The latest forecast track brings Tropical Storm “Ernesto” into the Gulf of Mexico, increasing it to a Cat 3 hurricane by Thursday morning located south-southeast of the Louisiana-Mississippi coast. Needless to say, a lot of people are not happy, but we knew that sooner or later a hurricane would end up in the Gulf this summer.
I started calling my parents in New Orleans (at their temporary apartment) last Wednesday before the system was even classified a depression. I want them to have as much “heads up” advanced warning as possible, as they plan to leave early to avoid traffic jams and gas shortages. I guess that’s one advantage of having a son who is a meteorologist.
In New Orleans, there are now gates at the mouths of the drainage canals which can be closed to keep a storm surge from coming in. However, these canals (and very large pumps) are what drain the rain water out of the city. The temporary pumps installed at the gates are only 20-30% capacity of the big pumps. That means some areas could flood from rain water. That’s not as bad as a storm surge, but still would ruin your house if you’ve done repairs.
Then, there are the thousands of people in Louisiana and Mississippi living in FEMA trailers. That’s not a safe place to be during high winds.
I hope that several upper level low pressure troughs may “shear” the storm causing it to lose strength.
Models have the system coming ashore anywhere from Louisiana to Florida by Friday. Let’s pray it weakens before landfall!
Davis, I was wondering how come Ernesto’s pressure has seemed to drop so significantly since yesterday but the wind speed is still relatively low by comparison. I really expected it to be a much stronger TS by this point.
Hey guys,
I am not happy about this either….
I just found something that makes me even less happy. In the url:, it will take you to one of the models that the mets use…I bet they already know by now. I put the thing as far into the future as I could. 144 hours. I think that is 6 days. Look at New Orleans. Everything i’ve looked out shows Ernesto hitting either LA from the boot to the New Orleans area, to the Fl Panhandle, around Panama City. I hope that something happens. Even if it hits east of west, New Orleans can’t deal with even a tropical depresison I think right now. I’m terrified to think of what would happen if New Orleans is hit with a Cat 3, which is what I keep hearing it will be when it landfalls. Keep everyone in the Gulf Coast in your prayers please.
By the way, if that doesnt work, here is the link,
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2006082612&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
Just noticed,
you have to scroll over and push L(24)button, it will take you then,
Sorry!
I hope all the broadcast mets along the coast line are voicing the same concerns you are. Also wonder how well made the new levee system is made to stand up to more surge. I have my doubts. Need to find my relatives phone number to tell them (my NO crowd) again get out of “Dodge” as the Mississipi sheriff put it.
A month or so back back I read most of “The Storm” a detail personal account from LA researcher on how the Katrina disaster was both natural and man-made. Lets hope everyone can put last year aside and focus on this next round of tropical activity.
The pressure gradient on that graphic does not seem to adjust for a Cat 3 storm, rather it maintains about where Ernesto stands right now, perhaps a little weaker. That could just be indicative of the type of chart it is and may not truly get into storm specifics. Great tool, thanks for putting the URL up there, Jeremy.
Sharon, I remember after Andrew, the local Mets worked so hard in trying to “beat” into everyone’s heads that Hurricane Season BEGINS on June 1st…NOT when the first WATCHES/WARNINGS were issued. Unfortunately, some people NEVER learn. FORTUNATELY, some do. Even when we were under our own WATCHES/WARNINGS from Katrina, I had my bathtubs filled with water, batteries on hand, etc…..JUST IN CASE…
Prudence….is a good thing.
I just realized with Laborday weekend coming up, probably none of us will have a good traditional feast with this sencio being played out again.
Servocrow,
It does seem like the winds should have picked up more.
I think that sometimes the width of the storm may sometimes come into play.
Also, there may be a “lag” time from the time the pressure drops until the winds increase. Indeed, they increased to near 60 by the next advisory.
Hey Davis! The storm looks like it jogged to the north a bit so if it takes the right side of the track it will spen more time interacting with land over Cuba, but if it takes the left formidable signs indicate that it could become a “potentialy dangerous hurricane”. I love the weather and learning about it so right now i am debating on wether to go to OU in Norman Oklahoma or Miami University. and on another note did you know Max Mayfield is retiring? thats sad. he is a great director.
Hope your parents in New Orleans stay safe! Maybe they can come up to Tennessee and stay with you. Or they could have bought our house in Cookeville. Too bad we sold it already. Anyways take care News 2 storm team! Even know i am in kansas i still check this blog every day and i am always comming back to visit beloved tennessee!
-Brad Foster