At 1:00 pm CDT Ernesto was still a tropical storm, but with minor strengthening could reach minimal hurricane status before landfall late today near just north of Myrtle Beach near the South Carolina and North Carolina border. Current location is 90 miles southeast of Charleston and 180 miles south-southwest of Wilmington. Max sustained winds were 70 mph (74 mph is a Category 1) with some higher gusts. Here’s the visible loop and here’s the infrared loop so you can keep tabs on Ernesto. Regardless of its classification, isolated tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina through tonight. The largest threat will be flooding; a widespread 4″ to 8″ is expected with some areas receiving around a foot of rain.
Archive for August, 2006
Afternoon Ernesto Update
Thursday, August 31st, 2006Tropical Troubles
Thursday, August 31st, 2006Lots of action in the tropics, and it’s not just Ernesto. Here’s a round-up of activity world-wide, from strongest to weakest:
Category 5 Super Typhoon Ioke
In the Pacific Ocean
Sustained winds of 155 mph, max gusts 190 mph
Passed over Wake Island (elevation 20 feet) with reported 40 foot storm surge
More from ABC 33/40 in Birmingham
Category 3 Hurricane John
In the eastern Pacific off Mexican Coast
Sustained winds of 126 mph, max gusts 155 mph
Will hit Mexico’s southern Baja California peninsula tomorrow, including popular resort town of Cabo San Lucas
Category 1 Hurricane Kristy
West of Hurricane John in Pacific Ocean over open water
Sustained winds of 75 mph, max gusts 92 mph
Tropical Storm Ernesto
105 miles south-southeast of Charleston, SC
225 miles south-southwest of Wilmington, NC
Sustained winds of 60 mph, max gusts 69 mph
Landfall expected near SC/NC coast tonight
3′ to 5′ (foot) storm surge expected
4″ to 8″ of rain (isolated spots to 12″) up and down the Mid-Atlantic states
Flash flooding will be an issue in the Appalachian Mountains the next couple of days
Forecast track from the NHC takes it to Pennsylvania and New York as a tropical depression by Saturday
Fog to Start, Some Sunshine
Thursday, August 31st, 2006Sorry for the late post today, having some computer issues again. Anyway we awake this morning to some fog and overcast skies with temperatures pleasantly in the mid 60’s. Two different forecasts for middle Tennessee today; out east on the Plateau rain and clouds pretty much through the day with highs barely hitting 80. To the southwest of Nashville around Columbia and Centerville more sunshine and highs in the mid-80’s. I expect the fog to clear and we’ll enjoy partly cloudy skies around the Nashville area through early afternoon when clouds will start to develop from the daytime heating. That should keep the highs in the low 80’s but if the sun shines into the afternoon it could easily hit 85.
Ernesto will hit the North/South Carolina border late tonight, forecast to almost hurricane strength. Its really winding up quickly this morning off the coast of Georgia so stay tuned. Still thinking it’ll bring more in clouds and north, northwest winds for middle Tennessee than rain but the plateau could be seeing some tropical rain starting tonight. August ends on a cool note that lasts across the holiday season.
Upper Low To Keep Clouds Around..But Cooler!
Wednesday, August 30th, 2006
It’s a delight to have cooler temperatures moving in, but we will not see much of the sun for several days.
The upper level low pressure trough pictured above is going to move over Tennessee and stall out as a “cut off low”, meaning it will become circular shaped instead of trough shaped. As it does so, it will spin clouds and occasional showers over the Middle Tennessee area through Friday, and possibly parts of Saturday. When you check the satellite and radar animations over the next several days, note the counterclockwise spinning.
Temps will be in the low 80s for afternoon highs (upper 70’s if it is totally overcast), with overnight lows in the mid 60s.
Cooler Weather…Finally
Wednesday, August 30th, 2006We reap the benefit of yesterday’s cold front passage. After some severe weather and heavy rain Tuesday we’ll finally enjoy cooler temperatures today. Winds from the north clear the skies some later today (we’ll keep rain in the forecast for the plateau) but the main story will be the low humidity and comfortable afternoon highs in the low 80’s. Ernesto will likely only give us a steady north, northwest wind and some cloud cover starting tomorrow and into Friday as it comes onshore around the North/South Carolina border tomorrow late morning. Looks like the cooler weather lasts across the holiday weekend. Very nice…
Yesterday afternoon I put in some mum’s around the mailbox and other side of the driveway. In the rain. They are building a house across the street and the foreman walked by giving me a puzzled look. I told him I’d rather work in rain than work in upper-90 degree weather. You are going to end up soaked either way! Maybe I’m part duck but I actually enjoyed being outside in the rain and cloudy skies yesterday afternoon; maybe I’m just really wishing for Fall to start.
