After being upgraded to a hurricane overnight, Ernesto has now been downgraded back to a tropical storm with winds near 60mph.

The last several advisories have pushed the forecast track of Ernesto farther eastward. The latest shows it affecting The Keys and the west coast of Florida peninsula this week. Of course, this could change in future advisories.

The last several days I have been watching an upper level low off of the Georgia/South Carolina coast pushing southwestward across north Florida (as it rotates under a high pressure center in the southeast U.S.)
Newest models keep that upper low in the northern Gulf of Mexico as Ernesto approaches from the south. This is probably why the models are now steering Ernesto more to the east. My hope is that this upper level low pressure trough also shears the storm enough to decrease its strength. The new track from the Hurricane Center has it at Cat 1 strength when it approaches Florida, as opposed to the Cat 3 strength they portrayed yesterday. I would love to see it get sheared back down further!

Let’s hope for the best for all our friends living on or near The Gulf.

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