 AM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.
…THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION…
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES…LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER…
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH OF FORT SMITH
ARKANSAS TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF DYERSBURG TENNESSEE. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 785. WATCH NUMBER 785 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
910 AM CDT.
DISCUSSION…EXTREME SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS LARGE UPPER LOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN
PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE SURFACE BOUNDARY DELINEATING VERY
MOIST/TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR EXTENDING WSWWD FROM SWRN TN INTO
W-CENTRAL AR/SERN OK THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY MAY LIFT NWD AND BECOME
MORE DIFFUSE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HEATING INTO THE LOWER 80S WILL
ALLOW A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND VERY WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING
AND MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING. PRESENCE
OF SURFACE BOUNDARY…ALONG WITH O-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2
AND LOW LCLS…WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES AS
SUPERCELLS INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY.
AVIATION…TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
…EVANS
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 786
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
910 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 910 AM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.
…THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION…
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES…LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER…
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH OF FORT SMITH
ARKANSAS TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF DYERSBURG TENNESSEE. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 785. WATCH NUMBER 785 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
910 AM CDT.
DISCUSSION…EXTREME SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS LARGE UPPER LOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN
PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE SURFACE BOUNDARY DELINEATING VERY
MOIST/TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR EXTENDING WSWWD FROM SWRN TN INTO
W-CENTRAL AR/SERN OK THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY MAY LIFT NWD AND BECOME
MORE DIFFUSE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HEATING INTO THE LOWER 80S WILL
ALLOW A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND VERY WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING
AND MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING. PRESENCE
OF SURFACE BOUNDARY…ALONG WITH O-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2
AND LOW LCLS…WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES AS
SUPERCELLS INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY.
AVIATION…TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
…EVANS
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 221406
WOU6
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 786
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
910 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
TORNADO WATCH 786 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ARC001-005-009-019-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-039-045-049-051-
053-055-059-063-065-067-069-071-075-077-079-083-085-089-093-095-
097-101-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-135-
137-141-145-147-149-230000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0786.060922T1410Z-060923T0000Z/
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BAXTER BOONE
CLARK CLAY CLEBURNE
CLEVELAND CONWAY CRAIGHEAD
CRITTENDEN CROSS DALLAS
FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND
GRANT GREENE HOT SPRING
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAWRENCE
LEE LINCOLN LOGAN
LONOKE MARION MISSISSIPPI
MONROE MONTGOMERY NEWTON
PERRY PHILLIPS PIKE
POINSETT POLK POPE
PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH
SALINE SCOTT SEARCY
SHARP ST. FRANCIS STONE
VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF
YELL
MOC069-155-230000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0786.060922T1410Z-060923T0000Z/
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
MSC027-033-093-107-119-137-143-230000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0786.060922T1410Z-060923T0000Z/
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COAHOMA DESOTO MARSHALL
PANOLA QUITMAN TATE
TUNICA
TNC033-045-047-075-095-097-131-157-167-230000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0786.060922T1410Z-060923T0000Z/
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROCKETT DYER FAYETTE
HAYWOOD LAKE LAUDERDALE
OBION SHELBY TIPTON
ATTN…WFO…LZK…MEG…
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 786 TORNADO AR MO MS TN 221410Z - 230000Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
45S FSM/FORT SMITH AR/ - 30SSE DYR/DYERSBURG TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM N/S /42S FSM - 26SSE DYR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
REPLACES WW 785..AR MO MS TN
LAT…LON 35619437 36548919 34658919 33749437
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 786 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 786
VALID 221540Z - 221640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..09/22/06
ATTN…WFO…LZK…MEG…
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 786
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-005-009-019-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-039-045-049-051-
053-055-059-063-065-067-069-071-075-077-079-083-085-089-093-095-
097-101-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-135-
137-141-145-147-149-221640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BAXTER BOONE
CLARK CLAY CLEBURNE
CLEVELAND CONWAY CRAIGHEAD
CRITTENDEN CROSS DALLAS
FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND
GRANT GREENE HOT SPRING
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAWRENCE
LEE LINCOLN LOGAN
LONOKE MARION MISSISSIPPI
MONROE MONTGOMERY NEWTON
PERRY PHILLIPS PIKE
POINSETT POLK POPE
PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH
ST. FRANCIS SALINE SCOTT
SEARCY SHARP STONE
VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF
YELL
$$
MSC027-033-093-107-119-137-143-221640-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COAHOMA DESOTO MARSHALL
PANOLA QUITMAN TATE
TUNICA
$$
MOC069-155-221640-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC033-045-047-075-095-097-131-157-167-221640-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROCKETT DYER FAYETTE
HAYWOOD LAKE LAUDERDALE
OBION SHELBY TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES…INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Please visit the National Weather Service Interactive Weather Information Network (IWIN) for more information on the warnings.
Note: Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
High (70%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
High (70%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (40%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Low (20%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (90%)
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The “Low” category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), “Moderate” from 30% to 60%, and “High” from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.
Mike: I think that scattered activity will develop Saturday afternoon ahead of the actual cold front (which should pass through late Saturday night or early Sunday morning). There should be less surface instability in Tennessee tomorrow afternoon compared to this afternoon in Arkansas, but we can’t rule out a few severe weather warnings. The timing of the front (night) does help lower our severe threat, in my opinion.
Micki: A few showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight around the area, but I don’t think you’re in danger. I’d have some wet weather gear handy if I were going to be outside for a long while.
David F.: Check my post and Jeff’s recent posts on the blog for our thoughts.