Severe T’Storm Watch Until 9pm For Southeast Middle Tennessee
Tuesday, August 29th, 2006
Storms have been firing up ahead of our front, as anticipated. So far, there has been a report of some trees down in northwest Lincoln County north of Boonshill. The storms should last through the early evening hours in Nashville, and until about 9pm in our eastern counties. Behind the front, we will still see clouds and drizzle along with the cooler temperatures on Wednesday.
Click on the “Watches and Warnings” icon above right and refresh often.
It Was About This Time One Year Ago…
Tuesday, August 29th, 2006
It was about this time one year ago today that my brother called me saying, “Dave, I’ve got bad news. There’s water coming into the house” (meaning our parents’ house in New Orleans). I said, “What? The storm is near Hattiesburg, Mississippi right now!” Thinking that this was rain water, I was baffled because the heavy rain(and winds) had subsided a couple of hours ago. When my brother called back a little while later and said that the water was approaching waist deep, I knew something was terribly wrong, and that this wasn’t rain water.
As we all know now, there was a huge breach in the 17th Street Canal floodwall that sent water all the way to the Superdome downtown.
Luckily for my parents, they were rescued by a boat. Although they spent a terrible two days in 95 degree heat trying to find out how to get out, they were eventually evacuated to Baton Rouge. From there, my brother (retired Delta pilot and former Navy pilot) heard from one of his “fly boy” friends who owned a charter plane dropping off supplies in Baton Rouge. It was returning to Pensacola empty and could take my parents. Meanwhile, Neil Orne, Todd Dunn and I were sent to New Orleans to cover the storm and possibly find my parents. I was not upset in the least that we had just missed them at the Baton Rouge airport!
They were the lucky ones.
It was four to five days before many people made it out. Many are still scattered all over the country, without the means to return home and rebuild.
Meanwhile, my beloved Mississippi Gulf coast, where I had spent summers as a child before Hurricane Camille destroyed the house in 1969, was ravaged by a 28-30 foot storm surge.
On this anniversary of Katrina, please stop and say a prayer for all of the people who lost their lives, and for those whose lives have been changed forever.
Another Day of Rain Chances
Tuesday, August 29th, 2006With a cold front still moving in from the northwest we stay in the warm, humid air for most of the day. The rain starts moving back in by mid-day on with about a 50% chance your yard, garden or pasture will get some water. Tonight the winds will start to come in from the northwest; it’ll get down into the 60’s by tomorrow morning after a couple of muggy mornings. Clouds and rain chances for your Wednesday, most of the rain will be east of Nashville up on the plateau. As Ernesto moves up the Carolina coast (coming onshore tomorrow morning southeast of Miami as a minimal hurricane) we’ll have clouds on Thursday and Friday. Staying in the mid-80’s to close out the work week and start September, after 24 of the first 29 days of August with above normal temperatures we’ll start the first week of September with below normal numbers. Here are the forecasted highs for tomorrow.
Some Storms Could Be StrongThis Afternoon
Monday, August 28th, 2006
As a cold front approaches today and tonight, storms should break out quite readily. Some of these storms may prompt a few severe t’storm warnings this afternoon. We’ll be watching them for you closely on News 2 Stormtracker.
This front should push through on Tuesday by the afternoon hours, ushering in some cooler temperatures. Indications are that we may see some clouds and a few showers persist behind that front later this week (especially the east half of Middle Tennessee), as the upper level trough that brought the front down “cuts off” over the area. Either way, it’s no more 90’s for awhile.
Ernesto Update
Monday, August 28th, 2006The latest talk out of the Hurricane center is for a rapid spin of T.S. Ernesto as it clears Cuba tomorrow.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE COMPLICATED DUE TO POSSIBLE
LAND INTERACTIONS WITH CUBA. IF ERNESTO EMERGES SOONER AND A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH OFF THE COAST OF CUBA…THEN THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE
MORE TIME TO STRENGTHEN OVER VERY WARM SSTS OF 86-88F AND IN A VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS
FORECASTING NEAR-ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR…JUST AS ERNESTO IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.
