Forecasting a summer afternoon’s t-storm activity “the morning of” is always an interesting endeavor. It’s less than twelve hours away, but can still be tricky. Maybe it is because we know there will be scattered t-storms, but we strive to come up with more details.
Well here goes.
I think that some storms this afternoon could be strong or severe with hail and short lived downburst winds. An upper level low is dropping southeastward through the north Mississippi Valley. It is also swinging an upper level disturbance (”short wave”) underneath it towards us for this evening. That is seen above in the “greenish” vorticity pattern that I’ve drawn the red dashed line through. As it moves in late this afternoon, storms should break out in the heat, starting in Arkansas, Missouri, and Illinois and begin spreading our way. The activity is likely to be scattered, so not every location will see a storm.
In addition, we still have a stationary front in East Tennessee. As this “short wave” moves across, it may also activate the storms ahead of and behind the front. That would affect our eastern counties.
It’s not going to be a widespread severe weather outbreak, but we could very well see some severe t-storm warnings issued late this afternoon and evening due to hail and brief thunderstorm downburst winds.
To read the Storm Prediction Center’s forecast for the area click below:
…LWR OH/TN VLYS…
A SETUP SIMILAR TO THAT WHICH AFFECTED THE MID MS VLY YESTERDAY WILL
PREVAIL FROM SW MI INTO PARTS OF IL/IND/WRN KY/TN AND PERHAPS NRN MS
TODAY AS UPR LOW SETTLES S/SE TOWARD REGION. SURFACE HEATING OF
WEAKLY CONVERGENT AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF VORT LOBE
MOVING E FROM MO SHOULD FOSTER STORM INITIATION INVOF WEAK LOW/FRONT
OVER IL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD THEN EXPAND SWD AND
EWD ALONG FRONT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY FORM IN POCKETS OF
RE-DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IN WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS AS
COOLING ALOFT SPREADS SEWD. RELATIVELY WEAK/VARIABLE WIND PROFILES
SUGGEST PREDOMINANT STORM MODE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR…WITH WEAK
ORGANIZATION INTO CLUSTERS/BANDS. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COULD
PROMOTE SCATTERED HAIL AND STRONG WIND EVENTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
I think it will be the same as the past couple of days. Nothing but pop up storms and that is it.
This seems like one of the most difficult of forecasting times: the afternoon thundershowers/degree of severity. Yesterday afternoon, we were in and outside doing yard “things” in between rain showers. It just seemed like our day to get rain (some decent downpours at one point) on and off all afternoon. It just amazes me all the things in play for a juicy afternoon…
That’s why everyone just needs to pay attention during the summer, so you can be safe, but still enjoy the good weather in between.
What is our percentage of rain today in the middle TN area?
^^^^ Your chances are ALWAYS 50%!
or so it seems.
Cumulous clouds are starting to shoot up and get darker in Robertson County
WE NEED RAIN!! At least here in Hickman County! Our ground is bone dry.. Poor ole garden is looking sorta pityful..
Let it Rain
Let it Rain
Let it Rain
I’m with Ryan, let it rain! My car needs washed.
Stephanie, I never did get your myspace page…
Bring on the rain…
Thanks for the great analysis Davis!
Nothing but sun here all day in Joelton
Well, as of 5:43 pm, the radar is still “snoozing”.
Im not seeing the waking up of radar very much..
Aw come on fellas what part of Davis’ “interesting endeavor” and “tricky” descriptions are you not understanding?
LOL
I do hope for a bit of rain though or else it’s back to lugging the trusty garden hose out in the morning… again!
Dew points seem to be a bit lower around the Nashville area. There is a shortwave to our west moving east southeast, but it appears most of the development is at and above the KY/TN border.
Here are some regional dew points…
Nashville 58
Lebanon 59
Dickson 61
Columbia 62
Clarksville 63
Bowling Green, Ky 65
Central City, Ky 64
Jackson 60
Paducah, Ky 63
Memphis 55
Hey servcrow, looks like those storms north of here come come down our way.
Well maybe not, looks like its going east.
Awfully nice out there now. Kinda wish it’d rain so my complex wouldn’t smell like the mulch they just laid down. Ick.
Clarence, darn it, I forgot to post it up earlier. It’s there now.
I sent you a friend request Stephanie…
Storms appear to be back building just a bit. Trying hard to fill in south to Nashville. Had a strong outflow boundary up my way a few minutes ago. I bet it cooled off 10 degrees.
Thats a nice looking storm south of me and just east of Nashville. Looks like it popped up on this outflow boundary. I just came in from outside and it actually feels cold. Rain cooled air from the storms north and west of us.
Some lightning & very loud thunder here in Hendersonville
Well, I have to admit I had pretty much given up on getting much activity here in middle Tennessee as of 5pm… BUT… we managed to sneak a bit of the Kentucky storm activity into Montgomery then Robertson County. And, Clarence, is right: the outflow from those storms was just enough to pop a few cells in Davidson and Cheatham counties. Donelson/Hermitage area got a pretty good downpour (maybe even an isolated area of small hail)… it is beginning to show signs of breaking up for the evening. Still a few lightning strikes from Gallatin down through west Wilson County. And, yes, what a refreshing outflow!!
Yup, no sooner had I posted on here than it started pouring outside. It was lovely.