If you’ve been outside this evening, you have probably seen lightning flashing, especially northwest and west of Nashville. There has also been some lightning in Rutherford County east of Murfreesboro and near Franklin in Williamson County earlier. Check out the radars above for the latest.

Some of this activity may last into the night as an upper level disturbance pushes eastward out of Arkansas into Tennessee.

We expect an increase in shower and storm activity tomorrow and Tuesday, as well, as a frontal system drops in from the north.

After being upgraded to a hurricane overnight, Ernesto has now been downgraded back to a tropical storm with winds near 60mph.

The last several advisories have pushed the forecast track of Ernesto farther eastward. The latest shows it affecting The Keys and the west coast of Florida peninsula this week. Of course, this could change in future advisories.

The last several days I have been watching an upper level low off of the Georgia/South Carolina coast pushing southwestward across north Florida (as it rotates under a high pressure center in the southeast U.S.)
Newest models keep that upper low in the northern Gulf of Mexico as Ernesto approaches from the south. This is probably why the models are now steering Ernesto more to the east. My hope is that this upper level low pressure trough also shears the storm enough to decrease its strength. The new track from the Hurricane Center has it at Cat 1 strength when it approaches Florida, as opposed to the Cat 3 strength they portrayed yesterday. I would love to see it get sheared back down further!

Let’s hope for the best for all our friends living on or near The Gulf.

After a scorching Sunday afternoon, showers and storms will be on the increase the next two days as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The front should move through on Tuesday followed by cooler temperatures. This is a welcome relief with no 90s in the 7 Day Forecast. By mid week it will be mid 80s and mid 60s for highs and lows respectively.

We’re watching some moisture work northward into west Tennessee which along with an upper level disturbance will help set off some scattered t’storm activity on Sunday, with the chances increasing the farther west you go from Nashville.

By Monday, the chances increase for all of Middle Tennessee.

The latest forecast track brings Tropical Storm “Ernesto” into the Gulf of Mexico, increasing it to a Cat 3 hurricane by Thursday morning located south-southeast of the Louisiana-Mississippi coast. Needless to say, a lot of people are not happy, but we knew that sooner or later a hurricane would end up in the Gulf this summer.

I started calling my parents in New Orleans (at their temporary apartment) last Wednesday before the system was even classified a depression. I want them to have as much “heads up” advanced warning as possible, as they plan to leave early to avoid traffic jams and gas shortages. I guess that’s one advantage of having a son who is a meteorologist.

In New Orleans, there are now gates at the mouths of the drainage canals which can be closed to keep a storm surge from coming in. However, these canals (and very large pumps) are what drain the rain water out of the city. The temporary pumps installed at the gates are only 20-30% capacity of the big pumps. That means some areas could flood from rain water. That’s not as bad as a storm surge, but still would ruin your house if you’ve done repairs.

Then, there are the thousands of people in Louisiana and Mississippi living in FEMA trailers. That’s not a safe place to be during high winds.

I hope that several upper level low pressure troughs may “shear” the storm causing it to lose strength.

Models have the system coming ashore anywhere from Louisiana to Florida by Friday. Let’s pray it weakens before landfall!